Industrials ยท Specialty Industrial Machinery

KAI relative to MIDD

Kadant Inc / Middleby Corp

KAI is relatively depressed; MIDD is relatively extended against their shared history.

KAI chart โ†—MIDD chart โ†—More KAI pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation -2.06ฯƒHistorical percentile 4
Relationship quality 60/100
Evidence alignment 17/100
Stability 1/10022 centre crossings
Break risk 52/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap extending-1.81ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

KAI / MIDD gap -2.06ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, KAI is extended relative to MIDD; below zero, KAI is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, KAI is extended relative to MIDD; below zero, KAI is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateKAI / MIDD gap
29 Sep 2023-2.50ฯƒ
6 Oct 2023-2.33ฯƒ
13 Oct 2023-2.19ฯƒ
20 Oct 2023-2.23ฯƒ
27 Oct 2023-2.31ฯƒ
3 Nov 2023-1.45ฯƒ
10 Nov 2023-1.40ฯƒ
17 Nov 2023-1.14ฯƒ
24 Nov 2023-0.96ฯƒ
1 Dec 2023-1.19ฯƒ
8 Dec 2023-1.13ฯƒ
15 Dec 2023-1.01ฯƒ
22 Dec 2023-1.04ฯƒ
29 Dec 2023-1.03ฯƒ
5 Jan 2024-1.51ฯƒ
12 Jan 2024-1.42ฯƒ
19 Jan 2024-1.22ฯƒ
26 Jan 2024-1.08ฯƒ
2 Feb 2024-0.45ฯƒ
9 Feb 2024-0.11ฯƒ
16 Feb 20240.77ฯƒ
23 Feb 20240.07ฯƒ
1 Mar 20240.21ฯƒ
8 Mar 20240.21ฯƒ
15 Mar 2024-0.03ฯƒ
22 Mar 20240.19ฯƒ
29 Mar 20240.08ฯƒ
5 Apr 2024-0.50ฯƒ
12 Apr 2024-0.54ฯƒ
19 Apr 2024-0.84ฯƒ
26 Apr 2024-0.79ฯƒ
3 May 2024-1.09ฯƒ
10 May 2024-0.55ฯƒ
17 May 2024-0.68ฯƒ
24 May 2024-0.64ฯƒ
31 May 2024-0.34ฯƒ
7 Jun 2024-0.69ฯƒ
14 Jun 2024-0.34ฯƒ
21 Jun 2024-0.31ฯƒ
28 Jun 20240.09ฯƒ
5 Jul 20240.28ฯƒ
12 Jul 20240.91ฯƒ
19 Jul 20241.07ฯƒ
26 Jul 20241.57ฯƒ
2 Aug 20240.06ฯƒ
9 Aug 2024-0.25ฯƒ
16 Aug 20240.10ฯƒ
23 Aug 20240.34ฯƒ
30 Aug 20240.40ฯƒ
6 Sep 20240.03ฯƒ
13 Sep 20240.68ฯƒ
20 Sep 20240.71ฯƒ
27 Sep 20240.76ฯƒ
4 Oct 20240.71ฯƒ
11 Oct 20240.80ฯƒ
18 Oct 20240.63ฯƒ
25 Oct 20240.35ฯƒ
1 Nov 20241.30ฯƒ
8 Nov 20242.41ฯƒ
15 Nov 20242.34ฯƒ
22 Nov 20242.78ฯƒ
29 Nov 20242.62ฯƒ
6 Dec 20242.55ฯƒ
13 Dec 20241.74ฯƒ
20 Dec 20241.27ฯƒ
27 Dec 20241.32ฯƒ
3 Jan 20251.41ฯƒ
10 Jan 20251.12ฯƒ
17 Jan 20251.59ฯƒ
24 Jan 20251.20ฯƒ
31 Jan 20251.05ฯƒ
7 Feb 20250.99ฯƒ
14 Feb 20251.48ฯƒ
21 Feb 20251.37ฯƒ
28 Feb 20251.22ฯƒ
7 Mar 20251.36ฯƒ
14 Mar 20250.98ฯƒ
21 Mar 20250.46ฯƒ
28 Mar 20250.52ฯƒ
4 Apr 20250.11ฯƒ
11 Apr 20250.55ฯƒ
18 Apr 20250.35ฯƒ
25 Apr 20250.40ฯƒ
2 May 2025-0.13ฯƒ
9 May 2025-0.07ฯƒ
16 May 20250.29ฯƒ
23 May 2025-0.17ฯƒ
30 May 20250.08ฯƒ
6 Jun 20250.49ฯƒ
13 Jun 20250.25ฯƒ
20 Jun 2025-0.15ฯƒ
27 Jun 20250.10ฯƒ
4 Jul 20250.47ฯƒ
11 Jul 20250.52ฯƒ
18 Jul 20250.63ฯƒ
25 Jul 20250.87ฯƒ
1 Aug 20250.49ฯƒ
8 Aug 20251.17ฯƒ
15 Aug 20251.16ฯƒ
22 Aug 20251.07ฯƒ
29 Aug 20250.60ฯƒ
5 Sep 20250.50ฯƒ
12 Sep 20250.38ฯƒ
19 Sep 20250.13ฯƒ
26 Sep 20250.10ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-0.02ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-0.73ฯƒ
17 Oct 20250.08ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-0.23ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-0.45ฯƒ
7 Nov 2025-0.67ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-1.01ฯƒ
21 Nov 2025-0.56ฯƒ
28 Nov 2025-0.22ฯƒ
5 Dec 2025-0.15ฯƒ
12 Dec 2025-0.59ฯƒ
19 Dec 2025-0.69ฯƒ
26 Dec 2025-0.62ฯƒ
2 Jan 2026-0.85ฯƒ
9 Jan 2026-0.02ฯƒ
16 Jan 20260.36ฯƒ
23 Jan 20260.37ฯƒ
30 Jan 20260.29ฯƒ
6 Feb 20260.56ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.25ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.48ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.28ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.47ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.12ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.14ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.12ฯƒ
3 Apr 2026-0.35ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.50ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.67ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.19ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.54ฯƒ
8 May 20260.37ฯƒ
15 May 20260.30ฯƒ
22 May 20260.23ฯƒ
29 May 20260.05ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.71ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-1.15ฯƒ
19 Jun 2026-0.77ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.22ฯƒ
3 Jul 2026-0.70ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-1.82ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-1.25ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-1.23ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-1.36ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-0.54ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-0.15ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-0.65ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-0.90ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-0.97ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-1.90ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-2.06ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

