Weekly structural research · AMS · Industrials

EXO Stage Analysis

Exor N.V.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 69.80Tenure NewBenchmark ^AEX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 23−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 22/100directional strength

Maturity 61/100lifecycle context

Confidence 75/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -16.7%EUR 83.78 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	69.80	68.33	-9.79	1277281	Deceleration	23	22
2026-10-02	68.10	68.26	-11.35	1242193	Deceleration	16	20
2026-09-25	70.55	68.33	-8.52	1188735	Upward Expansion	42	28
2026-09-18	68.50	68.44	-10.39	1438735	Upward Expansion	51	42
2026-09-11	71.25	68.58	-7.78	726270	Upward Expansion	66	80
2026-09-04	73.85	68.58	-6.37	139522	Upward Expansion	88	93
2026-08-28	72.90	68.39	-8.15	162293	Rotation Up	85	87
2026-08-21	71.20	68.25	-10.49	149413	Rotation Up	48	66
2026-08-14	70.35	68.21	-13.20	107488	Rotation Up	40	53
2026-08-07	70.55	68.24	-13.25	90451	Rotation Up	43	49
2026-07-31	69.30	68.38	-14.59	272068	Balance	22	32
2026-07-24	68.10	68.48	-16.02	83133	Balance	-6	19
2026-07-17	68.80	68.61	-16.11	128020	Balance	-4	14
2026-07-10	68.55	68.72	-16.56	148544	Balance	-10	9
2026-07-03	69.25	68.82	-16.33	95711	Downward Expansion	-18	9
2026-06-26	66.95	68.94	-18.03	218236	Downward Expansion	-46	26
2026-06-19	65.55	69.11	-21.62	702993	Downward Expansion	-53	28
2026-06-12	66.90	69.26	-20.80	151670	Downward Expansion	-45	24
2026-06-05	65.70	69.49	-19.72	150666	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2026-05-29	66.95	69.74	-18.25	1349546	Downward Expansion	-48	27
2026-05-22	67.11	70.00	-19.37	964935	Downward Expansion	-48	30
2026-05-15	65.03	70.31	-19.72	843511	Downward Expansion	-59	34
2026-05-08	67.95	70.64	-17.26	1457102	Downward Expansion	-33	16
2026-05-01	66.32	70.93	-19.49	863425	Downward Expansion	-40	20
2026-04-24	67.76	71.60	-18.78	1041640	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2026-04-17	71.38	72.06	-15.23	1496371	Downward Expansion	-32	21
2026-04-10	68.35	72.45	-18.15	1182656	Downward Expansion	-59	59
2026-04-03	66.86	72.95	-17.57	1110328	Downward Expansion	-60	69
2026-03-27	63.29	73.53	-21.09	1766632	Downward Expansion	-75	76
2026-03-20	62.89	74.25	-22.24	1483061	Downward Expansion	-80	59
2026-03-13	67.71	75.04	-20.21	1163667	Downward Expansion	-65	32
2026-03-06	69.99	75.69	-16.30	1606533	Downward Expansion	-42	22
2026-02-27	73.81	76.24	-16.29	1465804	Downward Expansion	-32	19
2026-02-20	72.72	76.53	-17.29	1405932	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2026-02-13	71.48	77.11	-17.26	1893457	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2026-02-06	68.05	77.69	-21.84	1541366	Downward Expansion	-74	63
2026-01-30	68.60	78.39	-22.22	980222	Downward Expansion	-77	58
2026-01-23	69.99	78.97	-21.03	1146156	Downward Expansion	-71	48
2026-01-16	71.18	79.47	-20.98	994948	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2026-01-09	74.75	79.81	-15.68	1172498	Downward Expansion	-46	38
2026-01-02	72.42	80.00	-17.00	649845	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2025-12-26	71.88	80.39	-15.74	244426	Downward Expansion	-62	49
2025-12-19	72.37	80.80	-15.86	1434601	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2025-12-12	71.28	81.18	-17.09	911746	Downward Expansion	-69	59
2025-12-05	72.97	81.69	-16.32	878519	Downward Expansion	-65	58
2025-11-28	72.07	82.07	-17.47	2023324	Downward Expansion	-68	73
2025-11-21	69.94	82.43	-18.96	1091942	Downward Expansion	-84	87
2025-11-14	74.06	82.81	-16.99	807431	Downward Expansion	-69	81
2025-11-07	73.17	82.92	-18.39	980126	Downward Expansion	-75	87
2025-10-31	74.65	82.98	-18.99	897686	Rotation Down	-75	84
2025-10-24	76.39	83.01	-18.28	925390	Rotation Down	-42	63
2025-10-17	74.90	83.36	-18.45	1493727	Rotation Down	-53	62
2025-10-10	76.59	83.83	-15.75	2409975	Balance	-41	46
2025-10-03	86.37	84.23	-7.49	862076	Balance	-4	14
2025-09-26	81.80	84.39	-10.48	767981	Balance	-26	34
2025-09-19	82.94	84.75	-8.78	1360095	Balance	-18	20
2025-09-12	83.34	85.08	-6.55	658155	Balance	-15	14
2025-09-05	84.19	85.47	-4.83	641290	Balance	-7	6
2025-08-29	85.03	85.69	-3.95	1090566	Balance	4	6
2025-08-22	86.62	85.87	-4.15	795928	Balance	7	9
2025-08-15	87.11	85.95	-1.98	737715	Balance	15	11
2025-08-08	86.57	86.06	-2.26	696735	Rotation Up	13	15
2025-08-01	82.45	86.12	-6.30	1075151	Rotation Up	5	29
2025-07-25	90.04	86.25	-0.16	514138	Rotation Up	34	60
2025-07-18	88.85	86.16	-2.21	513067	Balance	28	46
2025-07-11	89.05	86.11	-3.15	747790	Balance	11	23
2025-07-04	85.97	86.22	-5.27	834617	Balance	-12	10
2025-06-27	85.28	86.50	-7.38	664020	Downward Expansion	-31	19
2025-06-20	81.31	86.74	-10.76	1106685	Downward Expansion	-50	30
2025-06-13	80.36	87.16	-13.38	717719	Downward Expansion	-56	28
2025-06-06	84.14	87.56	-10.32	630947	Downward Expansion	-28	18
2025-05-30	84.19	87.87	-9.86	1241083	Downward Expansion	-28	21
2025-05-23	83.75	88.28	-10.15	664278	Downward Expansion	-31	22
2025-05-16	86.66	88.77	-8.75	804936	Downward Expansion	-34	22
2025-05-09	84.29	89.13	-9.10	981451	Downward Expansion	-46	33
