Weekly structural research · JPX · Consumer Cyclical

7762 Stage Analysis

Citizen Watch Co., Ltd.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close JPY 2,376.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 26−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 15/100directional strength

Maturity 44/100lifecycle context

Confidence 89/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +98.2%JPY 1,198.57 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	2,376.00	2,211.77	11.81	5417300	Deceleration	26	15
2026-10-02	2,398.00	2,186.32	14.94	7003700	Deceleration	26	23
2026-09-25	2,401.85	2,164.01	19.45	2247500	Deceleration	31	21
2026-09-18	2,318.79	2,146.87	18.81	7950900	Upward Expansion	38	23
2026-09-11	2,185.30	2,126.39	14.76	9925600	Upward Expansion	44	35
2026-09-04	2,583.80	2,109.53	34.63	2073500	Upward Expansion	65	80
2026-08-28	2,709.38	2,069.42	39.69	1236100	Upward Expansion	80	86
2026-08-21	2,529.00	2,023.94	32.73	1449600	Upward Expansion	67	63
2026-08-14	2,751.00	1,985.92	40.15	3261900	Deceleration	84	55
2026-08-07	2,393.00	1,939.74	29.26	947300	Deceleration	51	27
2026-07-31	2,133.00	1,903.29	18.65	1297200	Deceleration	37	25
2026-07-24	2,178.00	1,874.17	21.62	1797400	Upward Expansion	46	34
2026-07-17	2,179.00	1,843.34	23.67	2035100	Upward Expansion	61	52
2026-07-10	2,331.00	1,812.74	24.89	1673300	Upward Expansion	65	64
2026-07-03	2,405.00	1,779.09	27.85	1265400	Upward Expansion	69	66
2026-06-26	2,511.00	1,742.11	35.57	1001300	Upward Expansion	87	80
2026-06-19	2,386.00	1,700.87	26.83	1210000	Upward Expansion	82	81
2026-06-12	2,179.00	1,662.13	26.11	1012800	Upward Expansion	68	80
2026-06-05	2,253.00	1,629.59	30.37	1081800	Upward Expansion	72	89
2026-05-29	2,315.00	1,589.26	35.74	8107900	Upward Expansion	85	93
2026-05-22	2,143.00	1,547.35	32.87	7305700	Upward Expansion	77	85
2026-05-15	2,256.00	1,512.49	45.54	10808100	Upward Expansion	93	86
2026-05-08	1,986.00	1,471.83	26.86	3333000	Upward Expansion	81	61
2026-05-01	1,790.00	1,440.76	21.44	2885400	Upward Expansion	63	54
2026-04-24	1,815.00	1,415.27	23.52	4084200	Upward Expansion	65	57
2026-04-17	1,855.00	1,387.52	29.73	4657500	Upward Expansion	74	62
2026-04-10	1,796.00	1,358.23	29.98	3830300	Upward Expansion	69	58
2026-04-03	1,761.00	1,331.24	37.52	4296700	Upward Expansion	68	55
2026-03-27	1,754.50	1,306.44	37.50	6415200	Upward Expansion	70	61
2026-03-20	1,680.49	1,280.57	32.67	4841900	Upward Expansion	65	66
2026-03-13	1,612.40	1,257.11	27.05	5562900	Upward Expansion	67	68
2026-03-06	1,728.84	1,235.11	32.50	8167400	Upward Expansion	67	88
2026-02-27	1,887.72	1,207.47	37.53	7859700	Upward Expansion	97	99
2026-02-20	1,704.17	1,174.39	29.59	10276600	Upward Expansion	95	97
2026-02-13	1,679.50	1,146.57	28.36	10868700	Upward Expansion	97	92
2026-02-06	1,380.51	1,118.61	11.47	4031800	Upward Expansion	71	67
2026-01-30	1,344.99	1,100.10	10.82	5399700	Upward Expansion	64	65
2026-01-23	1,388.40	1,082.58	13.55	5366000	Upward Expansion	82	71
2026-01-16	1,365.71	1,063.84	11.90	4364600	Upward Expansion	84	69
2026-01-09	1,299.59	1,045.82	10.89	5675300	Upward Expansion	72	64
2026-01-02	1,259.14	1,029.69	11.16	1647900	Upward Expansion	64	64
2025-12-26	1,253.21	1,014.55	10.02	3644300	Upward Expansion	66	67
2025-12-19	1,261.11	1,000.61	13.79	6232500	Upward Expansion	68	86
2025-12-12	1,321.30	986.27	16.45	5501100	Upward Expansion	83	94
2025-12-05	1,295.65	970.08	15.36	8270000	Upward Expansion	85	94
2025-11-28	1,273.94	953.83	14.39	4871900	Upward Expansion	90	94
