Historically negative · avg analogue -3.80%
Stronger historical leanPattern Intelligence · TOR
IFC quant read
Intact Financial Corporation · Financial Services
The nearest historical setups point to downside risk, and the completed-week chart evidence supports that caution.
Pattern dated 25 Sep 2026 · 4-week historical comparison · Completed weekly prices
Historically positive · avg analogue +1.37%
Moderate historical lean3 of the core evidence blocks are acting as headwinds.
Downside risk is confirmed while price remains below trend and relative strength keeps lagging.
Current weekly tape
Price, trend line, and fair value
Compare the stored pattern with completed weekly prices. The Fair Value line is the latest reference within this chart, held constant across the display.
- Close
- 250.54
- Trend Line
- 267.24
- Fair value
- 252.85
Hover chart for weekly context.
Signal stack
What changed underneath price?
Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.
Hover for standardized signal values.
Historical memory
Selected 4-week example returns
Each bar is a stored example’s subsequent return, ordered by similarity. This selected set differs from the weighted global, sector and industry blend above.
Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.
Outcome frame
How varied were the historical outcomes?
The lower quartile, median and upper quartile of the selected examples. Actual future outcomes can fall outside this historical range.
What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.
The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.
What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.
Evidence stack
Why the model sees this setup
These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the historical read.
Price is below trend, which keeps pressure on the setup.
Price is close to Fair Value.
Market Dynamics are neutral.
The stock is lagging relative strength.
This component is a drag.
This component is neutral.
Historical rhymes
Closest resolved setups
The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the selected-example statistics.
| Ticker | Week | Similarity | Outcome | 4W return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFG NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.6479 | higher | +2.73% |
| DMLP NASDAQ |
2026-06-12 | 0.6196 | lower | -0.71% |
| CHRD NASDAQ |
2026-06-12 | 0.6178 | lower | -13.26% |
| HESM NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.6119 | higher | +0.36% |
| OXYP VIE |
2026-06-12 | 0.6043 | lower | -7.14% |
| LNG NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.6029 | higher | +7.20% |
| EOG NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.598 | lower | -1.87% |
| EPSN NASDAQ |
2026-06-12 | 0.5857 | lower | -6.01% |
| 2220 JPX |
2026-06-12 | 0.585 | higher | +0.32% |
| 9861 JPX |
2026-06-12 | 0.5813 | higher | +8.44% |
| NOG NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.58 | lower | -8.66% |
| KNTK NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.5788 | higher | +1.85% |
| MTDR NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.577 | lower | -5.01% |
| RECV3 SAO |
2026-06-12 | 0.5766 | lower | -6.50% |
| NFG NYSE |
2026-06-05 | 0.5754 | higher | +3.22% |
| ET NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.5753 | higher | +3.09% |
| OKE NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.5743 | lower | -0.74% |
| EOGR VIE |
2026-06-12 | 0.5739 | lower | -2.22% |
| LIN VIE |
2026-06-12 | 0.5733 | higher | +2.92% |
| KRP NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.5731 | lower | -3.67% |
| APD NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.5729 | higher | +6.99% |
| MNR NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.569 | lower | -3.47% |
| LIN NASDAQ |
2026-06-12 | 0.5656 | higher | +1.19% |
| 4091 JPX |
2026-06-12 | 0.5649 | higher | +12.38% |
| KMIC34 SAO |
2026-06-05 | 0.5648 | higher | +1.58% |
| ROGS OSL |
2026-06-12 | 0.564 | higher | +0.35% |
| ARLP NASDAQ |
2026-06-12 | 0.5629 | lower | -2.64% |
| LIN NASDAQ |
2026-06-05 | 0.5626 | higher | +7.63% |
| GEL NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.562 | lower | -3.77% |
| RRC NYSE |
2026-06-12 | 0.5599 | lower | -8.03% |
Distinctive drivers
What made this setup unusual
These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.
- Volume pressure 1.69555
- Sector structure 0.85612
- Momentum context 0.68789
- Next-week expectancy 0.62091
This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when historical rate, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.
Sample audit · Selected examples
How much evidence stands behind the reading?
30 distinct examples across 28 companies and 2 entry weeks. 2026-06-05–2026-06-12.
Median return-0.20%4 weeks after entry
Middle 80% of outcomes-7.23% to 7.24%10th–90th historical percentiles
Largest company share7%Of selected examples
Weight-equivalent sample30.0Accounts for unequal weights, not dependence
The distribution, including losses
< −10%
1
−10 to −5%
6
−5 to 0%
8
0 to 5%
10
5 to 10%
4
≥ 10%
1
0 unchanged outcomes. Bins use equal counts, not similarity weights; positive means strictly above zero.
Does one observation change the story?
- Selected-example mean
- -0.45%
- Without the best outcome
- -0.89%
- Without the worst outcome
- -0.01%
- Non-overlapping within each company
- -0.62% · 28 cases
The two exclusion checks show how much the extremes affect the mean. Companies can still share the same market shock; these checks do not prove independence.
Does the result travel across comparison groups?
The headline 4-week rate blends these stored groups. The selected example chart and one-week calculation use a combined shortlist, so they will not necessarily reproduce that blend.
| Comparison group | Positive rate | Mean return | Matches | Blend weight | Median similarity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | 50.0% | -0.47% | 30 | 65% | 0.58 |
| SectorSame country | 87.5% | 4.76% | 30 | 35% | 0.29 |
Groups can share examples. Their counts must not be added together as independent observations. Similarity measures resemblance, not a likelihood of success.
What would strengthen or weaken this case?
Historical lean meets chart support
Downside risk is confirmed while price remains below trend and relative strength keeps lagging.
Look for the next completed weekly observation to sustain agreement in trend, relative strength and activity.
Similar history, different conditions
If current price and direction oppose the historical lean, keep it as an unconfirmed case. Review the weaker peer group and whether the result depends on extreme examples.
The setup changes
A change in trend, fading relative strength or a materially different pattern can make the old matches less relevant. Recheck the pattern date and the next published reading.
Read the evidence in the right order
1. Compare like with like
Weekly price and indicator conditions are matched with resolved historical setups. Each listing appears once, using its most recent stored reading. Check the date and outcome horizon.
2. Separate frequency from payoff
The headline is a similarity-weighted blend of global, same-country sector and industry results where available. A high positive rate can coexist with large losses. Inspect the median, tails and individual examples.
3. Demand current confirmation
These are descriptive historical matches, not calibrated odds or an independently validated trading edge. Examples may overlap in time, share companies and reflect later data corrections. Costs, liquidity and delisted-company coverage need separate evaluation.