Financial Services ยท Insurance - Specialty ยท Completed evidence
MTG relative to ESNT
MGIC Investment Corp is the relatively depressed leg. Essent Group Ltd is the relatively extended leg.
Specific pair strategy
What is the play in MTG / ESNT?
This is a relative trade. The result depends on which security performs better, not on whether the whole market rises or falls.
Convergence condition active
Long MTG / short ESNT
Treat the two legs as one relative trade. The idea works when MTG outperforms ESNT, not simply when MTG rises or ESNT falls.
This is the relatively depressed leg. The case needs it to recover or at least hold up better than the other leg.
This is the relatively extended leg. The case needs it to lag or weaken relative to the long leg.
A favourable relative move means MTG rises more than ESNT, falls less than ESNT, or rises while ESNT falls. If ESNT outperforms MTG, the pair moves against the case.
The research trigger is active because the completed daily gap is narrowing while MTG improves relative to ESNT. For a fresh position, require the next completed daily update to continue that move toward normal.
Maintain the case only while MTG continues to gain on ESNT, relationship quality remains usable and the wider evidence does not reverse.
The case fails if the completed gap widens again while MTG weakens relative to ESNT, or if the publication moves into a relationship-break state.
Monitor whether the two evidence paths continue to close together alongside the spread.
Evidence now
- MTG Market Dynamics is improving.
- ESNT Market Dynamics is weakening.
What would invalidate it?
If either leg reverses its evidence path, the convergence case becomes one-sided and less dependable.
Possible setup paths
How the relative-value idea could be expressed
These are research structures, not recommendations or position-size instructions. The current course above determines whether any structure is ready to study now.
Long MTG / short ESNT
Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for MTG to outperform ESNT; MTG can rise faster, fall less, or rise while ESNT falls. The pair loses ground when ESNT outperforms MTG.
When it becomes relevantThis is the clearest expression to study now because both the weekly evidence and completed daily timing agree. Look for MTG to keep gaining relative to ESNT while relationship quality and evidence alignment hold.Principal riskRequires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.Study MTG alone if its own evidence confirms
This simpler expression focuses on recovery in MTG. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and MTG-specific news.
When it becomes relevantA stronger case needs improving MTG price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.Principal riskCarries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.Study ESNT alone if its support continues to weaken
This expression focuses on weakness in ESNT. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.
When it becomes relevantWeakening in ESNT must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.Principal riskShort selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.Any practical expression needs an independent review of suitability, portfolio risk, liquidity, current news and earnings, borrow availability and cost, transaction costs and tax.
Relationship gap ยท technical name: standardised residual
How far apart are they compared with normal?
Zero is the pair's historical centre. The outer guides show increasingly unusual departures from it.
This is the relationship gap after allowing for the pair's usual co-movement. Zero is its historical centre; the distance is measured in standard deviations, so different pairs can be compared on the same scale.
The latest gap is 1.65 standard deviations from normal. MTG is the relatively depressed leg and ESNT is the relatively extended leg. That is unusual separation, not proof that either security is cheap or expensive.
A move toward zero means convergence. A move farther from zero means the separation is extending and raises the risk that the old relationship is changing.
Common-base price paths
Which security created the gap?
Both paths begin at 100 so their relative movement is visible without mixing different share prices.
Both securities are reset to 100 at the first date. This removes the distraction of different share prices and shows how their completed weekly price paths diverged. It is not a valuation chart.
Since the common starting point, ESNT is +46.4% and MTG is +91.2%. The chart shows which price path contributed to the separation; the fitted relationship measure is more precise than the raw visual distance.
For convergence, watch for MTG to catch up, ESNT to lose ground, or both. The relationship can close even if both securities rise or both fall.
ESNTMTG
Completed daily timing
Is the gap closing yet?
The daily relationship adds timing context inside the slower weekly case. It does not replace the weekly validity checks.
This applies the same relationship to completed daily bars. It is the timing layer inside the weekly case, not a separate trading signal.
Gap narrowing: The completed daily gap is narrowing. That supports the weekly convergence case, although it still needs to persist.
Further movement toward zero would strengthen confirmation; a turn away from zero would weaken it.
MTG ยท MGIC Investment Corp
88/100 evidence score- Market Dynamics
- 1.369 ยท change 0.344
- Trend
- Positive
- Stage
- Stage 2 ยท Advancing
- Smart Money
- Neutral
- News sentiment
- Neutral
- Options
- Mixed
ESNT ยท Essent Group Ltd
85/100 evidence score- Market Dynamics
- 1.132 ยท change -0.063
- Trend
- Positive
- Stage
- Stage 2 ยท Advancing
- Smart Money
- Neutral
- Short interest
- Squeeze
- Options
- Mixed
Relationship diagnostics
Why this pair is on the map
How closely completed weekly returns moved together across the measurement window.
How consistent the fitted relationship remained across earlier and later parts of the sample.
An observed mean-reversion clock, not a deadline or a forecast.
How often the residual crossed its historical centre; repeated crossings matter more than a single fit.
The latest residual's location inside its own completed history.
Stored price, volume and size context only. It does not include a live short locate or cost.
2 of 2 non-overlapping historical separations resolved after the relationship was fitted on earlier data.
Median time to return near the earlier fitted centre among the held-out cases that resolved.
The largest further move recorded after a measured held-out separation, before resolution or the observation window ended.
State history
What changed and when
Daily timing changed
Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-20.
Daily timing changed
Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-08-17.
Relationship discovered
Published as Two-sided convergence after the completed 2026-08-14 observation.
Same-industry map