Weekly structural research · NYSE · Consumer Defensive

AGRO Stage Analysis

Adecoagro SA

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 10.24Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -39−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 24/100directional strength

Maturity 27/100lifecycle context

Confidence 67/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +5.0%USD 9.75 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	10.24	11.52	-7.93	3174799	Balance	-39	24
2026-10-02	10.10	11.53	-7.91	2921416	Balance	-26	13
2026-09-25	10.43	11.53	-4.89	2753958	Balance	-11	20
2026-09-18	11.46	11.48	6.06	3504480	Balance	15	28
2026-09-11	11.77	11.40	9.33	3879966	Balance	3	21
2026-09-04	11.77	11.30	9.00	4508514	Downward Expansion	-14	15
2026-08-28	10.74	11.19	-0.05	3560791	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2026-08-21	11.07	11.12	3.67	6754247	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2026-08-14	8.91	11.05	-17.57	4358477	Downward Expansion	-72	59
2026-08-07	9.45	11.02	-12.73	3772015	Deceleration	-40	33
2026-07-31	9.97	10.98	-4.93	3545733	Deceleration	-22	23
2026-07-24	10.58	10.91	1.92	3427088	Rotation Down	-29	28
2026-07-17	10.07	10.82	-3.60	2972618	Rotation Down	-24	49
2026-07-10	10.31	10.73	-3.00	3774530	Rotation Down	-26	56
2026-07-03	9.64	10.62	-8.21	2719317	Rotation Down	-29	57
2026-06-26	9.41	10.57	-8.68	4100604	Deceleration	-33	47
2026-06-19	9.24	10.52	-12.65	5893761	Deceleration	-16	26
2026-06-12	11.65	10.47	10.69	4925766	Deceleration	15	15
2026-06-05	11.42	10.33	9.19	3713857	Deceleration	29	18
2026-05-29	12.13	10.23	13.16	2833873	Deceleration	38	23
2026-05-22	12.81	10.08	21.35	3595241	Deceleration	42	32
2026-05-15	13.11	9.91	25.47	5928732	Deceleration	45	35
2026-05-08	13.13	9.72	26.38	6839256	Upward Expansion	47	37
2026-05-01	13.79	9.52	36.27	6433788	Upward Expansion	68	53
2026-04-24	12.68	9.32	27.14	6450849	Upward Expansion	64	60
2026-04-17	12.37	9.15	24.79	8195655	Upward Expansion	68	67
2026-04-10	14.27	9.00	49.70	7012008	Upward Expansion	72	90
2026-04-03	15.10	8.78	64.32	9294464	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-03-27	13.94	8.55	57.31	11347234	Upward Expansion	94	98
2026-03-20	14.00	8.36	54.95	19617435	Upward Expansion	97	98
2026-03-13	10.73	8.17	17.18	11879153	Upward Expansion	88	89
2026-03-06	10.08	8.11	8.04	4710112	Upward Expansion	82	71
2026-02-27	8.81	8.07	-7.85	1455555	Upward Expansion	57	45
2026-02-20	9.13	8.06	-5.58	1261818	Rotation Up	68	58
2026-02-13	8.58	8.06	-10.73	2280203	Rotation Up	30	48
2026-02-06	8.50	8.08	-13.03	2189614	Rotation Up	30	49
2026-01-30	8.79	8.11	-10.64	2208021	Rotation Up	39	50
2026-01-23	8.86	8.12	-9.93	2494745	Balance	31	34
2026-01-16	8.12	8.11	-18.02	3474078	Balance	-7	12
2026-01-09	8.28	8.15	-17.03	4535566	Balance	-3	4
2026-01-02	7.70	8.17	-22.12	2947030	Downward Expansion	-44	27
2025-12-26	7.93	8.21	-21.08	4109091	Downward Expansion	-43	25
2025-12-19	7.29	8.24	-26.74	7151997	Downward Expansion	-57	32
2025-12-12	7.07	8.31	-29.31	12964145	Downward Expansion	-65	32
2025-12-05	8.17	8.37	-19.43	4040110	Downward Expansion	-26	13
2025-11-28	8.07	8.38	-20.72	2142400	Downward Expansion	-36	19
2025-11-21	7.58	8.40	-23.31	2101846	Downward Expansion	-46	26
2025-11-14	7.61	8.46	-25.10	2340044	Downward Expansion	-45	26
