-36.0 points over the latest measured period.
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Energy expectations are falling at 27.5% on a moderate-quality market. Energy expectation is falling at 27.5%. 24h move -36.0 pts. 7d move -36.0 pts. Data quality 44/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.
SignalProbability FadeCurrent classification
Signal score52/100Priority across the tape
Market quality44/100Confidence in the read
Volume9.2KParticipation to date
Liquidity3.3KAvailable market depth
Observed range52.0 pts813 snapshots
Market angles
The current setup
Position between the observed low and high.
Share of recorded observations at or below today’s probability.
Dispersion across the latest twelve observations.
Current liquidity relative to cumulative volume.
Time until the listed market resolution deadline.
Probability history
Probability through time
Implied probability across the selected period.
Period low 27.5%
Period high 79.5%
Direction Falling
Spread 0.0 pts
Repricing episodes
The moves that changed the market
Largest recorded probability changes, with the before-and-after price and elapsed interval.
Probability journey
How the market reached today’s price
Key checkpoints from the first observation through the period extremes to the current probability.
Market profile
Signal strength versus theme peers
Each component compared with the median and percentile of other active Energy markets.
Current signal
Energy expectation is falling at 27.5%. 24h move -36.0 pts. 7d move -36.0 pts. Data quality 44/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.
Participation
Where participation changed
Volume accumulation and liquidity are separated so their different scales remain meaningful.
Volume9.2KCumulative participation
Liquidity3.3KCurrent available depth
Liquidity / volume35.8%Current depth ratio
Largest volume burst+8232Between recorded observations
Volume accumulation
Largest participation bursts
Liquidity checkpoints
How available depth changed
Market structure
Depth, open interest and spread
Contract structure can confirm a probability move or expose a fragile one.
Energy context
View full Energy dashboard →
Compare related probabilities
Current probability and market quality for the strongest related contracts.
Important context
A probability is a market price, not a promise.
Prediction markets can be wrong, thin, manipulated, poorly specified, or overtaken by new information. Use probability, participation, contract wording and independent research together.