Weekly structural research · GER · Financial Services

MWB0 Stage Analysis

mwb fairtrade Wphdlsbank AG N

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 9.95Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and stable.

Direction -32−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 33/100directional strength

Maturity 38/100lifecycle context

Confidence 60/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedstable separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +53.6%EUR 6.48 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	9.95	10.38	-1.16	8664	Deceleration	-32	33
2026-09-25	10.20	10.37	1.02	7893	Deceleration	-4	15
2026-09-18	10.30	10.35	2.76	4806	Deceleration	8	16
2026-09-11	10.60	10.34	5.15	4255	Deceleration	28	21
2026-09-04	10.90	10.30	6.65	3354	Deceleration	35	21
2026-08-28	10.50	10.25	1.13	2460	Upward Expansion	39	26
2026-08-21	10.80	10.23	5.95	687	Upward Expansion	62	52
2026-08-14	11.10	10.18	7.95	887	Upward Expansion	66	76
2026-08-07	11.20	10.12	9.81	0	Upward Expansion	66	79
2026-07-31	11.60	10.04	17.10	3717	Upward Expansion	89	85
2026-07-24	11.20	9.95	15.92	2642	Upward Expansion	82	53
2026-07-17	10.61	9.87	11.33	1411	Upward Expansion	63	44
2026-07-10	10.71	9.81	11.83	3463	Upward Expansion	69	47
2026-07-03	10.06	9.76	2.68	3372	Upward Expansion	61	55
2026-06-26	10.89	9.72	16.67	1575	Upward Expansion	78	83
2026-06-19	10.61	9.66	12.85	4234	Upward Expansion	69	79
2026-06-12	10.70	9.61	15.94	1415	Upward Expansion	75	78
2026-06-05	10.50	9.56	13.65	419	Upward Expansion	66	63
2026-05-29	10.50	9.51	12.45	12244	Upward Expansion	67	53
2026-05-22	10.20	9.47	10.56	7226	Upward Expansion	60	33
2026-05-15	9.85	9.41	11.35	2834	Upward Expansion	49	23
2026-05-08	9.75	9.35	8.88	892	Upward Expansion	46	23
2026-05-01	9.65	9.28	8.29	1540	Upward Expansion	37	21
2026-04-24	9.90	9.21	12.21	21	Upward Expansion	40	21
2026-04-17	9.90	9.15	9.99	14511	Upward Expansion	40	19
2026-04-10	9.85	9.06	13.80	2736	Upward Expansion	39	20
2026-04-03	9.50	8.98	13.11	13387	Upward Expansion	39	24
2026-03-27	9.60	8.93	19.45	4109	Upward Expansion	52	33
2026-03-20	9.85	8.89	23.01	5577	Upward Expansion	57	40
2026-03-13	10.30	8.85	23.56	15672	Upward Expansion	72	52
2026-03-06	9.65	8.79	16.11	14193	Upward Expansion	58	43
2026-02-27	9.85	8.77	11.63	529	Upward Expansion	66	47
2026-02-20	9.85	8.73	12.64	7185	Upward Expansion	71	55
2026-02-13	9.50	8.72	11.20	15439	Upward Expansion	59	57
2026-02-06	9.25	8.67	10.12	31226	Upward Expansion	58	59
2026-01-30	9.90	8.62	19.77	17241	Upward Expansion	81	77
2026-01-23	9.35	8.54	12.65	2420	Deceleration	66	49
2026-01-16	9.30	8.50	11.26	8733	Deceleration	64	34
2026-01-09	8.90	8.44	7.64	12791	Deceleration	36	19
2026-01-02	8.85	8.43	11.09	9583	Deceleration	38	22
2025-12-26	8.70	8.43	11.13	5105	Upward Expansion	41	26
2025-12-19	8.90	8.42	14.94	1711	Upward Expansion	46	33
2025-12-12	9.05	8.39	18.43	4498	Upward Expansion	60	45
2025-12-05	8.95	8.36	18.79	11001	Upward Expansion	61	60
2025-11-28	9.05	8.33	22.64	4702	Upward Expansion	64	74
2025-11-21	9.20	8.28	30.25	7314	Upward Expansion	70	78
