Weekly structural research · TAI · Consumer Cyclical

2461 Stage Analysis

K Laser Technology Inc.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close TWD 17.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 12−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 14/100directional strength

Maturity 17/100lifecycle context

Confidence 73/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -9.6%TWD 18.81 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	17.00	17.39	-25.37	2795023	Balance	12	14
2026-10-02	17.35	17.34	-23.32	2129917	Upward Expansion	28	15
2026-09-25	17.80	17.28	-21.48	1249008	Upward Expansion	50	28
2026-09-18	17.75	17.24	-21.24	1879064	Upward Expansion	55	54
2026-09-11	17.65	17.20	-20.87	3250736	Upward Expansion	59	61
2026-09-04	18.25	17.15	-19.81	831002	Upward Expansion	57	58
2026-08-28	18.85	17.09	-17.78	1213094	Balance	65	42
2026-08-21	18.15	17.02	-19.81	470834	Balance	43	22
2026-08-14	17.60	16.98	-24.07	787084	Balance	1	7
2026-08-07	17.35	16.94	-23.42	955999	Balance	-8	21
2026-07-31	16.00	16.87	-28.40	817367	Balance	-22	28
2026-07-24	15.90	16.83	-30.54	928466	Balance	-21	21
2026-07-17	16.05	16.81	-29.12	971197	Balance	10	13
2026-07-10	17.30	16.79	-28.95	0	Upward Expansion	35	17
2026-07-03	17.95	16.73	-29.34	5851250	Upward Expansion	48	35
2026-06-26	16.95	16.64	-30.74	6626590	Upward Expansion	49	48
2026-06-19	18.40	16.57	-28.67	5910936	Upward Expansion	53	57
2026-06-12	19.05	16.47	-23.17	33902437	Balance	61	53
2026-06-05	19.50	16.36	-23.81	16435470	Balance	65	30
2026-05-29	16.25	16.23	-36.89	5727162	Balance	7	14
2026-05-22	16.75	16.22	-32.06	3316575	Balance	20	19
2026-05-15	15.50	16.17	-36.24	3200670	Balance	5	13
2026-05-08	16.50	16.18	-33.73	3211467	Upward Expansion	34	18
2026-05-01	16.85	16.16	-28.55	2403458	Upward Expansion	53	34
2026-04-24	17.40	16.14	-27.07	6391880	Upward Expansion	59	62
2026-04-17	17.55	16.13	-23.04	3928146	Upward Expansion	59	66
2026-04-10	17.70	16.10	-20.01	6269945	Upward Expansion	61	64
2026-04-03	18.00	16.07	-12.42	4862084	Balance	70	59
2026-03-27	17.50	16.03	-16.98	4322955	Balance	63	30
2026-03-20	16.75	16.00	-22.32	4289792	Balance	15	9
2026-03-13	15.45	16.00	-28.83	3579170	Balance	-10	9
2026-03-06	15.80	16.06	-28.54	3506580	Rotation Up	5	6
2026-02-27	16.60	16.08	-29.55	1769294	Rotation Up	29	22
2026-02-13	16.45	16.06	-27.19	981125	Rotation Up	18	26
2026-02-06	16.20	16.06	-24.92	1072343	Rotation Up	19	38
2026-01-30	16.40	16.04	-25.29	2000406	Rotation Up	20	32
2026-01-23	16.80	16.03	-23.81	2651323	Rotation Up	27	33
2026-01-16	16.90	15.99	-22.57	4721923	Downward Expansion	27	23
2026-01-09	16.35	15.94	-22.86	8201248	Downward Expansion	-16	10
2026-01-02	15.40	15.92	-25.58	1494099	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2025-12-26	14.80	15.97	-27.09	2518373	Downward Expansion	-71	46
2025-12-19	15.30	16.07	-22.92	794190	Downward Expansion	-57	39
2025-12-12	15.25	16.11	-25.07	792411	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2025-12-05	15.50	16.16	-23.90	1008582	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2025-11-28	15.30	16.19	-24.59	855138	Downward Expansion	-61	61
2025-11-21	15.00	16.23	-23.38	1759703	Downward Expansion	-75	64
2025-11-14	15.40	16.25	-24.68	1381137	Downward Expansion	-65	52
2025-11-07	15.60	16.26	-25.01	959505	Rotation Down	-62	61
2025-10-31	15.60	16.22	-27.21	1025465	Rotation Down	-36	53
2025-10-24	15.90	16.29	-24.60	851666	Balance	-30	50
2025-10-17	15.35	16.36	-27.16	1061971	Balance	-72	63
2025-10-10	15.80	16.49	-25.66	765560	Balance	-42	32
2025-10-03	15.95	16.59	-24.09	622337	Balance	-35	23
2025-09-26	16.20	16.73	-20.01	1019314	Balance	-23	12
2025-09-19	17.00	16.84	-16.71	1087003	Balance	28	23
2025-09-12	16.60	16.93	-18.91	744148	Balance	-6	12
2025-09-05	16.85	17.02	-15.04	873621	Balance	-4	17
2025-08-29	17.00	17.09	-13.99	1503615	Balance	-0	15
2025-08-22	16.65	17.14	-14.66	1822104	Balance	-9	15
2025-08-15	16.75	17.19	-16.68	1637263	Balance	-9	13
2025-08-08	17.10	17.24	-14.36	1231509	Downward Expansion	-14	14
2025-08-01	16.45	17.29	-16.11	1091185	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2025-07-25	16.10	17.38	-18.16	988236	Downward Expansion	-50	32
2025-07-18	16.20	17.46	-18.24	835992	Downward Expansion	-55	43
2025-07-11	15.85	17.55	-18.22	1604143	Downward Expansion	-58	61
2025-07-04	15.89	17.69	-17.79	1674315	Downward Expansion	-55	51
2025-06-27	15.70	17.82	-19.37	930609	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2025-06-20	15.37	17.96	-19.70	1255900	Downward Expansion	-63	37
2025-06-13	15.89	18.11	-17.67	1627398	Downward Expansion	-48	27
2025-06-06	16.65	18.27	-12.79	4084739	Downward Expansion	-33	19
2025-05-30	17.89	18.41	-5.60	6404415	Downward Expansion	-32	20
2025-05-23	16.51	18.52	-14.50	1174850	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2025-05-16	16.75	18.66	-14.61	1228507	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2025-05-09	16.55	18.79	-12.49	1512439	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2025-05-02	16.27	18.93	-14.16	991597	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2025-04-25	15.79	19.10	-13.50	1120688	Downward Expansion	-71	88
