Weekly structural research · SHH · Consumer Defensive

600702 Stage Analysis

Shede Spirits Co., Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 32.71Tenure ExtendedBenchmark 000001.SS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -68−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 72/100directional strength

Maturity 79/100lifecycle context

Confidence 90/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -46.0%CNY 60.61 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	32.71	39.13	-27.85	13522005	Downward Expansion	-68	72
2026-09-25	32.48	39.70	-30.02	21475125	Downward Expansion	-75	71
2026-09-18	32.85	40.37	-30.61	22330989	Downward Expansion	-74	65
2026-09-11	33.36	41.05	-30.06	30312337	Downward Expansion	-75	55
2026-09-04	35.66	41.83	-27.03	32677892	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2026-08-28	35.38	42.50	-28.95	5589964	Downward Expansion	-49	36
2026-08-21	34.92	43.14	-29.76	4092000	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2026-08-14	37.13	43.84	-26.35	12157329	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2026-08-07	37.98	44.51	-25.43	18595259	Downward Expansion	-52	46
2026-07-31	38.78	45.10	-22.28	28471360	Downward Expansion	-66	61
2026-07-24	32.59	45.72	-34.82	8937320	Downward Expansion	-79	86
2026-07-17	32.72	46.55	-34.29	8563672	Downward Expansion	-85	92
2026-07-10	34.59	47.38	-35.14	11231466	Downward Expansion	-79	89
2026-07-03	35.88	48.14	-34.07	6898636	Downward Expansion	-76	89
2026-06-26	35.11	49.02	-35.73	10550098	Downward Expansion	-88	91
2026-06-19	38.18	49.92	-31.77	21876007	Downward Expansion	-78	68
2026-06-12	38.07	50.81	-31.48	4965756	Downward Expansion	-83	68
2026-06-05	40.83	51.52	-27.02	8441882	Downward Expansion	-74	64
2026-05-29	44.06	52.21	-22.63	68828019	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2026-05-22	40.10	52.70	-30.81	23711022	Downward Expansion	-83	87
2026-05-15	41.76	53.41	-28.97	33621398	Downward Expansion	-79	72
2026-05-08	43.97	53.97	-26.67	13420625	Downward Expansion	-68	61
2026-05-01	43.91	54.49	-26.21	16463626	Downward Expansion	-69	61
2026-04-24	45.19	55.03	-24.10	28186645	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2026-04-17	45.61	55.69	-23.49	32661643	Downward Expansion	-67	76
2026-04-10	44.73	56.35	-24.43	15380822	Downward Expansion	-72	87
2026-04-03	43.82	57.06	-24.53	21503795	Downward Expansion	-83	92
2026-03-27	44.93	57.87	-23.83	22708865	Downward Expansion	-85	92
2026-03-20	46.79	58.38	-22.12	26594289	Downward Expansion	-83	88
2026-03-13	49.87	58.61	-20.34	20829125	Downward Expansion	-74	81
2026-03-06	49.77	58.65	-21.42	31517434	Downward Expansion	-77	72
2026-02-27	52.69	58.71	-18.04	19206020	Downward Expansion	-67	52
2026-02-13	53.10	58.73	-16.14	41673923	Downward Expansion	-66	49
2026-02-06	56.81	58.70	-10.31	93497283	Rotation Down	-52	34
2026-01-30	55.87	58.53	-13.18	86278936	Rotation Down	-28	30
2026-01-23	54.48	58.35	-15.99	30416247	Rotation Down	-39	43
2026-01-16	55.91	58.18	-13.43	47204080	Rotation Down	-33	36
2026-01-09	57.12	57.97	-12.41	33107052	Rotation Down	-19	34
2026-01-02	55.65	57.71	-11.78	18169116	Balance	-27	40
2025-12-26	57.56	57.56	-9.09	30809524	Balance	1	18
2025-12-19	57.56	57.39	-7.97	31083521	Balance	4	14
2025-12-12	57.51	57.22	-8.66	39281232	Balance	6	8
2025-12-05	57.49	57.13	-9.77	41190782	Upward Expansion	16	14
2025-11-28	62.12	57.09	-2.92	49385205	Upward Expansion	50	31
2025-11-21	62.17	56.88	-2.31	53998900	Deceleration	50	31
2025-11-14	64.97	56.68	-2.54	100994502	Deceleration	60	31
2025-11-07	59.20	56.41	-11.99	33919150	Deceleration	33	17
2025-10-31	61.62	56.39	-8.26	53309470	Deceleration	37	19
