Weekly structural research · JPX · Industrials

2384 Stage Analysis

SBS Holdings, Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 5,390.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 79−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 60/100directional strength

Maturity 35/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +73.0%JPY 3,115.80 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	5,390.00	4,529.00	12.68	297000	Upward Expansion	79	60
2026-09-18	5,260.00	4,491.67	12.28	371200	Upward Expansion	77	63
2026-09-11	4,810.00	4,454.83	4.35	254700	Upward Expansion	64	74
2026-09-04	5,030.00	4,429.67	7.29	439700	Upward Expansion	67	83
2026-08-28	5,170.00	4,392.50	7.79	266300	Upward Expansion	84	89
2026-08-21	5,190.00	4,348.67	8.75	104400	Upward Expansion	90	84
2026-08-14	4,865.00	4,306.33	-2.08	50700	Deceleration	73	62
2026-08-07	4,600.00	4,275.17	-3.17	214100	Deceleration	49	31
2026-07-31	4,460.00	4,251.67	-4.54	84000	Deceleration	35	17
2026-07-24	4,415.00	4,229.00	-6.11	93300	Deceleration	18	9
2026-07-17	4,560.00	4,207.00	-2.43	223800	Deceleration	35	21
2026-07-10	4,155.00	4,178.86	-16.88	78100	Deceleration	6	21
2026-07-03	4,315.00	4,162.93	-15.47	65200	Deceleration	24	23
2026-06-26	4,260.00	4,139.54	-16.39	183100	Upward Expansion	27	22
2026-06-19	4,255.00	4,120.27	-18.90	92500	Upward Expansion	41	30
2026-06-12	4,525.00	4,094.81	-7.19	80000	Upward Expansion	62	66
2026-06-05	4,540.00	4,063.93	-7.80	91400	Upward Expansion	65	74
2026-05-29	4,885.00	4,024.58	-0.54	632800	Upward Expansion	79	84
2026-05-22	4,865.00	3,972.11	3.83	957100	Upward Expansion	83	77
2026-05-15	4,485.00	3,922.57	-1.13	511600	Upward Expansion	69	45
2026-05-08	4,510.00	3,885.87	-2.59	201900	Upward Expansion	73	42
2026-05-01	4,200.00	3,849.80	-4.52	298700	Upward Expansion	45	27
2026-04-24	4,055.00	3,825.69	-8.30	253300	Upward Expansion	53	35
2026-04-17	4,155.00	3,811.29	-4.34	235400	Upward Expansion	58	46
2026-04-10	4,255.00	3,790.96	0.40	359800	Upward Expansion	62	49
2026-04-03	4,285.00	3,768.92	8.15	445500	Upward Expansion	67	47
2026-03-27	4,345.00	3,746.05	9.20	544000	Upward Expansion	76	47
2026-03-20	4,045.00	3,716.94	1.81	369100	Upward Expansion	57	43
2026-03-13	3,940.00	3,694.90	-1.64	464300	Upward Expansion	61	51
2026-03-06	4,045.00	3,673.60	-2.31	401000	Upward Expansion	65	73
2026-02-27	4,270.00	3,649.61	-2.69	279400	Upward Expansion	87	92
2026-02-20	4,155.00	3,614.70	-1.98	431700	Upward Expansion	84	76
2026-02-13	4,055.00	3,576.95	-4.53	377800	Upward Expansion	80	62
2026-02-06	3,915.00	3,539.61	-3.06	264800	Upward Expansion	66	54
2026-01-30	3,855.00	3,508.07	-2.63	232700	Upward Expansion	65	60
2026-01-23	3,920.00	3,480.16	-1.66	248000	Upward Expansion	71	73
2026-01-16	3,930.00	3,443.76	-1.25	182900	Upward Expansion	78	78
2026-01-09	3,895.00	3,403.62	1.98	363200	Upward Expansion	80	74
2026-01-02	3,780.00	3,366.73	2.59	102500	Upward Expansion	73	70
2025-12-26	3,755.00	3,333.01	1.54	233900	Upward Expansion	72	69
2025-12-19	3,715.94	3,296.10	3.45	263500	Upward Expansion	71	72
2025-12-12	3,676.87	3,260.55	0.15	354600	Upward Expansion	69	70
2025-12-05	3,613.39	3,227.22	-0.51	189500	Upward Expansion	64	64
2025-11-28	3,681.76	3,202.41	2.20	352500	Deceleration	72	49
2025-11-21	3,491.32	3,174.90	0.52	343100	Deceleration	52	31
2025-11-14	3,598.75	3,153.35	0.37	545300	Deceleration	55	29
2025-11-07	3,359.48	3,126.37	-5.81	271800	Deceleration	29	23
2025-10-31	3,310.65	3,105.57	-10.75	330400	Deceleration	34	26
2025-10-24	3,379.01	3,084.05	-3.07	274000	Deceleration	39	25
2025-10-17	3,383.89	3,065.20	0.78	212600	Upward Expansion	46	38