2025-04-18	15.56	19.28	-13.24	2007190	Downward Expansion	-83	91
2025-04-11	14.56	19.46	-19.85	4994215	Downward Expansion	-93	90
2025-04-04	17.51	19.67	-12.22	1339487	Downward Expansion	-79	71
2025-03-28	18.22	19.82	-10.38	1598046	Balance	-55	32
2025-03-21	18.98	19.94	-9.69	1063286	Balance	-23	14
2025-03-14	19.08	20.03	-8.61	5599325	Balance	-15	17
2025-03-07	19.98	20.07	-7.18	4824240	Downward Expansion	2	18
2025-02-28	19.50	20.13	-11.67	1590099	Downward Expansion	-27	25
2025-02-21	19.74	20.19	-13.67	1499018	Downward Expansion	-32	22
2025-02-14	19.31	20.27	-13.99	1268754	Downward Expansion	-46	35
2025-02-07	18.93	20.37	-17.44	1268240	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2025-01-24	18.46	20.50	-20.34	620958	Downward Expansion	-64	67
2025-01-17	18.27	20.63	-20.53	745637	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2025-01-10	18.12	20.79	-21.34	976854	Downward Expansion	-78	81
2025-01-03	18.65	20.96	-19.40	816170	Downward Expansion	-71	74
2024-12-27	19.22	21.13	-18.84	1360589	Downward Expansion	-63	70
2024-12-20	18.55	21.26	-19.51	1285165	Downward Expansion	-81	81
2024-12-13	18.74	21.40	-21.02	1844766	Downward Expansion	-82	75
2024-12-06	20.03	21.53	-16.81	999443	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2024-11-29	19.84	21.64	-14.70	1607197	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2024-11-22	20.03	21.77	-16.87	1527726	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2024-11-15	19.60	21.87	-18.77	2488210	Downward Expansion	-77	59
2024-11-08	20.74	21.93	-17.71	1327629	Downward Expansion	-56	32
2024-11-01	20.84	21.99	-15.16	1064037	Downward Expansion	-52	30
2024-10-25	21.17	22.02	-16.49	1538035	Downward Expansion	-51	31
2024-10-18	20.84	22.04	-18.83	1334772	Downward Expansion	-54	34
2024-10-11	20.74	22.10	-17.65	5120164	Downward Expansion	-57	36
2024-10-04	20.65	22.10	-16.31	1024040	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2024-09-27	21.36	22.10	-15.89	1449649	Downward Expansion	-52	41
2024-09-20	21.26	22.09	-14.30	1250015	Downward Expansion	-51	32
2024-09-13	20.88	22.10	-14.72	1147522	Downward Expansion	-60	34
2024-09-06	20.74	22.12	-14.43	2148906	Deceleration	-36	23
2024-08-30	22.16	22.15	-12.45	2201034	Rotation Down	-24	21
2024-08-23	21.73	22.15	-14.15	1789812	Rotation Down	-29	34
2024-08-16	21.59	22.15	-15.84	4426270	Rotation Down	-23	47
2024-08-09	20.51	22.15	-17.22	4815882	Rotation Down	-40	55
2024-08-02	21.69	22.19	-13.67	2109273	Rotation Down	-25	39
2024-07-26	21.45	22.17	-17.05	2664239	Deceleration	-29	30
2024-07-19	22.16	22.15	-17.68	4401618	Deceleration	4	11
2024-07-12	22.29	22.11	-21.43	3366920	Deceleration	22	14
2024-07-05	22.84	22.06	-18.55	2944010	Deceleration	33	15
2024-06-28	22.34	22.00	-18.81	2726165	Upward Expansion	35	21
2024-06-21	22.98	21.99	-17.58	3101313	Upward Expansion	50	31
2024-06-14	23.21	22.00	-14.25	4770768	Upward Expansion	52	32
2024-06-07	23.76	22.00	-9.85	4479933	Upward Expansion	64	37
2024-05-31	23.12	21.93	-9.70	3351275	Upward Expansion	56	33
2024-05-24	22.66	21.87	-13.27	3435404	Upward Expansion	53	47
2024-05-17	22.84	21.81	-11.52	8379289	Upward Expansion	56	58
2024-05-10	23.16	21.73	-8.09	5632110	Upward Expansion	60	57
2024-05-03	23.71	21.65	-4.34	10421467	Upward Expansion	73	64
2024-04-26	23.12	21.56	-5.94	11383410	Balance	66	51
2024-04-19	21.33	21.49	-10.82	5262892	Balance	40	32
2024-04-12	22.61	21.47	-11.13	12587662	Balance	60	37
2024-04-05	21.83	21.42	-12.68	2988878	Balance	35	20
2024-03-29	21.65	21.39	-13.41	6285847	Balance	38	14
2024-03-22	22.61	21.39	-9.46	11482139	Balance	35	16
2024-03-15	20.78	21.33	-14.62	3583442	Balance	-28	34
2024-03-08	20.55	21.33	-16.08	5542141	Balance	-23	25
2024-03-01	21.10	21.38	-10.10	3702517	Balance	18	10
2024-02-23	21.65	21.47	-7.55	4775337	Balance	44	24
2024-02-16	21.56	21.55	-6.53	1848163	Balance	19	20
2024-02-09	21.51	21.66	-4.00	1234377	Balance	11	14
2024-02-02	22.20	21.60	-0.54	8330173	Balance	20	18
2024-01-26	21.79	21.52	-1.80	5434373	Balance	9	8
2024-01-19	21.47	21.47	-1.34	5881863	Balance	-39	16
2024-01-12	21.74	21.43	1.11	10051662	Balance	-38	22
2024-01-05	20.96	21.39	-2.36	1180988	Balance	-16	24
2023-12-29	20.96	21.40	-4.49	1799249	Balance	-16	26
2023-12-22	20.82	21.38	-3.24	1972955	Balance	-17	21
2023-12-15	21.01	21.35	-2.68	3097732	Upward Expansion	13	9
2023-12-08	20.92	21.30	-1.36	5751392	Upward Expansion	40	45
2023-12-01	22.11	21.25	4.15	4983454	Upward Expansion	60	67
2023-11-24	23.35	21.17	11.29	6237752	Upward Expansion	76	73
2023-11-17	23.03	21.08	10.69	8064259	Deceleration	70	50
2023-11-10	21.60	20.95	7.49	2110586	Deceleration	34	16
2023-11-03	21.56	20.87	8.51	2352439	Deceleration	27	13
2023-10-27	20.78	20.79	7.17	1126622	Deceleration	-13	20
2023-10-20	20.37	20.73	3.25	4633003	Deceleration	-18	18
2023-10-13	20.78	20.69	3.33	914354	Deceleration	6	8
2023-10-06	20.92	20.58	5.84	1869087	Deceleration	9	9

