Weekly structural research ยท JPX ยท Industrials

7827 Stage Analysis

Orvis Corporation

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 1,800.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^N225
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Rotation Up ยท Value reclamation

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
  • Re-acceleration watch: Fast Activity is turning upward after a positive-structure recompression.
Direction 87โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 92/100directional strength
Maturity 15/100lifecycle context
Confidence 65/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +23.3%JPY 1,459.62 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-251,800.001,685.50-5.9813700Rotation Up8792
2026-09-181,765.001,684.50-6.5532000Rotation Up5178
2026-09-111,730.001,681.77-7.526200Rotation Up3975
2026-09-041,748.001,678.87-8.507800Rotation Up4276
2026-08-281,751.001,675.20-10.7113900Rotation Up4871
2026-08-211,739.001,671.13-11.291100Downward Expansion4548
2026-08-141,687.001,667.70-17.742400Downward Expansion-517
2026-08-071,645.001,666.63-16.491500Downward Expansion-3821
2026-07-311,650.001,666.40-15.181200Downward Expansion-4329
2026-07-241,624.001,664.10-17.37300Downward Expansion-5643
2026-07-171,606.001,662.30-18.161000Downward Expansion-6555
2026-07-101,617.001,660.40-23.423600Rotation Down-3236
2026-07-031,620.001,662.07-25.15400Rotation Down-3249
2026-06-261,615.001,663.40-25.541000Rotation Down-3755
2026-06-191,648.001,664.57-26.56200Rotation Down-2448
2026-06-121,595.001,660.90-23.921700Rotation Down-3451
2026-06-051,602.001,658.97-24.721900Deceleration-3135
2026-05-291,670.001,654.47-21.7115500Deceleration108
2026-05-221,664.001,648.33-18.7313700Deceleration106
2026-05-151,666.001,647.74-16.497300Deceleration158
2026-05-081,715.001,645.25-16.193600Deceleration3716
2026-05-011,696.001,643.57-13.0610900Deceleration2816
2026-04-241,680.001,641.18-14.575300Deceleration2722
2026-04-171,673.001,641.85-13.6011700Deceleration3122
2026-04-101,698.001,640.45-10.408200Deceleration3823
2026-04-031,660.001,636.31-6.5618800Upward Expansion4330
2026-03-271,729.001,630.91-3.3614800Upward Expansion6256
2026-03-201,747.001,622.75-2.5146500Upward Expansion6579
2026-03-131,723.001,613.22-4.9134300Upward Expansion6680
2026-03-061,802.001,604.88-4.0030000Upward Expansion8991
2026-02-271,770.001,594.00-11.0334600Upward Expansion9083
2026-02-201,683.001,583.67-12.5822400Upward Expansion7256
2026-02-131,643.001,575.08-15.004900Upward Expansion5848
2026-02-061,638.001,567.57-11.3010600Upward Expansion5653
2026-01-301,629.001,560.20-10.376600Upward Expansion5556
2026-01-231,636.001,552.96-10.9412100Upward Expansion5341
2026-01-161,655.001,545.33-10.2318700Upward Expansion5931
2026-01-091,638.001,536.94-7.8418400Upward Expansion4419
2026-01-021,581.001,526.19-8.307100Upward Expansion3317
2025-12-261,570.001,516.89-9.7329500Upward Expansion4729
2025-12-191,549.001,507.57-8.78113300Upward Expansion4943
2025-12-121,667.001,499.30-4.5236000Upward Expansion6355
2025-12-051,660.001,487.04-4.3021700Deceleration6138
2025-11-281,650.001,474.82-4.4445600Deceleration4822
2025-11-211,538.001,463.06-7.9442100Deceleration2025
2025-11-141,537.001,455.35-11.2185300Deceleration2525
2025-11-071,467.001,446.68-15.2163600Deceleration1722
2025-10-311,486.001,440.09-17.87187600Upward Expansion3731
2025-10-241,646.291,434.31-3.8268800Upward Expansion6863
2025-10-171,591.321,423.63-4.0065500Upward Expansion6666
2025-10-101,664.611,416.91-0.9164900Upward Expansion7573
2025-10-031,624.111,405.951.2898900Upward Expansion6885
2025-09-261,700.301,395.606.8755200Upward Expansion9799
2025-09-191,630.861,382.683.2560600Upward Expansion9798
2025-09-121,573.961,371.710.2469800Upward Expansion9577
2025-09-051,497.771,362.65-0.7520100Upward Expansion8071
2025-08-291,484.261,355.80-0.9219800Upward Expansion7771
2025-08-221,461.121,349.15-2.1713900Upward Expansion6876
2025-08-151,472.691,343.65-3.0510500Upward Expansion8092
2025-08-081,475.581,337.320.7012000Upward Expansion8995
2025-08-011,460.151,332.142.1430200Upward Expansion9096
2025-07-251,425.431,327.19-1.8014900Upward Expansion7691
2025-07-181,417.721,321.531.7514600Upward Expansion7084
2025-07-111,416.751,318.322.496900Upward Expansion7281
2025-07-041,411.931,314.651.7013200Upward Expansion7277
2025-06-271,407.111,309.640.5610400Upward Expansion7370
2025-06-201,403.251,304.594.8842200Balance6951
2025-06-131,315.491,299.03-0.0617900Balance3112
2025-06-061,301.991,298.77-0.8012100Balance54
2025-05-301,290.411,299.57-2.214900Balance24
2025-05-161,301.021,305.26-0.851900Balance-45
2025-05-091,299.091,313.25-0.282700Balance-3316
2025-05-021,293.311,320.771.126300Balance-3723
2025-04-251,297.161,329.174.6611600Balance-4729
