Weekly structural research ยท TAI ยท Industrials

6923 Stage Analysis

CHUNGTAI RESOURCE Technology CORP.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close TWD 75.90Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^TWII
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Balance ยท Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: stable.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction -35โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 18/100directional strength
Maturity 15/100lifecycle context
Confidence 69/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -12.1%TWD 86.35 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-2575.9077.10-37.28281076Balance-3518
2026-09-1876.9077.53-36.65466050Balance-2814
2026-09-1176.3077.95-36.71174020Balance-3417
2026-09-0475.3078.39-39.05195030Balance-4221
2026-08-2876.9078.93-38.5933000Balance-3117
2026-08-2177.1079.56-38.0525001Balance-2313
2026-08-1476.1080.19-40.4749000Downward Expansion-3515
2026-08-0775.6080.89-39.62104000Downward Expansion-3617
2026-07-3177.1081.69-37.8099000Downward Expansion-3015
2026-07-2478.8082.26-38.0059000Downward Expansion-3116
2026-07-1776.8082.72-38.89139000Downward Expansion-4230
2026-07-1075.4083.48-44.210Downward Expansion-5434
2026-07-0377.0084.28-45.41504141Downward Expansion-5435
2026-06-2672.8085.00-46.39782319Downward Expansion-7046
2026-06-1977.7085.65-45.68741002Downward Expansion-5943
2026-06-1275.4386.35-45.02534195Downward Expansion-6249
2026-06-0575.7187.07-46.39788250Downward Expansion-6150
2026-05-2974.6687.74-47.24877199Downward Expansion-6749
2026-05-2276.2088.70-43.54867227Downward Expansion-5238
2026-05-1576.1089.64-42.571185203Downward Expansion-5234
2026-05-0879.8591.11-40.911334000Downward Expansion-4228
2026-05-0182.2691.96-35.47847000Downward Expansion-4942
2026-04-2480.5292.82-37.291861201Downward Expansion-6460
2026-04-1779.6693.84-34.891350110Downward Expansion-6783
2026-04-1072.7394.22-38.64472159Downward Expansion-7691
2026-04-0371.8794.99-34.56695766Downward Expansion-8694
2026-03-2774.2795.96-33.92765525Downward Expansion-8894
2026-03-2078.4196.82-31.531270026Downward Expansion-8483
2026-03-1382.5597.21-27.991354290Downward Expansion-7977
2026-03-0687.0797.49-24.771941307Downward Expansion-6766
2026-02-2788.8097.69-27.41820192Downward Expansion-6565
2026-02-1389.6697.62-23.001035000Downward Expansion-6359
2026-02-0689.4797.40-18.991315020Downward Expansion-3543
2026-01-3091.4097.14-18.101653158Balance-3126
2026-01-2395.8296.74-13.921987770Balance-189
2026-01-1695.9296.00-12.337163833Deceleration106
2026-01-0997.1795.24-7.971923216Deceleration1210
2026-01-0299.5794.26-2.681697211Deceleration139
2025-12-2694.1993.22-5.28849000Deceleration57
2025-12-1992.5592.38-4.023666077Deceleration45
2025-12-1299.5791.591.391210143Deceleration159
2025-12-0599.5790.572.197476291Deceleration1510
2025-11-2898.6189.612.501305090Deceleration1413
2025-11-2192.2688.600.291701202Deceleration1617
2025-11-1498.6187.753.381588067Deceleration2920
2025-11-0797.1786.671.002971051Upward Expansion3421
2025-10-3195.6385.59-2.783020243Upward Expansion4330
2025-10-24103.4284.797.724035657Upward Expansion5741
2025-10-17104.3883.789.8510586305Upward Expansion6048
2025-10-10120.2682.7226.758960482Upward Expansion7971
2025-10-03105.3581.1113.735353501Upward Expansion6250
2025-09-26108.2379.9522.455349222Upward Expansion7052
2025-09-19111.1278.7225.7014972118Upward Expansion7956
2025-09-1291.0177.453.371942283Upward Expansion6149
2025-09-0595.8276.8812.674799805Upward Expansion6454
2025-08-29101.0276.0919.825527349Upward Expansion7863
2025-08-22100.0575.0720.894394697Upward Expansion8467
2025-08-1590.1574.076.351629040Upward Expansion6868
2025-08-0890.7273.508.083631191Upward Expansion7481
2025-08-0193.2272.9413.5515285748Upward Expansion8789
2025-07-2586.5972.305.651183646Upward Expansion8590
2025-07-1883.2071.871.171403251Rotation Up7985
2025-07-1181.5571.721.66952320Rotation Up5269
2025-07-0479.4371.70-0.365071286Balance3538
2025-06-2773.6471.70-8.171051155Balance-19
2025-06-2073.0071.88-7.18375151Downward Expansion-148
2025-06-1368.0372.15-13.9299000Downward Expansion-5027
2025-06-0668.1272.61-12.68128013Downward Expansion-3922
2025-05-3069.1473.20-10.6260000Downward Expansion-3417
2025-05-2368.9573.65-12.5584039Downward Expansion-3720
2025-05-1668.8674.02-13.99189000Downward Expansion-4227
2025-05-0970.7974.44-8.32245213Downward Expansion-5741
2025-05-0268.3174.82-11.59157150Downward Expansion-6265
2025-04-2566.8475.30-10.18367154Downward Expansion-6564
2025-04-1866.0176.23-9.78338065Downward Expansion-7254
2025-04-1165.0077.18-12.31812560Downward Expansion-7950
2025-04-0471.4378.16-12.19137030Downward Expansion-4933
2025-03-2873.2778.95-11.68330078Downward Expansion-4536
2025-03-2172.4579.72-15.54129024Downward Expansion-5644
2025-03-1471.9980.47-15.80160029Downward Expansion-5745
2025-03-0770.6181.13-20.22139040Downward Expansion-6850
2025-02-2871.3481.84-21.76188050Downward Expansion-5849
2025-02-2173.0982.56-22.84269001Downward Expansion-6154
2025-02-1473.6483.32-21.08459148Downward Expansion-6461
2025-02-0772.3584.06-24.28488216Downward Expansion-6765
2025-01-2470.2484.87-27.35350000Downward Expansion-7778
