+1.5 points over the latest measured period.
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on August 12?
Crypto expectations are rising at 43.5% on a moderate-quality market. Crypto expectation is steady at 43.5%. 24h move +1.5 pts. 7d move +1.5 pts. Data quality 45/100.
SignalWatchCurrent classification
Signal score41/100Priority across the tape
Market quality45/100Confidence in the read
Volume9.4KParticipation to date
Liquidity6.1KAvailable market depth
Observed range29.5 pts266 snapshots
Market angles
The current setup
Position between the observed low and high.
Share of recorded observations at or below today’s probability.
Dispersion across the latest twelve observations.
Current liquidity relative to cumulative volume.
Time until the listed market resolution deadline.
Probability history
Probability through time
Implied probability across the selected period.
Period low 29.0%
Period high 58.5%
Direction Rising
Spread 0.0 pts
Repricing episodes
The moves that changed the market
Largest recorded probability changes, with the before-and-after price and elapsed interval.
Probability journey
How the market reached today’s price
Key checkpoints from the first observation through the period extremes to the current probability.
Market profile
Signal strength versus theme peers
Each component compared with the median and percentile of other active Crypto markets.
Current signal
Crypto expectation is steady at 43.5%. 24h move +1.5 pts. 7d move +1.5 pts. Data quality 45/100.
Participation
Where participation changed
Volume accumulation and liquidity are separated so their different scales remain meaningful.
Volume9.4KCumulative participation
Liquidity6.1KCurrent available depth
Liquidity / volume64.0%Current depth ratio
Largest volume burst+9010Between recorded observations
Volume accumulation
Largest participation bursts
Liquidity checkpoints
How available depth changed
Market structure
Depth, open interest and spread
Contract structure can confirm a probability move or expose a fragile one.
Crypto context
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Compare related probabilities
Current probability and market quality for the strongest related contracts.
Important context
A probability is a market price, not a promise.
Prediction markets can be wrong, thin, manipulated, poorly specified, or overtaken by new information. Use probability, participation, contract wording and independent research together.