KAI 119.13MIDD 136.48
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 100.0125.0150.0175.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateKAIMIDD
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 2023100.7597.24
13 Oct 2023100.7193.57
20 Oct 202398.9890.38
27 Oct 202396.7787.58
3 Nov 2023108.4991.73
10 Nov 2023110.0993.91
17 Nov 2023114.9597.48
24 Nov 2023117.5197.84
1 Dec 2023116.45101.89
8 Dec 2023118.95105.63
15 Dec 2023123.53112.20
22 Dec 2023124.19114.60
29 Dec 2023124.43114.98
5 Jan 2024114.99107.79
12 Jan 2024116.75109.16
19 Jan 2024119.97110.66
26 Jan 2024121.82110.41
2 Feb 2024131.15111.81
9 Feb 2024137.22113.85
16 Feb 2024150.69112.92
23 Feb 2024142.89119.80
1 Mar 2024145.32120.43
8 Mar 2024145.32120.21
15 Mar 2024141.24119.84
22 Mar 2024145.05120.62
29 Mar 2024145.81125.62
5 Apr 2024133.19117.76
12 Apr 2024130.69113.61
19 Apr 2024125.45111.41
26 Apr 2024125.62110.35
3 May 2024121.21109.44
10 May 2024127.92107.88
17 May 2024124.13103.97
24 May 2024121.5597.45
31 May 2024127.24100.71
7 Jun 2024121.2698.35
14 Jun 2024125.1696.70
21 Jun 2024126.4298.36
28 Jun 2024130.7095.79
5 Jul 2024132.0493.07
12 Jul 2024144.4698.05
19 Jul 2024147.7899.16
26 Jul 2024158.46102.90
2 Aug 2024137.86109.94
9 Aug 2024131.22106.11
16 Aug 2024137.92108.94
23 Aug 2024142.62110.98
30 Aug 2024143.01109.86
6 Sep 2024134.09103.67
13 Sep 2024144.10103.75
20 Sep 2024148.28110.40
27 Sep 2024149.22110.71
4 Oct 2024145.30105.06
11 Oct 2024146.28104.12
18 Oct 2024146.25109.14
25 Oct 2024141.06107.54
1 Nov 2024153.07101.69
8 Nov 2024178.23109.62
15 Nov 2024174.69106.25
22 Nov 2024186.78111.06
29 Nov 2024184.01112.02
6 Dec 2024181.95110.94
13 Dec 2024164.91108.40
20 Dec 2024154.71105.25
27 Dec 2024156.38106.70
3 Jan 2025156.91104.97
10 Jan 2025152.14105.08
17 Jan 2025163.76110.96
24 Jan 2025168.59132.59
31 Jan 2025166.38133.70
7 Feb 2025162.78128.81
14 Feb 2025173.33131.51
21 Feb 2025170.67130.52
28 Feb 2025167.09129.23
7 Mar 2025167.84125.68
14 Mar 2025157.26118.49
21 Mar 2025149.60120.63
28 Mar 2025149.90119.34
4 Apr 2025136.38105.83
11 Apr 2025141.89103.27
18 Apr 2025136.3999.15
25 Apr 2025138.97102.20
2 May 2025134.04108.26
9 May 2025135.42109.00
16 May 2025145.62118.35
23 May 2025136.26113.90
30 May 2025140.21114.16
6 Jun 2025147.20115.02
13 Jun 2025140.90110.31
20 Jun 2025134.94110.54
27 Jun 2025140.04113.23
4 Jul 2025147.34116.12
11 Jul 2025148.60116.80
18 Jul 2025149.20114.44
25 Jul 2025154.42116.95
1 Aug 2025144.89110.73
8 Aug 2025145.8893.52
15 Aug 2025151.84103.60
22 Aug 2025152.42107.27
29 Aug 2025144.54106.91
5 Sep 2025146.18112.84
12 Sep 2025140.17105.15
19 Sep 2025136.57105.35
26 Sep 2025135.33103.91
3 Oct 2025135.69108.28
10 Oct 2025121.99100.88
17 Oct 2025135.18104.21
24 Oct 2025130.26103.62
31 Oct 2025123.8497.06
7 Nov 2025120.4496.25
14 Nov 2025114.1192.22
21 Nov 2025119.7491.87
28 Nov 2025124.4992.34
5 Dec 2025128.9398.65
12 Dec 2025130.81115.44
19 Dec 2025129.34115.34
26 Dec 2025131.57118.06
2 Jan 2026128.20117.79
9 Jan 2026143.05123.20
16 Jan 2026145.61116.04
23 Jan 2026144.87114.35
30 Jan 2026143.86114.98
6 Feb 2026153.75125.87
13 Feb 2026149.67128.07
20 Feb 2026152.32125.61
27 Feb 2026151.99131.92
6 Mar 2026148.26117.80
13 Mar 2026136.07111.78
20 Mar 2026132.82106.10
27 Mar 2026130.25100.49
3 Apr 2026128.43103.20
10 Apr 2026145.65111.74
17 Apr 2026148.87112.58
24 Apr 2026140.31110.88
1 May 2026128.24108.49
8 May 2026152.00128.65
15 May 2026142.57112.17
22 May 2026143.30115.70
29 May 2026143.19121.10
5 Jun 2026131.57121.04
12 Jun 2026126.57123.83
19 Jun 2026136.44134.58
26 Jun 2026145.43135.44
3 Jul 2026138.47136.81
10 Jul 2026132.03164.91
17 Jul 2026139.52161.93
24 Jul 2026140.13162.73
31 Jul 2026137.95162.37
7 Aug 2026151.47163.49
14 Aug 2026149.94143.32
21 Aug 2026140.60140.37
28 Aug 2026135.59137.05
4 Sep 2026134.03135.83
11 Sep 2026119.47131.65
18 Sep 2026119.13136.48
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