2025-01-1770.1585.87-27.03250095Downward Expansion-8289
2025-01-1073.0986.69-24.33317000Downward Expansion-7387
2025-01-0373.7387.27-24.10177000Downward Expansion-7588
2024-12-2774.2887.85-25.55254000Downward Expansion-7886
2024-12-2073.5588.38-24.54482239Downward Expansion-8270
2024-12-1378.6188.94-21.90342237Downward Expansion-6962
2024-12-0681.0989.46-20.76572679Downward Expansion-6257
2024-11-2979.4389.88-19.91250000Downward Expansion-6863
2024-11-2278.8890.41-23.37248305Downward Expansion-7252
2024-11-1581.1890.94-21.31641150Downward Expansion-6546
2024-11-0881.8291.37-24.17570310Downward Expansion-6651
2024-11-0185.8791.83-18.491936721Downward Expansion-6264
2024-10-2582.7492.07-24.05875591Downward Expansion-6582
2024-10-1879.9892.31-27.58971579Downward Expansion-7687
2024-10-1181.3692.70-25.00753060Downward Expansion-7681
2024-10-0482.2893.13-22.701266130Downward Expansion-7673
2024-09-2782.65โ€”โ€”3797812Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2094.69โ€”โ€”232283Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-1394.69โ€”โ€”442734Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-0694.23โ€”โ€”307191Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-3095.15โ€”โ€”435857Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-2396.53โ€”โ€”310192Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-1694.69โ€”โ€”152191Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0991.94โ€”โ€”179316Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0291.94โ€”โ€”101945Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-2692.86โ€”โ€”235389Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1996.07โ€”โ€”252171Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1295.72โ€”โ€”178988Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-0596.61โ€”โ€”233399Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-28100.19โ€”โ€”426321Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2194.82โ€”โ€”269043Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-1490.35โ€”โ€”275330Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-0791.24โ€”โ€”105457Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-3190.35โ€”โ€”110321Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-2490.35โ€”โ€”261403Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-1793.93โ€”โ€”104543Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-1093.93โ€”โ€”176263Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-0395.27โ€”โ€”139824Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-2694.82โ€”โ€”166383Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-1993.93โ€”โ€”165500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-1295.72โ€”โ€”399310Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-0593.03โ€”โ€”62246Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-2989.90โ€”โ€”162833Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-2291.69โ€”โ€”72642Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-1594.38โ€”โ€”144707Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-0893.93โ€”โ€”371585Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-0193.93โ€”โ€”201381Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-2394.38โ€”โ€”178435Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-1694.38โ€”โ€”148436Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-0994.82โ€”โ€”24157Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-0293.48โ€”โ€”65562Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-2693.93โ€”โ€”44849Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-1994.38โ€”โ€”56700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-1295.27โ€”โ€”160963Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-0598.40โ€”โ€”433868Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-2997.06โ€”โ€”43876Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-2296.16โ€”โ€”94110Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-1597.51โ€”โ€”327386Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-0899.30โ€”โ€”143640Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-0197.95โ€”โ€”205813Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-2497.06โ€”โ€”99563Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-17101.98โ€”โ€”870052Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-1095.27โ€”โ€”198981Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-0397.95โ€”โ€”411900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-2787.40โ€”โ€”792026Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-2085.61โ€”โ€”469436Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-1391.24โ€”โ€”210641Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-0693.48โ€”โ€”211960Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-09-2996.61โ€”โ€”97703Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-09-2298.40โ€”โ€”36904Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-1.6%
Trend directionFalling-6.8%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-12.1%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+5.3%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-37.3%
Relative strength directionImproving+9.1%
Price momentumPositive+2.2%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.99ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-35 / ยฑ100