2025-10-24	58.63	56.27	-13.03	43059088	Deceleration	32	22
2025-10-17	61.40	56.21	-6.78	57255045	Deceleration	36	25
2025-10-10	58.52	56.09	-12.79	15446013	Upward Expansion	41	25
2025-10-03	59.85	56.09	-10.98	15608866	Upward Expansion	58	43
2025-09-26	59.84	55.89	-9.95	39776013	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-09-19	65.00	55.73	-2.16	62322888	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-09-12	65.64	55.38	-2.30	72396250	Upward Expansion	72	90
2025-09-05	66.05	55.05	0.05	89300366	Rotation Up	83	90
2025-08-29	67.86	54.65	1.84	128703040	Rotation Up	54	74
2025-08-22	60.44	54.15	-8.29	123707094	Rotation Up	41	35
2025-08-15	53.61	53.94	-15.76	46427650	Downward Expansion	-24	16
2025-08-08	51.11	54.08	-18.63	17272687	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2025-08-01	51.62	54.22	-16.53	25723045	Downward Expansion	-34	23
2025-07-25	53.21	54.44	-15.13	42569181	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2025-07-18	52.12	54.91	-15.79	36305613	Downward Expansion	-47	37
2025-07-11	51.86	55.49	-15.97	32778272	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2025-07-04	50.46	56.23	-17.66	43428226	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2025-06-27	49.29	57.00	-18.77	30117277	Downward Expansion	-71	79
2025-06-20	49.53	57.94	-17.22	31161436	Downward Expansion	-73	79
2025-06-13	49.32	58.67	-18.55	24894173	Downward Expansion	-79	79
2025-06-06	51.14	59.54	-16.46	17466082	Downward Expansion	-73	69
2025-05-30	52.44	60.47	-14.07	16137992	Downward Expansion	-68	58
2025-05-23	52.66	60.88	-14.38	20278546	Downward Expansion	-68	49
2025-05-16	54.79	61.26	-12.12	28796657	Balance	-48	32
2025-05-09	56.23	61.55	-9.85	20212509	Balance	-41	27
2025-05-02	55.86	61.82	-9.31	16660442	Balance	-41	24
2025-04-25	56.12	61.92	-9.84	26796757	Balance	-29	17
2025-04-18	56.79	61.84	-8.76	41700509	Balance	-24	14
2025-04-11	58.78	61.34	-4.88	94524353	Balance	-31	19
2025-04-04	57.91	60.71	-9.63	39767147	Deceleration	-33	23
2025-03-28	56.78	60.16	-12.25	46972576	Deceleration	-37	21
2025-03-21	57.80	59.72	-11.68	82755590	Deceleration	-13	15
2025-03-14	58.66	59.23	-12.55	49579925	Deceleration	-17	23
2025-03-07	53.65	58.99	-19.64	43254129	Deceleration	-36	35
2025-02-28	55.17	59.01	-16.78	54180001	Rotation Down	-32	35
2025-02-21	54.59	58.95	-19.79	38861318	Rotation Down	-26	47
2025-02-14	55.49	58.87	-18.47	45843195	Rotation Down	-29	58
2025-02-07	54.33	58.87	-19.80	20764297	Rotation Down	-30	63
2025-01-31	52.63	58.87	-21.76	6079728	Rotation Down	-35	61
2025-01-24	54.09	58.91	-20.62	31292751	Deceleration	-33	43
2025-01-17	57.92	58.96	-15.80	29960771	Deceleration	-5	28
2025-01-10	55.21	59.15	-18.77	33360591	Deceleration	-2	22
2025-01-03	58.26	59.58	-16.26	35651686	Deceleration	18	19
2024-12-27	67.32	59.95	-9.66	28186623	Upward Expansion	41	28
2024-12-20	69.63	60.07	-6.41	34443221	Upward Expansion	56	41
2024-12-13	74.11	60.16	-1.81	73923532	Upward Expansion	60	48
2024-12-06	73.42	60.20	-3.78	50351507	Rotation Up	63	55
2024-11-29	77.42	60.19	2.94	64276295	Rotation Up	47	66
2024-11-22	71.69	59.94	-3.81	66728397	Rotation Up	39	60
2024-11-15	75.28	59.87	-1.89	107051745	Rotation Up	50	69
2024-11-08	79.08	59.60	-1.58	173077791	Rotation Up	55	74
2024-11-01	64.71	59.26	-15.96	96495965	Rotation Up	32	47
2024-10-25	64.11	59.59	-18.54	105272970	Rotation Up	33	48
2024-10-18	63.36	59.91	-19.50	100395821	Downward Expansion	34	46
2024-10-11	64.49	60.43	-18.15	127577310	Downward Expansion	8	29
2024-10-04	58.94	60.99	-28.89	1791066	Downward Expansion	-23	24
2024-09-27	53.58	61.51	-31.33	54871477	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2024-09-20	41.83	62.34	-40.65	23148897	Downward Expansion	-68	84