KAI / MIDD gap -1.81ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, KAI is extended relative to MIDD; below zero, KAI is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ-1.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ1.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, KAI is extended relative to MIDD; below zero, KAI is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateKAI / MIDD gap
22 Jan 20261.00ฯƒ
23 Jan 20260.89ฯƒ
26 Jan 20260.73ฯƒ
27 Jan 20260.66ฯƒ
28 Jan 20260.40ฯƒ
29 Jan 20260.75ฯƒ
30 Jan 20260.74ฯƒ
2 Feb 20260.94ฯƒ
3 Feb 20260.78ฯƒ
4 Feb 20260.84ฯƒ
5 Feb 20260.76ฯƒ
6 Feb 20261.19ฯƒ
9 Feb 20260.94ฯƒ
10 Feb 20260.93ฯƒ
11 Feb 20260.67ฯƒ
12 Feb 20260.60ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.63ฯƒ
17 Feb 20260.62ฯƒ
18 Feb 2026-0.07ฯƒ
19 Feb 20260.35ฯƒ
20 Feb 20261.05ฯƒ
23 Feb 20260.56ฯƒ
24 Feb 20260.83ฯƒ
25 Feb 20261.14ฯƒ
26 Feb 20261.05ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.67ฯƒ
2 Mar 20261.13ฯƒ
3 Mar 20261.21ฯƒ
4 Mar 20261.41ฯƒ
5 Mar 20261.53ฯƒ
6 Mar 20261.06ฯƒ
9 Mar 20261.26ฯƒ
10 Mar 20261.05ฯƒ
11 Mar 20261.17ฯƒ
12 Mar 20260.85ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.03ฯƒ
16 Mar 20260.00ฯƒ
17 Mar 2026-0.09ฯƒ
18 Mar 2026-0.29ฯƒ
19 Mar 2026-0.10ฯƒ
20 Mar 20260.00ฯƒ
23 Mar 20260.76ฯƒ
24 Mar 20261.43ฯƒ
25 Mar 20260.96ฯƒ
26 Mar 20260.27ฯƒ
27 Mar 20260.07ฯƒ
30 Mar 2026-0.18ฯƒ
31 Mar 2026-0.05ฯƒ
1 Apr 2026-0.16ฯƒ
2 Apr 2026-0.35ฯƒ
6 Apr 2026-0.39ฯƒ
7 Apr 2026-0.09ฯƒ
8 Apr 20260.68ฯƒ
9 Apr 20260.96ฯƒ
10 Apr 20261.14ฯƒ
13 Apr 20261.31ฯƒ
14 Apr 20261.50ฯƒ
15 Apr 20261.33ฯƒ
16 Apr 20261.19ฯƒ
17 Apr 20261.44ฯƒ
20 Apr 20261.37ฯƒ
21 Apr 20261.02ฯƒ
22 Apr 20260.99ฯƒ
23 Apr 20261.12ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.59ฯƒ
27 Apr 20260.73ฯƒ
28 Apr 20260.42ฯƒ
29 Apr 20260.39ฯƒ
30 Apr 2026-0.39ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.73ฯƒ
4 May 2026-0.61ฯƒ
5 May 2026-0.59ฯƒ
6 May 20261.31ฯƒ
7 May 20261.21ฯƒ
8 May 20260.85ฯƒ
11 May 20260.97ฯƒ
12 May 20260.87ฯƒ
13 May 20261.15ฯƒ
14 May 20260.83ฯƒ
15 May 20260.77ฯƒ
18 May 20260.54ฯƒ
19 May 20260.12ฯƒ
20 May 20260.33ฯƒ
21 May 20260.12ฯƒ
22 May 20260.63ฯƒ
26 May 20261.02ฯƒ
27 May 20260.97ฯƒ
28 May 20260.52ฯƒ
29 May 20260.30ฯƒ
1 Jun 20260.05ฯƒ
2 Jun 20260.38ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-0.11ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-0.53ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-1.08ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-1.12ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-1.35ฯƒ
