Weekly structural research · HKG · Industrials

1618 Stage Analysis

Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close HKD 1.30Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^HSI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -72−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 72/100directional strength

Maturity 81/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -19.7%HKD 1.62 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	1.30	1.50	-20.33	25216370	Downward Expansion	-72	72
2026-09-25	1.29	1.51	-23.64	46361000	Downward Expansion	-81	75
2026-09-18	1.34	1.54	-21.98	56966500	Downward Expansion	-73	58
2026-09-11	1.40	1.55	-19.32	65745009	Downward Expansion	-59	50
2026-09-04	1.36	1.57	-25.43	51942548	Downward Expansion	-78	65
2026-08-28	1.44	1.58	-21.08	5830000	Downward Expansion	-58	47
2026-08-21	1.42	1.60	-24.41	3284000	Downward Expansion	-64	46
2026-08-14	1.41	1.61	-22.96	3907558	Downward Expansion	-57	34
2026-08-07	1.44	1.62	-23.41	4319000	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2026-07-31	1.50	1.64	-21.57	4736000	Downward Expansion	-34	29
2026-07-24	1.53	1.65	-17.28	6625000	Downward Expansion	-42	31
2026-07-17	1.50	1.66	-17.78	11520912	Downward Expansion	-52	52
2026-07-10	1.47	1.68	-18.29	22537000	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2026-07-03	1.40	1.69	-19.59	14410000	Downward Expansion	-68	84
2026-06-26	1.33	1.72	-21.47	17629000	Downward Expansion	-91	95
2026-06-19	1.41	1.75	-21.20	40344000	Downward Expansion	-82	90
2026-06-12	1.46	1.78	-21.10	10664000	Downward Expansion	-73	87
2026-06-05	1.46	1.80	-21.97	8836000	Downward Expansion	-78	81
2026-05-29	1.50	1.83	-20.63	59192984	Downward Expansion	-73	65
2026-05-22	1.49	1.86	-22.54	60941088	Downward Expansion	-79	65
2026-05-15	1.54	1.90	-21.11	70352192	Downward Expansion	-75	64
2026-05-08	1.62	1.93	-18.46	67442761	Downward Expansion	-67	64
2026-05-01	1.58	1.97	-18.60	80952000	Downward Expansion	-70	80
2026-04-24	1.56	2.01	-20.29	55862000	Downward Expansion	-77	88
2026-04-17	1.59	2.03	-19.43	87469531	Downward Expansion	-76	88
2026-04-10	1.63	2.05	-16.65	61032036	Downward Expansion	-75	86
2026-04-03	1.62	2.08	-14.71	82910662	Downward Expansion	-81	86
2026-03-27	1.69	2.10	-10.48	89995236	Downward Expansion	-76	73
2026-03-20	1.74	2.12	-9.00	117659984	Downward Expansion	-73	51
2026-03-13	1.86	2.14	-3.41	155101000	Downward Expansion	-44	36
2026-03-06	1.83	2.15	-5.92	163195000	Downward Expansion	-47	34
2026-02-27	1.93	2.15	-3.87	140759066	Downward Expansion	-43	33
2026-02-20	1.86	2.14	-6.48	4734331	Downward Expansion	-48	41
2026-02-13	1.86	2.14	-6.88	76067886	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2026-02-06	1.85	2.14	-7.30	157838628	Downward Expansion	-62	62
2026-01-30	1.85	2.13	-10.14	318289147	Rotation Down	-64	72
2026-01-23	1.81	2.12	-10.12	160576772	Rotation Down	-43	66
2026-01-16	1.83	2.11	-9.62	198790637	Rotation Down	-43	67
2026-01-09	1.84	2.10	-7.18	247512000	Rotation Down	-40	63
2026-01-02	1.90	2.09	-4.67	159582834	Rotation Down	-28	57
2025-12-26	1.89	2.08	-3.37	54441000	Rotation Down	-30	50
2025-12-19	1.90	2.06	-2.54	172283000	Deceleration	-30	35
2025-12-12	1.87	2.05	-5.25	778240000	Deceleration	-13	21
2025-12-05	2.38	2.04	19.90	165308000	Deceleration	16	16
2025-11-28	2.17	2.01	10.59	101409475	Deceleration	18	19
