-34.5 points over the latest measured period.
Will Texas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
Weather & Climate expectations are falling at 62.5% on a thin market. Weather & Climate expectation is falling at 62.5%. 24h move -34.4 pts. 7d move -33.5 pts. Data quality 21/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.
SignalProbability FadeCurrent classification
Signal score53/100Priority across the tape
Market quality21/100Confidence in the read
Volume95Participation to date
Liquidity30Available market depth
Observed range51.8 pts730 snapshots
Market angles
The current setup
Position between the observed low and high.
Share of recorded observations at or below today’s probability.
Dispersion across the latest twelve observations.
Current liquidity relative to cumulative volume.
Time until the listed market resolution deadline.
Probability history
Probability through time
Implied probability across the selected period.
Period low 45.3%
Period high 97.0%
Direction Falling
Spread 0.7 pts
Repricing episodes
The moves that changed the market
Largest recorded probability changes, with the before-and-after price and elapsed interval.
Probability journey
How the market reached today’s price
Key checkpoints from the first observation through the period extremes to the current probability.
Market profile
Signal strength versus theme peers
Each component compared with the median and percentile of other active Weather & Climate markets.
Current signal
Weather & Climate expectation is falling at 62.5%. 24h move -34.4 pts. 7d move -33.5 pts. Data quality 21/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.
Participation
Where participation changed
Volume accumulation and liquidity are separated so their different scales remain meaningful.
Volume95Cumulative participation
Liquidity30Current available depth
Liquidity / volume31.7%Current depth ratio
Largest volume burst—Between recorded observations
Volume accumulation
Largest participation bursts
Liquidity checkpoints
How available depth changed
Market structure
Depth, open interest and spread
Contract structure can confirm a probability move or expose a fragile one.
Weather & Climate context
View full Weather & Climate dashboard →
Compare related probabilities
Current probability and market quality for the strongest related contracts.
Important context
A probability is a market price, not a promise.
Prediction markets can be wrong, thin, manipulated, poorly specified, or overtaken by new information. Use probability, participation, contract wording and independent research together.