10 Jun 2026-1.86ฯƒ
11 Jun 2026-1.47ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-1.85ฯƒ
15 Jun 2026-1.36ฯƒ
16 Jun 2026-1.40ฯƒ
17 Jun 2026-1.52ฯƒ
18 Jun 2026-1.21ฯƒ
22 Jun 2026-1.15ฯƒ
23 Jun 2026-1.06ฯƒ
24 Jun 2026-0.86ฯƒ
25 Jun 2026-0.28ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.22ฯƒ
29 Jun 2026-0.75ฯƒ
30 Jun 2026-0.69ฯƒ
1 Jul 2026-1.06ฯƒ
2 Jul 2026-1.09ฯƒ
6 Jul 2026-1.00ฯƒ
7 Jul 2026-1.33ฯƒ
8 Jul 2026-1.47ฯƒ
9 Jul 2026-1.73ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-1.60ฯƒ
13 Jul 2026-1.71ฯƒ
14 Jul 2026-1.24ฯƒ
15 Jul 2026-1.17ฯƒ
16 Jul 2026-0.42ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.57ฯƒ
20 Jul 2026-0.62ฯƒ
21 Jul 2026-0.70ฯƒ
22 Jul 2026-0.67ฯƒ
23 Jul 2026-0.63ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.53ฯƒ
27 Jul 2026-0.65ฯƒ
28 Jul 2026-0.45ฯƒ
29 Jul 2026-0.98ฯƒ
30 Jul 2026-0.74ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-0.77ฯƒ
3 Aug 2026-0.01ฯƒ
4 Aug 20260.35ฯƒ
5 Aug 20260.63ฯƒ
6 Aug 20260.62ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.70ฯƒ
10 Aug 20260.72ฯƒ
11 Aug 20261.54ฯƒ
12 Aug 20261.39ฯƒ
13 Aug 20261.36ฯƒ
14 Aug 20261.46ฯƒ
17 Aug 20261.42ฯƒ
18 Aug 20260.45ฯƒ
19 Aug 20260.80ฯƒ
20 Aug 20260.78ฯƒ
21 Aug 20260.56ฯƒ
24 Aug 20260.53ฯƒ
25 Aug 20260.09ฯƒ
26 Aug 20260.17ฯƒ
27 Aug 20260.28ฯƒ
28 Aug 20260.14ฯƒ
31 Aug 20260.09ฯƒ
1 Sep 2026-0.33ฯƒ
2 Sep 2026-0.23ฯƒ
3 Sep 2026-0.10ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.01ฯƒ
8 Sep 20260.25ฯƒ
9 Sep 2026-0.03ฯƒ
10 Sep 2026-0.30ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-1.64ฯƒ
14 Sep 2026-1.67ฯƒ
15 Sep 2026-1.87ฯƒ
16 Sep 2026-1.67ฯƒ
17 Sep 2026-1.79ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-1.94ฯƒ
21 Sep 2026-1.86ฯƒ
22 Sep 2026-1.57ฯƒ
23 Sep 2026-1.11ฯƒ
24 Sep 2026-1.13ฯƒ
25 Sep 2026-1.14ฯƒ
28 Sep 2026-1.32ฯƒ
29 Sep 2026-1.41ฯƒ
30 Sep 2026-1.62ฯƒ
1 Oct 2026-1.44ฯƒ
2 Oct 2026-1.24ฯƒ
5 Oct 2026-1.38ฯƒ
6 Oct 2026-1.65ฯƒ
7 Oct 2026-1.96ฯƒ
8 Oct 2026-1.81ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowKAIDepressed legMIDDExtended legReturn differenceKAI less MIDD
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-18-0.3%3.7%-3.9 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-15.3%-2.8%-12.5 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-18-12.7%1.4%-14.1 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in KAI / MIDD?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