2025-11-07	8.14	8.57	-20.46	1729326	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2025-10-31	7.82	8.65	-25.42	2616143	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2025-10-24	7.58	8.74	-27.88	2035295	Downward Expansion	-65	59
2025-10-17	7.41	8.85	-28.80	1519311	Downward Expansion	-72	73
2025-10-10	7.33	8.95	-29.05	2080237	Downward Expansion	-80	79
2025-10-03	7.56	9.05	-29.15	2408052	Downward Expansion	-75	80
2025-09-26	7.81	9.14	-26.60	2248661	Downward Expansion	-69	80
2025-09-19	7.67	9.22	-28.78	2190810	Downward Expansion	-79	86
2025-09-12	7.81	9.30	-27.17	2462231	Downward Expansion	-81	84
2025-09-05	8.04	9.35	-24.60	1560517	Downward Expansion	-80	77
2025-08-29	8.21	9.39	-23.38	3341456	Downward Expansion	-76	68
2025-08-22	8.52	9.43	-21.04	4854776	Downward Expansion	-68	61
2025-08-15	8.84	9.44	-18.29	1584633	Downward Expansion	-55	53
2025-08-08	8.81	9.46	-18.30	1728539	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2025-08-01	8.55	9.47	-19.17	1901613	Balance	-69	37
2025-07-25	9.18	9.49	-15.55	1991569	Balance	-34	19
2025-07-18	9.22	9.49	-14.10	2053635	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2025-07-11	9.17	9.48	-14.16	3468457	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2025-07-04	9.09	9.51	-15.28	1259480	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2025-06-27	8.79	9.54	-16.90	1691813	Downward Expansion	-59	37
2025-06-20	9.11	9.59	-11.15	1612777	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2025-06-13	9.02	9.64	-12.30	1931393	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2025-06-06	8.84	9.70	-14.37	3323849	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2025-05-30	8.94	9.76	-12.12	2693780	Downward Expansion	-60	63
2025-05-23	9.22	9.82	-8.01	2804191	Rotation Down	-51	65
2025-05-16	8.85	9.88	-14.11	3268780	Rotation Down	-53	49
2025-05-09	8.69	9.94	-11.61	4381304	Balance	-58	46
2025-05-02	8.56	9.99	-13.69	10081177	Balance	-29	25
2025-04-25	9.44	10.06	-2.59	7765632	Rotation Up	-3	9
2025-04-18	10.84	10.10	16.59	3510421	Rotation Up	41	41
2025-04-11	10.69	10.09	13.30	7567324	Rotation Up	39	39
2025-04-04	10.53	10.10	17.98	6998389	Rotation Up	27	46
2025-03-28	10.81	10.10	10.21	6427828	Rotation Up	41	58
2025-03-21	10.31	10.09	3.49	3262618	Rotation Up	26	45
2025-03-14	10.28	10.08	3.64	4441267	Balance	25	36
2025-03-07	10.33	10.09	1.74	3430002	Balance	10	27
2025-02-28	10.16	10.07	-2.99	4172721	Downward Expansion	-9	18
2025-02-21	10.27	10.02	-3.07	5060944	Downward Expansion	-16	16
2025-02-14	9.32	9.97	-13.57	1919584	Downward Expansion	-45	37
2025-02-07	9.18	9.95	-13.85	1854278	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2025-01-31	9.26	9.95	-13.57	1786144	Rotation Down	-59	46
2025-01-24	9.00	9.95	-17.23	1959514	Rotation Down	-41	53
2025-01-17	9.19	9.95	-14.45	2045853	Rotation Down	-36	62
2025-01-10	9.35	9.93	-10.78	2152068	Rotation Down	-38	67
2025-01-03	9.07	9.90	-15.61	1840363	Rotation Down	-37	67
2024-12-27	9.01	9.88	-17.12	1434835	Rotation Down	-42	65
2024-12-20	9.15	9.89	-15.85	3041559	Upward Expansion	-38	42
2024-12-13	9.93	9.89	-11.03	3067304	Upward Expansion	1	15
2024-12-06	9.98	9.88	-11.62	3018897	Upward Expansion	9	11
2024-11-29	10.37	9.89	-7.82	2066548	Upward Expansion	39	23
2024-11-22	10.58	9.89	-5.40	2429320	Upward Expansion	53	32
2024-11-15	10.82	9.87	-2.22	4693067	Upward Expansion	58	45
