Ticker Options Intelligence

PS options intelligence

Pershing Square Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 35 Market data through 11 Aug 2026 Checked 12 Aug 2026 12:01 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

PS currently carries mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 7.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.07

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.66

Call-side skew

Trend fit 76

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +13.8%

Sharemaestro weekly context

Expected move 7.5%
Put-call volume 0.66
Volume / OI 0.07
Reference IV 0.59
Max pain 40.00
Underlying 37.88
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 150

Research Brief

PS has a mixed chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 35.03–40.73; The largest call open-interest concentration is 40.00; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00.

Priced range35.03–40.73
Call concentration40.00
Put concentration35.00
Max pain reference40.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 35.03 to 40.73. Max pain at 40.00 sits inside that range, 5.6% above spot.

Spot Max pain
35.0337.88 ± 2.8540.73
Confirmation level

A close beyond 40.73 or below 35.03 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 35/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 15/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure15 × 42%
+6.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation10 × 22%
+2.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement76 × 26%
+19.7

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility71 × 10%
+7.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score35.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 40.00; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
20.00-47.2%
6
13
22.50-40.6%
0
299
25.00-34.0%
1
366
30.00-20.8%
7
578
35.00-7.6%
109
176
40.005.6%
1033
42
45.0018.8%
94
1
50.0032.0%
50
0
55.0045.2%
13
0
60.0058.4%
3
0
65.0071.6%
10
0
70.0084.8%
2
0
75.0098.0%
1
0
80.00111.2%
180
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 95% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$122,032Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak40.00+$182,229
Negative peak35.00-$34,534
Nearest balance35.80Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
17.50-53.8%
-$79
20.00-47.2%
-$117
22.50-40.6%
-$9,065
25.00-34.0%
-$9,608
30.00-20.8%
-$24,916
35.00-7.6%
-$34,534
40.005.6%
+$182,229
45.0018.8%
+$14,296
50.0032.0%
+$2,728
55.0045.2%
+$101
60.0058.4%
+$179
65.0071.6%
+$142
70.0084.8%
+$209
75.0098.0%
-$47
80.00111.2%
+$512
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.31× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.59 21 Aug 10d
0.48 18 Sep 38d
0.49 20 Nov 101d
0.52 15 Jan 157d
0.50 19 Feb 192d
0.45 21 Jan 528d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

35
40
45
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
11 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
150 / 150
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

81/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $113,811 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+15
1W price+13.8%
Call premium42%
Put premium58%
Notional split C 42% / P 58% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.07 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 76/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 13 Aug Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · OTM
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 205 contracts traded, $59,548 estimated gross traded notional, and 52% of visible notional.
$59,548
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 303 contracts traded, $28,358 estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$28,358
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 18 contracts traded, $14,635 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$14,635
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $5,550 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$5,550
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $2,100 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$2,100

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Above normal

77

Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank90th
Volume/OI rank90th
IV rank50th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close37.88
1W+13.8%
RS-
Fair value+5.9%
Options pressure15
Speculation10
Volatility71
Trend fit76

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 7.5% muted
30d avg 11.5% · 10 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 0.59 near normal
30d avg 0.57 · 10 sessions 50th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.66 near normal
30d avg 7.01 · 10 sessions 50th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.07 elevated
30d avg 0.03 · 10 sessions 90th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:22 Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 14.9%
30 Jul 10:16 Bearish
Pressure -59
Move 12.5%
31 Jul 10:07 Volatility
Pressure -96
Move 12.2%
2 Aug 10:39 Volatility
Pressure -100
Move 11.6%
4 Aug 10:04 Volatility
Pressure 81
Move 10.4%
5 Aug 10:12 Bullish
Pressure 21
Move 11.7%
6 Aug 10:12 Mixed
Pressure -3
Move 10.4%
7 Aug 10:47 Bullish
Pressure 43
Move 10.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 13
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 299
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 2 · OI 366
Strike35.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 109
Puts · V 16 · OI 578
Strike40.00
Calls · V 287 · OI 1033
Puts · V 0 · OI 176
Strike45.00
Calls · V 15 · OI 94
Puts · V 0 · OI 42
Strike50.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 50
Puts · V 0 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.59
Put-call0.06
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.09
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.49
Put-call18.64
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts28
Avg IV0.52
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts18
Avg IV0.50
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.75
Skew0.28
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.64
Skew0.21
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.66
Skew0.18
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.73
Skew0.34
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.72
Skew0.36

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractPS260821C00040000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike40.00
Volume287
OI1033
IV0.46
ContractPS261120P00035000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike35.00
Volume192
OI248
IV0.66
ContractPS260821P00035000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume16
OI578
IV0.75
ContractPS260821C00045000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume15
OI94
IV0.35
ContractPS261120P00030000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike30.00
Volume10
OI725
IV0.65
ContractPS260918C00045000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike45.00
Volume10
OI10
IV0.42
ContractPS261120C00035000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike35.00
Volume6
OI177
IV0.19
ContractPS260821C00035000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume5
OI109
IV0.01

Evidence context