Weekly structural research · JKT · Basic Materials

SQMI Stage Analysis

PT Wilton Makmur Indonesia Tbk.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close IDR 86.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^JKSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 65−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 75/100directional strength

Maturity 36/100lifecycle context

Confidence 80/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +85.9%IDR 46.25 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	86.00	60.67	81.43	4296548400	Upward Expansion	65	75
2026-09-18	99.00	60.23	106.83	2141638300	Upward Expansion	75	86
2026-09-11	99.00	58.63	109.09	2617333100	Upward Expansion	84	86
2026-09-04	103.00	56.77	120.07	5510471700	Upward Expansion	90	68
2026-08-28	67.00	54.77	49.86	120285000	Upward Expansion	66	44
2026-08-21	62.00	53.97	40.40	27952100	Upward Expansion	59	46
2026-08-14	62.00	53.33	44.77	13550500	Upward Expansion	64	74
2026-08-07	63.00	52.70	48.74	42773800	Upward Expansion	65	78
2026-07-31	67.00	52.03	64.56	7738700	Rotation Up	60	70
2026-07-24	72.00	51.23	80.66	19332600	Rotation Up	74	59
2026-07-17	67.00	50.27	71.72	153185800	Deceleration	33	28
2026-07-10	53.00	49.47	43.77	40101200	Deceleration	-2	14
2026-07-03	48.00	49.13	32.45	2780600	Rotation Down	-34	38
2026-06-26	33.00	48.97	-8.71	2501100	Rotation Down	-63	77
2026-06-19	42.00	49.30	10.68	482500	Rotation Down	-45	66
2026-06-12	44.00	49.33	19.43	4322400	Rotation Down	-31	65
2026-06-05	45.00	49.30	31.48	6000000	Rotation Down	-27	62
2026-05-29	44.00	49.23	18.12	14483000	Deceleration	-32	54
2026-05-22	43.00	49.20	15.27	26743500	Deceleration	-32	32
2026-05-15	48.00	49.20	18.37	7192100	Deceleration	-0	13
2026-05-08	48.00	49.03	14.38	23960500	Deceleration	14	14
2026-05-01	55.00	48.87	31.06	11945600	Deceleration	37	22
2026-04-24	58.00	48.47	35.61	22711600	Deceleration	41	29
2026-04-17	55.00	47.97	21.11	24076200	Deceleration	42	30
2026-04-10	58.00	47.57	32.14	41227800	Upward Expansion	48	41
2026-04-03	60.00	47.07	47.22	64221200	Upward Expansion	65	54
2026-03-27	57.00	46.50	40.96	30073700	Upward Expansion	64	63
2026-03-20	59.00	46.03	48.04	19768600	Upward Expansion	66	68
2026-03-13	59.00	45.50	49.94	49791600	Upward Expansion	66	88
2026-03-06	64.00	44.97	55.64	271768900	Upward Expansion	87	95
2026-02-27	73.00	44.27	66.43	267220900	Upward Expansion	94	98
2026-02-20	51.00	43.27	18.10	10770000	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-02-13	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2026-02-06	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2026-01-30	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2026-01-23	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2026-01-16	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2026-01-09	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2026-01-02	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-12-26	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-12-19	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-12-12	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-12-05	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-11-28	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-11-21	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-11-14	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-11-07	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-10-31	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-10-24	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-10-17	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-10-10	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-10-03	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-09-26	43.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-09-19	43.00	37.70	10.44	0	Deceleration	47	79
2025-09-12	43.00	37.00	13.54	0	Deceleration	43	65
2025-09-05	43.00	36.20	13.66	0	Deceleration	42	60
2025-08-29	43.00	35.47	14.37	0	Deceleration	42	65
2025-08-22	43.00	34.83	14.04	0	Deceleration	43	67
2025-08-15	43.00	34.27	13.45	0	Deceleration	47	67
2025-08-08	43.00	33.83	19.38	0	Deceleration	46	60
2025-08-01	43.00	33.40	18.76	0	Deceleration	44	40
2025-07-25	43.00	32.93	18.13	0	Deceleration	44	38
2025-07-18	43.00	32.53	21.31	0	Deceleration	44	37
2025-07-11	43.00	32.20	25.39	0	Deceleration	45	39
2025-07-04	43.00	32.03	28.32	0	Deceleration	48	46
2025-06-27	43.00	31.87	27.31	4730000	Upward Expansion	49	49
2025-06-20	43.00	31.80	26.62	15500400	Upward Expansion	61	56
2025-06-13	47.00	31.60	32.78	9217000	Upward Expansion	77	66
2025-06-06	43.00	31.43	22.05	12272200	Upward Expansion	65	65
2025-05-30	42.00	31.00	17.66	3482600	Rotation Up	67	87
2025-05-23	42.00	30.60	16.55	15943400	Rotation Up	40	79
2025-05-16	47.00	30.23	31.89	14889400	Rotation Up	53	83
2025-05-09	51.00	29.63	48.59	52238800	Rotation Up	56	83
2025-05-02	42.00	28.97	22.89	71932300	Rotation Up	52	60
2025-04-25	37.00	28.73	10.08	24706500	Rotation Up	19	30
2025-04-18	25.00	28.60	-23.28	27039700	Downward Expansion	-50	42
2025-04-11	21.00	28.97	-34.49	5398900	Downward Expansion	-67	62
2025-03-28	21.00	29.50	-37.81	5901100	Downward Expansion	-68	61