2024-11-08	10.77	9.85	-5.02	2213259	Upward Expansion	56	39
2024-11-01	10.60	9.84	-2.45	3361561	Upward Expansion	51	33
2024-10-25	11.03	9.82	-0.37	3480395	Upward Expansion	64	38
2024-10-18	10.67	9.79	-5.08	4242174	Upward Expansion	48	31
2024-10-11	10.27	9.77	-8.32	2312910	Upward Expansion	46	33
2024-10-04	10.48	9.73	-5.88	2732155	Upward Expansion	60	45
2024-09-27	10.66	9.69	-4.49	4081332	Upward Expansion	64	61
2024-09-20	10.69	9.65	-4.22	5603800	Upward Expansion	67	70
2024-09-13	10.84	9.60	-2.03	4266891	Rotation Up	75	78
2024-09-06	10.70	9.54	0.09	3620149	Rotation Up	48	69
2024-08-30	10.32	9.49	-7.88	3613423	Rotation Up	30	44
2024-08-23	9.99	9.47	-11.05	3506351	Rotation Up	21	31
2024-08-16	10.68	9.45	-4.08	13043596	Rotation Up	35	29
2024-08-09	9.66	9.40	-10.01	5297922	Downward Expansion	-23	16
2024-08-02	8.61	9.41	-19.93	12232182	Downward Expansion	-65	42
2024-07-26	8.83	9.45	-20.12	2493707	Downward Expansion	-47	30
2024-07-19	8.79	9.50	-21.53	3514156	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2024-07-12	9.08	9.55	-20.96	3934141	Downward Expansion	-45	31
2024-07-05	9.19	9.60	-19.46	2731952	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2024-06-28	9.12	9.61	-18.86	3280139	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2024-06-21	8.57	9.65	-24.02	2985216	Downward Expansion	-72	83
2024-06-14	8.48	9.72	-24.63	3857288	Downward Expansion	-77	81
2024-06-07	8.44	9.76	-24.08	4245902	Balance	-79	64
2024-05-31	9.22	9.79	-16.40	2418009	Balance	-22	25
2024-05-24	9.33	9.82	-15.96	3157289	Balance	-16	14
2024-05-17	9.67	9.84	-13.02	3728132	Rotation Up	6	10
2024-05-10	10.23	9.85	-6.59	3251696	Rotation Up	59	40
2024-05-03	10.26	9.83	-4.58	4192552	Rotation Up	26	37
2024-04-26	10.20	9.81	-4.41	1584600	Rotation Up	25	46
2024-04-19	10.17	9.83	-1.99	1642071	Rotation Up	22	41
2024-04-12	10.25	9.83	-4.06	3215161	Rotation Up	26	33
2024-04-05	10.18	9.85	-6.03	2376904	Downward Expansion	25	28
2024-03-29	10.17	9.86	-6.76	2135304	Downward Expansion	-6	13
2024-03-22	9.83	9.88	-9.44	2009811	Downward Expansion	-29	17
2024-03-15	9.26	9.89	-12.71	2499143	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2024-03-08	9.33	9.90	-11.97	1707236	Downward Expansion	-56	49
2024-03-01	9.31	9.88	-12.43	2214470	Downward Expansion	-57	52
2024-02-23	9.19	9.90	-12.70	1447990	Downward Expansion	-59	52
2024-02-16	9.16	9.92	-11.57	2532471	Downward Expansion	-61	55
2024-02-09	9.08	9.94	-12.64	2886182	Balance	-66	58
2024-02-02	9.75	9.92	-4.77	2808949	Balance	-23	33
2024-01-26	9.40	9.89	-6.80	2992771	Balance	-28	32
2024-01-19	9.35	9.86	-6.25	3057408	Balance	-28	19
2024-01-12	9.83	9.84	-0.21	2568645	Deceleration	21	9
2024-01-05	9.96	9.81	3.14	1573009	Deceleration	41	22
2023-12-29	10.25	9.77	4.71	1080526	Deceleration	47	23
2023-12-22	10.24	9.70	5.17	2435170	Deceleration	45	24
2023-12-15	10.52	9.64	9.19	4743989	Deceleration	43	26
2023-12-08	9.64	9.55	2.96	7561209	Deceleration	21	14
2023-12-01	10.34	9.50	11.11	3908474	Deceleration	41	23
2023-11-24	10.50	9.41	14.29	4244094	Deceleration	46	21
2023-11-17	9.67	9.31	6.75	3810585	Deceleration	9	11
2023-11-10	9.49	9.22	7.56	1740523	Deceleration	8	10
2023-11-03	10.06	9.17	16.02	1557543	Deceleration	32	19
2023-10-27	9.82	9.07	20.11	2310683	Deceleration	31	24
2023-10-20	9.97	8.99	19.51	2566011	Deceleration	38	22