2025-11-21	1,223.61	937.97	13.90	9841300	Upward Expansion	90	80
2025-11-14	1,202.89	923.85	8.37	11787800	Upward Expansion	93	75
2025-11-07	1,043.03	909.75	-5.68	4336600	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-10-31	1,057.83	900.50	-8.32	7446400	Upward Expansion	66	67
2025-10-24	1,097.30	890.98	0.90	6621700	Upward Expansion	86	79
2025-10-17	1,036.12	883.84	-1.32	7124000	Upward Expansion	69	65
2025-10-10	1,053.88	878.88	-0.76	10068800	Upward Expansion	82	70
2025-10-03	1,025.27	872.93	1.39	37661000	Upward Expansion	79	67
2025-09-26	982.34	868.37	-2.00	6809000	Upward Expansion	64	64
2025-09-19	976.56	863.61	-1.95	9125200	Upward Expansion	66	67
2025-09-12	986.20	858.89	-0.46	22560000	Upward Expansion	68	86
2025-09-05	1,017.05	854.19	6.76	4385200	Upward Expansion	91	97
2025-08-29	978.49	848.74	3.47	3768900	Upward Expansion	86	95
2025-08-22	976.56	845.71	3.53	4876100	Upward Expansion	94	97
2025-08-15	952.46	842.08	-0.72	8457200	Rotation Up	93	97
2025-08-08	899.44	838.51	-2.83	4750500	Rotation Up	53	76
2025-08-01	895.58	836.89	-1.03	4127000	Rotation Up	47	66
2025-07-25	869.55	836.34	-5.59	4814100	Balance	35	47
2025-07-18	840.63	836.53	-5.26	4208100	Balance	-4	11
2025-07-11	825.21	836.90	-6.65	5814400	Balance	-21	11
2025-07-04	819.42	838.32	-8.10	6268300	Balance	-32	14
2025-06-27	826.17	838.83	-8.44	4871900	Balance	-22	12
2025-06-20	825.21	839.06	-4.75	5486900	Downward Expansion	-31	14
2025-06-13	815.57	839.85	-4.65	5836300	Downward Expansion	-32	15
2025-06-06	804.96	840.84	-5.87	11971200	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2025-05-30	834.85	842.59	-3.25	6299300	Downward Expansion	-27	20
2025-05-23	830.99	843.25	-1.80	4215500	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2025-05-16	835.81	844.25	-2.90	5094400	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2025-05-09	807.85	845.73	-5.67	2591100	Downward Expansion	-57	46
2025-05-02	798.21	848.51	-5.33	3186500	Downward Expansion	-59	70
2025-04-25	800.14	851.27	-2.34	3794500	Downward Expansion	-59	72
2025-04-18	779.90	853.99	-2.35	3751900	Downward Expansion	-66	73
2025-04-11	765.44	856.60	-1.12	9955500	Rotation Down	-72	66
2025-04-04	772.18	858.86	-1.02	8715000	Rotation Down	-66	39
2025-03-28	883.05	861.23	2.86	5708300	Balance	55	48
2025-03-21	887.55	860.59	1.94	3985000	Balance	57	43
2025-03-14	875.31	859.66	2.32	9579300	Balance	9	10
2025-03-07	888.49	859.40	4.40	10751800	Balance	-12	10
2025-02-28	839.54	857.68	-1.97	4245700	Balance	-54	44
2025-02-21	834.84	858.33	-6.65	5546300	Balance	-57	35
2025-02-14	845.19	861.15	-6.66	6477100	Balance	-40	16
2025-02-07	853.66	865.13	-5.07	3870300	Balance	-21	10
2025-01-31	887.55	869.45	-3.40	3270300	Balance	6	6
2025-01-24	867.78	873.39	-6.49	4051200	Balance	-10	5
2025-01-17	845.19	877.39	-5.54	3105100	Balance	-38	18
2025-01-10	850.84	880.18	-6.78	4908500	Balance	-31	19
2025-01-03	879.07	883.14	-5.46	938000	Balance	-11	18
2024-12-27	875.31	885.97	-6.90	3294400	Downward Expansion	-25	14
2024-12-20	851.78	887.93	-5.78	3878100	Downward Expansion	-52	32
2024-12-13	867.78	890.23	-5.93	5133700	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2024-12-06	834.84	892.32	-8.64	3944000	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2024-11-29	832.96	895.76	-6.86	3566300	Downward Expansion	-69	64
2024-11-22	848.96	899.11	-5.37	2848000	Downward Expansion	-59	57
2024-11-15	845.19	902.47	-6.76	5118300	Downward Expansion	-62	56
2024-11-08	857.43	905.42	-7.59	3768600	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2024-11-01	854.60	909.97	-4.62	3906800	Downward Expansion	-52	25
