Weekly structural research · IST · Basic Materials

MERCN Stage Analysis

Mercan Kimya Sanayi Ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close TRY 14.41Tenure DevelopingBenchmark XU100.IS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Structural failure

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -82−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 86/100directional strength

Maturity 30/100lifecycle context

Confidence 82/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -20.6%TRY 18.14 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	14.41	20.66	-30.73	34419939	Rotation Down	-82	86
2026-09-18	15.17	20.74	-31.20	27679890	Rotation Down	-57	73
2026-09-11	18.96	20.80	-23.18	27858765	Rotation Down	-36	57
2026-09-04	16.92	20.83	-30.86	15568913	Rotation Down	-45	66
2026-08-28	18.12	20.85	-31.33	22643946	Rotation Down	-39	56
2026-08-21	20.18	20.78	-24.73	4675298	Deceleration	-24	37
2026-08-14	20.70	20.65	-22.95	1364392	Deceleration	-1	21
2026-08-07	19.50	20.54	-27.53	3101955	Deceleration	3	14
2026-07-31	21.14	20.44	-21.14	2291522	Deceleration	26	15
2026-07-24	23.61	20.31	-16.33	1858591	Upward Expansion	52	32
2026-07-17	25.53	20.05	-10.78	5600370	Upward Expansion	62	43
2026-07-10	24.06	19.75	-18.34	3178362	Upward Expansion	60	49
2026-07-03	24.10	19.54	-19.24	7681968	Upward Expansion	61	57
2026-06-26	25.97	19.35	-12.51	6563812	Upward Expansion	70	66
2026-06-19	27.16	19.04	-11.64	11858018	Upward Expansion	80	54
2026-06-12	22.72	18.72	-21.80	2250009	Upward Expansion	47	32
2026-06-05	23.20	18.54	-18.75	4186811	Upward Expansion	63	39
2026-05-29	21.50	18.46	-24.48	3605988	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-05-22	20.66	18.59	-28.33	22549317	Upward Expansion	63	69
2026-05-15	22.30	18.91	-25.89	45576456	Rotation Up	65	81
2026-05-08	25.44	19.39	-19.55	47060217	Rotation Up	56	78
2026-05-01	23.80	19.52	-21.77	77775492	Rotation Up	52	60
2026-04-24	23.00	19.99	-24.50	71185614	Rotation Up	22	30
2026-04-17	20.08	20.55	-34.92	71144037	Downward Expansion	-0	5
2026-04-10	17.09	21.22	-42.91	20919044	Downward Expansion	-55	40
2026-04-03	16.36	21.83	-41.29	13667702	Downward Expansion	-63	47
2026-03-27	16.20	22.75	-41.29	13514763	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2026-03-20	17.00	23.55	-40.55	8669166	Downward Expansion	-51	43
2026-03-13	17.18	24.47	-40.43	29101876	Downward Expansion	-40	40
2026-03-06	17.74	25.51	-37.16	29440401	Downward Expansion	-46	39
2026-02-27	16.67	26.17	-44.94	31879573	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2026-02-20	17.23	26.77	-44.14	42736073	Downward Expansion	-50	48
2026-02-13	19.59	27.23	-37.71	115991405	Downward Expansion	-50	61
2026-02-06	17.55	27.40	-41.46	39408571	Downward Expansion	-53	76
2026-01-30	16.18	27.62	-47.30	22014592	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2026-01-23	16.28	27.81	-43.70	43381445	Downward Expansion	-67	80
2026-01-16	17.32	27.95	-38.74	36016899	Downward Expansion	-62	71
2026-01-09	16.68	27.92	-38.87	17290673	Downward Expansion	-63	71
2026-01-02	17.00	27.87	-34.00	25962935	Downward Expansion	-64	67
2025-12-26	16.00	27.82	-36.67	19241254	Downward Expansion	-70	73
2025-12-19	16.56	27.82	-34.62	21542441	Rotation Down	-70	79
2025-12-12	17.50	27.85	-30.59	41355834	Rotation Down	-40	72
2025-12-05	18.69	27.85	-23.60	41725883	Rotation Down	-40	73
2025-11-28	16.47	27.87	-31.75	58536193	Rotation Down	-48	76
2025-11-21	17.50	27.95	-27.53	43210709	Rotation Down	-40	71
