Weekly structural research · ASX · Financial Services

EQT Stage Analysis

EQT Holdings Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close AUD 21.85Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Emerging rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction 67−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 77/100directional strength

Maturity 24/100lifecycle context

Confidence 82/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance +100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -15.3%AUD 25.78 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	21.85	18.99	7.02	403190	Rotation Up	67	77
2026-09-18	23.47	18.97	13.95	771168	Rotation Up	58	72
2026-09-11	20.90	18.92	1.14	447420	Rotation Up	32	59
2026-09-04	20.80	18.93	-2.76	598216	Rotation Up	31	50
2026-08-28	19.47	18.98	-10.34	464953	Rotation Up	15	28
2026-08-21	22.10	19.13	1.34	228838	Rotation Up	19	22
2026-08-14	17.65	19.20	-20.18	38661	Downward Expansion	-47	28
2026-08-07	17.43	19.44	-23.20	58781	Downward Expansion	-47	27
2026-07-31	16.85	19.65	-24.34	17420	Downward Expansion	-48	26
2026-07-24	17.35	19.86	-21.30	24664	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2026-07-17	18.33	20.05	-18.08	10730	Downward Expansion	-39	28
2026-07-10	17.95	20.23	-20.73	35303	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2026-07-03	17.23	20.45	-25.14	16310	Downward Expansion	-46	33
2026-06-26	16.00	20.69	-30.70	89694	Downward Expansion	-74	51
2026-06-19	18.77	21.00	-20.39	68016	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2026-06-12	17.83	21.13	-25.05	39902	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2026-06-05	15.70	21.29	-33.39	195598	Downward Expansion	-78	88
2026-05-29	15.83	21.55	-34.44	50834	Downward Expansion	-83	87
2026-05-22	16.23	21.84	-33.02	275325	Downward Expansion	-84	80
2026-05-15	18.68	22.03	-23.55	200111	Downward Expansion	-64	55
2026-05-08	18.46	22.10	-26.17	122710	Downward Expansion	-69	44
2026-05-01	19.52	22.23	-22.59	122484	Downward Expansion	-61	35
2026-04-24	20.22	22.34	-21.11	145563	Downward Expansion	-45	30
2026-04-17	20.59	22.45	-21.86	250565	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2026-04-10	20.33	22.62	-23.63	146192	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2026-04-03	20.01	22.82	-22.33	212758	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2026-03-27	20.11	23.04	-22.13	162644	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2026-03-20	20.37	23.31	-21.16	248000	Downward Expansion	-63	67
2026-03-13	19.37	23.65	-27.37	162927	Downward Expansion	-79	76
2026-03-06	20.43	23.95	-26.20	219628	Downward Expansion	-73	74
2026-02-27	21.27	24.29	-26.78	214872	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2026-02-20	21.83	24.61	-24.55	343393	Downward Expansion	-58	56
2026-02-13	21.26	24.91	-25.83	203151	Balance	-67	50
2026-02-06	22.26	25.23	-21.12	222472	Balance	-48	22
2026-01-30	23.89	25.53	-17.40	75977	Balance	-18	11
2026-01-23	24.11	25.78	-17.07	239498	Downward Expansion	-21	11
2026-01-16	24.86	26.02	-15.39	264639	Downward Expansion	-20	16
2026-01-09	23.92	26.26	-17.31	148549	Downward Expansion	-39	27
2026-01-02	23.17	26.49	-20.38	235387	Downward Expansion	-44	29
2025-12-26	23.03	26.72	-21.60	148210	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2025-12-19	23.75	26.96	-18.27	245425	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2025-12-12	24.48	27.15	-16.88	202134	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2025-12-05	24.32	27.34	-17.15	255839	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2025-11-28	25.44	27.53	-13.44	205966	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2025-11-21	22.62	27.70	-21.49	234659	Downward Expansion	-49	36
2025-11-14	22.74	27.95	-23.40	496000	Downward Expansion	-51	40
2025-11-07	23.52	28.14	-22.44	302150	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2025-10-31	24.41	28.36	-20.87	871144	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2025-10-24	21.94	28.54	-30.27	424194	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2025-10-17	20.67	28.89	-34.57	491314	Downward Expansion	-84	92
2025-10-10	22.50	29.24	-28.97	418569	Downward Expansion	-78	87
2025-10-03	22.74	29.52	-28.88	329511	Downward Expansion	-83	87
2025-09-26	23.45	29.79	-25.37	411797	Downward Expansion	-83	84
2025-09-19	25.86	30.04	-17.94	1409910	Downward Expansion	-74	78
2025-09-12	26.38	30.24	-17.33	247751	Downward Expansion	-72	71
2025-09-05	26.56	30.44	-17.00	239387	Downward Expansion	-74	67
2025-08-29	28.09	30.57	-13.43	560759	Balance	-63	47
2025-08-22	30.53	30.70	-6.05	298355	Balance	-44	26
2025-08-15	28.53	30.72	-11.96	331427	Balance	-54	30
2025-08-08	30.73	30.80	-4.13	70747	Balance	1	4
2025-08-01	30.76	30.76	-2.68	145190	Balance	-5	4
2025-07-25	30.90	30.74	-2.55	108742	Upward Expansion	-2	4
2025-07-18	30.91	30.69	-3.69	106187	Upward Expansion	20	21
2025-07-11	31.25	30.62	-0.78	72187	Upward Expansion	41	40
2025-07-04	31.11	30.56	-1.61	163959	Upward Expansion	41	37