-3.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

18 /100

+1.2 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance53
Rotation Up20
Upward Expansion9
Deceleration54
Rotation Down40
Downward Expansion63

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-09-25 ยท 102 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 16%Deceleration 10%Downward Expansion 63%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Balance2026-08-212026-09-25Developing-1.6%
Downward Expansion2026-02-062026-08-14Extended-14.9%
Balance2026-01-232026-01-30New-4.6%
Deceleration2025-11-142026-01-16Developing-2.7%
Upward Expansion2025-07-252025-11-07Established+12.2%
Rotation Up2025-07-112025-07-18New+2.0%
Balance2025-06-272025-07-04New+7.9%
Downward Expansion2024-10-042025-06-20Extended-11.3%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing67
Stage 2 ยท Advancing14
Stage 3 ยท Distribution23
Stage 4 ยท Declining86

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4C ยท Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
74/100
Current Relative Strength
-37.28
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+2.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-42.8%
Industrials regime cohort
81th percentile81 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.71ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.99ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationStable

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity TWD 76.23falling
Slow Activity TWD 76.54falling
Trend Reference TWD 77.10-1.6% close margin
Current Fair Value TWD 86.35-12.1% close margin
Structural low TWD 69.94shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +3.3%
Annualized volatility +22.6%
From structural high -40.2%
From structural low +8.5%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^TWII Regime survived Read
Near term3-0.3%-7.3% to +17.6%+33.3%+33.3%-4.6%+33.3%Too little matched history
Intermediate2+16.4%-14.2% to +47.0%+50.0%+50.0%-1.1%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended2+4.2%-19.5% to +27.9%+50.0%+50.0%-26.5%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle1+4.6%+4.6% to +4.6%+100.0%+100.0%-102.6%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context