Weekly structural research · VIE · Basic Materials

AKE Stage Analysis

Arkema S.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 55.25Tenure NewBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -38−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 58/100directional strength

Maturity 5/100lifecycle context

Confidence 67/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -15.7%EUR 65.55 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	55.25	57.45	-10.26	0	Rotation Down	-38	58
2026-10-02	54.05	57.36	-14.81	0	Balance	-51	44
2026-09-25	57.10	57.24	-13.40	200	Balance	11	24
2026-09-18	56.40	57.25	-13.11	0	Balance	6	17
2026-09-11	56.85	57.29	-14.07	0	Upward Expansion	18	11
2026-09-04	58.95	57.40	-11.21	0	Upward Expansion	57	56
2026-08-28	59.75	57.25	-9.63	0	Upward Expansion	61	74
2026-08-21	59.60	56.87	-8.40	0	Upward Expansion	60	68
2026-08-14	61.70	56.51	-7.23	0	Upward Expansion	74	71
2026-08-07	62.05	56.05	-6.11	0	Deceleration	63	41
2026-07-31	59.05	55.65	-8.48	0	Deceleration	26	16
2026-07-24	55.75	55.33	-14.10	0	Deceleration	0	21
2026-07-17	55.75	55.09	-13.63	0	Deceleration	1	23
2026-07-10	54.30	54.85	-18.14	0	Deceleration	-11	25
2026-07-03	56.40	54.71	-16.81	0	Deceleration	23	25
2026-06-26	55.85	54.44	-16.31	18	Upward Expansion	29	21
2026-06-19	57.95	54.22	-15.54	0	Upward Expansion	46	32
2026-06-12	57.00	53.86	-14.00	0	Upward Expansion	59	41
2026-06-05	60.40	53.60	-6.92	0	Upward Expansion	64	57
2026-05-29	61.35	53.17	-6.95	0	Upward Expansion	71	57
2026-05-22	59.15	52.74	-8.37	60	Upward Expansion	62	48
2026-05-15	58.96	52.44	-7.30	0	Upward Expansion	62	57
2026-05-08	59.20	52.08	-7.86	0	Upward Expansion	64	63
2026-05-01	57.92	51.70	-9.03	130	Upward Expansion	60	63
2026-04-24	58.40	51.47	-8.38	0	Upward Expansion	63	64
2026-04-17	58.49	51.23	-12.03	0	Upward Expansion	66	60
2026-04-10	58.30	51.04	-10.76	0	Balance	63	33
2026-04-03	54.58	50.96	-11.65	565	Balance	37	20
2026-03-27	55.05	50.94	-8.47	192	Balance	37	26
2026-03-20	48.07	51.02	-19.56	192	Rotation Up	12	15
2026-03-13	52.32	51.40	-14.54	547	Rotation Up	27	25
2026-03-06	50.67	51.61	-20.34	0	Rotation Up	28	59
2026-02-27	57.41	51.86	-15.54	0	Rotation Up	40	74
2026-02-20	57.36	51.78	-18.07	0	Rotation Up	44	72
2026-02-13	60.42	51.89	-12.01	0	Rotation Up	47	62
2026-02-06	54.44	51.86	-22.25	0	Rotation Up	10	11
2026-01-30	48.17	52.05	-31.40	0	Downward Expansion	-55	31
2026-01-23	48.78	52.40	-30.43	361	Downward Expansion	-50	28
2026-01-16	47.93	52.77	-31.98	0	Downward Expansion	-60	34
2026-01-09	50.20	53.05	-28.82	384	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2026-01-02	49.21	53.27	-30.38	0	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2025-12-26	48.59	53.54	-30.70	0	Downward Expansion	-48	34
2025-12-19	48.69	53.91	-31.21	0	Downward Expansion	-46	34
2025-12-12	50.20	54.22	-28.08	0	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2025-12-05	48.17	54.54	-31.53	0	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2025-11-28	49.11	54.90	-30.11	194	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2025-11-21	47.32	55.26	-30.41	0	Downward Expansion	-72	65
2025-11-14	49.16	55.64	-29.51	0	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2025-11-07	47.37	55.82	-31.52	0	Downward Expansion	-76	85
2025-10-31	48.64	56.00	-31.40	0	Downward Expansion	-70	83
2025-10-24	50.05	56.23	-28.24	0	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2025-10-17	48.07	56.70	-30.60	0	Downward Expansion	-78	86
2025-10-10	48.03	57.35	-32.85	0	Downward Expansion	-84	86
2025-10-03	51.00	58.21	-30.98	0	Downward Expansion	-74	77
2025-09-26	51.00	58.97	-30.41	0	Downward Expansion	-76	75
2025-09-19	53.07	59.62	-28.08	0	Downward Expansion	-68	62
2025-09-12	55.80	60.29	-25.44	0	Downward Expansion	-53	39
2025-09-05	54.06	60.92	-27.65	0	Downward Expansion	-64	35
2025-08-29	57.22	61.50	-24.44	0	Downward Expansion	-46	21
2025-08-22	59.62	61.88	-24.77	0	Downward Expansion	-30	20
2025-08-15	58.49	62.21	-27.69	0	Downward Expansion	-34	22
2025-08-08	58.21	62.48	-26.75	10	Downward Expansion	-33	21
2025-08-01	54.91	62.66	-27.43	9	Downward Expansion	-52	26
2025-07-25	60.71	62.93	-22.60	0	Downward Expansion	-17	14
2025-07-18	59.67	63.02	-23.01	0	Downward Expansion	-32	20
2025-07-11	60.09	63.12	-23.02	0	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2025-07-04	58.58	63.36	-23.81	0	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2025-06-27	60.05	63.68	-23.12	0	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2025-06-20	56.18	63.89	-27.21	0	Downward Expansion	-65	50
2025-06-13	56.89	64.22	-27.30	8	Downward Expansion	-62	42
2025-06-06	57.26	64.64	-29.06	0	Downward Expansion	-51	36
2025-05-30	59.76	65.12	-26.31	16	Downward Expansion	-42	31
2025-05-23	57.83	65.55	-28.64	0	Downward Expansion	-47	33