2024-10-25	861.19	913.48	-3.71	3050800	Downward Expansion	-37	18
2024-10-18	880.02	915.31	-4.57	3151100	Downward Expansion	-31	19
2024-10-11	891.31	916.63	-5.08	4393200	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2024-10-04	880.96	916.40	-4.04	4000200	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2024-09-27	881.90	917.30	-7.05	5723000	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2024-09-20	858.08	918.92	-4.81	4378400	Downward Expansion	-58	41
2024-09-13	833.27	922.95	-4.93	5595300	Downward Expansion	-67	50
2024-09-06	843.38	926.49	-3.42	7014000	Downward Expansion	-65	53
2024-08-30	863.59	927.59	-6.99	5587200	Downward Expansion	-62	67
2024-08-23	859.92	927.18	-6.88	6536700	Rotation Down	-64	71
2024-08-16	867.27	926.29	-5.43	10401400	Rotation Down	-34	47
2024-08-09	836.95	924.94	-0.91	9148900	Balance	-38	39
2024-08-02	859.00	923.97	-0.96	6785300	Balance	-32	26
2024-07-26	919.63	921.79	0.99	4153400	Upward Expansion	34	24
2024-07-19	964.65	916.39	-0.40	2617400	Upward Expansion	57	60
2024-07-12	983.02	909.27	-1.28	4503400	Upward Expansion	60	57
2024-07-05	1,005.99	900.95	1.74	5230800	Upward Expansion	71	55
2024-06-28	987.62	892.06	3.29	5557300	Deceleration	66	40
2024-06-21	928.82	885.11	-0.22	3754100	Deceleration	35	23
2024-06-14	939.84	880.30	0.44	4095400	Deceleration	46	28
2024-06-07	963.73	875.45	3.48	3790300	Deceleration	51	30
2024-05-31	934.33	870.05	0.98	4609800	Deceleration	34	21
2024-05-24	920.55	865.24	-0.96	3506200	Deceleration	35	22
2024-05-17	930.66	861.51	-0.17	5816800	Deceleration	40	28
2024-05-10	938.01	856.94	2.16	4879000	Upward Expansion	52	35
2024-05-03	933.41	852.82	1.76	2366200	Upward Expansion	59	47
2024-04-26	949.95	848.55	4.51	4229900	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-04-19	933.41	844.50	5.27	5824200	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-04-12	994.05	841.53	5.32	5424700	Upward Expansion	85	68
2024-04-05	960.06	835.91	3.26	9359900	Upward Expansion	77	55
2024-03-29	915.96	830.78	-4.86	5543800	Upward Expansion	50	41
2024-03-22	919.63	827.15	-5.83	7408900	Upward Expansion	64	53
2024-03-15	884.50	821.37	-4.49	9017800	Upward Expansion	64	61
2024-03-08	907.92	817.00	-4.53	10980300	Upward Expansion	67	87
2024-03-01	930.44	814.72	-2.95	7592000	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-02-23	979.08	810.64	4.05	5248200	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-02-16	939.45	804.55	1.33	11970100	Upward Expansion	95	95
2024-02-09	876.40	799.20	-1.45	7509000	Rotation Up	85	85
2024-02-02	851.18	795.36	-1.95	5603200	Rotation Up	50	65
2024-01-26	833.16	792.86	-2.56	5282100	Rotation Up	34	39
2024-01-19	826.86	790.55	-3.54	6132800	Downward Expansion	19	26
2024-01-12	807.94	788.68	-4.43	6252500	Downward Expansion	-15	13
2024-01-05	793.53	787.06	0.35	3472600	Downward Expansion	-46	31
2023-12-29	757.50	785.52	-4.08	4483500	Rotation Down	-60	63
2023-12-22	751.20	786.31	-3.79	8033100	Rotation Down	-34	55
2023-12-15	733.18	784.97	-5.26	9123600	Rotation Down	-47	59
2023-12-08	739.49	784.23	-2.17	9588900	Deceleration	-38	44
2023-12-01	779.12	782.22	0.02	6268500	Deceleration	1	9
2023-11-24	784.52	778.47	0.60	6578100	Deceleration	5	8
2023-11-17	794.43	774.35	2.41	11418000	Deceleration	24	12
2023-11-10	801.64	769.94	7.07	7018300	Deceleration	27	15
2023-11-03	789.93	765.30	8.10	5277700	Deceleration	29	15
2023-10-27	808.84	761.76	14.58	6420200	Deceleration	35	17
2023-10-20	793.53	757.67	12.08	5867600	Upward Expansion	39	23