Price vs TrendBelow-2.2%

Trend directionRising+3.0%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-9.6%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+0.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-25.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+3.6%

Price momentumNegative-4.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.68×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

12 / ±100

-46.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

14 /100

-47.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

2461 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance58

Rotation Up20

Upward Expansion58

Deceleration89

Rotation Down36

Downward Expansion17

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 32%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 35%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-09-04	2026-10-02	Developing	-4.9%
Balance	2026-07-17	2026-08-28	Developing	+17.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-07-10	New	-6.0%
Balance	2026-05-15	2026-06-12	Developing	+22.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-10	2026-05-08	Developing	-6.8%
Balance	2026-03-13	2026-04-03	New	+16.5%
Rotation Up	2026-01-23	2026-03-06	Developing	-6.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-14	2026-01-16	Developing	+9.7%
Rotation Down	2025-10-31	2025-11-07	New	+0.0%
Balance	2025-08-15	2025-10-24	Developing	-5.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-08-08	Established	-2.3%
Balance	2025-03-14	2025-03-28	New	-4.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-13	2025-03-07	Established	-4.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing59

Stage 2 · Advancing38

Stage 3 · Distribution39

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 15/100
Current Relative Strength: -25.37
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -4.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -43.2%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 43th percentile47 in cohort

Test 2461 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.60×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.68×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 2461 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 17.40falling

Slow Activity TWD 17.46rising

Trend Reference TWD 17.39-2.2% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 18.81-9.6% close margin

Structural low TWD 15.40shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.7%

Annualized volatility +39.2%

From structural high -19.0%

From structural low +21.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	22	-0.2%-23.7% to +22.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.6%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	-1.1%-16.7% to +25.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-7.7%	+30.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+6.0%-13.4% to +29.1%	+71.4%	+71.4%	-21.8%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-7.1%-12.2% to +39.5%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-12.4%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

2461 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map