Weekly structural research · GER · Financial Services

BNP Stage Analysis

BNP Paribas SA

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 92.04Tenure NewBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -23−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 36/100directional strength

Maturity 58/100lifecycle context

Confidence 83/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +34.7%EUR 68.34 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	92.04	95.50	2.10	56115	Deceleration	-23	36
2026-09-25	99.29	95.23	9.69	34185	Deceleration	7	26
2026-09-18	97.48	95.01	8.56	23760	Deceleration	7	31
2026-09-11	100.34	94.83	11.01	21039	Deceleration	31	39
2026-09-04	101.15	94.38	10.33	21678	Upward Expansion	44	32
2026-08-28	99.16	94.03	6.51	6714	Upward Expansion	55	57
2026-08-21	104.12	93.67	14.13	3897	Upward Expansion	68	86
2026-08-14	112.10	93.06	21.99	2557	Upward Expansion	83	94
2026-08-07	112.54	92.14	23.72	7221	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-07-31	109.72	91.21	24.64	4083	Upward Expansion	91	95
2026-07-24	105.84	90.21	23.61	6439	Upward Expansion	85	91
2026-07-17	102.00	89.29	21.21	2493	Upward Expansion	70	87
2026-07-10	100.62	88.50	19.18	4231	Upward Expansion	68	87
2026-07-03	102.64	87.68	18.93	4939	Upward Expansion	80	91
2026-06-26	101.22	86.70	23.28	4612	Upward Expansion	80	88
2026-06-19	101.52	85.71	22.87	1738	Upward Expansion	85	86
2026-06-12	96.72	84.60	19.47	11442	Upward Expansion	77	75
2026-06-05	93.56	83.61	15.61	4040	Upward Expansion	67	57
2026-05-29	93.10	82.61	13.97	29882	Upward Expansion	65	43
2026-05-22	89.88	81.68	11.44	37889	Upward Expansion	56	32
2026-05-15	86.71	80.90	12.11	30929	Upward Expansion	48	29
2026-05-08	88.92	80.43	13.60	46934	Upward Expansion	55	44
2026-05-01	86.69	79.91	11.45	44910	Upward Expansion	40	34
2026-04-24	86.54	79.54	12.44	29665	Deceleration	38	31
2026-04-17	91.58	79.17	16.73	23655	Deceleration	54	30
2026-04-10	87.76	78.61	16.62	52170	Deceleration	28	22
2026-04-03	80.88	78.16	11.00	69914	Deceleration	8	23
2026-03-27	78.80	77.87	12.74	69406	Deceleration	11	25
2026-03-20	79.76	77.64	14.01	35733	Upward Expansion	29	24
2026-03-13	82.47	77.60	12.86	60249	Upward Expansion	48	41
2026-03-06	83.89	77.47	14.55	92073	Upward Expansion	63	56
2026-02-27	92.71	77.23	18.57	30233	Upward Expansion	79	71
2026-02-20	92.00	76.53	18.37	32660	Upward Expansion	83	83
2026-02-13	86.88	75.93	13.91	54910	Upward Expansion	68	84
2026-02-06	90.52	75.47	20.18	59651	Upward Expansion	85	94
2026-01-30	88.56	74.85	19.08	24295	Upward Expansion	87	94
2026-01-23	85.55	74.24	14.06	57952	Upward Expansion	81	92
2026-01-16	84.67	73.80	11.69	45584	Upward Expansion	82	90
2026-01-09	84.62	73.30	12.30	81479	Upward Expansion	89	89
2026-01-02	79.62	72.84	9.31	19584	Rotation Up	67	77
2025-12-26	78.29	72.63	8.82	13069	Rotation Up	37	57
2025-12-19	78.31	72.43	9.53	45840	Rotation Up	39	41
2025-12-12	75.92	72.20	7.11	64948	Downward Expansion	18	26
2025-12-05	73.25	72.00	4.43	63654	Downward Expansion	-21	17
2025-11-28	71.58	71.84	3.21	74366	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2025-11-21	68.36	71.70	2.07	79424	Rotation Down	-62	69
2025-11-14	66.82	71.56	-3.29	119439	Rotation Down	-37	68
2025-11-07	63.64	71.41	-6.66	63380	Rotation Down	-52	72
2025-10-31	65.15	71.22	-6.03	190472	Deceleration	-38	53
2025-10-24	66.54	71.07	-5.25	330942	Deceleration	-13	18
2025-10-17	72.77	71.16	5.25	45249	Deceleration	30	15
2025-10-10	73.18	71.08	4.10	77646	Deceleration	38	22
2025-10-03	75.72	70.87	7.23	45460	Deceleration	55	31
2025-09-26	75.30	70.60	9.73	38393	Deceleration	41	21
2025-09-19	74.73	70.23	9.58	41341	Deceleration	36	22
2025-09-12	74.39	69.83	8.89	43583	Upward Expansion	40	23
2025-09-05	71.96	69.41	5.90	60271	Upward Expansion	54	37
2025-08-29	72.10	69.05	4.77	188078	Upward Expansion	61	50
2025-08-22	78.37	68.58	11.81	25766	Upward Expansion	76	79
2025-08-15	78.68	67.84	12.50	20913	Upward Expansion	83	74
2025-08-08	76.58	67.05	10.59	30494	Upward Expansion	78	62
2025-08-01	71.89	66.24	7.24	23305	Upward Expansion	59	46
2025-07-25	74.01	65.57	6.87	46027	Upward Expansion	70	58
2025-07-18	73.11	64.82	5.23	23800	Upward Expansion	69	49
2025-07-11	71.88	64.07	3.57	30002	Upward Expansion	52	39
2025-07-04	70.32	63.41	3.33	35358	Upward Expansion	47	37
2025-06-27	72.15	62.79	4.88	32826	Upward Expansion	64	47
2025-06-20	69.84	62.05	4.57	27278	Upward Expansion	61	50
2025-06-13	70.76	61.40	5.28	29936	Upward Expansion	64	67
2025-06-06	73.36	60.81	5.72	37237	Upward Expansion	75	81
2025-05-30	72.38	60.12	5.53	26042	Upward Expansion	75	79
2025-05-23	71.18	59.56	5.25	62083	Upward Expansion	73	75
2025-05-16	70.11	59.11	2.96	52916	Upward Expansion	72	66
