Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Consumer Cyclical

RICK Stage Analysis

RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 26.07Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 7−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 19/100directional strength

Maturity 28/100lifecycle context

Confidence 74/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -34.4%USD 39.76 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	26.07	26.38	-10.08	176605	Balance	7	19
2026-10-02	26.62	26.22	-8.44	173665	Upward Expansion	19	18
2026-09-25	27.56	26.10	-5.30	184159	Upward Expansion	37	19
2026-09-18	28.02	25.91	-1.17	294689	Upward Expansion	54	35
2026-09-11	29.01	25.75	2.93	188924	Upward Expansion	61	60
2026-09-04	29.27	25.54	2.34	214622	Upward Expansion	62	74
2026-08-28	30.10	25.36	4.52	378521	Upward Expansion	65	77
2026-08-21	30.89	25.16	6.59	403836	Upward Expansion	75	73
2026-08-14	30.78	24.95	2.46	332177	Deceleration	76	49
2026-08-07	28.07	24.77	-6.51	277488	Deceleration	51	25
2026-07-31	25.09	24.68	-13.05	164621	Upward Expansion	30	18
2026-07-24	26.07	24.62	-10.26	159555	Upward Expansion	42	26
2026-07-17	26.18	24.53	-12.46	179766	Upward Expansion	56	37
2026-07-10	26.72	24.42	-15.44	177108	Upward Expansion	60	62
2026-07-03	27.44	24.42	-12.93	169727	Upward Expansion	64	69
2026-06-26	26.99	24.36	-14.90	373258	Upward Expansion	60	65
2026-06-19	28.27	24.27	-16.03	240778	Upward Expansion	73	65
2026-06-12	27.26	24.14	-18.12	261780	Balance	67	38
2026-06-05	24.59	24.02	-25.58	203678	Balance	35	16
2026-05-29	25.30	23.98	-28.16	275925	Balance	43	21
2026-05-22	24.23	23.96	-30.39	214606	Balance	20	14
2026-05-15	24.00	24.03	-31.37	330393	Rotation Up	17	27
2026-05-08	25.28	24.12	-29.27	191706	Rotation Up	20	41
2026-05-01	25.28	24.16	-26.77	188829	Rotation Up	20	31
2026-04-24	25.91	24.34	-25.08	194270	Downward Expansion	25	28
2026-04-17	26.14	24.47	-24.04	231054	Downward Expansion	-3	13
2026-04-10	24.10	24.50	-26.80	349397	Downward Expansion	-31	19
2026-04-03	21.73	24.85	-32.07	369718	Downward Expansion	-60	41
2026-03-27	22.90	25.32	-26.99	559214	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2026-03-20	21.65	25.78	-34.43	578913	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2026-03-13	21.28	26.30	-37.99	297551	Downward Expansion	-72	62
2026-03-06	22.89	26.83	-35.21	353974	Downward Expansion	-59	53
2026-02-27	21.98	27.22	-39.64	312814	Downward Expansion	-69	57
2026-02-20	23.09	27.65	-37.98	209478	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2026-02-13	22.59	28.14	-39.76	333106	Downward Expansion	-65	41
2026-02-06	24.14	28.62	-37.57	434424	Downward Expansion	-43	27
2026-01-30	23.88	29.13	-40.51	341033	Downward Expansion	-46	27
2026-01-23	24.81	29.69	-39.48	337351	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2026-01-16	25.19	30.14	-39.59	442152	Downward Expansion	-55	39
2026-01-09	25.55	30.60	-40.27	350910	Downward Expansion	-58	47
2026-01-02	23.28	31.05	-45.39	499615	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2025-12-26	23.17	31.65	-47.60	349146	Downward Expansion	-65	47
2025-12-19	22.94	32.20	-48.48	701896	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2025-12-12	26.75	32.73	-40.71	749777	Downward Expansion	-46	37
2025-12-05	25.78	33.25	-44.72	629480	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2025-11-28	24.13	33.77	-48.46	350615	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2025-11-21	24.27	34.34	-46.45	745765	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2025-11-14	23.80	34.86	-49.88	371997	Downward Expansion	-73	79
2025-11-07	23.50	35.30	-51.29	551484	Downward Expansion	-77	83
2025-10-31	24.68	35.74	-51.09	505197	Downward Expansion	-78	84
2025-10-24	26.32	36.23	-47.43	368326	Downward Expansion	-73	79
2025-10-17	26.63	36.81	-46.21	480943	Downward Expansion	-75	83
2025-10-10	26.36	37.41	-46.00	647971	Downward Expansion	-83	89
2025-10-03	30.90	38.02	-38.70	620317	Downward Expansion	-65	80
2025-09-26	29.75	38.53	-40.73	1169907	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2025-09-19	27.04	39.17	-46.85	4616667	Downward Expansion	-88	76
2025-09-12	34.50	39.98	-31.49	310180	Downward Expansion	-67	42
2025-09-05	35.74	40.54	-28.31	316986	Downward Expansion	-59	35
2025-08-29	36.77	41.05	-25.96	375070	Downward Expansion	-55	39
2025-08-22	37.41	41.65	-25.39	469814	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2025-08-15	37.03	42.28	-27.31	438349	Downward Expansion	-61	62
2025-08-08	34.63	42.76	-32.12	381261	Downward Expansion	-73	73
2025-08-01	34.88	43.39	-29.72	338735	Downward Expansion	-76	64
2025-07-25	37.73	44.08	-26.20	492116	Downward Expansion	-61	41
2025-07-18	36.95	44.72	-27.63	311663	Downward Expansion	-69	44
2025-07-11	39.55	45.35	-22.06	440861	Downward Expansion	-53	36
2025-07-04	40.55	45.74	-20.68	260352	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2025-06-27	38.42	46.07	-23.82	240854	Downward Expansion	-63	42
2025-06-20	39.01	46.51	-19.78	156129	Downward Expansion	-60	41
2025-06-13	39.21	46.91	-19.63	215091	Downward Expansion	-61	43
2025-06-06	41.12	47.22	-16.45	167431	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2025-05-30	39.69	47.47	-18.00	110686	Downward Expansion	-47	36