2025-11-14	9.05	8.23	25.55	2141	Upward Expansion	67	75
2025-11-07	9.15	8.18	30.16	141	Upward Expansion	72	65
2025-10-31	9.20	8.12	30.34	7037	Balance	63	41
2025-10-24	8.40	8.02	19.14	7801	Balance	7	7
2025-10-17	8.05	7.96	17.44	4216	Rotation Down	-21	15
2025-10-10	7.75	7.94	12.50	1542	Rotation Down	-19	32
2025-10-03	7.60	7.89	10.92	3093	Deceleration	-23	38
2025-09-26	7.95	7.82	20.33	1306	Deceleration	-19	30
2025-09-19	7.35	7.74	13.06	4490	Upward Expansion	-14	28
2025-09-12	7.50	7.65	16.23	7390	Upward Expansion	3	14
2025-09-05	7.90	7.57	24.16	8020	Upward Expansion	26	14
2025-08-29	8.50	7.47	33.25	9468	Upward Expansion	54	38
2025-08-22	8.65	7.34	34.73	5280	Upward Expansion	57	45
2025-08-15	8.50	7.21	34.03	3637	Upward Expansion	60	69
2025-08-08	9.00	7.07	44.86	4246	Upward Expansion	69	74
2025-08-01	8.70	6.92	46.44	19533	Upward Expansion	61	57
2025-07-25	9.55	6.76	57.57	21997	Deceleration	78	47
2025-07-18	7.84	6.59	31.05	645	Deceleration	32	19
2025-07-11	7.75	6.47	31.13	5488	Deceleration	35	22
2025-07-04	7.50	6.38	30.84	3577	Upward Expansion	40	25
2025-06-27	8.08	6.24	40.74	4024	Upward Expansion	47	37
2025-06-20	7.75	6.10	40.20	3827	Upward Expansion	60	46
2025-06-13	8.42	5.96	52.89	6208	Upward Expansion	63	52
2025-06-06	8.76	5.80	55.79	8649	Upward Expansion	73	56
2025-05-30	8.47	5.64	54.55	31553	Upward Expansion	72	56
2025-05-23	8.04	5.48	50.90	36673	Upward Expansion	67	55
2025-05-16	8.04	5.32	51.65	6505	Upward Expansion	69	58
2025-05-09	8.08	5.16	56.07	49561	Upward Expansion	72	62
2025-05-02	7.75	4.99	54.21	26033	Upward Expansion	72	63
2025-04-25	7.65	4.84	60.01	44678	Upward Expansion	75	64
2025-04-18	7.65	4.69	69.80	4082	Upward Expansion	83	70
2025-04-11	7.26	4.54	70.22	20296	Upward Expansion	81	71
2025-04-04	6.20	4.41	45.13	37014	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-03-28	6.63	4.32	43.57	8657	Upward Expansion	75	91
2025-03-21	7.36	4.21	57.09	27733	Upward Expansion	98	99
2025-03-14	6.25	4.09	34.49	18713	Upward Expansion	92	94
2025-03-07	5.47	3.99	19.01	12176	Upward Expansion	75	64
2025-02-28	5.47	3.92	22.39	21731	Upward Expansion	80	64
2025-02-21	4.89	3.85	11.74	2362	Upward Expansion	65	62
2025-02-14	4.94	3.81	12.44	1446	Upward Expansion	72	74
2025-02-07	4.84	3.75	14.38	8940	Upward Expansion	70	67
2025-01-31	4.78	3.71	13.72	14993	Upward Expansion	71	59
2025-01-24	4.80	3.68	16.28	2150	Upward Expansion	76	50
2025-01-17	4.30	3.65	6.86	917	Upward Expansion	59	39
2025-01-10	4.32	3.63	11.07	14377	Upward Expansion	58	44
2025-01-03	4.07	3.61	6.40	14101	Upward Expansion	59	69
2024-12-27	4.20	3.60	9.63	1981	Upward Expansion	59	64
2024-12-20	4.34	3.58	14.33	22080	Rotation Up	66	63
2024-12-13	5.08	3.57	31.44	76071	Rotation Up	62	65
2024-12-06	3.39	3.53	-11.44	6311	Rotation Up	7	15
2024-11-29	3.68	3.54	0.03	725	Rotation Up	24	51
2024-11-22	3.68	3.54	2.15	0	Rotation Up	23	48
2024-11-15	3.66	3.54	2.61	3647	Rotation Up	22	36
2024-11-08	3.82	3.54	7.54	6880	Downward Expansion	34	34
2024-11-01	3.62	3.55	2.05	2481	Downward Expansion	-16	11
2024-10-25	3.49	3.57	-2.61	6907	Downward Expansion	-50	35