2025-10-10	3,427.84	3,046.81	1.25	282600	Upward Expansion	51	48
2025-10-03	3,476.67	3,024.12	8.18	241700	Upward Expansion	65	62
2025-09-26	3,623.16	3,005.04	14.12	244700	Upward Expansion	72	68
2025-09-19	3,545.03	2,976.43	12.87	232500	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-09-12	3,593.86	2,952.24	15.56	310200	Upward Expansion	78	80
2025-09-05	3,598.75	2,915.29	21.02	304300	Upward Expansion	85	88
2025-08-29	3,471.79	2,875.68	18.22	265100	Upward Expansion	82	91
2025-08-22	3,383.89	2,840.36	16.05	195200	Upward Expansion	81	92
2025-08-15	3,300.88	2,807.35	11.76	333900	Upward Expansion	80	90
2025-08-08	3,325.30	2,773.98	17.14	241800	Upward Expansion	89	89
2025-08-01	3,222.76	2,737.98	16.73	271600	Upward Expansion	87	83
2025-07-25	3,022.56	2,707.80	8.13	178200	Upward Expansion	72	76
2025-07-18	2,934.66	2,684.78	9.43	118500	Upward Expansion	62	69
2025-07-11	2,968.84	2,661.13	11.69	195800	Upward Expansion	70	69
2025-07-04	3,017.67	2,637.82	13.26	828200	Balance	74	57
2025-06-27	2,828.21	2,613.68	5.67	490800	Balance	45	28
2025-06-20	2,725.67	2,595.69	6.67	287300	Balance	21	13
2025-06-13	2,788.17	2,579.57	10.91	263600	Upward Expansion	26	16
2025-06-06	2,768.64	2,563.33	10.63	327600	Upward Expansion	21	19
2025-05-30	2,647.54	2,547.45	5.42	196600	Upward Expansion	27	18
2025-05-23	2,649.50	2,535.11	8.01	273600	Upward Expansion	38	22
2025-05-16	2,676.84	2,524.09	7.60	671000	Upward Expansion	54	35
2025-05-09	2,869.23	2,515.98	16.32	198100	Upward Expansion	62	46
2025-05-02	2,856.53	2,501.77	18.28	225600	Upward Expansion	63	44
2025-04-25	2,844.82	2,489.76	21.90	326100	Deceleration	54	37
2025-04-18	2,789.15	2,482.12	23.33	284000	Deceleration	48	35
2025-04-11	2,735.44	2,471.09	25.54	684000	Upward Expansion	47	38
2025-04-04	2,665.12	2,456.10	22.13	460900	Upward Expansion	60	49
2025-03-28	2,813.56	2,444.88	17.83	456100	Upward Expansion	65	69
2025-03-21	2,832.12	2,432.40	17.35	383800	Upward Expansion	70	85
2025-03-14	2,747.16	2,418.93	16.37	457100	Upward Expansion	68	88
2025-03-07	2,904.39	2,410.06	24.18	446400	Upward Expansion	90	96
2025-02-28	2,764.73	2,393.51	18.24	449600	Rotation Up	87	90
2025-02-21	2,819.42	2,380.67	16.16	1078300	Rotation Up	67	78
2025-02-14	2,485.43	2,373.09	1.86	364400	Rotation Up	34	48
2025-02-07	2,410.23	2,376.67	-0.09	263100	Balance	21	25
2025-01-31	2,412.18	2,381.81	-2.01	264900	Balance	1	10
2025-01-24	2,393.63	2,385.59	-3.78	252600	Downward Expansion	-17	11
2025-01-17	2,299.88	2,390.50	-4.20	330100	Downward Expansion	-38	19
2025-01-10	2,245.19	2,398.87	-8.40	328800	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2025-01-03	2,317.46	2,410.43	-7.42	107700	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2024-12-27	2,332.10	2,417.11	-8.10	536200	Downward Expansion	-44	30
2024-12-20	2,225.04	2,419.30	-9.06	600500	Downward Expansion	-65	42
2024-12-13	2,269.60	2,429.28	-9.35	414000	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2024-12-06	2,293.30	2,437.12	-7.87	339200	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2024-11-29	2,288.56	2,444.74	-6.23	432500	Downward Expansion	-60	58
2024-11-22	2,242.11	2,453.39	-8.53	287900	Downward Expansion	-70	71
2024-11-15	2,300.89	2,463.32	-7.29	598100	Downward Expansion	-63	68
2024-11-08	2,292.35	2,470.49	-9.92	215600	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2024-11-01	2,277.19	2,482.56	-7.57	247700	Balance	-64	56
2024-10-25	2,318.90	2,490.53	-6.05	188000	Balance	-58	29
2024-10-18	2,433.61	2,496.21	-4.64	160100	Balance	-28	19
2024-10-11	2,443.09	2,493.47	-6.15	273700	Balance	-26	20
