Weekly structural research · SHZ · Energy

002554 Stage Analysis

China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co., Ltd

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close CNY 2.76Tenure EstablishedBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction -66−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 48/100directional strength

Maturity 76/100lifecycle context

Confidence 86/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -5.9%CNY 2.93 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	2.76	3.22	-12.91	61909296	Downward Expansion	-66	48
2026-09-18	2.77	3.27	-14.88	91456806	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2026-09-11	2.86	3.30	-11.27	149822197	Downward Expansion	-43	32
2026-09-04	2.88	3.34	-11.04	140153697	Downward Expansion	-44	37
2026-08-28	2.99	3.38	-10.72	93280606	Downward Expansion	-49	46
2026-08-21	2.88	3.42	-15.08	25403144	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2026-08-14	2.82	3.45	-18.63	18239400	Downward Expansion	-66	77
2026-08-07	2.82	3.47	-18.81	16735767	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2026-07-31	2.81	3.49	-15.14	16639902	Downward Expansion	-72	86
2026-07-24	2.76	3.51	-18.15	29406472	Downward Expansion	-80	88
2026-07-17	2.76	3.52	-18.10	25090800	Downward Expansion	-87	89
2026-07-10	3.02	3.53	-18.79	39891691	Downward Expansion	-72	72
2026-07-03	3.09	3.54	-20.25	21813445	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2026-06-26	3.02	3.56	-23.36	25750812	Downward Expansion	-76	79
2026-06-19	3.23	3.57	-20.01	97709257	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2026-06-12	3.16	3.59	-16.75	30089147	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2026-06-05	3.10	3.61	-20.57	22252200	Downward Expansion	-71	71
2026-05-29	3.11	3.62	-22.01	108462440	Rotation Down	-71	60
2026-05-22	3.25	3.63	-18.93	132030773	Rotation Down	-38	40
2026-05-15	3.38	3.62	-15.77	185467371	Rotation Down	-24	36
2026-05-08	3.45	3.61	-14.24	107469582	Rotation Down	-22	34
2026-05-01	3.49	3.60	-10.77	114353670	Balance	-18	28
2026-04-24	3.40	3.58	-12.15	155274899	Balance	-22	22
2026-04-17	3.51	3.57	-9.07	166966205	Balance	2	12
2026-04-10	3.68	3.56	-0.82	277802327	Balance	20	19
2026-04-03	3.58	3.53	3.49	217822228	Upward Expansion	20	17
2026-03-27	3.75	3.51	5.39	238948950	Upward Expansion	35	19
2026-03-20	3.62	3.49	0.92	350967799	Upward Expansion	38	27
2026-03-13	4.04	3.46	9.61	575098959	Upward Expansion	57	40
2026-03-06	4.50	3.43	23.60	1033477999	Upward Expansion	75	52
2026-02-27	4.24	3.37	14.58	370705511	Upward Expansion	71	57
2026-02-13	3.80	3.32	6.08	290701476	Upward Expansion	61	65
2026-02-06	4.04	3.29	14.67	448171508	Upward Expansion	63	71
2026-01-30	4.13	3.25	15.21	627598096	Upward Expansion	72	73
2026-01-23	4.14	3.21	14.07	568556290	Deceleration	74	66
2026-01-16	3.78	3.16	5.72	251429721	Deceleration	60	34
2026-01-09	3.55	3.14	0.57	183303943	Deceleration	39	17
2026-01-02	3.19	3.12	-5.57	84891332	Deceleration	19	19
2025-12-26	3.39	3.10	-0.29	243267897	Deceleration	27	21
2025-12-19	3.07	3.08	-6.49	130670644	Deceleration	19	16
2025-12-12	3.08	3.06	-7.24	199872132	Upward Expansion	30	19
2025-12-05	3.49	3.04	5.60	158078955	Upward Expansion	60	47
2025-11-28	3.66	3.01	11.96	223415617	Upward Expansion	68	61
2025-11-21	3.40	2.97	7.83	291401125	Upward Expansion	64	65
2025-11-14	3.82	2.94	15.00	386736965	Upward Expansion	85	86
2025-11-07	3.64	2.89	8.40	405084899	Upward Expansion	82	77
