Weekly structural research ยท JKT ยท Basic Materials

NAIK Stage Analysis

Adiwarna Anugerah Abadi Tbk.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close IDR 86.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^JKSE
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Rotation Up ยท Emerging rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

  • The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction -8โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 10/100directional strength
Maturity 14/100lifecycle context
Confidence 71/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Mixedstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -50.1%IDR 172.29 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 97 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-2586.0090.48-0.0193988600Rotation Up-810
2026-09-1892.0091.143.3312892800Rotation Up2041
2026-09-1193.0091.672.5823111600Rotation Up2242
2026-09-0495.0092.072.9021595800Balance3134
2026-08-2892.0092.400.9499559500Balance-214
2026-08-2192.0093.120.2410579000Balance-112
2026-08-1489.0094.03-1.931443600Downward Expansion-2920
2026-08-0788.0095.14-3.923507800Downward Expansion-3323
2026-07-3187.0096.32-3.183052700Downward Expansion-3822
2026-07-2487.0097.27-3.362792200Downward Expansion-4127
2026-07-1788.0098.06-2.741632700Downward Expansion-4634
2026-07-1083.0098.92-5.283604700Downward Expansion-5945
2026-07-0380.00100.07-8.94509900Downward Expansion-6459
2026-06-2681.00101.58-9.48524300Downward Expansion-6573
2026-06-1983.00102.79-12.32416600Downward Expansion-6272
2026-06-1282.00104.14-11.952504800Downward Expansion-6672
2026-06-0575.00105.42-14.646553800Downward Expansion-7969
2026-05-2991.00106.77-6.6614907300Downward Expansion-5633
2026-05-2291.00โ€”โ€”50415600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-1599.00โ€”โ€”31606700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-08101.00โ€”โ€”150762900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-01100.00โ€”โ€”613480900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-2498.09โ€”โ€”38108800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-17101.97โ€”โ€”39476700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-1096.14โ€”โ€”24313900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-0394.20โ€”โ€”9321100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-2793.23โ€”โ€”15189600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-2091.29โ€”โ€”9417600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-1388.38โ€”โ€”36478600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-0696.14โ€”โ€”51388200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-27105.86โ€”โ€”43704300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-20107.80โ€”โ€”35566200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-13104.88โ€”โ€”87132200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-06104.88โ€”โ€”50769000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-30113.62โ€”โ€”109773300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-23119.45โ€”โ€”147241200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-16122.37โ€”โ€”535381100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-09123.34โ€”โ€”130238300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-02115.57โ€”โ€”28216600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-26110.71โ€”โ€”32192500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-19113.62โ€”โ€”47388200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-12117.51โ€”โ€”56312600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-05125.28โ€”โ€”108212100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-28117.51โ€”โ€”51456900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-21123.34โ€”โ€”70647400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-14120.42โ€”โ€”268506500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-07115.57โ€”โ€”42573100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-31116.54โ€”โ€”108279400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-24115.57โ€”โ€”106404300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-17106.83โ€”โ€”105690300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-10120.42โ€”โ€”113735600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-03128.19โ€”โ€”55341300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-26130.13โ€”โ€”117444200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-19130.13โ€”โ€”114668700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-12133.05โ€”โ€”95809400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-05141.79โ€”โ€”87180000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-29143.73โ€”โ€”256564400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-22156.36โ€”โ€”1178094700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-15156.36โ€”โ€”519872100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-08150.53โ€”โ€”56391500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-01151.50โ€”โ€”100906600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-25154.41โ€”โ€”47623200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-18157.33โ€”โ€”54222000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-11157.33โ€”โ€”116066000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-04173.84โ€”โ€”694520500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-27147.62โ€”โ€”78951200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-20156.36โ€”โ€”74471000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-13173.84โ€”โ€”53078000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-06171.89โ€”โ€”66827600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-30173.84โ€”โ€”58302000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-23187.43โ€”โ€”177443800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-16254.44โ€”โ€”52758200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-09337.96โ€”โ€”83959300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-02339.90โ€”โ€”68362300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-25378.75โ€”โ€”82303000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-18387.35โ€”โ€”68985400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-11404.70โ€”โ€”49020200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-28525.14โ€”โ€”98352400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-21549.23โ€”โ€”117981900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-14616.68โ€”โ€”202534800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-07640.77โ€”โ€”111334900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-28479.86โ€”โ€”157306500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-21379.65โ€”โ€”146589900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-14300.63โ€”โ€”167320800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-07277.51โ€”โ€”413084600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-31202.35โ€”โ€”21134700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-24210.06โ€”โ€”67290500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-17210.06โ€”โ€”53991600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-10237.04โ€”โ€”190546100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-03192.71โ€”โ€”30813300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-27185.00โ€”โ€”27861800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-20196.57โ€”โ€”97080500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-13231.26โ€”โ€”130365300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-06237.04โ€”โ€”335410600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-29225.47โ€”โ€”561356400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-22250.53โ€”โ€”1077829300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-15250.53โ€”โ€”811386400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-5.0%
Trend directionFalling-7.7%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-50.1%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+6.2%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-0.0%
Relative strength directionImproving+9.5%
Price momentumNegative-7.8%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.32ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-8 / ยฑ100

-6.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

10 /100

-4.3 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance55
Rotation Up43
Upward Expansion31
Deceleration28
Rotation Down25
Downward Expansion27

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-11-15 to 2026-09-25 ยท 18 classified observations out of 97 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 17%Downward Expansion 67%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Rotation Up2026-09-112026-09-25New-7.5%
Balance2026-08-212026-09-04New+3.3%
Downward Expansion2026-05-292026-08-14Developing-2.2%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing73
Stage 2 ยท Advancing8
Stage 3 ยท Distribution6
Stage 4 ยท Declining92

Legacy result: Stage 1 ยท Stage 1B ยท Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^JKSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
72/100
Current Relative Strength
-0.01
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-7.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+4.3%
Basic Materials regime cohort
25th percentile28 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume4.88ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.32ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity IDR 90.60rising
Slow Activity IDR 89.27falling
Trend Reference IDR 90.48-5.0% close margin
Current Fair Value IDR 172.29-50.1% close margin
Structural low IDR 73.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +7.1%
Annualized volatility +37.9%
From structural high -44.7%
From structural low +17.8%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^JKSE Regime survived Read
Near term0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Intermediate0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context