2025-11-21	2.14	1.98	11.88	135493652	Deceleration	22	21
2025-11-14	2.34	1.96	16.17	124552548	Deceleration	38	24
2025-11-07	2.35	1.93	18.34	157944901	Upward Expansion	42	30
2025-10-31	2.37	1.89	21.08	255254062	Upward Expansion	59	47
2025-10-24	2.60	1.87	31.89	186193828	Upward Expansion	63	57
2025-10-17	2.45	1.83	29.48	461715818	Upward Expansion	64	59
2025-10-10	2.83	1.80	44.28	483097951	Upward Expansion	86	71
2025-10-03	2.68	1.76	33.34	383078000	Upward Expansion	87	71
2025-09-26	2.36	1.73	22.61	207235345	Upward Expansion	72	65
2025-09-19	2.21	1.70	13.65	200110000	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-09-12	2.36	1.68	22.58	204990000	Upward Expansion	77	84
2025-09-05	2.31	1.65	25.31	313511500	Upward Expansion	77	91
2025-08-29	2.27	1.62	25.50	226591454	Upward Expansion	84	94
2025-08-22	2.23	1.60	22.56	323960000	Upward Expansion	90	95
2025-08-15	2.26	1.57	24.81	439827500	Upward Expansion	97	97
2025-08-08	1.89	1.55	6.30	146269000	Upward Expansion	88	89
2025-08-01	1.68	1.53	-4.33	94966038	Upward Expansion	66	81
2025-07-25	1.80	1.52	-1.47	203346165	Upward Expansion	89	92
2025-07-18	1.70	1.52	-5.04	111191614	Rotation Up	84	84
2025-07-11	1.65	1.51	-5.45	100697386	Rotation Up	53	63
2025-07-04	1.60	1.51	-8.22	73457552	Balance	31	32
2025-06-27	1.55	1.51	-12.78	50025174	Balance	20	18
2025-06-20	1.47	1.51	-14.91	38413420	Downward Expansion	-27	17
2025-06-13	1.53	1.52	-13.37	39126046	Downward Expansion	-13	13
2025-06-06	1.50	1.52	-15.14	25138982	Downward Expansion	-30	17
2025-05-30	1.48	1.52	-14.94	16551712	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-05-23	1.46	1.53	-17.64	20180084	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2025-05-16	1.48	1.54	-16.10	32194000	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2025-05-09	1.44	1.54	-17.02	21716000	Downward Expansion	-61	66
2025-05-02	1.42	1.55	-17.16	18086000	Downward Expansion	-64	71
2025-04-25	1.43	1.56	-14.87	23562469	Downward Expansion	-61	65
2025-04-18	1.40	1.56	-14.68	19118706	Balance	-69	57
2025-04-11	1.42	1.56	-11.99	102046462	Balance	-53	29
2025-04-04	1.52	1.55	-14.28	46605648	Balance	12	15
2025-03-28	1.57	1.54	-14.07	37194301	Balance	44	40
2025-03-21	1.60	1.53	-14.00	74064425	Balance	48	41
2025-03-14	1.62	1.52	-13.94	73565990	Balance	55	34
2025-03-07	1.57	1.52	-18.45	51166000	Balance	29	19
2025-02-28	1.55	1.51	-15.50	69885048	Balance	19	13
2025-02-21	1.52	1.51	-19.39	63642763	Balance	-0	5
2025-02-14	1.53	1.50	-16.28	68045000	Rotation Down	15	12
2025-02-07	1.51	1.50	-11.91	30564700	Rotation Down	-16	24
2025-01-31	1.48	1.50	-10.08	3517000	Rotation Down	-19	41
2025-01-24	1.51	1.50	-7.90	30920000	Rotation Down	-15	35
2025-01-17	1.48	1.50	-7.78	21829444	Deceleration	-17	32
2025-01-10	1.44	1.50	-7.93	36485500	Deceleration	-6	15
2025-01-03	1.51	1.50	-7.20	23552824	Deceleration	22	13
2024-12-27	1.61	1.51	-3.04	15661000	Deceleration	33	16
2024-12-20	1.56	1.51	-4.24	49602190	Deceleration	30	16
2024-12-13	1.56	1.51	-5.50	64758000	Deceleration	33	16
2024-12-06	1.60	1.51	-2.68	28304000	Deceleration	37	18
2024-11-29	1.59	1.51	-1.08	49830000	Upward Expansion	40	24
2024-11-22	1.60	1.50	0.56	114583658	Upward Expansion	44	29
2024-11-15	1.58	1.49	-1.57	77291640	Upward Expansion	56	38
2024-11-08	1.73	1.49	1.37	139038448	Upward Expansion	70	58
2024-11-01	1.66	1.48	-1.45	95456491	Rotation Up	64	67
2024-10-25	1.61	1.47	-5.25	86606269	Rotation Up	52	51