2024-09-13	39.93	63.59	-43.86	22374683	Downward Expansion	-81	92
2024-09-06	41.38	64.67	-44.26	25562495	Downward Expansion	-84	92
2024-08-30	43.51	65.68	-44.06	36527826	Downward Expansion	-85	86
2024-08-23	43.10	67.09	-45.82	36414325	Downward Expansion	-93	75
2024-08-16	51.33	68.53	-37.16	19484768	Downward Expansion	-76	69
2024-08-09	54.53	69.71	-34.00	32022105	Downward Expansion	-67	66
2024-08-02	53.25	70.68	-37.59	24953696	Downward Expansion	-71	77
2024-07-26	52.29	71.99	-39.25	23114946	Downward Expansion	-78	91
2024-07-19	55.31	73.06	-38.57	26254745	Downward Expansion	-70	89
2024-07-12	54.25	74.06	-40.24	34984014	Downward Expansion	-82	93
2024-07-05	53.89	75.27	-40.91	28418422	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2024-06-28	55.79	76.67	-40.01	36089629	Downward Expansion	-92	91
2024-06-21	63.60	78.22	-33.30	22583209	Downward Expansion	-79	72
2024-06-14	68.14	79.55	-30.07	16459075	Downward Expansion	-66	46
2024-06-07	69.36	80.81	-30.22	19766655	Downward Expansion	-50	32
2024-05-31	70.88	82.17	-30.56	20376998	Downward Expansion	-43	26
2024-05-24	72.20	83.45	-30.27	42384776	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2024-05-17	75.42	84.43	-29.59	36004027	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2024-05-10	72.94	85.81	-32.92	50717698	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2024-05-03	70.07	87.37	-35.57	17427801	Downward Expansion	-64	65
2024-04-26	69.49	89.23	-36.77	33979606	Downward Expansion	-64	67
2024-04-19	67.13	91.30	-39.40	31659164	Downward Expansion	-74	69
2024-04-12	68.88	93.63	-37.97	29038599	Downward Expansion	-74	53
2024-04-05	74.82	95.80	-34.88	26634560	Downward Expansion	-60	42
2024-03-29	73.64	97.62	-36.33	33875461	Downward Expansion	-64	45
2024-03-22	79.04	99.49	-32.73	57088271	Downward Expansion	-46	38
2024-03-15	81.06	101.23	-32.12	66494720	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2024-03-08	74.54	103.32	-38.32	41947890	Downward Expansion	-68	59
2024-03-01	78.45	105.75	-35.66	47956709	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2024-02-23	79.32	107.33	-35.53	62332544	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2024-02-09	72.53	108.94	-39.07	51308667	Downward Expansion	-83	74
2024-02-02	71.67	110.54	-37.66	55774514	Downward Expansion	-89	72
2024-01-26	85.64	112.11	-30.82	54035464	Downward Expansion	-68	63
2024-01-19	86.52	113.53	-28.91	52666562	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2024-01-12	86.52	115.34	-30.70	48544555	Downward Expansion	-67	64
2024-01-05	83.69	116.58	-34.59	32788274	Downward Expansion	-77	80
2023-12-29	92.64	118.70	-29.38	45002942	Downward Expansion	-68	85
2023-12-22	84.26	120.77	-34.98	34517331	Downward Expansion	-83	93
2023-12-15	85.49	123.07	-35.21	38383336	Downward Expansion	-87	93
2023-12-08	90.44	125.28	-32.63	29479671	Downward Expansion	-84	89
2023-12-01	95.80	127.85	-30.39	30748199	Downward Expansion	-81	82
2023-11-24	102.45	130.43	-26.17	23896194	Downward Expansion	-73	76
2023-11-17	103.31	132.64	-26.20	22669508	Downward Expansion	-74	80
2023-11-10	106.13	134.93	-24.12	24519755	Downward Expansion	-71	83
2023-11-03	110.08	137.50	-21.26	34470041	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2023-10-27	109.39	140.06	-21.61	41207689	Downward Expansion	-71	80
2023-10-20	101.46	142.45	-26.63	43203710	Downward Expansion	-87	85
2023-10-13	117.03	144.60	-18.57	22656120	Downward Expansion	-71	66
2023-09-29	119.75	146.56	-17.37	22629119	Downward Expansion	-69	47
2023-09-22	125.79	148.87	-13.89	25950817	Downward Expansion	-61	34

