Weekly structural research ยท JPX ยท Industrials

6366 Stage Analysis

Chiyoda Corporation

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 673.00Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^N225
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction -64โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 46/100directional strength
Maturity 81/100lifecycle context
Confidence 81/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +35.5%JPY 496.58 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-25673.00825.57-28.314065900Downward Expansion-6446
2026-09-18700.00847.23-23.776902700Downward Expansion-4233
2026-09-11693.00868.53-23.148568200Downward Expansion-4535
2026-09-04693.00899.20-24.139213800Downward Expansion-4636
2026-08-28738.00921.90-20.829160000Downward Expansion-4439
2026-08-21696.00940.03-24.721498400Downward Expansion-4948
2026-08-14725.00946.63-24.511963100Downward Expansion-5048
2026-08-07681.00951.57-25.511877700Downward Expansion-6356
2026-07-31659.00957.30-26.372478000Downward Expansion-6972
2026-07-24707.00959.83-21.192560900Downward Expansion-6478
2026-07-17636.00960.77-28.364687200Downward Expansion-7686
2026-07-10685.00962.90-27.612034400Downward Expansion-6981
2026-07-03694.00963.80-27.743708400Downward Expansion-6876
2026-06-26675.00963.73-29.172729600Rotation Down-7378
2026-06-19760.00965.00-22.243674900Rotation Down-3863
2026-06-12708.00962.70-21.646198200Rotation Down-4469
2026-06-05732.00958.07-19.473119800Rotation Down-4468
2026-05-29753.00949.47-16.5835000700Rotation Down-3457
2026-05-22747.00938.00-13.0125652000Deceleration-3653
2026-05-15813.00926.83-1.8653074500Deceleration-1027
2026-05-08993.00912.5718.219269300Deceleration107
2026-05-011,023.00892.2329.7315398100Deceleration1812
2026-04-241,027.00870.6031.3127507400Deceleration2011
2026-04-171,155.00849.9352.5638231800Deceleration2515
2026-04-101,165.00824.7760.4771594800Deceleration3221
2026-04-03977.00799.2046.6250086300Deceleration2524
2026-03-27917.00781.0038.9353470200Deceleration2526
2026-03-201,148.00763.8776.0534968100Deceleration4128
2026-03-131,076.00738.5366.9022795200Upward Expansion4741
2026-03-061,118.00714.7370.8435557500Upward Expansion6463
2026-02-271,323.00689.9794.8024887400Upward Expansion6779
2026-02-201,339.00658.23109.0643715300Upward Expansion6887
2026-02-131,613.00625.50157.9748786900Upward Expansion9698
2026-02-061,374.00582.37138.8940887500Upward Expansion9697
2026-01-301,282.00547.47133.8268055300Upward Expansion9782
2026-01-23894.00515.8766.5718265200Upward Expansion7870
2026-01-16873.00497.5365.2327550200Upward Expansion8271
2026-01-09853.00479.9070.3451975700Upward Expansion8672
2026-01-02735.00462.8054.015933200Upward Expansion7167
2025-12-26735.00449.3754.7920379000Upward Expansion7569
2025-12-19700.00435.8753.2114713500Upward Expansion6881
2025-12-12712.00422.7353.7020264300Upward Expansion7792
2025-12-05692.00409.4352.2423516600Upward Expansion8093
2025-11-28713.00396.7759.3033552900Upward Expansion9598
2025-11-21691.00384.3361.4941825100Upward Expansion9798
2025-11-14569.00372.5029.8624115800Upward Expansion9392
2025-11-07474.00364.779.1126246100Upward Expansion8265
2025-10-31409.00359.63-9.5311946700Deceleration5934
2025-10-24412.00356.37-3.0910772800Deceleration5126
2025-10-17385.00354.27-5.984941400Deceleration3619
2025-10-10383.00352.87-7.337357500Upward Expansion4126
2025-10-03374.00351.10-4.815593500Upward Expansion4635
2025-09-26407.00348.974.594547100Upward Expansion6456
2025-09-19400.00345.903.795169600Upward Expansion6373
2025-09-12398.00343.504.2011185000Upward Expansion6578
2025-09-05431.00341.4317.748517300Upward Expansion8990
2025-08-29403.00338.3711.427275900Upward Expansion8283
2025-08-22388.00335.037.795600600Upward Expansion7478
2025-08-15362.00332.33-0.844386200Upward Expansion5769
2025-08-08375.00330.736.6912333700Upward Expansion7169
2025-08-01371.00328.778.437063800Upward Expansion7049
2025-07-25357.00327.202.9811597800Upward Expansion6226
2025-07-18319.00325.87-3.934544800Upward Expansion179
2025-07-11327.00325.67-0.744286500Upward Expansion4534
2025-07-04334.00325.671.084202900Upward Expansion5347
2025-06-27344.00325.873.484812200Balance5646
2025-06-20344.00325.408.437163100Balance5533
2025-06-13340.00325.338.964892100Balance4019
2025-06-06332.00324.707.034494500Balance36
2025-05-30330.00325.036.177723400Balance-2921
2025-05-23306.00323.770.865988200Balance-1723
2025-05-16313.00322.971.615263300Balance-24
2025-05-09312.00322.301.797970100Balance1810
2025-05-02340.00321.7012.615598200Balance5024
2025-04-25336.00320.6014.266035300Balance4619
2025-04-18337.00319.6317.264340400Balance4921
2025-04-11320.00318.0314.5811579500Balance3820