2024-10-04	2,496.18	2,486.92	-2.08	475800	Balance	-24	14
2024-09-27	2,615.64	2,475.42	-0.94	338900	Rotation Down	11	9
2024-09-20	2,458.26	2,463.70	-2.15	282100	Rotation Down	-26	34
2024-09-13	2,285.72	2,458.70	-6.59	248700	Rotation Down	-42	51
2024-09-06	2,328.38	2,455.04	-4.83	271000	Balance	-38	39
2024-08-30	2,439.30	2,454.47	-6.62	294300	Balance	-12	23
2024-08-23	2,427.92	2,452.60	-6.97	242900	Balance	-13	20
2024-08-16	2,481.01	2,451.31	-4.85	246100	Balance	13	15
2024-08-09	2,408.02	2,447.20	-0.31	704500	Balance	6	9
2024-08-02	2,379.57	2,447.39	-4.42	678000	Upward Expansion	14	8
2024-07-26	2,591.93	2,447.17	-1.48	595600	Upward Expansion	55	33
2024-07-19	2,592.88	2,438.45	-7.98	442900	Upward Expansion	57	33
2024-07-12	2,564.44	2,427.74	-12.20	561500	Upward Expansion	53	31
2024-07-05	2,525.57	2,419.34	-13.71	212200	Upward Expansion	49	32
2024-06-28	2,540.74	2,409.36	-11.00	512100	Upward Expansion	50	32
2024-06-21	2,551.17	2,400.33	-8.94	255400	Deceleration	51	27
2024-06-14	2,591.93	2,392.25	-8.62	270800	Deceleration	50	26
2024-06-07	2,517.99	2,384.40	-11.47	319700	Deceleration	35	18
2024-05-31	2,397.59	2,381.24	-15.80	339900	Deceleration	29	16
2024-05-24	2,524.62	2,385.10	-12.34	282100	Deceleration	41	29
2024-05-17	2,504.72	2,383.56	-13.97	319400	Upward Expansion	52	35
2024-05-10	2,521.78	2,379.55	-12.81	299900	Upward Expansion	55	40
2024-05-03	2,548.33	2,375.92	-12.72	91000	Upward Expansion	60	65
2024-04-26	2,539.79	2,374.64	-13.11	258100	Rotation Up	62	72
2024-04-19	2,516.09	2,376.19	-12.75	526800	Rotation Up	36	63
2024-04-12	2,654.51	2,379.21	-14.46	532900	Rotation Up	55	64
2024-04-05	2,516.09	2,380.42	-18.58	437700	Downward Expansion	33	33
2024-03-29	2,489.55	2,386.37	-22.96	523100	Downward Expansion	-3	6
2024-03-22	2,351.13	2,397.23	-29.00	300200	Downward Expansion	-45	29
2024-03-15	2,246.85	2,411.62	-29.19	302800	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2024-03-08	2,151.10	2,430.27	-34.70	495200	Downward Expansion	-74	67
2024-03-01	2,263.91	2,453.33	-32.49	374800	Downward Expansion	-57	50
2024-02-23	2,308.47	2,477.87	-30.52	767900	Downward Expansion	-53	39
2024-02-16	2,175.75	2,503.69	-34.21	617000	Downward Expansion	-75	47
2024-02-09	2,311.32	2,533.32	-27.95	353100	Downward Expansion	-37	23
2024-02-02	2,383.37	2,558.73	-24.80	196200	Downward Expansion	-30	19
2024-01-26	2,389.05	2,578.36	-24.30	267300	Downward Expansion	-34	22
2024-01-19	2,357.77	2,596.88	-26.24	264200	Downward Expansion	-37	23
2024-01-12	2,413.70	2,618.29	-24.19	264800	Downward Expansion	-42	31
2024-01-05	2,372.94	2,638.75	-21.05	140000	Downward Expansion	-48	40
2023-12-29	2,330.28	2,655.35	-23.09	423500	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2023-12-22	2,271.67	2,672.59	-24.82	395700	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2023-12-15	2,312.29	2,693.18	-23.50	452500	Downward Expansion	-67	77
2023-12-08	2,226.44	2,714.41	-25.23	506800	Downward Expansion	-79	85
2023-12-01	2,269.83	2,740.50	-26.71	309200	Downward Expansion	-77	73
2023-11-24	2,308.60	2,764.68	-26.27	176100	Downward Expansion	-78	65
2023-11-17	2,356.60	2,789.42	-25.08	480200	Downward Expansion	-75	62
2023-11-10	2,423.06	2,811.18	-20.98	488100	Downward Expansion	-70	63
2023-11-03	2,513.52	2,830.41	-16.77	259900	Downward Expansion	-65	69
2023-10-27	2,478.44	2,843.54	-15.68	508400	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2023-10-20	2,384.29	2,864.31	-19.83	443500	Downward Expansion	-83	92
2023-10-13	2,412.90	2,884.53	-21.84	276600	Downward Expansion	-87	93
2023-10-06	2,509.82	2,905.02	-15.64	288400	Downward Expansion	-82	87