2025-10-31	3.35	2.84	0.08	349765294	Upward Expansion	68	60
2025-10-24	3.48	2.82	4.66	672473876	Upward Expansion	81	53
2025-10-17	3.06	2.79	-3.52	154438757	Upward Expansion	55	36
2025-10-10	3.09	2.78	-7.44	62171805	Upward Expansion	60	51
2025-10-03	3.02	2.76	-10.82	45722700	Upward Expansion	57	55
2025-09-26	3.02	2.74	-8.90	117915000	Upward Expansion	57	46
2025-09-19	3.11	2.73	-5.43	235139066	Upward Expansion	67	52
2025-09-12	3.10	2.71	-4.98	235890477	Upward Expansion	68	45
2025-09-05	2.82	2.69	-11.58	248701094	Upward Expansion	53	33
2025-08-29	3.05	2.68	-5.44	232262372	Upward Expansion	67	51
2025-08-22	2.98	2.66	-3.76	150267224	Upward Expansion	62	39
2025-08-15	2.88	2.64	-2.86	126066757	Upward Expansion	55	33
2025-08-08	2.92	2.62	2.82	137227945	Upward Expansion	59	34
2025-08-01	2.82	2.60	0.48	140915300	Upward Expansion	41	27
2025-07-25	2.85	2.59	-0.09	148510130	Upward Expansion	45	29
2025-07-18	2.79	2.58	0.14	131918350	Upward Expansion	53	31
2025-07-11	2.87	2.58	5.23	151960700	Upward Expansion	60	53
2025-07-04	2.81	2.59	5.03	215892088	Upward Expansion	60	63
2025-06-27	2.74	2.60	3.80	496939457	Rotation Up	63	70
2025-06-20	3.06	2.60	20.43	787595195	Rotation Up	53	68
2025-06-13	2.97	2.59	16.12	253684921	Balance	51	59
2025-06-06	2.78	2.58	8.42	107413011	Balance	30	29
2025-05-30	2.65	2.58	5.02	98300006	Balance	-9	14
2025-05-23	2.54	2.58	-0.32	94704103	Balance	-23	14
2025-05-16	2.57	2.58	0.20	91661319	Downward Expansion	-26	12
2025-05-09	2.53	2.58	-1.05	102496948	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2025-05-02	2.41	2.58	-3.82	74400234	Downward Expansion	-55	53
2025-04-25	2.37	2.59	-5.86	113842872	Balance	-56	53
2025-04-18	2.36	2.60	-5.27	94001488	Balance	-58	41
2025-04-11	2.31	2.59	-8.23	162982586	Balance	-49	23
2025-04-04	2.54	2.59	-4.85	132951500	Balance	4	15
2025-03-28	2.58	2.58	-6.03	582401107	Rotation Up	16	18
2025-03-21	2.96	2.57	6.56	247471883	Rotation Up	50	29
2025-03-14	2.53	2.54	-11.43	106644240	Balance	-10	11
2025-03-07	2.39	2.53	-15.65	87943228	Balance	-21	17
2025-02-28	2.49	2.52	-10.62	97473423	Balance	-10	9
2025-02-21	2.50	2.52	-13.73	83376730	Deceleration	-3	9
2025-02-14	2.51	2.50	-11.88	52622450	Deceleration	-14	15
2025-02-07	2.52	2.49	-10.30	37546943	Deceleration	-17	22
2025-01-31	2.42	2.48	-10.78	10520500	Deceleration	-20	34
2025-01-24	2.43	2.47	-12.26	51702436	Deceleration	-19	30
2025-01-17	2.49	2.46	-9.56	67012029	Deceleration	5	24
2025-01-10	2.35	2.45	-12.16	61406920	Deceleration	4	20
2025-01-03	2.41	2.45	-11.50	76347000	Upward Expansion	20	15
2024-12-27	2.62	2.45	-11.20	230347636	Upward Expansion	56	38
2024-12-20	2.82	2.45	-4.91	123809245	Upward Expansion	61	56
2024-12-13	3.00	2.44	0.01	188602531	Upward Expansion	70	68
2024-12-06	3.09	2.43	1.90	211051323	Upward Expansion	80	63
2024-11-29	2.83	2.42	-5.45	218928302	Upward Expansion	69	56
2024-11-22	2.76	2.41	-6.74	144718829	Upward Expansion	65	52
2024-11-15	2.64	2.41	-13.80	116746100	Rotation Up	61	55
2024-11-08	2.85	2.42	-10.92	193298436	Rotation Up	53	56
2024-11-01	2.62	2.42	-13.10	163133848	Rotation Up	37	41
2024-10-25	2.64	2.43	-14.39	89201182	Rotation Up	33	57
2024-10-18	2.51	2.44	-17.11	84124185	Rotation Up	24	50
2024-10-11	2.53	2.45	-14.55	178443959	Rotation Up	24	43
2024-10-04	2.68	2.45	-14.10	65498555	Downward Expansion	42	42
2024-09-27	2.49	2.45	-12.18	168051295	Downward Expansion	5	13
2024-09-20	2.28	2.46	-5.82	97731054	Downward Expansion	-37	23
2024-09-13	2.28	2.48	-5.12	100293123	Downward Expansion	-43	33