2025-05-02	82.91	89.50	-10.07	1855488	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2025-04-25	81.38	89.91	-9.60	819309	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2025-04-18	77.28	90.49	-12.39	749171	Downward Expansion	-73	85
2025-04-11	75.06	91.12	-11.92	1290346	Downward Expansion	-85	86
2025-04-04	75.36	91.86	-14.18	1292927	Downward Expansion	-89	82
2025-03-28	86.96	92.55	-8.57	1288854	Balance	-61	47
2025-03-21	89.08	92.96	-7.42	1158864	Balance	-40	25
2025-03-14	88.44	93.22	-7.47	1050461	Balance	-40	18
2025-03-07	91.45	93.44	-5.25	1141755	Balance	-9	15
2025-02-28	92.38	93.38	-5.64	1575923	Balance	-9	17
2025-02-21	92.88	93.28	-6.99	572312	Balance	-17	20
2025-02-14	94.95	93.24	-6.11	743650	Downward Expansion	-9	14
2025-02-07	90.90	93.23	-8.12	940062	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2025-01-31	90.56	93.45	-8.44	671175	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2025-01-24	88.88	93.64	-8.29	545152	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2025-01-17	90.56	93.89	-7.97	712637	Downward Expansion	-61	61
2025-01-10	88.19	94.07	-8.18	615919	Downward Expansion	-64	76
2025-01-03	86.36	94.31	-9.73	360209	Downward Expansion	-77	81
2024-12-27	87.45	94.72	-8.34	333173	Downward Expansion	-76	71
2024-12-20	87.20	95.19	-8.38	1125040	Downward Expansion	-80	64
2024-12-13	92.53	95.73	-4.98	576741	Downward Expansion	-59	43
2024-12-06	94.16	96.04	-3.32	606335	Downward Expansion	-54	51
2024-11-29	92.43	96.26	-4.20	1414747	Balance	-60	56
2024-11-22	93.96	96.57	-2.57	635757	Balance	-49	41
2024-11-15	92.38	96.75	-2.37	711630	Balance	-60	38
2024-11-08	93.42	96.97	-2.68	811159	Balance	-44	18
2024-11-01	96.43	97.14	-0.67	730432	Balance	-12	9
2024-10-25	98.50	97.23	-0.33	587576	Balance	-3	5
2024-10-18	97.42	97.32	-1.96	712394	Balance	-18	10
2024-10-11	95.59	97.46	-5.22	647363	Balance	-26	12
2024-10-04	95.15	97.60	-5.37	1175749	Balance	-16	10
2024-09-27	98.70	97.75	-2.59	796404	Balance	2	11
2024-09-20	96.18	97.76	-3.06	856057	Balance	-17	19
2024-09-13	97.27	97.87	-2.29	616028	Balance	-17	24
2024-09-06	96.14	97.85	-1.30	651467	Downward Expansion	-24	25
2024-08-30	99.29	97.75	-2.41	806202	Downward Expansion	-17	15
2024-08-23	96.93	97.48	-3.67	494819	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2024-08-16	94.80	97.08	-5.49	587640	Rotation Down	-62	67
2024-08-09	89.62	96.84	-8.43	672928	Rotation Down	-48	70
2024-08-02	89.47	96.80	-8.17	628436	Rotation Down	-55	65
2024-07-26	91.84	96.76	-8.67	527132	Rotation Down	-49	48
2024-07-19	94.61	96.66	-6.06	485039	Balance	-30	34
2024-07-12	97.47	96.48	-7.08	492951	Balance	0	24
2024-07-05	96.09	96.30	-7.31	425821	Balance	-21	30
2024-06-28	96.43	96.12	-6.00	747744	Balance	1	22
2024-06-21	95.99	95.86	-6.56	857967	Balance	-0	16
2024-06-14	95.59	95.51	-6.27	685100	Upward Expansion	16	11
2024-06-07	98.50	95.16	-3.92	786409	Upward Expansion	54	36
2024-05-31	101.56	94.62	1.32	1271071	Upward Expansion	59	47
2024-05-24	103.28	94.02	1.89	623546	Upward Expansion	71	59
2024-05-17	102.00	93.23	1.09	659232	Upward Expansion	65	49
2024-05-10	100.62	92.54	0.18	869243	Deceleration	58	43
2024-05-03	101.80	91.95	4.18	954871	Deceleration	59	42
2024-04-26	99.34	91.30	2.52	673300	Upward Expansion	45	34
2024-04-19	98.95	90.74	5.11	1007351	Upward Expansion	49	41
2024-04-12	98.75	90.18	2.45	661024	Upward Expansion	62	54
2024-04-05	98.85	89.72	3.10	553360	Upward Expansion	66	61
2024-03-29	101.26	89.10	5.75	439991	Upward Expansion	72	68
2024-03-22	101.80	88.38	7.30	484026	Upward Expansion	80	88
2024-03-15	99.79	87.62	8.57	905093	Upward Expansion	73	89
2024-03-08	99.64	86.90	7.48	476071	Upward Expansion	77	91
2024-03-01	98.95	86.25	7.97	797371	Upward Expansion	78	91
2024-02-23	99.34	85.65	8.53	553872	Upward Expansion	87	92
2024-02-16	96.65	85.13	5.50	672230	Upward Expansion	84	77
2024-02-09	93.35	—	—	626190	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-02	91.09	—	—	806294	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-26	85.04	—	—	611787	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-19	87.38	—	—	446561	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-12	88.69	—	—	569830	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-05	88.00	—	—	411780	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-29	88.93	—	—	333544	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-22	89.28	—	—	778729	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-15	92.05	—	—	1149429	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-08	90.82	—	—	619756	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-01	88.36	—	—	1985668	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-24	85.74	—	—	577853	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-17	84.86	—	—	1167028	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-10	82.33	—	—	539267	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-03	83.54	—	—	816832	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-27	79.65	—	—	648860	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-20	81.44	—	—	951734	Not yet classified	—	—

