Weekly structural research · AMS · Energy

VPK Stage Analysis

Koninklijke Vopak N.V.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 51.10Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^AEX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Re-acceleration watch

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
Re-acceleration watch: Fast Activity is turning upward after a positive-structure recompression.

Direction 85−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 71/100directional strength

Maturity 21/100lifecycle context

Confidence 79/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +34.9%EUR 37.87 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	51.10	45.88	8.25	712897	Deceleration	85	71
2026-10-02	48.14	45.70	3.53	608214	Deceleration	62	33
2026-09-25	46.52	45.58	0.69	465948	Deceleration	34	19
2026-09-18	47.54	45.51	4.59	777828	Deceleration	47	28
2026-09-11	46.42	45.34	2.02	550764	Deceleration	35	22
2026-09-04	47.09	45.20	2.09	110617	Deceleration	41	30
2026-08-28	47.07	45.00	2.08	84748	Upward Expansion	43	30
2026-08-21	46.85	44.77	2.10	75212	Upward Expansion	58	46
2026-08-14	47.05	44.50	1.37	66432	Upward Expansion	62	55
2026-08-07	46.56	44.20	0.79	105438	Upward Expansion	64	65
2026-07-31	48.98	43.91	7.04	280868	Upward Expansion	85	84
2026-07-24	47.02	43.49	3.56	66804	Upward Expansion	65	67
2026-07-17	47.28	43.12	3.98	50263	Upward Expansion	69	57
2026-07-10	46.90	42.73	3.88	56801	Upward Expansion	67	46
2026-07-03	46.30	42.37	2.67	93919	Upward Expansion	60	42
2026-06-26	45.78	42.05	3.62	153273	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-06-19	45.54	41.77	1.39	369877	Upward Expansion	60	54
2026-06-12	45.94	41.44	1.91	90711	Upward Expansion	63	71
2026-06-05	46.56	41.10	7.25	90260	Upward Expansion	69	77
2026-05-29	45.76	40.74	6.17	687337	Upward Expansion	63	71
2026-05-22	46.50	40.47	6.95	452727	Upward Expansion	69	62
2026-05-15	46.00	40.20	9.60	724342	Deceleration	67	40
2026-05-08	44.14	39.91	4.72	1378955	Deceleration	43	23
2026-05-01	42.64	39.68	1.66	785040	Deceleration	27	24
2026-04-24	41.32	39.49	-1.98	1287568	Deceleration	30	24
2026-04-17	40.53	39.36	-4.08	1007489	Upward Expansion	35	22
2026-04-10	42.08	39.19	0.82	853361	Upward Expansion	48	38
2026-04-03	44.67	39.09	10.80	502229	Upward Expansion	65	58
2026-03-27	44.15	38.92	11.57	788727	Upward Expansion	65	62
2026-03-20	43.84	38.77	10.90	1607958	Upward Expansion	68	67
2026-03-13	45.86	38.64	11.64	740952	Upward Expansion	86	90
2026-03-06	44.61	38.44	11.27	787577	Upward Expansion	84	93
2026-02-27	44.48	38.30	6.17	1331353	Upward Expansion	92	96
2026-02-20	42.39	38.17	2.26	677253	Rotation Up	85	94
2026-02-13	41.99	38.03	3.88	745516	Rotation Up	63	86
2026-02-06	41.14	37.95	1.58	582933	Rotation Up	62	81
2026-01-30	40.28	37.90	-1.30	939780	Rotation Up	46	58
2026-01-23	38.75	37.88	-5.09	724823	Downward Expansion	12	26
2026-01-16	38.08	37.92	-7.89	619200	Downward Expansion	-0	10
2026-01-09	37.68	37.99	-7.15	622128	Downward Expansion	-29	21
2026-01-02	36.53	38.05	-8.32	285174	Downward Expansion	-56	46
2025-12-26	35.88	38.13	-7.81	269123	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2025-12-19	35.61	38.23	-9.11	801142	Downward Expansion	-66	40
2025-12-12	35.95	38.30	-8.01	406324	Downward Expansion	-62	37
2025-12-05	36.74	38.33	-7.02	428821	Downward Expansion	-54	38
2025-11-28	37.39	38.31	-5.24	698323	Downward Expansion	-58	57
2025-11-21	35.80	38.24	-7.91	587760	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2025-11-14	35.74	38.18	-10.83	602168	Deceleration	-68	51
2025-11-07	35.70	38.17	-11.18	1010560	Deceleration	-45	31
2025-10-31	37.62	38.11	-8.72	566468	Deceleration	-13	14
2025-10-24	38.33	38.00	-7.92	652262	Rotation Down	-26	23
2025-10-17	37.31	37.96	-8.41	514548	Rotation Down	-21	36
2025-10-10	37.41	37.93	-6.83	768486	Rotation Down	-24	51
2025-10-03	36.80	37.89	-10.48	549840	Rotation Down	-30	49
2025-09-26	37.35	37.88	-7.06	784056	Rotation Down	-22	33
2025-09-19	35.57	37.88	-10.76	2272859	Rotation Down	-20	27
2025-09-12	39.04	37.89	0.04	499506	Deceleration	36	21
2025-09-05	39.55	37.96	2.51	392719	Upward Expansion	42	28
2025-08-29	39.57	38.00	2.78	765202	Upward Expansion	55	39
2025-08-22	40.07	38.04	2.34	520568	Upward Expansion	60	51
2025-08-15	39.75	38.03	3.54	387388	Upward Expansion	55	41
2025-08-08	40.44	38.07	5.98	443834	Upward Expansion	66	45
2025-08-01	40.67	38.03	7.55	825641	Rotation Up	63	41
2025-07-25	38.29	38.03	-0.85	520105	Rotation Up	18	25
2025-07-18	39.52	38.08	1.59	521810	Rotation Up	33	45
2025-07-11	39.59	38.05	0.84	566023	Rotation Up	36	56
2025-07-04	39.73	38.03	2.80	592791	Rotation Up	28	55
2025-06-27	39.99	38.05	2.45	719206	Rotation Up	34	61
2025-06-20	40.09	38.07	4.24	865957	Rotation Up	37	61
2025-06-13	39.38	38.12	1.16	468636	Rotation Up	32	52
2025-06-06	39.11	38.14	-0.04	659493	Downward Expansion	31	36
2025-05-30	38.65	38.15	-0.26	647166	Downward Expansion	-3	21
2025-05-23	37.77	38.14	-1.78	773387	Downward Expansion	-21	20
