Weekly structural research ยท EBS ยท Communication Services

SUNN Stage Analysis

Sunrise Communications AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CHF 40.20Tenure NewBenchmark ^SSMI
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
Direction -61โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 60/100directional strength
Maturity 7/100lifecycle context
Confidence 84/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation
Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +0.2%CHF 40.13 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 99 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-0240.2041.97-4.671764790Downward Expansion-6160
2026-09-2540.7642.14-5.661270611Downward Expansion-5250
2026-09-1839.9442.29-6.871745569Balance-6451
2026-09-1141.0042.44-4.77898981Balance-4121
2026-09-0441.3042.51-8.63286701Balance-3314
2026-08-2842.4242.53-6.59255357Balance-510
2026-08-2142.2042.46-7.93275165Balance-713
2026-08-1441.8642.30-8.73184317Balance-2118
2026-08-0742.2642.14-9.14175285Balance717
2026-07-3142.6842.02-7.29151632Balance510
2026-07-2441.5241.90-9.94142468Rotation Down-2422
2026-07-1742.5841.81-8.05187129Rotation Down-2030
2026-07-1040.3241.67-12.55201571Rotation Down-3856
2026-07-0339.4041.60-15.97292542Rotation Down-4957
2026-06-2641.4241.54-10.48162929Balance-1834
2026-06-1941.1241.45-8.83678092Balance-220
2026-06-1241.7241.36-7.29194425Balance79
2026-06-0541.3841.29-6.00190385Balance77
2026-05-2943.1241.24-3.251133248Balance2513
2026-05-2242.8441.16-3.611198292Balance2111
2026-05-1542.32โ€”โ€”1751333Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-0842.56โ€”โ€”2000667Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-0143.19โ€”โ€”1221958Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-2442.47โ€”โ€”1595936Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-1742.26โ€”โ€”1826982Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-1044.49โ€”โ€”1117297Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-0343.67โ€”โ€”1059208Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-2742.60โ€”โ€”993121Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-2042.28โ€”โ€”1500297Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-1343.21โ€”โ€”1148619Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-0645.17โ€”โ€”1186573Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-2745.47โ€”โ€”1409668Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-2044.36โ€”โ€”2140224Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-1343.08โ€”โ€”1447372Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-0641.84โ€”โ€”1637687Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-3040.54โ€”โ€”3079837Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-2337.23โ€”โ€”1775638Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-1637.02โ€”โ€”2162923Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-0938.64โ€”โ€”1435242Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-0239.26โ€”โ€”326801Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-2638.75โ€”โ€”400372Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-1938.36โ€”โ€”1545727Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-1238.10โ€”โ€”1448428Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-0537.75โ€”โ€”1784876Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2838.60โ€”โ€”1818367Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2138.39โ€”โ€”2477222Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-1439.64โ€”โ€”2269674Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-0739.88โ€”โ€”1722765Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-3140.76โ€”โ€”1258239Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-2442.37โ€”โ€”1021599Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1742.76โ€”โ€”751975Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1043.54โ€”โ€”934309Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-0344.02โ€”โ€”1111359Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-2642.78โ€”โ€”1208381Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1944.37โ€”โ€”1618588Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1245.47โ€”โ€”692205Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-0544.28โ€”โ€”856914Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2946.47โ€”โ€”1079104Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2246.47โ€”โ€”1498096Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-1541.95โ€”โ€”697775Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0841.39โ€”โ€”1078474Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0140.51โ€”โ€”916291Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-2541.43โ€”โ€”918333Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1841.93โ€”โ€”1244032Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1141.19โ€”โ€”900238Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-0441.38โ€”โ€”955666Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2741.12โ€”โ€”1158036Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2040.67โ€”โ€”1875638Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-1340.13โ€”โ€”809213Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-0640.08โ€”โ€”1272208Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-3039.21โ€”โ€”1224165Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-2339.64โ€”โ€”2234015Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-1638.51โ€”โ€”1746747Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0938.96โ€”โ€”1111822Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0238.27โ€”โ€”942429Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-2536.90โ€”โ€”973830Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1837.43โ€”โ€”1094139Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1135.12โ€”โ€”1875456Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-0435.36โ€”โ€”1696664Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2836.76โ€”โ€”1437180Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2136.42โ€”โ€”2305707Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-1434.72โ€”โ€”1366946Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-0733.25โ€”โ€”1916409Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2835.69โ€”โ€”1737128Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2136.44โ€”โ€”963770Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-1436.16โ€”โ€”1341705Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-0737.07โ€”โ€”1184583Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-3139.09โ€”โ€”1376625Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-2437.28โ€”โ€”1361419Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1736.81โ€”โ€”1491694Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1035.99โ€”โ€”1390075Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-0334.01โ€”โ€”375674Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2733.70โ€”โ€”308737Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2033.95โ€”โ€”1886279Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-1335.17โ€”โ€”1133177Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-0635.60โ€”โ€”1824846Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2937.41โ€”โ€”4789903Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2235.53โ€”โ€”9291055Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-1535.82โ€”โ€”1454928Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-4.2%
Trend directionRising+0.2%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+0.2%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.5%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-4.7%
Relative strength directionImproving+11.3%
Price momentumNegative-7.9%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.45ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-61 / ยฑ100

-28.3 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

60 /100

+46.4 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance27
Rotation Up13
Upward Expansion15
Deceleration35
Rotation Down70
Downward Expansion88

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-11-15 to 2026-10-02 ยท 20 classified observations out of 99 shown.

Balance 70%Rotation Down 20%Downward Expansion 10%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-09-252026-10-02New-1.4%
Balance2026-07-312026-09-18Developing-6.4%
Rotation Down2026-07-032026-07-24New+5.4%
Balance2026-05-222026-06-26Developing-3.3%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing70
Stage 2 ยท Advancing24
Stage 3 ยท Distribution50
Stage 4 ยท Declining76

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4C ยท Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^SSMI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
81/100
Current Relative Strength
-4.67
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-7.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-13.2%
Communication Services regime cohort
100th percentile2 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume3.10ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.45ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity CHF 40.48falling
Slow Activity CHF 41.57falling
Trend Reference CHF 41.97-4.2% close margin
Current Fair Value CHF 40.13+0.2% close margin
Structural low CHF 38.72shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +3.6%
Annualized volatility +17.4%
From structural high -13.8%
From structural low +10.5%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^SSMI Regime survived Read
Near term0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Intermediate0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context