2025-11-14	17.58	27.88	-24.61	76631561	Rotation Down	-44	65
2025-11-07	20.66	27.92	-14.13	72841697	Deceleration	-38	37
2025-10-31	25.44	28.04	5.62	44415606	Deceleration	-11	23
2025-10-24	30.10	27.90	26.11	93005479	Deceleration	6	14
2025-10-17	36.94	27.62	67.53	67362796	Deceleration	31	19
2025-10-10	29.18	26.96	28.38	109906051	Deceleration	26	19
2025-10-03	38.00	26.53	66.88	51681224	Deceleration	43	32
2025-09-26	39.80	25.75	73.53	45981487	Upward Expansion	48	43
2025-09-19	40.00	24.93	75.79	46245107	Upward Expansion	51	46
2025-09-12	35.40	24.06	73.10	36108126	Upward Expansion	64	60
2025-09-05	44.00	23.32	112.11	23613028	Upward Expansion	71	69
2025-08-29	40.30	22.32	89.77	58083422	Upward Expansion	68	83
2025-08-22	44.60	21.48	113.27	49322478	Upward Expansion	83	94
2025-08-15	48.20	20.53	147.64	75472849	Upward Expansion	99	99
2025-08-08	37.80	19.45	99.00	28907274	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-08-01	34.58	18.71	90.44	24841632	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-07-25	30.90	18.00	75.93	46434150	Upward Expansion	93	94
2025-07-18	24.84	17.38	48.36	28829475	Upward Expansion	76	81
2025-07-11	24.10	16.95	46.36	34506801	Deceleration	72	65
2025-07-04	22.00	16.56	36.78	60591354	Deceleration	51	35
2025-06-27	20.50	16.25	41.13	54762481	Deceleration	40	16
2025-06-20	16.17	16.00	15.35	20580478	Deceleration	-13	18
2025-06-13	15.40	15.90	9.57	14716858	Deceleration	3	15
2025-06-06	15.48	15.83	8.94	7763482	Deceleration	4	13
2025-05-30	15.94	15.78	18.70	11778687	Deceleration	18	13
2025-05-23	17.32	15.73	25.47	17095641	Deceleration	31	16
2025-05-16	17.54	15.63	24.15	19089309	Deceleration	32	22
2025-05-09	19.39	15.50	42.46	30726212	Deceleration	39	23
2025-05-02	18.79	15.31	42.98	35791659	Upward Expansion	43	31
2025-04-25	15.35	15.11	14.65	48234189	Upward Expansion	51	43
2025-04-18	18.75	15.05	42.34	40338523	Upward Expansion	67	81
2025-04-11	24.44	14.85	86.00	31791187	Upward Expansion	93	97
2025-04-04	21.21	14.50	64.23	18925579	Upward Expansion	87	91
2025-03-28	21.67	14.24	64.98	35072653	Upward Expansion	93	89
2025-03-21	17.02	13.97	40.05	31442365	Upward Expansion	73	67
2025-03-14	16.38	13.85	13.08	18018519	Upward Expansion	70	47
2025-03-07	14.74	13.75	4.92	15557356	Upward Expansion	36	18
2025-02-28	15.04	13.68	15.97	16067555	Upward Expansion	41	25
2025-02-21	13.95	13.59	7.73	9440138	Upward Expansion	31	20
2025-02-14	13.26	13.51	-1.01	6199571	Upward Expansion	30	22
2025-02-07	13.81	13.47	1.59	17178921	Upward Expansion	61	67
2025-01-31	15.34	13.40	11.72	9358045	Upward Expansion	63	78
2025-01-24	15.90	13.27	14.32	11190245	Upward Expansion	75	80
2025-01-17	15.95	13.12	15.81	17853933	Rotation Up	78	67
2025-01-10	15.54	12.96	13.27	23579111	Rotation Up	57	30
2025-01-03	13.27	12.82	-5.12	10259604	Rotation Down	-14	31
2024-12-27	12.25	12.76	-12.81	6434909	Rotation Down	-24	47
2024-12-20	12.06	12.73	-12.26	11972404	Balance	-28	41
2024-12-13	12.26	12.73	-15.12	8529504	Balance	-6	19
2024-12-06	12.74	12.74	-12.06	8662306	Balance	4	13
2024-11-29	12.92	12.73	-7.19	18643893	Upward Expansion	24	15
2024-11-22	13.37	12.76	-2.98	16195015	Upward Expansion	38	21
2024-11-15	13.37	12.75	-1.36	36673051	Upward Expansion	54	39
2024-11-08	13.99	12.74	5.58	20813719	Upward Expansion	58	56
2024-11-01	14.17	12.72	10.76	25596888	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-10-25	14.55	12.68	13.78	40075426	Upward Expansion	69	40