2025-05-23	38.71	47.57	-18.83	215374	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2025-05-16	42.43	47.69	-13.58	294437	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2025-05-09	41.47	47.72	-10.15	174828	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2025-05-02	41.15	47.71	-11.41	232729	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2025-04-25	39.91	47.71	-11.69	239480	Downward Expansion	-67	86
2025-04-18	37.01	47.84	-13.41	214687	Rotation Down	-80	91
2025-04-11	36.66	48.11	-16.82	548472	Rotation Down	-61	82
2025-04-04	39.26	48.38	-4.86	452820	Rotation Down	-60	77
2025-03-28	43.97	48.42	-4.53	221143	Rotation Down	-35	65
2025-03-21	44.53	48.45	-6.21	234226	Rotation Down	-36	62
2025-03-14	44.72	48.48	-6.12	423136	Deceleration	-34	42
2025-03-07	45.96	48.46	-6.45	336151	Deceleration	-10	22
2025-02-28	49.03	48.45	-4.02	209359	Deceleration	7	15
2025-02-21	51.29	48.28	-3.54	290420	Deceleration	33	20
2025-02-14	51.37	48.15	-6.08	554703	Deceleration	39	25
2025-02-07	51.19	47.95	-4.33	225928	Upward Expansion	43	28
2025-01-31	54.71	47.71	1.78	259147	Upward Expansion	58	38
2025-01-24	56.28	47.19	2.50	279902	Upward Expansion	69	47
2025-01-17	51.54	46.74	-5.39	294833	Upward Expansion	61	49
2025-01-10	53.39	46.43	-0.02	360572	Upward Expansion	64	63
2025-01-03	55.71	46.07	1.18	404746	Upward Expansion	70	79
2024-12-27	56.82	45.70	1.56	294867	Upward Expansion	81	84
2024-12-20	55.95	45.26	0.01	1208340	Upward Expansion	84	82
2024-12-13	51.24	44.94	-11.28	379473	Upward Expansion	68	78
2024-12-06	50.47	44.80	-12.85	375310	Upward Expansion	63	76
2024-11-29	51.61	44.69	-8.92	460634	Balance	74	78
2024-11-22	50.84	44.64	-10.37	292769	Balance	46	59
2024-11-15	48.66	44.60	-13.31	387832	Balance	36	37
2024-11-08	48.65	44.67	-16.95	572247	Balance	-3	8
2024-11-01	42.44	44.71	-24.21	330046	Balance	-47	27
2024-10-25	42.43	45.08	-26.22	254505	Balance	-48	35
2024-10-18	43.30	45.56	-25.38	329829	Balance	-48	33
2024-10-11	41.15	45.93	-29.61	277430	Balance	-57	33
2024-10-04	41.24	46.34	-29.25	330036	Balance	-54	25
2024-09-27	43.93	46.79	-25.38	365356	Balance	-34	18
2024-09-20	44.90	47.18	-23.88	476478	Balance	-34	19
2024-09-13	44.96	47.52	-23.50	468715	Balance	-35	20
2024-09-06	40.35	47.89	-28.11	310091	Balance	-62	33
2024-08-30	44.78	48.41	-25.73	263841	Balance	-22	12
2024-08-23	45.51	48.95	-25.98	233446	Balance	-23	13
2024-08-16	43.96	49.47	-28.63	531725	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2024-08-09	45.67	50.03	-22.81	785416	Downward Expansion	-31	20
2024-08-02	44.00	50.56	-26.22	565504	Downward Expansion	-36	22
2024-07-26	47.36	51.11	-23.95	342177	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2024-07-19	45.56	51.70	-29.48	558949	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2024-07-12	43.89	52.35	-35.53	748180	Downward Expansion	-65	58
2024-07-05	39.00	52.96	-43.60	631204	Downward Expansion	-85	73
2024-06-28	42.78	53.69	-37.02	639748	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2024-06-21	42.18	54.24	-38.88	422427	Downward Expansion	-76	73
2024-06-14	42.85	54.72	-38.69	430456	Downward Expansion	-78	73
2024-06-07	44.36	55.14	-35.29	291656	Downward Expansion	-74	76
2024-05-31	43.88	55.46	-35.24	926738	Downward Expansion	-83	86
2024-05-24	46.34	55.84	-33.66	350991	Downward Expansion	-76	85
2024-05-17	47.00	56.03	-32.73	515824	Downward Expansion	-78	87
2024-05-10	47.20	56.18	-31.92	451024	Downward Expansion	-82	87
2024-05-03	49.99	56.31	-27.79	223981	Downward Expansion	-67	78
2024-04-26	49.60	56.52	-28.59	180775	Downward Expansion	-75	80
2024-04-19	50.65	56.84	-25.22	295500	Downward Expansion	-74	66
2024-04-12	49.85	57.11	-31.27	433210	Downward Expansion	-82	59
2024-04-05	53.66	57.53	-27.37	271752	Downward Expansion	-67	45
2024-03-29	56.89	57.82	-24.57	142014	Downward Expansion	-59	41
2024-03-22	54.29	58.08	-29.29	149088	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2024-03-15	53.43	58.39	-29.30	223130	Downward Expansion	-63	67
2024-03-08	54.76	58.76	-29.38	286870	Downward Expansion	-54	59
2024-03-01	55.77	59.13	-30.29	219419	Downward Expansion	-50	50
2024-02-23	55.03	59.51	-31.01	195447	Balance	-54	41
2024-02-16	56.19	59.92	-29.76	282727	Balance	-39	28
2024-02-09	55.83	60.31	-32.23	408102	Balance	-21	18
2024-02-02	61.11	60.72	-25.50	203360	Balance	8	9
2024-01-26	61.13	61.16	-25.74	163889	Balance	1	7
2024-01-19	60.62	61.60	-27.11	191095	Rotation Up	15	17
2024-01-12	61.66	61.96	-25.09	254124	Rotation Up	22	39
2024-01-05	60.51	62.40	-25.41	240699	Rotation Up	23	33
2023-12-29	64.92	62.89	-23.84	187880	Rotation Up	33	42
2023-12-22	65.10	63.22	-24.66	337892	Downward Expansion	18	33
2023-12-15	62.16	63.48	-28.62	766402	Downward Expansion	4	20
2023-12-08	60.98	63.83	-28.77	214104	Downward Expansion	-20	25
2023-12-01	59.28	64.15	-31.19	265207	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2023-11-24	56.51	64.61	-35.18	184989	Downward Expansion	-47	42
2023-11-17	55.44	65.16	-36.70	315166	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2023-11-10	54.11	65.76	-37.79	151804	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2023-11-03	55.23	66.40	-35.43	212449	Downward Expansion	-68	84
2023-10-27	51.94	67.00	-36.09	243297	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2023-10-20	51.45	67.82	-39.07	293053	Downward Expansion	-86	94