Price vs TrendAbove+7.4%

Trend directionRising+16.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+98.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-20.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+11.8%

Relative strength directionWeakening-13.1%

Price momentumPositive+32.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.50×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

26 / ±100

-17.9 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

15 /100

-19.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

7762 Directional State ↗ 7762 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance55

Rotation Up21

Upward Expansion51

Deceleration93

Rotation Down30

Downward Expansion19

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 13%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 46%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 20%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	-1.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-09-18	Developing	-8.3%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-08-14	New	+29.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-22	2026-07-24	Extended	+123.0%
Rotation Up	2025-08-01	2025-08-15	New	+6.4%
Balance	2025-06-27	2025-07-25	Developing	+5.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-06-20	Developing	+5.8%
Rotation Down	2025-04-04	2025-04-11	New	-0.9%
Balance	2025-01-03	2025-03-28	Established	+0.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-30	2024-12-27	Established	+1.4%
Rotation Down	2024-08-16	2024-08-23	New	-0.8%
Balance	2024-08-02	2024-08-09	New	-2.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-05	2024-07-26	New	-8.6%
Deceleration	2024-05-17	2024-06-28	Developing	+6.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing1

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution73

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 70/100
Current Relative Strength: 11.81
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +32.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +11.0%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 56th percentile161 in cohort

Test 7762 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.75×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.50×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 7762 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 2,366.70falling

Slow Activity JPY 2,338.28rising

Trend Reference JPY 2,211.77+7.4% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 1,198.57+98.2% close margin

Structural low JPY 1,766.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +9.1%

Annualized volatility +51.9%

From structural high -14.2%

From structural low +133.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	+4.6%-4.2% to +35.1%	+73.3%	+73.3%	+3.6%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+18.1%-8.3% to +38.2%	+62.5%	+62.5%	+4.5%	+12.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+12.6%-9.2% to +53.3%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+12.5%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+33.6%+4.6% to +68.6%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+38.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

7762 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map