2025-05-16	36.89	38.21	-5.28	653929	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2025-05-09	36.18	38.27	-4.42	629604	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2025-05-02	35.21	38.37	-6.06	807159	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2025-04-25	34.13	38.49	-6.26	1427960	Downward Expansion	-67	66
2025-04-18	35.50	38.62	-0.11	606212	Downward Expansion	-61	57
2025-04-11	33.82	38.69	-0.93	1107982	Downward Expansion	-75	66
2025-04-04	34.26	38.85	-2.04	922235	Downward Expansion	-78	70
2025-03-28	37.02	39.01	-1.66	845153	Downward Expansion	-60	63
2025-03-21	36.64	39.05	-3.24	1150053	Downward Expansion	-60	70
2025-03-14	36.18	39.10	-3.22	642998	Rotation Down	-67	72
2025-03-07	36.42	39.16	-2.94	803017	Rotation Down	-38	52
2025-02-28	37.32	39.16	-1.46	1296815	Rotation Down	-22	29
2025-02-21	35.89	39.15	-6.61	1551118	Rotation Down	-9	10
2025-02-14	41.18	39.24	6.31	394027	Upward Expansion	56	39
2025-02-07	40.78	39.10	8.33	519236	Upward Expansion	54	37
2025-01-31	40.60	38.98	8.83	494103	Upward Expansion	52	28
2025-01-24	39.83	38.81	9.90	440609	Upward Expansion	45	26
2025-01-17	40.98	38.66	12.18	624770	Upward Expansion	57	31
2025-01-10	39.17	38.44	10.72	537356	Upward Expansion	30	14
2025-01-03	40.87	38.25	16.84	356940	Upward Expansion	48	22
2024-12-27	39.74	38.04	14.89	311054	Upward Expansion	33	18
2024-12-20	38.51	37.87	12.49	1028947	Upward Expansion	32	18
2024-12-13	39.13	37.72	12.53	452509	Upward Expansion	56	39
2024-12-06	40.40	37.55	16.98	594973	Upward Expansion	60	58
2024-11-29	40.60	37.35	19.49	653770	Upward Expansion	65	59
2024-11-22	41.33	37.10	22.50	751279	Upward Expansion	76	51
2024-11-15	39.99	36.86	21.62	664253	Upward Expansion	66	45
2024-11-08	39.48	36.63	19.10	630262	Upward Expansion	61	41
2024-11-01	38.47	36.41	15.36	985448	Upward Expansion	56	41
2024-10-25	39.92	36.20	17.99	497117	Upward Expansion	72	57
2024-10-18	38.60	35.92	13.81	525429	Upward Expansion	56	42
2024-10-11	39.13	35.63	14.07	565215	Upward Expansion	67	44
2024-10-04	38.84	35.31	14.05	719067	Upward Expansion	65	43
2024-09-27	38.01	35.01	11.25	698514	Upward Expansion	59	44
2024-09-20	37.56	34.76	12.48	1205281	Upward Expansion	63	51
2024-09-13	38.76	34.51	16.02	536557	Upward Expansion	69	60
2024-09-06	39.00	34.19	19.73	674272	Upward Expansion	75	62
2024-08-30	38.10	33.73	12.30	497821	Upward Expansion	68	57
2024-08-23	38.27	33.31	14.16	504045	Upward Expansion	73	60
2024-08-16	37.85	32.89	13.40	447059	Upward Expansion	72	62
2024-08-09	36.58	32.48	12.51	580790	Upward Expansion	65	61
2024-08-02	36.97	32.16	14.45	671128	Upward Expansion	67	82
2024-07-26	38.42	31.81	15.59	677292	Upward Expansion	87	92
2024-07-19	37.04	31.43	11.64	610320	Upward Expansion	78	86
2024-07-12	37.15	31.09	7.52	827215	Upward Expansion	86	72
2024-07-05	35.48	30.75	3.91	806602	Upward Expansion	73	58
2024-06-28	35.52	30.48	5.07	775881	Upward Expansion	77	59
2024-06-21	34.37	30.24	1.57	1213261	Upward Expansion	65	54
2024-06-14	33.52	30.00	-0.23	590289	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-06-07	34.59	29.78	2.30	714437	Upward Expansion	69	65
2024-05-31	34.59	29.52	4.54	748083	Upward Expansion	73	67
2024-05-24	33.87	29.31	1.07	689387	Upward Expansion	66	65
2024-05-17	34.13	29.11	2.04	673045	Upward Expansion	72	74
2024-05-10	34.27	28.88	2.74	951246	Upward Expansion	76	69
2024-05-03	33.27	28.65	2.20	681442	Upward Expansion	68	81
2024-04-26	33.98	28.45	4.82	1310004	Upward Expansion	84	92
2024-04-19	33.21	28.26	5.03	992414	Upward Expansion	81	91
2024-04-12	32.73	28.10	0.80	926550	Upward Expansion	84	90
2024-04-05	32.27	27.95	-0.37	838070	Upward Expansion	87	83
2024-03-29	31.45	27.83	-3.03	767597	Upward Expansion	85	84
2024-03-22	30.07	27.76	-6.76	642111	Rotation Up	70	83
2024-03-15	29.34	27.73	-6.48	802707	Rotation Up	38	74
2024-03-08	30.04	27.72	-5.60	723793	Rotation Up	43	67
2024-03-01	30.51	27.70	-3.22	943686	Rotation Up	46	52
2024-02-23	30.02	27.64	-4.78	1078983	Rotation Up	37	34
2024-02-16	28.96	27.64	-8.41	1479682	Rotation Up	-14	15
2024-02-09	25.41	27.72	-19.02	533868	Downward Expansion	-72	80
2024-02-02	25.38	27.91	-16.38	705759	Downward Expansion	-75	75
2024-01-26	25.64	28.04	-15.08	1205945	Downward Expansion	-75	70
2024-01-19	25.75	28.15	-10.48	637678	Downward Expansion	-76	63
2024-01-12	26.75	28.23	-7.29	715652	Downward Expansion	-58	49
2024-01-05	26.72	28.32	-6.94	584098	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2023-12-29	26.80	28.39	-7.61	372820	Downward Expansion	-59	40
2023-12-22	26.89	28.48	-7.12	686025	Downward Expansion	-59	32
2023-12-15	26.94	28.53	-7.85	946466	Downward Expansion	-60	32
2023-12-08	27.57	28.61	-4.26	615098	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2023-12-01	28.04	28.69	-1.20	725202	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2023-11-24	27.19	28.76	-3.30	472524	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2023-11-17	26.99	28.87	-2.99	631296	Downward Expansion	-64	40
2023-11-10	26.81	28.94	-1.86	602328	Downward Expansion	-71	43
2023-11-03	28.20	29.03	4.97	538740	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2023-10-27	28.09	29.02	8.44	855826	Downward Expansion	-60	62
2023-10-20	27.18	29.00	5.43	491622	Downward Expansion	-68	69