2025-05-16	59.83	66.03	-27.74	0	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2025-05-09	58.90	66.55	-27.46	0	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2025-05-02	60.10	67.12	-23.30	0	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2025-04-25	58.72	67.73	-24.67	0	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2025-04-18	54.36	68.35	-28.31	0	Downward Expansion	-76	89
2025-04-11	52.93	68.93	-27.12	0	Downward Expansion	-86	86
2025-04-04	55.60	69.54	-25.09	0	Downward Expansion	-82	56
2025-03-28	64.06	70.08	-22.94	0	Balance	-31	20
2025-03-21	67.54	70.43	-20.97	0	Rotation Up	-8	10
2025-03-14	73.72	70.57	-15.11	0	Rotation Up	27	30
2025-03-07	73.81	70.46	-15.35	0	Rotation Up	30	49
2025-02-28	70.56	70.35	-16.84	0	Rotation Up	24	42
2025-02-21	73.23	70.46	-12.18	0	Rotation Up	31	46
2025-02-14	74.84	70.50	-11.62	0	Downward Expansion	40	43
2025-02-07	71.41	70.49	-11.75	0	Downward Expansion	-6	22
2025-01-31	68.60	70.58	-15.41	0	Downward Expansion	-35	24
2025-01-24	69.45	70.82	-14.54	0	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2025-01-17	66.56	70.96	-17.24	0	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2025-01-10	63.48	71.30	-18.88	0	Downward Expansion	-67	79
2025-01-03	63.13	71.81	-19.85	0	Downward Expansion	-73	79
2024-12-27	63.57	72.38	-19.39	0	Downward Expansion	-75	78
2024-12-20	62.42	73.00	-20.54	0	Downward Expansion	-83	76
2024-12-13	67.31	73.68	-16.26	0	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2024-12-06	68.38	74.27	-13.91	0	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2024-11-29	66.11	74.84	-16.08	0	Downward Expansion	-78	81
2024-11-22	66.16	75.47	-16.26	0	Downward Expansion	-82	77
2024-11-15	69.67	76.00	-12.79	0	Balance	-68	54
2024-11-08	71.59	76.45	-10.61	0	Balance	-48	34
2024-11-01	72.66	76.86	-8.95	0	Balance	-38	22
2024-10-25	72.30	77.33	-11.06	0	Balance	-24	17
2024-10-18	75.19	77.66	-9.01	0	Downward Expansion	-6	23
2024-10-11	76.26	77.88	-7.73	0	Downward Expansion	-8	21
2024-10-04	78.31	77.97	-5.36	0	Downward Expansion	-10	15
2024-09-27	77.42	78.09	-7.68	0	Downward Expansion	-27	20
2024-09-20	71.76	78.24	-13.94	0	Downward Expansion	-59	42
2024-09-13	71.14	78.69	-14.74	0	Downward Expansion	-66	47
2024-09-06	71.76	79.13	-13.83	0	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2024-08-30	74.44	79.57	-14.58	0	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2024-08-23	71.76	80.00	-17.19	0	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2024-08-16	70.61	80.52	-17.58	0	Downward Expansion	-76	65
2024-08-09	70.38	81.04	-16.79	0	Downward Expansion	-84	67
2024-08-02	73.81	81.50	-12.36	0	Downward Expansion	-70	61
2024-07-26	74.61	81.91	-15.27	0	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2024-07-19	74.44	82.38	-15.82	0	Downward Expansion	-71	85
2024-07-12	74.08	82.77	-17.25	0	Downward Expansion	-79	91
2024-07-05	75.91	83.13	-15.57	0	Downward Expansion	-71	88
2024-06-28	73.50	83.25	-16.21	0	Downward Expansion	-92	93
2024-06-21	76.88	83.47	-12.04	0	Downward Expansion	-82	83
2024-06-14	78.71	83.53	-8.57	0	Balance	-75	72
2024-06-07	80.31	83.55	-9.91	0	Balance	-35	38
2024-05-31	82.09	83.35	-8.73	0	Balance	5	3
2024-05-24	82.76	83.20	-9.44	0	Deceleration	24	17
2024-05-17	85.03	82.97	-7.20	0	Deceleration	50	28
2024-05-10	85.59	82.66	-5.04	0	Deceleration	56	27
2024-05-03	84.86	82.36	-3.34	0	Deceleration	40	19
2024-04-26	82.24	82.12	-5.14	0	Deceleration	22	19
2024-04-19	83.05	82.04	-3.84	0	Deceleration	31	24
2024-04-12	84.00	81.89	-3.17	0	Deceleration	30	21
2024-04-05	86.58	81.70	-0.47	0	Deceleration	40	21
2024-03-29	82.44	81.50	-4.32	0	Deceleration	-20	37
2024-03-22	81.70	81.55	-4.19	0	Deceleration	-21	35
2024-03-15	78.91	81.53	-5.12	0	Deceleration	-22	34
2024-03-08	81.92	81.64	-0.64	0	Deceleration	13	20
2024-03-01	81.92	81.69	-0.54	0	Deceleration	24	21
2024-02-23	85.39	81.77	3.56	0	Upward Expansion	45	32
2024-02-16	84.31	81.65	1.78	0	Upward Expansion	48	40
2024-02-09	84.76	81.42	4.04	0	Upward Expansion	61	47
2024-02-02	87.35	81.17	4.87	0	Upward Expansion	69	54
2024-01-26	87.39	80.72	4.69	0	Upward Expansion	72	56
2024-01-19	86.32	80.14	7.07	0	Upward Expansion	69	67
2024-01-12	84.00	79.54	2.75	0	Upward Expansion	67	83
2024-01-05	86.32	79.16	4.82	0	Upward Expansion	70	89
2023-12-29	88.51	78.71	7.64	0	Upward Expansion	92	95
2023-12-22	86.40	78.10	6.19	0	Upward Expansion	90	87
2023-12-15	84.84	77.71	5.66	0	Deceleration	84	70
2023-12-08	79.29	77.38	0.40	0	Deceleration	42	35
2023-12-01	80.27	77.18	1.95	0	Deceleration	46	27
2023-11-24	78.52	76.96	1.83	108	Deceleration	22	14
2023-11-17	79.50	76.79	2.66	108	Deceleration	14	16
2023-11-10	74.16	76.59	-1.97	0	Deceleration	-44	62
2023-11-03	77.61	76.60	3.10	0	Deceleration	-5	36
2023-10-27	75.84	76.49	6.44	0	Deceleration	-15	41
2023-10-20	75.84	76.44	6.17	0	Deceleration	-12	27