2025-03-21	21.00	30.10	-36.15	5803800	Downward Expansion	-70	62
2025-03-14	22.00	30.73	-36.58	5520200	Downward Expansion	-55	56
2025-03-07	23.00	31.37	-35.76	12589600	Downward Expansion	-61	67
2025-02-28	22.00	31.70	-35.74	46342200	Downward Expansion	-65	84
2025-02-21	23.00	32.63	-38.86	84356600	Downward Expansion	-67	87
2025-02-14	22.00	33.53	-40.83	22406400	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2025-02-07	19.00	34.47	-50.32	15720000	Downward Expansion	-86	92
2025-01-31	21.00	35.50	-48.71	12142300	Downward Expansion	-83	81
2025-01-24	24.00	36.47	-42.81	22911100	Downward Expansion	-78	75
2025-01-17	26.00	37.33	-38.72	20667700	Downward Expansion	-76	74
2025-01-10	30.00	38.13	-29.48	7527500	Downward Expansion	-61	67
2025-01-03	30.00	38.80	-30.94	7109000	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2024-12-27	29.00	39.47	-32.75	38425900	Balance	-58	51
2024-12-20	31.00	40.17	-28.35	9352500	Balance	-50	30
2024-12-13	33.00	40.80	-28.03	13737200	Balance	-26	16
2024-12-06	38.00	41.37	-18.70	8306300	Balance	-9	19
2024-11-29	38.00	41.77	-16.59	6926700	Downward Expansion	-9	25
2024-11-22	41.00	42.17	-11.61	9895400	Downward Expansion	-13	23
2024-11-15	37.00	42.47	-20.34	38331400	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2024-11-08	42.00	42.90	-11.74	17296900	Downward Expansion	-32	32
2024-11-01	30.00	43.17	-39.11	12213500	Downward Expansion	-68	61
2024-10-25	30.00	43.83	-41.24	15287000	Downward Expansion	-71	66
2024-10-18	31.00	44.50	-40.41	9417400	Downward Expansion	-69	66
2024-10-11	29.00	45.17	-43.03	13993600	Downward Expansion	-84	72
2024-10-04	31.00	45.93	-39.48	10952400	Downward Expansion	-84	72
2024-09-27	35.00	46.57	-34.05	16552400	Downward Expansion	-70	68
2024-09-20	33.00	47.13	-38.66	18883100	Downward Expansion	-88	74
2024-09-13	36.00	47.77	-34.25	21794100	Downward Expansion	-83	73
2024-09-06	37.00	48.27	-32.20	11083300	Downward Expansion	-79	72
2024-08-30	39.00	48.80	-28.58	12424600	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2024-08-23	40.00	49.40	-26.01	4913500	Downward Expansion	-74	71
2024-08-16	41.00	49.80	-23.57	19738200	Downward Expansion	-79	72
2024-08-09	33.00	50.20	-37.44	20149600	Downward Expansion	-93	97
2024-08-02	50.00	—	—	126400	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-07-26	50.00	51.10	-6.82	1076700	Downward Expansion	-57	84
2024-07-19	50.00	51.27	-7.25	1223900	Downward Expansion	-55	81
2024-07-12	50.00	51.47	-7.98	265800	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2024-07-05	50.00	51.77	-7.26	75900	Downward Expansion	-44	33
2024-06-28	50.00	52.20	-5.06	908100	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2024-06-21	50.00	52.30	-2.80	1502400	Downward Expansion	-46	39
2024-06-14	50.00	52.43	-0.98	1107600	Downward Expansion	-46	39
2024-06-07	50.00	52.47	-3.70	1085600	Downward Expansion	-45	36
2024-05-31	50.00	52.50	-4.96	28700	Downward Expansion	-46	41
2024-05-24	50.00	52.57	-8.59	59500	Downward Expansion	-52	46
2024-05-17	50.00	52.60	-10.27	181900	Downward Expansion	-53	46
2024-05-10	50.00	52.63	-7.94	11500	Downward Expansion	-55	45
2024-05-03	50.00	52.63	-9.00	257900	Downward Expansion	-55	43
2024-04-26	50.00	52.67	-8.18	14799000	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2024-04-19	50.00	52.70	-9.29	25552600	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2024-04-05	50.00	52.77	-12.31	853900	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2024-03-29	50.00	52.87	-12.88	3679600	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2024-03-22	50.00	52.93	-14.20	27283500	Downward Expansion	-34	39
2024-03-15	51.00	53.00	-12.85	39668200	Balance	-28	32
2024-03-08	52.00	53.13	-12.25	33070400	Balance	-16	27
2024-03-01	50.00	53.27	-15.27	11259400	Balance	-21	33
2024-02-23	52.00	53.43	-12.16	21907100	Balance	-13	17
2024-02-16	52.00	53.60	-13.09	23356500	Balance	-12	10
2024-02-09	51.00	53.77	-14.14	28420000	Balance	-15	11
2024-02-02	53.00	53.93	-11.44	39257100	Balance	19	11
2024-01-26	57.00	53.90	-3.96	78252800	Balance	33	15
2024-01-19	52.00	53.80	-13.85	36125000	Balance	-1	7
2024-01-12	53.00	53.87	-12.90	38234200	Balance	24	14
2024-01-05	55.00	53.97	-11.43	22730400	Balance	33	15
2023-12-29	55.00	54.13	-10.76	44048600	Rotation Up	21	15
2023-12-22	55.00	54.13	-10.80	47974400	Rotation Up	28	40
2023-12-15	56.00	54.20	-9.05	90797500	Rotation Up	28	44
2023-12-08	59.00	54.37	-4.33	136600200	Rotation Up	26	47
2023-12-01	63.00	54.47	3.00	247913600	Downward Expansion	36	31
2023-11-24	53.00	54.43	-13.15	22259600	Downward Expansion	-27	13
2023-11-17	54.00	54.73	-11.96	36551400	Downward Expansion	-26	12
2023-11-10	51.00	55.00	-15.58	37008500	Downward Expansion	-39	21
2023-11-03	51.00	55.47	-16.07	52916400	Downward Expansion	-45	25
2023-10-27	52.00	55.90	-14.79	85932400	Downward Expansion	-50	30
2023-10-20	51.00	56.37	-18.27	59161900	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2023-10-13	51.00	56.87	-19.92	18879900	Downward Expansion	-56	45
2023-10-06	50.00	57.20	-21.73	36283300	Downward Expansion	-63	49
2023-09-29	51.00	57.63	-21.38	33248000	Downward Expansion	-59	38
2023-09-22	51.00	58.00	-22.77	29449500	Downward Expansion	-61	44

