Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
RLY options intelligence
STATE STREET MULTI-ASSET REAL RETURN ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
58
Market data through 25 Aug 2026
Checked 26 Aug 2026 00:48 · partial chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
RLY currently carries volatility options pressure with a 58/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 15.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 1.12.
Expected move
15.9%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
1.12
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.00
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+2.7%
RS 1.8
Expected move
15.9%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
1.12
Reference IV
0.62
Max pain
44.00
Underlying
37.83
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
4
Research Brief
RLY has a volatility chain read with 58/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 31.83–43.83; The largest call open-interest concentration is 44.00; the largest put concentration is 44.00. The most active strike by current volume is 44.00.
Priced range31.83–43.83
Call concentration44.00
Put concentration44.00
Max pain reference44.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 31.83 to 43.83. Max pain at 44.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
31.8337.83 ± 6.0043.83
Confirmation level
A close beyond 43.83 or below 31.83 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 58/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation34 × 22%
+7.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility83 × 10%
+8.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 44.00; the largest put concentration is 44.00. The most active strike by current volume is 44.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
44.0016.3%
100
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$6,499Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak44.00+$6,499
Negative peak-No negative strike
Nearest balance-Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
44.0016.3%
+$6,499
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.62
18 Sep
24d
0.38
16 Oct
52d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
44
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
5 stored transitions are available, but none had a directional bullish or bearish label.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing0%
Average expiry move4.4%
19 Aug
Mixed · 27
2.7% through expiry
1.5% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Mixed · 27
4.9% through expiry
1.6% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Mixed · 27
4.9% through expiry
1.7% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Mixed · 27
4.9% through expiry
1.6% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Mixed · 27
4.3% through expiry
1.6% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 25 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 4 / 4
- 100% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $13,100 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price+2.7%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 100% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
1.12
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 12 contracts traded, $12,600 estimated gross traded notional, and 96% of visible notional.
$12,600
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 100 contracts traded, $500 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$500
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
8 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 8 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close37.83
1W+2.7%
RS1.8
Fair value+30.9%
Options pressure100
Speculation34
Volatility83
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 0/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 0/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 0/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:01
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 1.5%
30 Jul 12:54
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 1.4%
31 Jul 12:24
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 1.6%
3 Aug 11:14
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 1.6%
4 Aug 12:25
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 1.7%
5 Aug 12:53
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 1.6%
20 Aug 06:30
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 1.5%
21 Aug 21:11
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 15.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike44.00
Calls · V 100 · OI 100
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts1
Avg IV0.62
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts3
Avg IV0.38
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.62
Put IV-
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV0.06
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractRLY261016C00037000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike37.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractRLY261016P00035000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.06
ContractRLY260918C00044000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike44.00
Volume100
OI100
IV0.62
ContractRLY261016C00026000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike26.00
Volume12
OI-
IV1.08
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.