Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
MVO options intelligence
MV Oil Trust options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
30
Market data through 4 Aug 2026
Checked 5 Aug 2026 11:45 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
MVO currently carries mixed options pressure with a 30/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 419.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.11.
Expected move
419.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.11
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.83
Put-side skew
Trend fit
59
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-11.6%
RS -78.6
Expected move
419.8%
Put-call volume
1.83
Volume / OI
0.11
Reference IV
0.17
Max pain
2.50
Underlying
0.60
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
14
Research Brief
MVO has a mixed chain read with 30/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 0.00–3.10; The largest call open-interest concentration is 7.50; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.
Priced range0.00–3.10
Call concentration7.50
Put concentration2.50
Max pain reference2.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 0.00 to 3.10. Max pain at 2.50 sits inside that range, 319.8% above spot. The theoretical downside extends below zero, so the displayed lower bound is floored at 0.00.
Spot
Max pain
0.000.60 ± 2.503.10
Confirmation level
A close beyond 3.10 or below 0.00 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 30/100
Pressure is 17/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure17 × 42%
+7.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation11 × 22%
+2.3
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement59 × 26%
+15.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility52 × 10%
+5.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 7.50; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50319.8%
0
0
5.00739.6%
0
0
7.501159.4%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$5Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak5.00+$5
Negative peak-No negative strike
Nearest balance-Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50319.8%
+$0
5.00739.6%
+$5
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.17
21 Aug
17d
1.04
20 Nov
108d
0.33
19 Feb
199d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
Comparable strike volatility is unavailable.
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 4 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 14 / 14
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $13,409 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-17
1W price-11.6%
Call premium1%
Put premium99%
Notional split
C 1% / P 99%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.11
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
59/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 15 contracts traded, $6,620 estimated gross traded notional, and 49% of visible notional.
$6,620
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 27 contracts traded, $6,615 estimated gross traded notional, and 49% of visible notional.
$6,615
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 13 contracts traded, $115 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$115
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $59 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$59
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
5 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 5 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close0.60
1W-11.6%
RS-78.6
Fair value-88.5%
Options pressure-17
Speculation11
Volatility52
Trend fit59
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:50
Bearish
Pressure -41
Move 419.8%
31 Jul 21:37
Bearish
Pressure -41
Move 419.8%
4 Aug 10:13
Mixed
Pressure -17
Move 419.8%
5 Aug 10:45
Mixed
Pressure -17
Move 419.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 3 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV0.17
Put-call1.15
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts5
Avg IV1.04
Put-call1.17
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts3
Avg IV0.33
Put-call5.00
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV-
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV-
Skew-
19 Feb 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV-
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMVO260821C00007500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI1
IV-
ContractMVO261120P00005000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractMVO261120C00007500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.50
ContractMVO270219P00002500
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike2.50
Volume20
OI-
IV0.00
ContractMVO260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume10
OI-
IV0.00
ContractMVO260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume10
OI-
IV0.50
ContractMVO261120P00002500
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike2.50
Volume7
OI-
IV0.00
ContractMVO261120C00002500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike2.50
Volume5
OI526
IV0.50
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.