2024-10-18	3.11	3.60	-14.15	12175	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2024-10-11	3.05	3.61	-14.83	2135	Downward Expansion	-73	72
2024-10-04	3.23	3.60	-8.77	1413	Downward Expansion	-61	61
2024-09-27	3.18	3.59	-12.32	450	Downward Expansion	-67	60
2024-09-20	3.18	3.57	-9.20	2331	Downward Expansion	-72	56
2024-09-13	3.34	3.55	-4.78	2752	Deceleration	-33	22
2024-09-06	3.49	3.54	1.32	2716	Deceleration	-15	17
2024-08-30	3.43	3.53	-3.74	0	Deceleration	-28	28
2024-08-23	3.54	3.53	0.68	3500	Rotation Down	-26	25
2024-08-16	3.33	3.52	-4.04	0	Rotation Down	-25	37
2024-08-09	3.35	3.52	-0.66	1367	Deceleration	-24	41
2024-08-02	3.50	3.51	3.58	6235	Deceleration	-13	25
2024-07-26	3.54	3.50	0.38	12614	Deceleration	9	19
2024-07-19	3.18	3.48	-8.97	13961	Upward Expansion	-12	16
2024-07-12	3.62	3.45	-0.02	1387	Upward Expansion	35	21
2024-07-05	3.83	3.42	7.01	1274	Upward Expansion	53	32
2024-06-28	3.83	3.38	8.11	0	Deceleration	55	32
2024-06-21	3.83	3.32	8.31	537	Deceleration	52	26
2024-06-14	3.77	3.28	7.04	2220	Deceleration	50	28
2024-06-07	3.81	3.23	4.64	15604	Deceleration	53	33
2024-05-31	3.60	3.19	-0.92	4091	Deceleration	42	29
2024-05-24	4.00	3.15	8.39	11571	Deceleration	53	35
2024-05-17	3.87	3.11	4.69	13460	Deceleration	46	32
2024-05-10	3.66	3.08	-1.70	6	Deceleration	42	30
2024-05-03	3.55	3.05	-0.89	3710	Upward Expansion	56	43
2024-04-26	3.89	3.04	7.09	5056	Upward Expansion	64	76
2024-04-19	3.60	3.01	1.10	6570	Upward Expansion	65	87
2024-04-12	4.02	3.00	10.99	2843	Upward Expansion	66	88
2024-04-05	4.35	2.97	18.14	5835	Upward Expansion	90	96
2024-03-29	4.45	2.94	18.74	16531	Deceleration	87	82
2024-03-22	3.37	2.90	-8.84	7357	Deceleration	25	15
2024-03-15	2.80	2.90	-23.81	11120	Deceleration	-34	36
2024-03-08	2.77	2.92	-24.87	19763	Deceleration	-12	30
2024-03-01	2.59	2.95	-30.12	9190	Deceleration	-26	32
2024-02-23	2.68	2.99	-27.38	3369	Rotation Up	-10	13
2024-02-16	3.04	3.01	-17.62	410	Rotation Up	23	30
2024-02-09	3.11	3.04	-16.29	1591	Rotation Up	28	55
2024-02-02	3.29	3.06	-12.82	0	Rotation Up	31	68
2024-01-26	3.29	3.08	-14.63	0	Rotation Up	32	51
2024-01-19	3.29	3.09	-14.19	0	Downward Expansion	36	44
2024-01-12	3.29	3.11	-16.77	8252	Downward Expansion	17	30
2024-01-05	3.20	3.13	-20.09	20732	Downward Expansion	-5	17
2023-12-29	2.66	3.14	-35.63	9998	Downward Expansion	-44	33
2023-12-22	2.53	3.18	-40.29	7640	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2023-12-15	2.59	3.22	-40.35	120	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2023-12-08	2.52	3.27	-43.57	22450	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2023-12-01	2.23	3.31	-50.22	9965	Downward Expansion	-84	73
2023-11-24	2.44	3.36	-45.54	5512	Downward Expansion	-76	76
2023-11-17	2.54	3.42	-44.25	2688	Downward Expansion	-72	87
2023-11-10	2.41	3.47	-46.01	11229	Downward Expansion	-90	95
2023-11-03	2.54	3.52	-44.43	6938	Downward Expansion	-92	96
2023-10-27	2.85	3.57	-37.08	66	Downward Expansion	-74	89
2023-10-20	2.85	3.61	-38.66	750	Downward Expansion	-79	86
2023-10-13	2.83	3.65	-41.75	10901	Downward Expansion	-84	75

