Financial Services ยท Insurance - Specialty ยท Completed evidence
AGO relative to AXS
Assured Guaranty Ltd is the relatively depressed leg. AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd is the relatively extended leg.
Specific pair strategy
What is the play in AGO / AXS?
This is a relative trade. The result depends on which security performs better, not on whether the whole market rises or falls.
Watchlist pair - not triggered
Possible future structure: long AGO / short AXS
The proposed pair would look for AGO to outperform AXS, but the current evidence does not yet justify treating the gap as a convergence trade.
This is the relatively depressed leg. The case needs it to recover or at least hold up better than the other leg.
This is the relatively extended leg. The case needs it to lag or weaken relative to the long leg.
A favourable relative move means AGO rises more than AXS, falls less than AXS, or rises while AXS falls. If AXS outperforms AGO, the pair moves against the case.
Wait for a completed daily turn toward normal and fresh evidence that AGO is improving relative to AXS. The size of the gap alone is not the trigger.
If the daily gap keeps widening, leave the pair alone rather than averaging into the separation.
Do not use the pair if the completed gap keeps widening, AGO continues to weaken relative to AXS, or the relationship moves into a break state.
The cleaner confirmation is a narrowing spread led by weakness in the extended leg rather than strength in both securities.
Evidence now
- AXS Market Dynamics is weakening.
What would invalidate it?
A fresh strengthening in the extended leg can prolong the separation and increase short-side risk.
Possible setup paths
How the relative-value idea could be expressed
These are research structures, not recommendations or position-size instructions. The current course above determines whether any structure is ready to study now.
Long AGO / short AXS
Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for AGO to outperform AXS; AGO can rise faster, fall less, or rise while AXS falls. The pair loses ground when AXS outperforms AGO.
When it becomes relevantThis is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โWait for the daily turnโ to confirmed convergence. The clearest next checkpoint is a sustained turn from a stable or extending daily gap to a narrowing one.Principal riskRequires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.Study AGO alone if its own evidence confirms
This simpler expression focuses on recovery in AGO. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and AGO-specific news.
When it becomes relevantA stronger case needs improving AGO price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.Principal riskCarries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.Study AXS alone if its support continues to weaken
This expression focuses on weakness in AXS. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.
When it becomes relevantWeakening in AXS must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.Principal riskShort selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.Any practical expression needs an independent review of suitability, portfolio risk, liquidity, current news and earnings, borrow availability and cost, transaction costs and tax.
Relationship gap ยท technical name: standardised residual
How far apart are they compared with normal?
Zero is the pair's historical centre. The outer guides show increasingly unusual departures from it.
This is the relationship gap after allowing for the pair's usual co-movement. Zero is its historical centre; the distance is measured in standard deviations, so different pairs can be compared on the same scale.
The latest gap is 1.26 standard deviations from normal. AGO is the relatively depressed leg and AXS is the relatively extended leg. That is unusual separation, not proof that either security is cheap or expensive.
A move toward zero means convergence. A move farther from zero means the separation is extending and raises the risk that the old relationship is changing.
Common-base price paths
Which security created the gap?
Both paths begin at 100 so their relative movement is visible without mixing different share prices.
Both securities are reset to 100 at the first date. This removes the distraction of different share prices and shows how their completed weekly price paths diverged. It is not a valuation chart.
Since the common starting point, AGO is +38.9% and AXS is +97.7%. The chart shows which price path contributed to the separation; the fitted relationship measure is more precise than the raw visual distance.
For convergence, watch for AGO to catch up, AXS to lose ground, or both. The relationship can close even if both securities rise or both fall.
AGOAXS
Completed daily timing
Is the gap closing yet?
The daily relationship adds timing context inside the slower weekly case. It does not replace the weekly validity checks.
This applies the same relationship to completed daily bars. It is the timing layer inside the weekly case, not a separate trading signal.
Gap extending: The completed daily gap is still widening. The weekly separation may be interesting, but timing has not confirmed a turn.
The first useful change would be for the daily line to stop extending and begin moving back toward zero.
AGO ยท Assured Guaranty Ltd
17/100 evidence score- Market Dynamics
- 0.435 ยท change -0.1
- Trend
- Negative
- Stage
- Stage 4 ยท Declining
- Smart Money
- Neutral
- News sentiment
- Neutral
- Options
- Bearish
AXS ยท AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd
60/100 evidence score- Market Dynamics
- 0.485 ยท change -1.072
- Trend
- Positive
- Stage
- Stage 3 ยท Distribution
- Smart Money
- Neutral
- Short interest
- Crowded
- Options
- Bullish
Relationship diagnostics
Why this pair is on the map
How closely completed weekly returns moved together across the measurement window.
How consistent the fitted relationship remained across earlier and later parts of the sample.
An observed mean-reversion clock, not a deadline or a forecast.
How often the residual crossed its historical centre; repeated crossings matter more than a single fit.
The latest residual's location inside its own completed history.
Stored price, volume and size context only. It does not include a live short locate or cost.
State history
What changed and when
Daily timing changed
Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-08-20.
Daily timing changed
Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-19.
Daily timing changed
Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-08-18.
Daily timing changed
Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-17.
Relationship discovered
Published as Leader rollover after the completed 2026-08-14 observation.
Same-industry map