2024-09-06	2.13	2.48	-13.29	33511867	Downward Expansion	-64	47
2024-08-30	2.21	2.49	-12.86	46136500	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2024-08-23	2.13	2.52	-14.78	38330168	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2024-08-16	2.23	2.55	-13.02	82837836	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2024-08-09	2.26	2.58	-12.70	114763036	Downward Expansion	-51	46
2024-08-02	2.23	2.61	-15.84	41659500	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2024-07-26	2.14	2.64	-20.07	33330303	Downward Expansion	-70	73
2024-07-19	2.14	2.67	-23.28	31159264	Downward Expansion	-71	78
2024-07-12	2.19	2.71	-21.54	47599580	Downward Expansion	-67	78
2024-07-05	2.21	2.74	-19.71	40615268	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2024-06-28	2.16	2.78	-23.20	41098467	Downward Expansion	-77	88
2024-06-21	2.17	2.82	-25.05	42190137	Downward Expansion	-83	88
2024-06-14	2.28	2.86	-23.31	35823600	Downward Expansion	-79	82
2024-06-07	2.29	2.89	-23.43	89972031	Downward Expansion	-84	77
2024-05-31	2.56	2.93	-15.92	61520972	Downward Expansion	-67	60
2024-05-24	2.59	2.96	-15.82	106978746	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2024-05-17	2.72	2.98	-14.55	67397120	Downward Expansion	-43	42
2024-05-10	2.75	3.01	-14.27	90053400	Downward Expansion	-37	27
2024-05-03	2.70	3.04	-14.98	52498500	Downward Expansion	-50	26
2024-04-26	2.67	3.06	-15.23	178835627	Downward Expansion	-41	18
2024-04-19	2.86	3.09	-7.80	152891256	Downward Expansion	-26	16
2024-04-12	2.92	3.12	-5.45	112804935	Downward Expansion	-27	18
2024-04-05	2.99	3.14	-6.44	78324552	Downward Expansion	-29	19
2024-03-29	2.81	3.16	-10.78	88875570	Downward Expansion	-38	26
2024-03-22	2.79	3.19	-13.16	75633697	Downward Expansion	-42	31
2024-03-15	2.77	3.22	-14.44	70452072	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2024-03-08	2.66	3.25	-15.97	88541622	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2024-03-01	2.77	3.29	-13.42	102661368	Downward Expansion	-65	69
2024-02-23	2.68	3.32	-13.09	82142187	Downward Expansion	-66	81
2024-02-09	2.36	3.36	-21.48	109298886	Downward Expansion	-90	94
2024-02-02	2.52	3.41	-8.60	75133595	Downward Expansion	-91	83
2024-01-26	3.01	3.44	0.10	82015750	Downward Expansion	-68	55
2024-01-19	2.92	3.46	-3.11	80017650	Downward Expansion	-83	64
2024-01-12	3.22	3.49	4.28	72329490	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2024-01-05	3.16	3.50	1.04	45818366	Downward Expansion	-64	65
2023-12-29	3.12	3.52	-4.41	54266575	Downward Expansion	-71	74
2023-12-22	3.12	3.54	-1.25	52209439	Downward Expansion	-75	74
2023-12-15	3.20	3.56	-0.48	59737702	Downward Expansion	-71	66
2023-12-08	3.17	3.58	-3.25	59212015	Downward Expansion	-78	62
2023-12-01	3.32	3.62	-0.53	48302084	Downward Expansion	-64	48
2023-11-24	3.37	3.64	-0.25	62075492	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2023-11-17	3.38	3.67	-1.37	73503387	Downward Expansion	-59	42
2023-11-10	3.34	3.70	-2.51	67755817	Downward Expansion	-65	51
2023-11-03	3.39	3.72	0.15	65203184	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2023-10-27	3.48	3.73	3.68	83635071	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2023-10-20	3.37	3.74	2.59	125915302	Downward Expansion	-71	51
2023-10-13	3.45	3.76	-0.13	77333032	Downward Expansion	-67	43
2023-09-29	3.60	3.77	3.65	66821662	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2023-09-22	3.50	3.79	0.14	41686057	Downward Expansion	-68	56
2023-09-15	3.60	3.81	3.29	48239426	Downward Expansion	-60	62