2024-10-18	13.64	12.63	8.38	41223688	Rotation Up	48	26
2024-10-11	13.53	12.62	6.63	12891579	Rotation Up	46	23
2024-10-04	12.80	12.64	-1.62	12859028	Rotation Up	15	15
2024-09-27	13.46	12.73	-3.86	12284989	Rotation Up	32	28
2024-09-20	12.96	12.85	-8.99	13616782	Rotation Up	32	32
2024-09-13	13.76	12.98	-1.73	16696894	Rotation Up	34	58
2024-09-06	13.62	13.11	-3.73	14314798	Rotation Up	31	56
2024-08-30	13.40	13.16	-6.13	8309745	Rotation Up	28	47
2024-08-23	13.61	13.22	-3.30	16376117	Balance	16	31
2024-08-16	13.21	13.26	-7.91	16724320	Balance	6	18
2024-08-09	12.77	13.30	-12.11	14230981	Downward Expansion	-19	17
2024-08-02	12.32	13.34	-20.04	13572085	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2024-07-26	11.66	13.45	-27.70	7993067	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2024-07-19	11.93	13.52	-28.38	7154497	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2024-07-12	11.70	13.60	-29.80	10617957	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2024-07-05	11.54	13.68	-29.97	5424617	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2024-06-28	11.40	13.70	-30.09	9091048	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2024-06-21	11.17	13.69	-32.79	3188638	Downward Expansion	-70	80
2024-06-14	11.08	13.69	-32.01	6069899	Downward Expansion	-75	80
2024-06-07	11.68	13.69	-26.54	12749197	Rotation Down	-66	74
2024-05-31	11.40	13.66	-30.61	8355724	Rotation Down	-46	61
2024-05-24	11.82	13.63	-30.51	9194387	Deceleration	-44	47
2024-05-17	12.52	13.59	-26.79	8280959	Deceleration	-35	29
2024-05-10	12.68	13.54	-23.56	14718307	Deceleration	-24	23
2024-05-03	13.61	13.52	-19.16	12451722	Rotation Down	-17	20
2024-04-26	13.18	13.51	-19.84	8282829	Rotation Down	-20	34
2024-04-19	12.97	13.55	-20.36	8256992	Rotation Down	-25	40
2024-04-12	13.42	13.58	-19.65	2037568	Deceleration	-20	34
2024-04-05	13.18	13.52	-20.36	6068575	Deceleration	-21	32
2024-03-29	13.02	13.53	-18.01	9259036	Deceleration	6	22
2024-03-22	13.31	13.51	-16.56	10574540	Upward Expansion	19	17
2024-03-15	13.97	13.50	-10.52	10853188	Upward Expansion	40	28
2024-03-08	15.46	13.45	-4.88	21351606	Upward Expansion	63	57
2024-03-01	17.11	13.33	5.63	33548531	Upward Expansion	71	73
2024-02-23	16.90	13.18	0.94	21384935	Upward Expansion	72	71
2024-02-16	17.56	13.01	5.86	22569093	Upward Expansion	82	66
2024-02-09	15.37	12.82	-5.47	11655641	Upward Expansion	67	46
2024-02-02	14.99	12.68	-4.44	16005160	Upward Expansion	64	44
2024-01-26	14.83	12.52	-2.55	11376197	Upward Expansion	66	57
2024-01-19	14.53	12.35	-1.14	7454151	Upward Expansion	63	62
2024-01-12	13.97	12.19	-5.36	8712172	Upward Expansion	63	70
2024-01-05	15.47	12.04	8.89	12440554	Upward Expansion	78	79
2023-12-29	13.78	11.84	-1.48	10590875	Upward Expansion	61	64
2023-12-22	14.51	11.70	1.65	17022825	Balance	71	54
2023-12-15	13.99	11.48	-7.97	26001088	Balance	52	31
2023-12-08	12.14	11.33	-20.12	14214781	Balance	8	6
2023-12-01	10.97	11.24	-29.32	7478233	Rotation Down	-15	15
2023-11-24	11.37	11.22	-26.83	21533357	Rotation Down	-16	26
2023-11-17	11.13	11.23	-27.89	5175145	Rotation Down	-20	37
2023-11-10	10.71	11.26	-30.31	5890097	Upward Expansion	-21	32
2023-11-03	10.45	11.31	-31.80	6792739	Upward Expansion	-22	29
2023-10-27	10.60	11.32	-31.37	10476415	Upward Expansion	8	17
2023-10-20	11.02	11.31	-27.38	9272931	Upward Expansion	22	13
2023-10-13	11.93	11.35	-27.68	10105950	Upward Expansion	54	36
2023-10-06	13.41	11.28	-22.72	18789803	Upward Expansion	58	42