2025-06-27	31.55	30.49	0.74	141950	Balance	42	34
2025-06-20	32.08	30.43	2.50	128751	Balance	47	25
2025-06-13	30.79	30.32	-2.15	170254	Balance	3	3
2025-06-06	29.97	30.30	-4.51	73405	Balance	-6	6
2025-05-30	30.14	30.27	-3.22	116451	Balance	-5	5
2025-05-23	29.54	30.23	-4.46	93347	Balance	-12	7
2025-05-16	30.30	30.23	-1.90	244835	Balance	-6	5
2025-05-09	29.97	30.23	-1.64	113210	Balance	-10	16
2025-05-02	30.53	30.20	0.05	103772	Balance	-9	14
2025-04-25	29.99	30.13	1.67	51828	Deceleration	-10	16
2025-04-18	28.48	30.09	-1.61	85920	Deceleration	-20	16
2025-04-11	30.14	30.06	6.47	170705	Deceleration	23	10
2025-04-04	29.68	29.97	4.72	233981	Deceleration	22	11
2025-03-28	32.45	29.91	10.24	183839	Deceleration	58	29
2025-03-21	31.37	29.77	7.62	1178641	Deceleration	38	18
2025-03-14	30.73	29.67	7.60	308843	Upward Expansion	37	21
2025-03-07	30.90	29.68	6.26	447144	Upward Expansion	53	33
2025-02-28	31.08	29.68	4.22	208070	Upward Expansion	56	38
2025-02-21	31.90	29.72	5.56	174463	Upward Expansion	66	60
2025-02-14	32.12	29.68	3.32	119942	Upward Expansion	73	71
2025-02-07	30.49	29.63	-1.16	158856	Upward Expansion	61	67
2025-01-31	32.21	29.64	4.25	135623	Rotation Up	83	78
2025-01-24	30.91	29.55	1.78	83875	Rotation Up	40	56
2025-01-17	30.96	29.51	3.45	155448	Balance	43	48
2025-01-10	29.72	29.48	-0.18	45303	Balance	10	11
2025-01-03	29.90	29.47	1.22	39495	Balance	-4	5
2024-12-27	29.50	29.48	0.01	39293	Balance	-24	12
2024-12-20	28.76	29.48	0.17	155584	Balance	-33	14
2024-12-13	29.43	29.49	-0.06	130042	Balance	-24	11
2024-12-06	29.06	29.46	-2.62	115111	Balance	-27	13
2024-11-29	29.73	29.46	-0.43	81030	Balance	-9	8
2024-11-22	28.87	29.39	-2.68	130457	Balance	-20	9
2024-11-15	30.19	29.36	3.22	162656	Balance	16	12
2024-11-08	29.15	29.28	-0.30	166932	Balance	5	8
2024-11-01	28.79	29.26	0.77	223501	Balance	3	10
2024-10-25	29.73	29.18	3.03	129078	Balance	8	12
2024-10-18	30.02	29.09	3.33	271820	Balance	8	11
2024-10-11	29.35	29.00	2.01	37399	Rotation Down	-8	9
2024-10-04	28.29	28.93	-0.78	68668	Rotation Down	-18	21
2024-09-27	28.94	28.88	0.75	102973	Rotation Down	-21	40
2024-09-20	27.39	28.80	-4.67	208536	Rotation Down	-29	53
2024-09-13	27.58	28.75	-2.80	138339	Deceleration	-29	37
2024-09-06	27.85	28.67	-0.85	106039	Deceleration	-23	27
2024-08-30	28.21	28.60	-0.50	191914	Deceleration	10	14
2024-08-23	28.22	28.51	0.47	120813	Upward Expansion	23	17
2024-08-16	31.10	28.36	11.64	87340	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-08-09	30.84	28.10	13.85	79599	Upward Expansion	59	48
2024-08-02	32.38	27.84	17.49	327569	Upward Expansion	76	65
2024-07-26	30.81	27.53	12.67	207467	Upward Expansion	63	45
2024-07-19	30.61	27.28	11.68	204408	Upward Expansion	63	43
2024-07-12	30.77	27.02	12.89	73584	Upward Expansion	68	45
2024-07-05	29.56	26.78	10.79	51211	Upward Expansion	56	39
2024-06-28	29.50	26.58	11.71	111117	Upward Expansion	60	44
2024-06-21	30.09	26.36	13.92	81461	Upward Expansion	67	51
2024-06-14	29.60	26.12	13.48	75288	Upward Expansion	64	51
2024-06-07	29.98	25.92	13.28	122963	Upward Expansion	72	60
2024-05-31	29.69	25.68	14.85	67608	Upward Expansion	74	59
2024-05-24	29.04	25.45	12.35	51330	Upward Expansion	70	55
2024-05-17	28.61	25.23	9.78	57840	Upward Expansion	66	52
2024-05-10	28.87	25.04	11.96	64315	Upward Expansion	73	56
2024-05-03	27.70	24.87	9.37	61004	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-04-26	28.06	24.75	11.75	43184	Upward Expansion	68	53
2024-04-19	27.73	24.66	10.82	93231	Upward Expansion	67	53
2024-04-12	28.35	24.57	10.33	99551	Upward Expansion	80	60
2024-04-05	26.53	24.47	3.68	44931	Upward Expansion	64	54
2024-03-29	27.11	24.40	4.38	35146	Upward Expansion	68	74
2024-03-22	27.14	24.30	6.38	62744	Upward Expansion	70	82
2024-03-15	27.33	24.15	8.67	85321	Upward Expansion	79	85
2024-03-08	26.69	24.03	3.95	57992	Upward Expansion	74	80
2024-03-01	26.71	23.94	5.54	106277	Upward Expansion	80	83
2024-02-23	25.96	23.83	4.20	709752	Upward Expansion	73	78
2024-02-16	24.92	23.74	0.07	36815	Upward Expansion	59	70
2024-02-09	26.02	23.68	4.85	110519	Balance	68	70
2024-02-02	25.46	23.57	2.17	94950	Balance	33	39
2024-01-26	23.65	23.48	-3.03	337750	Balance	-17	8
2024-01-19	23.27	23.46	-2.70	177368	Balance	-44	20
2024-01-12	23.10	23.46	-4.23	402762	Balance	-46	23
2024-01-05	23.10	23.49	-3.98	24258	Balance	-36	16
2023-12-29	23.10	23.49	-5.23	28433	Balance	-35	16
2023-12-22	22.88	23.50	-5.08	46258	Balance	-39	16
2023-12-15	23.77	23.50	-0.59	85392	Balance	-1	3
2023-12-08	23.49	23.51	1.73	88607	Downward Expansion	-12	9
2023-12-01	22.88	23.54	0.93	35166	Downward Expansion	-55	30
2023-11-24	22.92	23.58	1.72	43086	Rotation Down	-46	29
2023-11-17	23.55	23.62	4.51	63392	Rotation Down	-29	36
2023-11-10	22.65	23.63	1.67	30518	Rotation Down	-35	44
2023-11-03	22.92	23.68	2.91	184793	Deceleration	-29	34
2023-10-27	22.36	23.69	2.69	104052	Deceleration	-22	30
2023-10-20	23.02	23.70	4.64	96963	Upward Expansion	11	12
2023-10-13	23.65	23.68	5.28	114720	Upward Expansion	47	30
2023-10-06	24.15	23.65	9.07	41013	Upward Expansion	62	66