Price vs TrendAbove+2.1%

Trend directionFalling-0.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-16.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+2.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-9.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+6.8%

Price momentumPositive+2.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.95×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

23 / ±100

-43.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

22 /100

-57.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

EXO Directional State ↗ EXO Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance50

Rotation Up21

Upward Expansion54

Deceleration91

Rotation Down41

Downward Expansion22

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 139 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 28%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 14%Deceleration 3%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 45%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	+2.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-09-04	2026-09-25	New	-4.5%
Rotation Up	2026-08-07	2026-08-28	New	+3.3%
Balance	2026-07-10	2026-07-31	New	+1.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-07	2026-07-03	Extended	-5.4%
Rotation Down	2025-10-17	2025-10-31	New	-0.3%
Balance	2025-08-15	2025-10-10	Developing	-12.1%
Rotation Up	2025-07-25	2025-08-08	New	-3.9%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-07-18	New	+3.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-06-27	Established	+13.2%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-03-28	Developing	-6.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-06	2025-02-14	Developing	+0.8%
Balance	2024-09-13	2024-11-29	Developing	-5.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-23	2024-09-06	New	-0.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing78

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution49

Stage 4 · Declining55

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AEX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 19/100
Current Relative Strength: -9.79
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +2.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -9.8%
Industrials regime cohort: 25th percentile8 in cohort

Test EXO trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.60×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.95×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore EXO Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 69.42falling

Slow Activity EUR 69.26rising

Trend Reference EUR 68.33+2.1% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 83.78-16.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 62.74shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +3.5%

Annualized volatility +19.3%

From structural high -10.0%

From structural low +17.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AEX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	1	-0.2%-0.2% to -0.2%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-2.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	1	-12.1%-12.1% to -12.1%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-11.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	1	-5.3%-5.3% to -5.3%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-4.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	-18.6%-18.6% to -18.6%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-19.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

EXO Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map