Price vs TrendBelow-3.8%

Trend directionRising+3.2%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-15.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+3.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-10.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+7.9%

Price momentumNegative-5.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led5.00×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-38 / ±100

-56.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

58 /100

+46.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AKE Directional State ↗ AKE Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance32

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion20

Deceleration44

Rotation Down71

Downward Expansion62

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 9%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 18%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 48%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Balance	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	-4.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-09-11	Developing	-7.9%
Deceleration	2026-07-03	2026-08-07	Developing	+10.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-06-26	Developing	-4.5%
Balance	2026-03-27	2026-04-10	New	+5.9%
Rotation Up	2026-02-06	2026-03-20	Developing	-11.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-04	2026-01-30	Extended	-13.4%
Balance	2025-03-28	2025-03-28	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2025-02-21	2025-03-21	Developing	-7.8%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-22	2025-02-14	Established	+13.1%
Balance	2024-10-25	2024-11-15	New	-3.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-06-21	2024-10-18	Established	-2.2%
Balance	2024-05-31	2024-06-14	New	-4.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing63

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution29

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 65/100
Current Relative Strength: -10.26
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -5.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -17.8%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 86th percentile7 in cohort

Test AKE trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.00×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume5.00×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AKE Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 55.56falling

Slow Activity EUR 57.68falling

Trend Reference EUR 57.45-3.8% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 65.55-15.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 53.65shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +3.8%

Annualized volatility +20.7%

From structural high -11.9%

From structural low +20.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	3	+0.4%-0.6% to +16.9%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-0.5%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	2	-1.1%-21.3% to +19.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+3.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	-8.3%-30.7% to +14.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-2.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-0.1%-16.8% to +16.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-5.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AKE Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map