Price vs TrendAbove+15.0%

Trend directionFalling-5.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-15.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+23.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+7.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+37.7%

Price momentumPositive+8.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.42×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

67 / ±100

+51.9 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

77 /100

+48.6 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

EQT Directional State ↗ EQT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance16

Rotation Up80

Upward Expansion96

Deceleration39

Rotation Down9

Downward Expansion18

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 26%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 26%Deceleration 7%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 31%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-08-21	2026-09-25	Developing	-1.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-08-14	Established	-19.2%
Balance	2026-01-30	2026-02-13	New	-11.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-05	2026-01-23	Established	-9.2%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-08-29	Developing	-8.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-04	2025-07-25	New	-0.7%
Balance	2025-05-02	2025-06-27	Developing	+3.3%
Deceleration	2025-03-21	2025-04-25	Developing	-4.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-03-14	Developing	+0.8%
Rotation Up	2025-01-24	2025-01-31	New	+4.2%
Balance	2024-10-18	2025-01-17	Established	+3.1%
Rotation Down	2024-09-20	2024-10-11	New	+7.2%
Deceleration	2024-08-30	2024-09-13	New	-2.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-02-16	2024-08-23	Extended	+13.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing53

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution21

Stage 4 · Declining31

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1C · Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 87/100
Current Relative Strength: 7.02
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +8.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +6.9%
Financial Services regime cohort: 100th percentile17 in cohort

Test EQT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.00×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.42×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore EQT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 21.79rising

Slow Activity AUD 19.08rising

Trend Reference AUD 18.99+15.0% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 25.78-15.3% close margin

Structural low AUD 15.10shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +8.2%

Annualized volatility +58.7%

From structural high -16.1%

From structural low +44.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	7	+4.2%+3.0% to +6.6%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+4.1%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+2.0%-3.0% to +10.7%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+3.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	+0.7%-2.9% to +9.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+0.4%-22.0% to +18.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+8.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

EQT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map