2025-04-181,306.811,335.838.51306100Balance-3726
2025-04-111,276.911,338.549.8319500Balance-4732
2025-04-041,269.201,340.608.9318500Balance-4619
2025-03-281,312.591,341.502.8211800Rotation Up-621
2025-03-211,326.101,341.642.5220100Rotation Up1634
2025-03-141,389.751,339.579.4219500Balance3844
2025-03-071,335.741,335.815.786900Balance-311
2025-02-281,313.561,332.093.435000Balance-2113
2025-02-211,312.591,330.55-0.9117900Downward Expansion-3318
2025-02-141,301.991,330.10-2.669200Downward Expansion-3827
2025-02-071,301.991,331.24-1.725900Downward Expansion-4930
2025-01-311,292.341,332.56-4.4611000Balance-5033
2025-01-241,284.631,333.90-6.054800Balance-4324
2025-01-171,296.201,336.45-1.765500Deceleration-3820
2025-01-101,282.701,337.50-4.6615800Deceleration-4426
2025-01-031,320.311,338.85-3.7511200Deceleration-1313
2024-12-271,311.631,338.57-5.7134700Deceleration-1515
2024-12-201,255.691,338.03-6.1738000Deceleration-2725
2024-12-131,321.271,339.78-3.3429600Rotation Down-2026
2024-12-061,306.811,338.98-3.8130300Rotation Down-2442
2024-11-291,261.481,338.91-5.4215000Rotation Down-2749
2024-11-221,255.691,340.63-6.5027900Deceleration-2839
2024-11-151,236.401,342.41-9.2367600Deceleration-2333
2024-11-081,307.771,343.82-6.5975700Upward Expansion1617
2024-11-011,326.101,341.62-2.28233800Upward Expansion3528
2024-10-251,461.001,339.617.48107100Upward Expansion6574
2024-10-181,540.581,334.309.4948800Upward Expansion7485
2024-10-111,524.851,327.035.8071000Upward Expansion7584
2024-10-041,545.201,321.699.02178300Upward Expansion8584
2024-09-271,497.091,314.381.6283900Balance8272
2024-09-201,387.911,310.12-1.3760700Balance3829
2024-09-131,338.871,308.24-2.4824500Balance48
2024-09-061,296.311,305.71-5.6626500Balance-3315
2024-08-301,316.661,305.47-9.9017100Downward Expansion-4328
2024-08-231,263.921,304.79-13.0112700Downward Expansion-5551
2024-08-161,276.881,305.47-11.6115400Balance-5341
2024-08-091,224.131,304.14-8.0690000Balance-4436
2024-08-021,267.621,305.65-7.2516700Balance-1718
2024-07-261,299.081,308.74-9.5010900Upward Expansion2616
2024-07-191,336.091,304.42-12.593100Upward Expansion5858
2024-07-121,341.641,298.87-14.732400Upward Expansion5958
2024-07-051,332.391,297.88-14.8715700Upward Expansion5456
2024-06-281,361.081,298.06-10.248700Balance7262
2024-06-211,327.771,299.48-10.219400Balance5540
2024-06-141,323.141,301.89-11.048700Balance2320
2024-06-071,312.041,304.88-11.4810300Balance-105
2024-05-311,295.381,309.29-12.1411700Balance-188
2024-05-241,308.331,313.92-11.6314800Balance-138
2024-05-171,297.231,323.09-12.717700Balance-2713
2024-05-101,304.631,337.03-10.9814400Balance-2911
2024-05-031,312.961,351.52-10.514000Downward Expansion-4222
2024-04-261,309.261,365.34-10.117300Downward Expansion-4932
2024-04-191,278.731,378.91-10.2034800Downward Expansion-4139
2024-04-121,241.711,388.98-18.3213200Balance-5141
2024-04-051,265.771,401.68-15.8122600Balance-4121
2024-03-291,301.861,401.20-16.6012100Balance-1710
2024-03-221,322.211,398.38-16.5527700Balance-1314
2024-03-151,364.781,393.47-9.2128300Balance-1015
2024-03-081,325.911,386.51-14.0928400Balance-1814
2024-03-011,369.401,382.69-11.91181800Downward Expansion-2716
2024-02-231,331.471,377.56-12.6666300Downward Expansion-3924
2024-02-161,263.001,373.35-15.9625100Downward Expansion-4631
2024-02-091,288.901,369.75-10.7320900Deceleration-4333
2024-02-021,296.311,365.26-8.4819600Deceleration-1825
2024-01-261,284.281,360.17-8.3421200Deceleration-2825
2024-01-191,237.091,355.60-12.2558200Rotation Down-3736
2024-01-121,269.471,352.36-9.11155600Rotation Down-2644
2024-01-051,360.151,348.223.77117200Rotation Down-2962
2023-12-291,169.541,338.78-10.8354200Rotation Down-4775
2023-12-221,169.541,335.24-10.10113300Deceleration-5066
2023-12-151,312.041,331.431.4643500Deceleration-1431
2023-12-081,337.941,323.205.8363300Deceleration-622
2023-12-011,403.641,313.797.5731800Deceleration1625
2023-11-241,399.941,301.586.9629300Deceleration2131
2023-11-171,412.891,289.098.3847600Deceleration3234
2023-11-101,444.351,277.2614.5295600Upward Expansion4229
2023-11-031,434.171,263.8216.49156100Upward Expansion5250
2023-10-271,583.511,250.8133.27165700Upward Expansion6666
2023-10-201,715.321,232.1944.12104000Upward Expansion6876
2023-10-131,739.371,208.7442.54109000Upward Expansion7892
2023-10-061,727.791,185.3548.86238700Upward Expansion8795
2023-09-291,716.211,162.1045.23139900Upward Expansion9698
Price vs TrendAbove+6.8%
Trend directionRising+1.4%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+23.3%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+9.8%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-6.0%
Relative strength directionImproving+19.6%
Price momentumPositive+4.1%
Volume balanceDemand-led3.23ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