Price vs TrendAbove+11.4%

Trend directionRising+4.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+34.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+5.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+8.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+4.4%

Price momentumPositive+21.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.13×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

85 / ±100

+49.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

71 /100

+48.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

VPK Directional State ↗ VPK Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance25

Rotation Up71

Upward Expansion84

Deceleration50

Rotation Down11

Downward Expansion13

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 48%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 25%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-04	2026-10-09	Developing	+8.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-22	2026-08-28	Established	+1.2%
Deceleration	2026-04-24	2026-05-15	New	+11.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-04-17	Developing	-8.9%
Rotation Up	2026-01-30	2026-02-20	New	+5.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-01-23	Developing	+8.2%
Deceleration	2025-10-31	2025-11-14	New	-5.0%
Rotation Down	2025-09-19	2025-10-24	Developing	+7.8%
Deceleration	2025-09-12	2025-09-12	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-09-05	Developing	-2.2%
Rotation Up	2025-06-13	2025-08-01	Developing	+3.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-21	2025-06-06	Developing	+6.8%
Rotation Down	2025-02-21	2025-03-14	New	+0.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-29	2025-02-14	Extended	+30.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing17

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution60

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AEX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 89/100
Current Relative Strength: 8.25
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +21.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +9.5%
Energy regime cohort: 100th percentile1 in cohort

Test VPK trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.59×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.13×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore VPK Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 48.61rising

Slow Activity EUR 46.84rising

Trend Reference EUR 45.88+11.4% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 37.87+34.9% close margin

Structural low EUR 40.28shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +3.0%

Annualized volatility +17.9%

From structural high -0.8%

From structural low +45.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AEX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	6	+0.8%-4.8% to +12.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.1%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	-3.6%-7.9% to +13.8%	+33.3%	+33.3%	+0.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+4.6%-8.3% to +17.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+16.5%+14.2% to +18.9%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-3.4%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

VPK Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map