Weekly structural research · GER · Financial Services

M5S Stage Analysis

H2 Core AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 0.10Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^GDAXI
Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction -30−100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 18/100directional strength
Maturity 100/100lifecycle context
Confidence 60/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -91.6%EUR 1.19 · weakening
Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values · 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-020.100.1905-72.6868871Downward Expansion-3018
2026-09-250.1450.1997-61.9591607Downward Expansion-2821
2026-09-180.180.2105-53.86173818Downward Expansion-2620
2026-09-110.080.2155-80.2429265Downward Expansion-4738
2026-09-040.1090.223-74.3674418Downward Expansion-6252
2026-08-280.090.2282-79.8929008Downward Expansion-6883
2026-08-210.0350.2421-92.307574Downward Expansion-7691
2026-08-140.0350.2582-92.640Downward Expansion-8293
2026-08-070.04250.2761-91.300Downward Expansion-8493
2026-07-310.0750.2946-84.723488Downward Expansion-7989
2026-07-240.120.3122-75.8229660Downward Expansion-6978
2026-07-170.07650.3288-84.850Downward Expansion-8680
2026-07-100.150.3483-71.411427Downward Expansion-7653
2026-07-030.1950.3663-64.771266Downward Expansion-6745
2026-06-260.240.3828-55.663155Downward Expansion-5842
2026-06-190.240.3989-56.89185Downward Expansion-6046
2026-06-120.210.4126-62.592092Downward Expansion-6758
2026-06-050.2240.4278-60.900Downward Expansion-6554
2026-05-290.230.4418-60.943160Downward Expansion-6449
2026-05-220.2360.457-60.20543Downward Expansion-6549
2026-05-150.2220.4708-61.756922Downward Expansion-7152
2026-05-080.300.4857-49.969433Downward Expansion-6249
2026-05-010.250.4997-58.7284058Downward Expansion-6953
2026-04-240.2760.5154-54.75506Downward Expansion-6654
2026-04-170.280.5278-55.4960183Downward Expansion-6756
2026-04-100.280.5412-54.0529567Downward Expansion-6956
2026-04-030.2960.5545-50.299458Downward Expansion-6855
2026-03-270.2980.5691-48.372909Downward Expansion-7356
2026-03-200.350.585-40.30363Downward Expansion-6548
2026-03-130.350.599-43.511224Downward Expansion-6854
2026-03-060.3760.6129-40.276463Downward Expansion-6561
2026-02-270.470.6265-31.008896Downward Expansion-6885
2026-02-200.330.6383-52.14550Downward Expansion-7490
2026-02-130.3040.6548-55.984797Downward Expansion-8995
2026-02-060.2660.6722-61.794830Downward Expansion-9797
2026-01-300.5050.6908-28.376195Downward Expansion-8082
2026-01-230.520.6993-28.1390Downward Expansion-8383
2026-01-160.570.7038-23.181090Downward Expansion-7476
2026-01-090.600.7128-19.74935Downward Expansion-6768
2026-01-020.600.714-18.105507Downward Expansion-6758
2025-12-260.620.7145-15.014460Downward Expansion-6436
2025-12-190.660.7165-9.671860Downward Expansion-3920
2025-12-120.690.7187-5.36100Downward Expansion-3118
2025-12-050.690.7195-4.9424Downward Expansion-3417
2025-11-280.7250.7183-0.371729Downward Expansion-3322
2025-11-210.650.716-9.726887Rotation Down-6044
2025-11-140.6650.7102-13.532377Rotation Down-2938
2025-11-070.6450.7009-17.711601Deceleration-3841
2025-10-310.6850.6909-16.914140Deceleration-2724
2025-10-240.650.6834-24.88370Deceleration-3125
2025-10-170.670.6839-23.732759Deceleration-1030
2025-10-100.720.6826-21.635884Deceleration130
2025-10-030.720.6803-23.93976Deceleration-236
2025-09-260.650.6788-31.141000Deceleration-1337
2025-09-190.680.6851-29.490Deceleration-115
2025-09-120.680.6884-31.334000Deceleration1514
2025-09-050.7350.6921-27.031059Deceleration3318
2025-08-290.7750.6969-25.925557Upward Expansion3821
2025-08-220.770.6983-29.023000Upward Expansion4227
2025-08-150.7650.6978-30.882500Upward Expansion5537
2025-08-080.7850.6974-29.912723Upward Expansion5952
2025-08-010.8250.6964-25.963907Upward Expansion6161
2025-07-250.8250.6891-30.634295Rotation Up6258
2025-07-180.8250.6824-32.823069Rotation Up3439
2025-07-110.8250.6751-34.948258Balance2741
2025-07-040.760.6693-40.735205Balance1824
2025-06-270.6550.6748-51.039950Balance89
2025-06-200.840.6949-37.4111079Balance2919
2025-06-130.6350.7196-54.505429Balance-1410
2025-06-060.6150.7511-58.8711392Balance-1316
2025-05-300.680.7866-55.3313347Balance-1723
2025-05-230.7250.8253-52.9711052Downward Expansion-1423
2025-05-160.7150.8578-55.1915377Downward Expansion-2623
2025-05-090.6550.8876-59.638746Downward Expansion-4534