2025-05-09	68.36	58.73	1.37	37215	Deceleration	68	45
2025-05-02	67.35	58.28	1.51	36707	Deceleration	51	26
2025-04-25	64.20	57.82	0.30	64104	Deceleration	33	29
2025-04-18	62.42	57.55	2.17	60219	Deceleration	36	26
2025-04-11	57.88	57.37	-1.45	192039	Upward Expansion	36	30
2025-04-04	60.63	57.31	1.76	138461	Upward Expansion	65	58
2025-03-28	69.28	57.12	6.80	74974	Upward Expansion	76	81
2025-03-21	70.37	56.65	6.53	59701	Upward Expansion	90	94
2025-03-14	66.76	56.11	0.80	48275	Upward Expansion	80	92
2025-03-07	67.58	55.68	1.99	62103	Upward Expansion	92	97
2025-02-28	64.29	55.17	-0.87	30813	Upward Expansion	86	95
2025-02-21	62.75	54.78	-1.96	41244	Upward Expansion	85	94
2025-02-14	61.75	54.59	-4.40	46836	Rotation Up	85	92
2025-02-07	61.31	54.38	-1.84	65942	Rotation Up	52	73
2025-01-31	57.98	54.18	-6.81	30237	Rotation Up	40	46
2025-01-24	56.12	54.12	-8.43	23595	Downward Expansion	15	20
2025-01-17	54.92	54.00	-8.54	40238	Downward Expansion	-17	13
2025-01-10	52.36	53.91	-10.08	34077	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2025-01-03	51.56	53.89	-10.34	14293	Downward Expansion	-52	33
2024-12-27	51.63	54.12	-10.89	10098	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2024-12-20	50.72	54.38	-12.33	19979	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2024-12-13	52.04	54.66	-12.66	89966	Downward Expansion	-60	65
2024-12-06	51.66	54.93	-13.53	49417	Downward Expansion	-61	69
2024-11-29	50.01	55.16	-13.36	52215	Downward Expansion	-72	73
2024-11-22	50.29	55.36	-11.71	34551	Balance	-72	60
2024-11-15	53.03	55.54	-6.57	72623	Balance	-55	30
2024-11-08	52.71	55.57	-7.27	45525	Balance	-27	14
2024-11-01	55.69	55.62	-2.40	24409	Balance	21	30
2024-10-25	57.65	55.60	-0.17	9830	Balance	22	24
2024-10-18	58.54	55.49	0.29	52435	Balance	30	18
2024-10-11	54.88	55.28	-4.69	5537	Balance	-22	11
2024-10-04	53.69	55.14	-5.71	33084	Balance	5	11
2024-09-27	55.88	54.97	-3.92	28249	Balance	41	34
2024-09-20	57.22	54.66	2.09	26625	Balance	53	33
2024-09-13	55.89	54.31	-0.29	9934	Balance	31	20
2024-09-06	54.91	53.94	-0.04	13139	Balance	17	10
2024-08-30	55.21	53.59	-2.76	7743	Deceleration	15	12
2024-08-23	54.21	53.30	-3.23	10699	Deceleration	7	16
2024-08-16	53.96	53.21	-2.16	16932	Deceleration	8	13
2024-08-09	52.35	53.09	-1.95	41907	Deceleration	-2	8
2024-08-02	52.63	53.02	-1.18	68454	Deceleration	11	9
2024-07-26	56.81	53.00	2.23	25379	Deceleration	44	29
2024-07-19	55.57	52.84	1.38	17088	Deceleration	16	10
2024-07-12	55.18	52.73	-2.36	74077	Deceleration	11	17
2024-07-05	56.24	52.63	1.00	64538	Deceleration	24	31
2024-06-28	52.60	52.46	-4.22	42333	Deceleration	9	28
2024-06-21	52.29	52.30	-4.45	63481	Deceleration	18	23
2024-06-14	51.54	52.13	-4.97	141199	Upward Expansion	28	30
2024-06-07	58.62	51.98	4.85	17525	Upward Expansion	67	75
2024-05-31	59.42	51.56	6.77	10111	Upward Expansion	72	88
2024-05-24	59.18	51.14	5.45	33070	Upward Expansion	74	89
2024-05-17	59.90	50.67	6.83	25040	Upward Expansion	88	94
2024-05-10	58.81	50.21	4.74	20474	Upward Expansion	89	90
2024-05-03	56.00	49.84	4.20	19842	Upward Expansion	76	78
2024-04-26	55.43	49.63	2.44	25015	Upward Expansion	73	78
2024-04-19	54.10	49.45	2.51	18367	Upward Expansion	66	81
2024-04-12	54.13	49.32	1.59	28422	Upward Expansion	70	83
2024-04-05	55.09	49.21	2.07	23456	Rotation Up	83	86
2024-03-29	54.52	48.99	-0.59	34682	Rotation Up	83	61
2024-03-22	52.01	48.81	-3.55	34196	Downward Expansion	41	36
2024-03-15	50.68	48.69	-4.46	36194	Downward Expansion	-1	9
2024-03-08	48.74	48.60	-7.40	38373	Downward Expansion	-51	37
2024-03-01	46.47	48.62	-11.49	41378	Downward Expansion	-60	70
2024-02-23	46.70	48.71	-9.77	58706	Downward Expansion	-60	63
2024-02-16	44.97	48.81	-11.91	53520	Deceleration	-64	63
2024-02-09	44.26	48.91	-12.68	129712	Deceleration	-30	35
2024-02-02	46.45	49.00	-8.67	57550	Upward Expansion	6	15
2024-01-26	51.74	48.96	1.26	8227	Upward Expansion	55	35
2024-01-19	50.15	48.83	0.47	14914	Upward Expansion	57	39
2024-01-12	50.37	48.68	-0.01	27308	Upward Expansion	63	64
2024-01-05	52.16	48.56	4.21	16305	Upward Expansion	67	78
2023-12-29	51.96	48.38	2.84	2779	Upward Expansion	67	78
2023-12-22	52.11	48.20	3.51	8821	Upward Expansion	73	75
2023-12-15	52.25	48.02	3.57	48284	Balance	73	53
2023-12-08	51.14	47.83	1.46	22232	Balance	37	26
2023-12-01	47.79	47.63	-2.96	16625	Rotation Down	-10	10
2023-11-24	47.17	47.53	-1.95	9202	Rotation Down	-15	17
2023-11-17	46.95	47.46	-1.67	29068	Rotation Down	-20	42
2023-11-10	46.05	47.41	0.86	23065	Upward Expansion	-25	46
2023-11-03	46.91	47.41	3.19	124667	Upward Expansion	-18	30
2023-10-27	45.23	47.32	3.00	16187	Upward Expansion	-30	31
2023-10-20	46.04	47.23	4.26	61130	Upward Expansion	7	11
2023-10-13	47.74	47.00	5.55	21302	Upward Expansion	33	21