2024-10-18	1.65	1.47	-3.49	166024197	Rotation Up	28	42
2024-10-11	1.67	1.46	-4.44	338920000	Rotation Up	33	38
2024-10-04	1.79	1.46	-4.54	154601248	Rotation Up	22	21
2024-09-27	1.42	1.45	-16.50	177203208	Downward Expansion	-61	67
2024-09-20	1.24	1.45	-18.15	41178000	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2024-09-13	1.16	1.46	-19.69	67923549	Downward Expansion	-92	95
2024-09-06	1.23	1.47	-15.71	65083000	Downward Expansion	-89	84
2024-08-30	1.33	1.47	-12.14	56116842	Rotation Down	-80	69
2024-08-23	1.41	1.47	-4.62	24764825	Rotation Down	-35	43
2024-08-16	1.44	1.47	-1.71	23252000	Rotation Down	-30	42
2024-08-09	1.41	1.47	-1.94	41914136	Balance	-27	43
2024-08-02	1.43	1.47	0.10	34430550	Balance	-22	30
2024-07-26	1.43	1.47	-0.50	42537000	Balance	-21	21
2024-07-19	1.42	1.46	-3.50	51988783	Balance	4	14
2024-07-12	1.49	1.46	-4.13	50870000	Upward Expansion	24	17
2024-07-05	1.51	1.46	0.18	42917000	Upward Expansion	31	18
2024-06-28	1.47	1.45	-2.55	46123323	Upward Expansion	31	16
2024-06-21	1.50	1.45	-1.98	33991188	Upward Expansion	53	32
2024-06-14	1.54	1.44	0.81	38836000	Upward Expansion	58	47
2024-06-07	1.58	1.44	0.76	66107663	Upward Expansion	61	67
2024-05-31	1.56	1.43	1.06	84692036	Upward Expansion	58	64
2024-05-24	1.56	1.42	-1.89	95194000	Upward Expansion	57	58
2024-05-17	1.63	1.42	-2.36	119438060	Balance	69	56
2024-05-10	1.51	1.41	-6.86	114458257	Balance	40	16
2024-05-03	1.39	1.41	-12.26	75033000	Balance	5	12
2024-04-26	1.45	1.41	-5.18	78040041	Balance	20	20
2024-04-19	1.41	1.41	0.04	110400733	Balance	22	17
2024-04-12	1.39	1.42	-5.04	137957871	Balance	23	14
2024-04-05	1.38	1.42	-5.94	109617963	Rotation Up	40	25
2024-03-29	1.53	1.43	5.72	34625632	Rotation Up	34	49
2024-03-22	1.51	1.43	4.85	92365723	Rotation Up	32	49
2024-03-15	1.56	1.43	6.69	84516481	Rotation Up	44	57
2024-03-08	1.51	1.43	5.77	60868225	Balance	27	40
2024-03-01	1.47	1.44	1.30	44203804	Balance	20	22
2024-02-23	1.49	1.45	1.87	53590000	Balance	3	9
2024-02-16	1.40	1.46	-1.24	10217108	Balance	-16	11
2024-02-09	1.39	1.47	1.46	36322000	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2024-02-02	1.36	1.48	1.20	81515000	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2024-01-26	1.44	1.49	4.91	98429455	Downward Expansion	-28	18
2024-01-19	1.29	1.50	-1.38	38666863	Downward Expansion	-69	39
2024-01-12	1.38	1.51	-0.87	21098521	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2024-01-05	1.39	1.52	-1.68	17932553	Downward Expansion	-47	35
2023-12-29	1.39	1.54	-3.78	14141550	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2023-12-22	1.33	1.55	-4.13	15228446	Downward Expansion	-66	56
2023-12-15	1.34	1.56	-5.95	23324766	Downward Expansion	-66	57
2023-12-08	1.32	1.57	-4.64	16301033	Downward Expansion	-74	64
2023-12-01	1.35	1.59	-5.54	25900603	Downward Expansion	-70	60
2023-11-24	1.39	1.62	-6.99	15869286	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2023-11-17	1.37	1.64	-7.79	21420660	Downward Expansion	-70	60
2023-11-10	1.37	1.66	-6.25	37260251	Downward Expansion	-74	67
2023-11-03	1.41	1.68	-5.50	39125849	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2023-10-27	1.43	1.69	-2.68	26850588	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2023-10-20	1.38	1.71	-5.09	48437074	Downward Expansion	-82	79
2023-10-13	1.45	1.72	-3.51	61220001	Downward Expansion	-74	63