Price vs TrendBelow-1.2%

Trend directionRising+6.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-34.4%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+2.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-10.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+5.4%

Price momentumPositive+8.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.48×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

7 / ±100

-53.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

19 /100

-41.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

RICK Directional State ↗ RICK Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance59

Rotation Up14

Upward Expansion47

Deceleration94

Rotation Down42

Downward Expansion27

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 16%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 15%Deceleration 5%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 56%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-10-02	Developing	-13.8%
Deceleration	2026-08-07	2026-08-14	New	+9.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-07-31	Developing	-11.2%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-06-12	New	+12.5%
Rotation Up	2026-05-01	2026-05-15	New	-5.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2026-04-24	Extended	-35.1%
Rotation Down	2025-03-21	2025-04-18	Developing	-16.9%
Deceleration	2025-02-14	2025-03-14	Developing	-12.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-06	2025-02-07	Developing	+1.4%
Balance	2024-08-23	2024-11-29	Established	+13.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-03-01	2024-08-16	Established	-21.2%
Balance	2024-01-26	2024-02-23	Developing	-10.0%
Rotation Up	2023-12-29	2024-01-19	New	-6.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing64

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution27

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 17/100
Current Relative Strength: -10.08
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +8.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -14.8%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 47th percentile34 in cohort

Test RICK trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.73×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.48×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore RICK Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 26.97falling

Slow Activity USD 27.33rising

Trend Reference USD 26.38-1.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 39.76-34.4% close margin

Structural low USD 23.26shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.1%

Annualized volatility +33.3%

From structural high -18.3%

From structural low +25.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	14	+2.9%-14.0% to +43.1%	+57.1%	+57.1%	-1.7%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+8.6%-18.9% to +27.5%	+71.4%	+71.4%	+6.2%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+9.6%-22.5% to +37.5%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+6.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-16.2%-24.4% to -7.9%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-20.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

RICK Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map