87 / ยฑ100

+39.3 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

92 /100

+20.3 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance17
Rotation Up84
Upward Expansion97
Deceleration42
Rotation Down9
Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-09-25 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 24%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 34%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 11%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Rotation Up2026-08-282026-09-25Developing+2.8%
Downward Expansion2026-07-172026-08-21Developing+8.3%
Rotation Down2026-06-122026-07-10Developing+1.4%
Deceleration2026-04-102026-06-05Developing-5.7%
Upward Expansion2025-12-122026-04-03Established-0.4%
Deceleration2025-11-072025-12-05Developing+13.2%
Upward Expansion2025-06-272025-10-31Established+5.6%
Balance2025-04-042025-06-20Developing+10.6%
Rotation Up2025-03-212025-03-28New-1.0%
Balance2025-02-282025-03-14New+5.8%
Downward Expansion2025-02-072025-02-21New+0.8%
Balance2025-01-242025-01-31New+0.6%
Deceleration2024-12-202025-01-17Developing+3.2%
Rotation Down2024-11-292024-12-13New+4.7%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing39
Stage 2 ยท Advancing73
Stage 3 ยท Distribution61
Stage 4 ยท Declining27

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2A ยท Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
42/100
Current Relative Strength
-5.98
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+4.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-20.2%
Industrials regime cohort
93th percentile123 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume2.17ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume3.23ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity JPY 1,766.47rising
Slow Activity JPY 1,686.43rising
Trend Reference JPY 1,685.50+6.8% close margin
Current Fair Value JPY 1,459.62+23.3% close margin
Structural low JPY 1,566.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +2.0%
Annualized volatility +13.8%
From structural high -2.7%
From structural low +25.8%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^N225 Regime survived Read
Near term5+0.3%-1.5% to +2.8%+60.0%+60.0%+2.3%+40.0%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate3+6.1%+4.4% to +8.4%+100.0%+100.0%-0.5%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended3+26.7%+13.3% to +28.2%+100.0%+100.0%+7.8%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle3+28.8%+23.7% to +30.4%+100.0%+100.0%-11.3%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context