No pair trade

Do not pair long KAI with short MIDD yet

The earlier relationship is not dependable enough to use the old gap as a trading reference. A large separation can persist when the businesses or their market drivers have changed.

01 ยท Relationship60/100

Stability 1/100 ยท break risk 52/100

02 ยท Separation2.06ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence17/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap extending

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Research the company-specific catalyst before considering a relative-value expression. A relationship repair must be visible first.

Reconsider the pair only after a later publication shows that the relationship has stabilised, break risk has fallen and the completed daily gap is moving back toward normal.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

Until those conditions return, neither leg is a relative-value trade from this research.

A favourable relative move means KAI rises more than MIDD, falls less than MIDD, or rises while MIDD falls. If MIDD outperforms KAI, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

Fading an information-driven move can compound losses because the historical centre may no longer be relevant.

The pair remains unusable while break risk is high or the earlier co-movement has not returned.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long KAI / short MIDD

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for KAI to outperform MIDD; KAI can rise faster, fall less, or rise while MIDD falls. The pair loses ground when MIDD outperforms KAI.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œStand asideโ€ to confirmed convergence. Reconsider only after the pair rebuilds stable co-movement, repeated centre crossings and lower break risk.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study KAI alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in KAI. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and KAI-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving KAI price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study MIDD alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in MIDD. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in MIDD must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

1.68ฯƒ from the centre

Example: KAI +5%, MIDD +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 0.404, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioKAIMIDDNew gap
Both rise5%2%1.68ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%2.05ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%1.67ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%2.44ฯƒ
Current distance: 2.06ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 0.404 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • MIDD Market Dynamics is weakening.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

0.404ร—

A 1% move in MIDD is associated with approximately 0.404% in KAI in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.47

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability1/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life7.3 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings22

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context76/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 1 / 1

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 1 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
100.0%
Median time among resolved cases
2.0 weeks
Largest further extension
0.00ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-30.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-29.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-23.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-18.

Relationship discovered

Published as Information break after the completed 2026-09-18 observation.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context