2025-05-020.6550.9161-60.0320031Downward Expansion-6355
2025-04-250.4760.9443-70.786460Downward Expansion-6781
2025-04-180.3860.9811-75.992021Downward Expansion-8089
2025-04-110.3461.02-78.3321812Downward Expansion-9192
2025-04-040.461.05-72.4629587Downward Expansion-8580
2025-03-280.6651.09-64.4710214Downward Expansion-6472
2025-03-210.631.11-67.759400Downward Expansion-7275
2025-03-140.651.14-67.6722132Downward Expansion-7362
2025-03-070.6751.17-67.364728Downward Expansion-7153
2025-02-280.841.20-59.766394Downward Expansion-4235
2025-02-210.781.24-63.19673Downward Expansion-4337
2025-02-140.791.28-64.101486Downward Expansion-4440
2025-02-070.881.33-59.863681Downward Expansion-4746
2025-01-310.8151.38-63.6713894Downward Expansion-5153
2025-01-240.7551.43-66.682822Downward Expansion-6463
2025-01-170.7551.48-66.741310Downward Expansion-6667
2025-01-100.7551.53-66.4586119Downward Expansion-6887
2025-01-030.6051.59-73.3789934Downward Expansion-7491
2024-12-270.6251.65-73.3218965Downward Expansion-8093
2024-12-200.6051.70-74.665250Downward Expansion-9297
2024-12-130.651.76-74.0512704Downward Expansion-9598
2024-12-060.9251.82-63.8310104Downward Expansion-9089
2024-11-291.261.87-49.826835Downward Expansion-7347
2024-11-221.581.92-36.671705Downward Expansion-2614
2024-11-151.581.96-36.742815Downward Expansion-2418
2024-11-081.681.99-33.271471Downward Expansion-2721
2024-11-011.842.03-27.637740Downward Expansion-2719
2024-10-251.702.05-34.298172Downward Expansion-4029
2024-10-181.612.08-38.854914Downward Expansion-4536
2024-10-111.512.11-42.2821583Downward Expansion-4843
2024-10-041.502.15-42.383242Downward Expansion-5349
2024-09-271.582.20-40.883227Downward Expansion-6256
2024-09-201.502.25-42.081950Downward Expansion-6564
2024-09-131.412.30-45.903000Downward Expansion-7268
2024-09-061.602.36-37.566754Downward Expansion-6874
2024-08-301.362.41-48.6911267Downward Expansion-8494
2024-08-231.472.46-43.926006Downward Expansion-8594
2024-08-161.452.51-43.908912Downward Expansion-9597
2024-08-091.692.56-32.6212506Downward Expansion-9394
2024-08-022.042.61-18.452030Downward Expansion-7774
2024-07-262.022.64-22.414120Downward Expansion-8266
2024-07-192.242.68-12.651400Downward Expansion-6454
2024-07-122.222.70-15.815692Downward Expansion-7156
2024-07-052.282.72-12.041274Downward Expansion-6853
2024-06-282.222.74-13.068996Downward Expansion-7957
2024-06-212.422.73-4.838523Downward Expansion-6252
2024-06-142.522.720.068749Downward Expansion-6574
2024-06-072.322.71-10.491514Downward Expansion-7286
2024-05-312.262.70-12.634490Rotation Down-8492
2024-05-242.422.70-7.650Rotation Down-4675
2024-05-172.422.69-7.790Deceleration-4752
2024-05-102.422.68-8.191911Deceleration-4733
2024-05-032.622.663.413583Deceleration610
2024-04-262.832.6511.142028Deceleration1914
2024-04-192.682.627.540Deceleration-342
2024-04-122.682.606.370Deceleration-436
2024-04-052.682.575.212415Deceleration-331
2024-03-292.502.53-3.317183Deceleration-1733
2024-03-222.502.50-1.762542Deceleration-819
2024-03-152.782.4710.763965Deceleration4028
2024-03-082.992.4320.290Deceleration5749
2024-03-012.992.3821.172018Deceleration5544
2024-02-233.012.3424.561614Upward Expansion5748
2024-02-163.172.2933.861916Upward Expansion7258
2024-02-092.972.2427.586508Upward Expansion5152
2024-02-022.992.1928.9826Upward Expansion6361
2024-01-262.97——655Not yet classified——
2024-01-192.95——6352Not yet classified——
2024-01-123.05——4758Not yet classified——
2024-01-053.15——3933Not yet classified——
2023-12-293.03——5660Not yet classified——
2023-12-222.83——35315Not yet classified——
2023-12-152.87——30163Not yet classified——
2023-12-082.93——19191Not yet classified——
2023-12-012.06——0Not yet classified——
2023-11-242.06——1009Not yet classified——
2023-11-172.14——540Not yet classified——
2023-11-102.14——2579Not yet classified——
2023-11-032.14——266Not yet classified——
2023-10-272.06——2401Not yet classified——
2023-10-202.06——0Not yet classified——
2023-10-132.06——0Not yet classified——
Price vs TrendBelow-47.5%
Trend directionFalling-39.0%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-91.6%
Fair Value directionMoving away-6.3%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-72.7%
Relative strength directionWeakening-7.9%
Price momentumNegative-66.2%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.58×
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-30 / ±100