Price vs TrendBelow-13.1%

Trend directionFalling-9.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-19.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-5.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-20.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-0.7%

Price momentumNegative-19.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.84×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-72 / ±100

+5.6 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

72 /100

+7.0 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1618 Directional State ↗ 1618 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance16

Rotation Up11

Upward Expansion15

Deceleration40

Rotation Down73

Downward Expansion88

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 16%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 18%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 42%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-10-02	Extended	-29.7%
Rotation Down	2025-12-26	2026-01-30	Developing	-2.1%
Deceleration	2025-11-14	2025-12-19	Developing	-18.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-11-07	Established	+30.6%
Rotation Up	2025-07-11	2025-07-18	New	+2.9%
Balance	2025-06-27	2025-07-04	New	+3.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-06-20	Developing	+2.7%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-04-18	Developing	-7.6%
Rotation Down	2025-01-24	2025-02-14	New	+1.3%
Deceleration	2024-12-06	2025-01-17	Developing	-7.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-08	2024-11-29	New	-8.4%
Rotation Up	2024-10-04	2024-11-01	Developing	-7.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-06	2024-09-27	New	+15.7%
Rotation Down	2024-08-16	2024-08-30	New	-8.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing58

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution13

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^HSI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 88/100
Current Relative Strength: -20.33
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -19.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -15.2%
Industrials regime cohort: 51th percentile222 in cohort

Test 1618 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.97×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.84×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1618 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity HKD 1.32falling

Slow Activity HKD 1.43falling

Trend Reference HKD 1.50-13.1% close margin

Current Fair Value HKD 1.62-19.7% close margin

Structural low HKD 1.26shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.4%

Annualized volatility +23.1%

From structural high -59.0%

From structural low +3.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^HSI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	25	-3.1%-11.5% to +45.7%	+40.0%	+60.0%	-0.1%	+84.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+2.4%-18.2% to +29.9%	+55.6%	+44.4%	-5.0%	+55.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+4.7%-21.9% to +81.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+6.1%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+2.8%-21.3% to +88.1%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+12.2%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1618 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map