Likely higher ยท avg analogue +4.65%
Moderate convictionPattern Intelligence ยท SHZ
300491 quant read
The pattern is not clean enough for a strong directional call. The chart needs confirmation.
Unclear ยท avg analogue +6.29%
Low conviction5 of the core evidence blocks are supportive.
A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.
Current weekly tape
Price, trend line, and fair value
Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.
- Close
- 33.27
- Trend Line
- 28.73
- Fair value
- 22.05
Signal stack
What changed underneath price?
Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.
Historical memory
Nearest 4-week analogue returns
Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.
Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues
This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.
What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.
The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.
What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.
Why the model sees this setup
These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.
Price is comfortably above its medium-term trend.
Price is stretched above the current Fair Value estimate.
Market Dynamics are neutral.
The stock is showing relative leadership.
This component is supportive.
This component is supportive.
Closest resolved setups
The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.
| Ticker | Week | Similarity | Outcome | 4W return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300199 SHZ |
2026-06-12 | 0.4884 | higher | +16.38% |
| 688046 SHH |
2026-06-12 | 0.4604 | higher | +42.87% |
| NBX OSL |
2026-06-12 | 0.456 | higher | +9.93% |
| 300661 SHZ |
2026-06-12 | 0.4504 | higher | +11.49% |
| RDCM NASDAQ |
2026-06-12 | 0.4357 | higher | +12.81% |
| 301392 SHZ |
2026-06-12 | 0.4347 | higher | +66.33% |
| 605198 SHH |
2026-06-12 | 0.4339 | lower | -8.49% |
| 301096 SHZ |
2026-06-12 | 0.4249 | lower | -6.15% |
| 2380 SAU |
2026-06-12 | 0.4239 | lower | -3.44% |
| 002940 SHZ |
2026-06-12 | 0.4233 | lower | -2.00% |
| 300721 SHZ |
2026-06-12 | 0.4224 | lower | -4.66% |
| EGTX STO |
2026-06-12 | 0.421 | higher | +14.07% |
What made this setup unusual
These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.
- Trend Signal 0.62857
- Sector structure 0.59734
- Close location -0.47642
- Volume pressure 0.4265