+32.4 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

18 /100

-33.7 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

M5S Directional State ↗ M5S Momentum Intelligence ↗
Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance51
Rotation Up33
Upward Expansion20
Deceleration44
Rotation Down23
Downward Expansion54

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 140 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 5%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 6%Deceleration 16%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 69%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2025-11-282026-10-02Extended-86.2%
Rotation Down2025-11-142025-11-21New-2.3%
Deceleration2025-09-052025-11-07Developing-12.2%
Upward Expansion2025-08-012025-08-29Developing-6.1%
Rotation Up2025-07-182025-07-25New+0.0%
Balance2025-05-302025-07-11Developing+21.3%
Downward Expansion2024-06-072025-05-23Extended-68.7%
Rotation Down2024-05-242024-05-31New-6.6%
Deceleration2024-03-012024-05-17Developing-19.2%
Upward Expansion2024-02-022024-02-23New+0.7%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 · Basing55
Stage 2 · Advancing0
Stage 3 · Distribution15
Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
76/100
Current Relative Strength
-72.68
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-66.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-75.1%
Financial Services regime cohort
5th percentile20 in cohort
Test M5S trend persistence
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume2.65×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.58×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore M5S Volume & Price ↗
Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity EUR 0.1259rising
Slow Activity EUR 0.1446falling
Trend Reference EUR 0.1905-47.5% close margin
Current Fair Value EUR 1.19-91.6% close margin
Structural low EUR 0.02shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +87.0%
Annualized volatility +258.3%
From structural high -87.6%
From structural low +400.0%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^GDAXI Regime survived Read
Near term24-9.4%-71.7% to +156.5%+29.2%+70.8%-8.9%+95.8%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate7-35.2%-60.9% to -8.9%+0.0%+100.0%-41.2%+85.7%Usable descriptive sample
Extended3-60.1%-68.3% to -33.5%+0.0%+100.0%-70.0%+66.7%Too little matched history
Full cycle1-73.5%-73.5% to -73.5%+0.0%+100.0%-104.5%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context