Price vs TrendBelow-16.4%

Trend directionFalling-14.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-46.0%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-27.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+6.2%

Price momentumNegative-25.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.58×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-68 / ±100

-10.7 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

72 /100

+29.6 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

600702 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance9

Rotation Up15

Upward Expansion15

Deceleration39

Rotation Down74

Downward Expansion93

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 6%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 6%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 65%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-10-02	Extended	-38.4%
Rotation Down	2026-01-09	2026-02-06	Developing	-0.5%
Balance	2025-12-12	2026-01-02	New	-3.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-28	2025-12-05	New	-7.5%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-11-21	Developing	+1.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-10-10	Developing	-10.9%
Rotation Up	2025-08-22	2025-09-05	New	+9.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-08-15	Established	+1.8%
Balance	2025-04-11	2025-05-16	Developing	-6.8%
Deceleration	2025-03-07	2025-04-04	Developing	+7.9%
Rotation Down	2025-01-31	2025-02-28	Developing	+4.8%
Deceleration	2025-01-03	2025-01-24	New	-7.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-13	2024-12-27	New	-9.2%
Rotation Up	2024-10-25	2024-12-06	Developing	+14.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing70

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution0

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 000001.SS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 95/100
Current Relative Strength: -27.85
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -25.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -24.4%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 82th percentile38 in cohort

Test 600702 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.74×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.58×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 600702 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 32.96falling

Slow Activity CNY 36.57falling

Trend Reference CNY 39.13-16.4% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 60.61-46.0% close margin

Structural low CNY 31.72shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +7.1%

Annualized volatility +38.5%

From structural high -52.1%

From structural low +3.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 000001.SS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	37	-2.5%-24.1% to +42.4%	+45.9%	+54.1%	-4.9%	+89.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	-13.7%-31.8% to +20.3%	+41.7%	+58.3%	-10.4%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-20.5%-35.2% to +46.1%	+42.9%	+57.1%	-16.7%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-20.7%-54.3% to +16.1%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-33.3%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

600702 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map