Price vs TrendBelow-30.3%

Trend directionRising+3.0%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-20.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-69.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-30.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-18.2%

Price momentumNegative-11.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.28×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-82 / ±100

-42.9 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

86 /100

+29.7 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MERCN Directional State ↗ MERCN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance18

Rotation Up9

Upward Expansion19

Deceleration37

Rotation Down81

Downward Expansion95

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 5%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 39%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 14%Downward Expansion 17%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-08-28	2026-09-25	Developing	-20.5%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-08-21	New	-4.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-22	2026-07-24	Developing	+14.3%
Rotation Up	2026-04-24	2026-05-15	New	-3.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-04-17	Established	+25.5%
Rotation Down	2025-11-14	2025-12-19	Developing	-5.8%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-11-07	Developing	-45.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-09-26	Developing	+60.2%
Deceleration	2025-05-09	2025-07-11	Developing	+24.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-24	2025-05-02	Established	+18.2%
Rotation Up	2025-01-10	2025-01-17	New	+2.6%
Rotation Down	2024-12-27	2025-01-03	New	+8.3%
Balance	2024-12-06	2024-12-20	New	-5.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-25	2024-11-29	Developing	-11.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing53

Stage 2 · Advancing16

Stage 3 · Distribution29

Stage 4 · Declining84

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus XU100.IS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: -30.73
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -11.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -12.6%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 71th percentile7 in cohort

Test MERCN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.70×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.28×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MERCN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TRY 16.10falling

Slow Activity TRY 20.65falling

Trend Reference TRY 20.66-30.3% close margin

Current Fair Value TRY 18.14-20.6% close margin

Structural low TRY 13.91shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +17.1%

Annualized volatility +68.7%

From structural high -65.1%

From structural low +3.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs XU100.IS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	7	-0.5%-20.5% to +29.8%	+28.6%	+57.1%	-7.5%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+34.6%-8.0% to +76.9%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+8.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	+20.1%+12.5% to +67.4%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+5.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+25.4%+20.1% to +30.6%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+9.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MERCN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map