Price vs TrendAbove+41.8%

Trend directionRising+20.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+85.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+112.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+81.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+90.1%

Price momentumPositive+50.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.84×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

65 / ±100

-1.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

75 /100

+31.6 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SQMI Directional State ↗ SQMI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance16

Rotation Up75

Upward Expansion90

Deceleration46

Rotation Down9

Downward Expansion17

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-09-25 · 134 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 11%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 15%Deceleration 16%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 46%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-07	2026-09-25	Developing	+36.5%
Rotation Up	2026-07-24	2026-07-31	New	-6.9%
Deceleration	2026-07-10	2026-07-17	New	+26.4%
Rotation Down	2026-06-05	2026-07-03	Developing	+6.7%
Deceleration	2026-04-17	2026-05-29	Developing	-20.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-04-10	Developing	+13.7%
Deceleration	2025-07-04	2025-09-19	Developing	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-06	2025-06-27	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2025-04-25	2025-05-30	Developing	+13.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-03	2025-04-18	Established	-16.7%
Balance	2024-12-06	2024-12-27	New	-23.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-03-22	2024-11-29	Extended	-24.0%
Balance	2024-01-05	2024-03-15	Developing	-7.3%
Rotation Up	2023-12-08	2023-12-29	New	-6.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing30

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution40

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^JKSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 81/100
Current Relative Strength: 81.43
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +50.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +62.9%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 45th percentile20 in cohort

Test SQMI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume5.71×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.84×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SQMI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity IDR 93.07rising

Slow Activity IDR 65.87rising

Trend Reference IDR 60.67+41.8% close margin

Current Fair Value IDR 46.25+85.9% close margin

Structural low IDR 33.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +20.0%

Annualized volatility +103.0%

From structural high -30.1%

From structural low +160.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^JKSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	7	+0.0%-12.8% to +63.5%	+42.9%	+42.9%	+3.5%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	-15.7%-24.4% to +0.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-10.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+5.0%-17.9% to +27.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+7.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	-35.9%-35.9% to -35.9%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-33.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SQMI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

RMI Reversal Map