Price vs TrendAbove+19.0%

Trend directionRising+7.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+73.0%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+28.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+12.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+29.1%

Price momentumPositive+24.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.25×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

79 / ±100

-4.9 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

60 /100

-28.9 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

2384 Directional State ↗ 2384 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance14

Rotation Up69

Upward Expansion82

Deceleration64

Rotation Down15

Downward Expansion9

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 47%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 25%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-09-25	Developing	+3.9%
Deceleration	2026-07-03	2026-08-14	Developing	+12.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-06-26	Extended	+17.9%
Deceleration	2025-10-24	2025-11-28	Developing	+9.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-11	2025-10-17	Established	+14.0%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-07-04	New	+10.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-06-13	Developing	-2.4%
Deceleration	2025-04-18	2025-04-25	New	+2.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-07	2025-04-11	Developing	-5.8%
Rotation Up	2025-02-14	2025-02-28	New	+11.2%
Balance	2025-01-31	2025-02-07	New	-0.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-08	2025-01-24	Developing	+4.4%
Balance	2024-10-04	2024-11-01	Developing	-8.8%
Rotation Down	2024-09-13	2024-09-27	New	+14.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution53

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 87/100
Current Relative Strength: 12.68
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +24.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -0.3%
Industrials regime cohort: 52th percentile306 in cohort

Test 2384 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.17×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.25×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 2384 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 5,176.67rising

Slow Activity JPY 4,701.26rising

Trend Reference JPY 4,529.00+19.0% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 3,115.80+73.0% close margin

Structural low JPY 3,985.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.6%

Annualized volatility +32.5%

From structural high -0.4%

From structural low +66.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	30	+0.5%-14.4% to +20.2%	+56.7%	+56.7%	-0.8%	+73.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	-0.7%-10.0% to +30.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-7.0%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+11.2%-10.6% to +24.4%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-1.4%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-0.8%-27.6% to +47.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-11.6%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

2384 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map