2025-04-04311.00316.7710.176682800Balance3329
2025-03-28349.00315.9012.325174500Balance6448
2025-03-21343.00314.808.603927200Balance6028
2025-03-14330.00313.206.086447600Balance5019
2025-03-07310.00312.03-0.155904600Balance2112
2025-02-28315.00311.070.444418000Deceleration3328
2025-02-21328.00309.97-0.104988100Deceleration4739
2025-02-14336.00308.301.1510405300Deceleration5427
2025-02-07339.00306.872.8516216900Deceleration4619
2025-01-31303.00305.13-10.063634300Deceleration311
2025-01-24307.00305.00-10.035219400Deceleration1913
2025-01-17314.00304.83-4.792536000Deceleration3016
2025-01-10316.00304.97-6.244177200Deceleration3219
2025-01-03324.00304.10-5.87856600Deceleration3519
2024-12-27317.00302.53-9.265455900Upward Expansion4024
2024-12-20313.00301.60-7.223836000Upward Expansion5435
2024-12-13327.00301.43-5.364245000Upward Expansion6164
2024-12-06340.00302.17-1.095449200Upward Expansion6773
2024-11-29330.00303.10-2.137779100Rotation Up5970
2024-11-22342.00306.370.825607300Rotation Up4561
2024-11-15321.00309.43-6.629139100Rotation Up2836
2024-11-08342.00313.33-3.1515330400Rotation Up1414
2024-11-01292.00317.33-14.513653900Balance-3624
2024-10-25282.00320.50-17.714222900Balance-4623
2024-10-18293.00324.57-17.543892800Balance-2313
2024-10-11294.00328.13-19.253933900Balance-2313
2024-10-04307.00331.27-14.225328900Downward Expansion-2416
2024-09-27307.00333.80-17.395652300Downward Expansion-3124
2024-09-20289.00336.63-18.604715200Downward Expansion-5232
2024-09-13282.00339.23-18.816264600Downward Expansion-4930
2024-09-06285.00341.70-18.187357600Downward Expansion-4626
2024-08-30316.00343.97-15.227028600Downward Expansion-4126
2024-08-23295.00344.67-20.796923400Downward Expansion-5741
2024-08-16295.00345.93-20.795219100Downward Expansion-6045
2024-08-09281.00347.33-18.6315612600Downward Expansion-6551
2024-08-02282.00349.23-20.9416742300Downward Expansion-6559
2024-07-26278.00351.47-26.189020300Downward Expansion-6961
2024-07-19293.00353.57-27.306509900Downward Expansion-6350
2024-07-12287.00354.87-31.209040600Downward Expansion-6849
2024-07-05299.00356.67-28.3511681200Downward Expansion-6247
2024-06-28302.00357.83-25.6621463600Rotation Down-6353
2024-06-21318.00359.43-20.1820575500Rotation Down-3968
2024-06-14290.00360.93-27.9712356400Rotation Down-4375
2024-06-07277.00363.10-31.3912074800Rotation Down-4675
2024-05-31289.00365.30-28.6013406400Rotation Down-4752
2024-05-24308.00367.30-24.7028348300Upward Expansion-3940
2024-05-17349.00368.87-15.539807200Upward Expansion916
2024-05-10368.00369.23-10.0516689200Upward Expansion3328
2024-05-03428.00368.934.074310000Upward Expansion6465
2024-04-26434.00366.505.876546200Upward Expansion6763
2024-04-19438.00364.678.8814119000Upward Expansion7573
2024-04-12462.00363.037.3325106600Upward Expansion9284
2024-04-05387.00360.70-9.257283600Upward Expansion6464
2024-03-29404.00360.47-9.205376800Rotation Up7681
2024-03-22400.00359.47-11.847929200Rotation Up5173
2024-03-15388.00358.50-10.307299700Rotation Up4668
2024-03-08383.00357.73-14.217764000Rotation Up3661
2024-03-01392.00357.77-13.4414511400Balance4551
2024-02-23367.00356.80-18.028225800Balance718
2024-02-16356.00356.10-19.976870800Downward Expansion-2012
2024-02-09353.00355.90-18.0625554000Downward Expansion-3321
2024-02-02337.00355.77-20.854619600Downward Expansion-5336
2024-01-26333.00355.97-21.547173200Downward Expansion-6035
2024-01-19337.00356.67-21.644603700Downward Expansion-5733
2024-01-12338.00357.30-21.194221800Downward Expansion-5939
2024-01-05349.00358.23-13.982581100Downward Expansion-5645
2023-12-29341.00358.77-16.647684700Downward Expansion-5960
2023-12-22332.00358.90-18.576573500Downward Expansion-6863
2023-12-15341.00359.73-16.335616700Downward Expansion-6040
2023-12-08334.00360.27-16.765363200Balance-6837
2023-12-01350.00361.30-16.062998900Balance-2820
2023-11-24363.00363.07-13.853113200Downward Expansion-4328
2023-11-17355.00364.27-16.015274800Downward Expansion-4846
2023-11-10343.00365.60-16.6710446100Downward Expansion-5855
2023-11-03349.00367.57-13.925568000Balance-5448
2023-10-27355.00369.03-10.153157900Balance-4635
2023-10-20360.00370.23-9.902586600Balance-1219
2023-10-13359.00370.87-13.322488500Balance-1011
2023-10-06355.00371.50-10.957532000Rotation Up-410
Price vs TrendBelow-18.5%
Trend directionFalling-14.1%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+35.5%
Fair Value directionMoving away-8.2%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-28.3%
Relative strength directionImproving+0.9%
Price momentumNegative-26.6%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.09ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-64 / ยฑ100