Price vs TrendBelow-11.1%

Trend directionRising+4.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+5.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-1.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-7.9%

Relative strength directionWeakening-4.9%

Price momentumNegative-28.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.65×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-39 / ±100

-41.6 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

24 /100

+2.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AGRO Directional State ↗ AGRO Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance43

Rotation Up18

Upward Expansion17

Deceleration56

Rotation Down51

Downward Expansion62

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 14%Upward Expansion 16%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 35%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-11	2026-10-09	Developing	-13.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-09-04	New	+32.1%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-08-07	New	-5.2%
Rotation Down	2026-07-03	2026-07-24	New	+9.8%
Deceleration	2026-05-15	2026-06-26	Developing	-28.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-05-08	Developing	+49.0%
Rotation Up	2026-01-30	2026-02-20	New	+3.8%
Balance	2026-01-09	2026-01-23	New	+6.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-08	2026-01-02	Established	-12.6%
Balance	2025-07-25	2025-08-01	New	-6.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-07-18	Developing	+3.1%
Rotation Down	2025-05-16	2025-05-23	New	+4.2%
Balance	2025-05-02	2025-05-09	New	+1.5%
Rotation Up	2025-03-21	2025-04-25	Developing	-8.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing41

Stage 2 · Advancing27

Stage 3 · Distribution35

Stage 4 · Declining73

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 85/100
Current Relative Strength: -7.93
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -28.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -43.1%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 75th percentile24 in cohort

Test AGRO trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.82×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.65×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AGRO Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 10.51falling

Slow Activity USD 10.84falling

Trend Reference USD 11.52-11.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 9.75+5.0% close margin

Structural low USD 8.88shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +10.9%

Annualized volatility +58.8%

From structural high -35.0%

From structural low +49.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	-1.2%-25.2% to +32.3%	+46.7%	+46.7%	-3.3%	+26.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+7.2%-21.1% to +72.2%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+0.6%	+11.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+16.0%-22.2% to +33.6%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+2.4%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-2.0%-15.6% to +31.5%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-10.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AGRO Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map