Price vs TrendBelow-14.2%

Trend directionFalling-8.5%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-5.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-6.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-12.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+10.5%

Price momentumNegative-26.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.34×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-66 / ±100

-16.9 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

48 /100

+1.7 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

002554 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance23

Rotation Up26

Upward Expansion6

Deceleration60

Rotation Down49

Downward Expansion77

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-15 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 26%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 47%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-06-05	2026-09-25	Established	-11.0%
Rotation Down	2026-05-08	2026-05-29	New	-9.9%
Balance	2026-04-10	2026-05-01	New	-5.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-30	2026-04-03	Developing	-13.3%
Deceleration	2025-12-19	2026-01-23	Developing	+34.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-04	2025-12-12	Established	+9.6%
Rotation Up	2025-06-20	2025-06-27	New	-10.5%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-06-13	New	+16.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-05-16	New	+6.6%
Balance	2025-04-04	2025-04-25	New	-6.7%
Rotation Up	2025-03-21	2025-03-28	New	-12.8%
Balance	2025-02-28	2025-03-14	New	+1.6%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-02-21	Developing	+6.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-22	2025-01-03	Developing	-12.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing55

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution16

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 96/100
Current Relative Strength: -12.91
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -26.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -23.2%
Energy regime cohort: 80th percentile15 in cohort

Test 002554 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.93×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.34×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 002554 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 2.81falling

Slow Activity CNY 3.01falling

Trend Reference CNY 3.22-14.2% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 2.93-5.9% close margin

Structural low CNY 2.71shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.9%

Annualized volatility +23.0%

From structural high -46.2%

From structural low +1.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	22	-0.6%-26.6% to +17.3%	+45.5%	+54.5%	+1.1%	+90.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	-5.6%-26.0% to +21.2%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-2.0%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-1.9%-29.1% to +39.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.9%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-5.6%-38.1% to +27.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-5.3%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

002554 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map