-20.1 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

46 /100

+6.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance27
Rotation Up28
Upward Expansion6
Deceleration61
Rotation Down46
Downward Expansion77

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 30%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 26%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-07-032026-09-25Established-3.0%
Rotation Down2026-05-292026-06-26Developing-10.4%
Deceleration2026-03-202026-05-22Developing-34.9%
Upward Expansion2025-11-072026-03-13Established+127.0%
Deceleration2025-10-172025-10-31New+6.2%
Upward Expansion2025-07-042025-10-10Established+14.7%
Balance2025-03-072025-06-27Established+11.0%
Deceleration2025-01-032025-02-28Developing-2.8%
Upward Expansion2024-12-062024-12-27New-6.8%
Rotation Up2024-11-082024-11-29New-3.5%
Balance2024-10-112024-11-01New-0.7%
Downward Expansion2024-07-052024-10-04Established+2.7%
Rotation Down2024-05-312024-06-28Developing+4.5%
Upward Expansion2024-04-052024-05-24Developing-20.4%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing37
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution33
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4B ยท Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
83/100
Current Relative Strength
-28.31
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-26.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-50.9%
Industrials regime cohort
32th percentile182 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.43ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.09ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity JPY 691.20falling
Slow Activity JPY 743.49falling
Trend Reference JPY 825.57-18.5% close margin
Current Fair Value JPY 496.58+35.5% close margin
Structural low JPY 624.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +7.3%
Annualized volatility +55.2%
From structural high -63.2%
From structural low +82.4%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^N225 Regime survived Read
Near term24+1.7%-8.8% to +12.1%+58.3%+41.7%+0.8%+70.8%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate9+5.5%-3.4% to +23.8%+88.9%+11.1%+2.0%+33.3%Usable descriptive sample
Extended6+0.7%-6.7% to +14.2%+50.0%+50.0%-0.2%+33.3%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle3-0.3%-5.8% to +11.0%+33.3%+66.7%-20.1%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context