Price vs TrendBelow-3.6%

Trend directionRising+5.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+34.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-26.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+2.1%

Relative strength directionWeakening-16.8%

Price momentumPositive+13.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.64×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-23 / ±100

-66.9 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

36 /100

+3.3 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BNP Directional State ↗ BNP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance45

Rotation Up14

Upward Expansion44

Deceleration87

Rotation Down51

Downward Expansion36

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 9%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 50%Deceleration 21%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 11%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-11	2026-10-02	New	-8.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-09-04	Established	+16.7%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-04-24	Developing	+9.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-03-20	Developing	-5.8%
Rotation Up	2025-12-19	2026-01-02	New	+1.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-28	2025-12-12	New	+6.1%
Rotation Down	2025-11-07	2025-11-21	New	+7.4%
Deceleration	2025-09-19	2025-10-31	Developing	-12.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-09-12	Established	+6.1%
Deceleration	2025-04-18	2025-05-09	New	+9.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-04-11	Developing	-7.7%
Rotation Up	2025-01-31	2025-02-14	New	+6.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-29	2025-01-24	Developing	+12.2%
Balance	2024-09-06	2024-11-22	Developing	-8.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing13

Stage 2 · Advancing67

Stage 3 · Distribution71

Stage 4 · Declining33

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 49/100
Current Relative Strength: 2.10
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +13.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +4.9%
Financial Services regime cohort: 83th percentile23 in cohort

Test BNP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume3.88×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.64×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BNP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 96.78falling

Slow Activity EUR 99.42rising

Trend Reference EUR 95.50-3.6% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 68.34+34.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 80.52shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.7%

Annualized volatility +27.4%

From structural high -18.5%

From structural low +45.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	19	+4.6%-8.2% to +16.0%	+73.7%	+73.7%	+1.5%	+57.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+15.0%-13.4% to +32.9%	+88.9%	+88.9%	+10.3%	+11.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+22.1%+16.6% to +30.4%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+17.9%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+31.7%-2.0% to +33.6%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+13.1%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BNP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map