Price vs TrendBelow-4.1%

Trend directionRising+4.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+53.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-17.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-1.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-3.8%

Price momentumPositive+4.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.42×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-32 / ±100

-67.0 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

33 /100

+12.3 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MWB0 Directional State ↗ MWB0 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance41

Rotation Up15

Upward Expansion16

Deceleration61

Rotation Down66

Downward Expansion43

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 1%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 53%Deceleration 21%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 15%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-04	2026-10-02	Developing	-8.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-30	2026-08-28	Extended	+6.1%
Deceleration	2026-01-02	2026-01-23	New	+5.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-07	2025-12-26	Developing	-4.9%
Balance	2025-10-24	2025-10-31	New	+9.5%
Rotation Down	2025-10-10	2025-10-17	New	+3.9%
Deceleration	2025-09-26	2025-10-03	New	-4.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-01	2025-09-19	Developing	-15.5%
Deceleration	2025-07-11	2025-07-25	New	+23.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-07-04	Extended	+78.6%
Rotation Up	2024-11-15	2024-12-20	Developing	+18.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-20	2024-11-08	Developing	+20.4%
Deceleration	2024-08-30	2024-09-13	New	-2.5%
Rotation Down	2024-08-16	2024-08-23	New	+6.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing17

Stage 2 · Advancing54

Stage 3 · Distribution70

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 68/100
Current Relative Strength: -1.16
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +4.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -4.2%
Financial Services regime cohort: 26th percentile23 in cohort

Test MWB0 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.32×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.42×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MWB0 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 10.24falling

Slow Activity EUR 10.55falling

Trend Reference EUR 10.38-4.1% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 6.48+53.6% close margin

Structural low EUR 9.50shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.5%

Annualized volatility +23.0%

From structural high -15.7%

From structural low +33.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	+4.0%-12.6% to +72.3%	+63.6%	+63.6%	+3.0%	+27.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+7.3%-4.8% to +39.3%	+83.3%	+83.3%	+7.1%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+20.3%-2.5% to +59.6%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+21.1%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+38.2%-18.6% to +111.6%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+34.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MWB0 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map