Weekly structural research · ASX · Industrials

ASH Stage Analysis

Ashley Services Group Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 0.295Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 59−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 45/100directional strength

Maturity 58/100lifecycle context

Confidence 86/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +33.1%AUD 0.2216 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.295	0.2499	27.77	6810	Upward Expansion	59	45
2026-10-02	0.305	0.2479	34.22	30173	Upward Expansion	69	62
2026-09-25	0.30	0.2454	33.92	133905	Upward Expansion	66	57
2026-09-18	0.29	0.2439	29.94	84946	Upward Expansion	61	52
2026-09-11	0.305	0.2424	37.94	162776	Upward Expansion	77	54
2026-09-04	0.28	0.2397	24.59	10688	Upward Expansion	58	42
2026-08-28	0.3023	0.2378	34.62	476183	Upward Expansion	83	57
2026-08-21	0.2447	0.2356	10.70	27101	Upward Expansion	49	44
2026-08-14	0.2687	0.2351	21.61	34759	Upward Expansion	64	65
2026-08-07	0.2927	0.2335	31.60	1700	Upward Expansion	89	78
2026-07-31	0.2639	0.2312	23.65	66	Upward Expansion	65	70
2026-07-24	0.27	0.2291	30.42	24099	Upward Expansion	73	88
2026-07-17	0.26	0.2264	26.50	2000	Upward Expansion	67	86
2026-07-10	0.27	0.2241	32.44	9217	Upward Expansion	77	90
2026-07-03	0.27	0.2215	33.24	44990	Upward Expansion	83	90
2026-06-26	0.265	0.2193	33.22	48495	Upward Expansion	84	83
2026-06-19	0.245	0.217	23.51	40107	Upward Expansion	70	70
2026-06-12	0.255	0.2155	29.88	31085	Balance	70	63
2026-06-05	0.23	0.2139	20.57	415056	Balance	22	27
2026-05-29	0.22	0.2129	14.52	0	Balance	9	19
2026-05-22	0.22	0.2125	15.96	25094	Balance	4	10
2026-05-15	0.225	0.2103	19.47	62099	Rotation Down	9	8
2026-05-08	0.21	0.2081	10.44	79090	Rotation Down	-22	29
2026-05-01	0.19	0.2064	0.32	99264	Rotation Down	-27	53
2026-04-24	0.19	0.2056	-0.18	113290	Rotation Down	-28	45
2026-04-17	0.19	0.2049	-1.95	137589	Deceleration	-30	36
2026-04-10	0.19	0.2043	-2.16	223547	Deceleration	-13	25
2026-04-03	0.20	0.203	7.52	189963	Deceleration	11	14
2026-03-27	0.23	0.2016	24.61	405457	Deceleration	38	21
2026-03-20	0.22	0.1993	21.04	204816	Upward Expansion	44	34
2026-03-13	0.235	0.1975	26.97	530859	Upward Expansion	59	51
2026-03-06	0.23	0.1949	21.50	563057	Upward Expansion	61	54
2026-02-27	0.2539	0.1929	29.37	547013	Upward Expansion	82	66
2026-02-20	0.2468	0.1903	27.71	987614	Upward Expansion	83	82
2026-02-13	0.223	0.1874	17.98	96950	Upward Expansion	65	80
2026-02-06	0.223	0.1854	21.51	155942	Upward Expansion	67	84
2026-01-30	0.2373	0.1832	27.66	90632	Upward Expansion	82	92
2026-01-23	0.2278	0.1808	23.59	137024	Upward Expansion	73	73
2026-01-16	0.223	0.1784	21.11	351491	Upward Expansion	72	59
2026-01-09	0.223	0.1764	24.44	588149	Deceleration	76	45
2026-01-02	0.1993	0.1745	11.73	148693	Deceleration	45	27
2025-12-26	0.1898	0.1737	6.39	43775	Deceleration	41	28
2025-12-19	0.1898	0.1732	8.48	282730	Upward Expansion	45	33
2025-12-12	0.1946	0.1726	10.52	122002	Upward Expansion	58	44
2025-12-05	0.2041	0.1723	17.16	48058	Upward Expansion	68	71
2025-11-28	0.1946	0.1713	12.50	52146	Upward Expansion	62	79
2025-11-21	0.1993	0.1704	18.49	217622	Upward Expansion	62	81
2025-11-14	0.2088	0.1694	21.35	385059	Upward Expansion	78	85
2025-11-07	0.1993	0.1681	14.38	359490	Rotation Up	76	74
2025-10-31	0.2088	0.167	18.52	2584988	Rotation Up	40	42
2025-10-24	0.1519	0.1659	-14.98	122077	Balance	-64	53
2025-10-17	0.1613	0.1666	-9.86	98881	Balance	-32	13
2025-10-10	0.1566	0.1669	-12.36	67056	Balance	-41	23
2025-10-03	0.1661	0.1675	-7.57	79678	Balance	-15	11
2025-09-26	0.1708	0.1681	-3.03	39341	Downward Expansion	-18	11
2025-09-19	0.1708	0.1691	-3.03	566790	Downward Expansion	-36	28
2025-09-12	0.1519	0.1698	-14.74	214793	Downward Expansion	-68	61
2025-09-05	0.1566	0.1701	-12.45	224281	Balance	-59	47
2025-08-29	0.1613	0.1704	-11.16	4107	Balance	-48	24
2025-08-22	0.1661	0.1703	-8.66	237677	Balance	-27	16
2025-08-15	0.1566	0.1703	-14.56	182095	Balance	-44	20
2025-08-08	0.1708	0.1702	-6.49	30476	Balance	-23	15
2025-08-01	0.1756	0.1698	-3.25	215049	Rotation Down	-22	14
2025-07-25	0.1613	0.1692	-11.89	31886	Rotation Down	-52	38
2025-07-18	0.1613	0.1688	-13.62	2507	Rotation Down	-29	45
2025-07-11	0.1566	0.1686	-15.26	186890	Balance	-37	53
2025-07-04	0.1661	0.1685	-11.39	167689	Balance	-23	32
2025-06-27	0.1566	0.1683	-16.32	523464	Balance	-25	32
2025-06-20	0.1613	0.1681	-14.49	148119	Balance	-17	16
2025-06-13	0.1661	0.1685	-13.16	394482	Balance	10	6
2025-06-06	0.1756	0.1688	-8.62	123937	Balance	33	25
2025-05-30	0.1756	0.1687	-8.32	324217	Balance	34	25
2025-05-23	0.1708	0.1688	-10.69	564820	Balance	30	17
2025-05-16	0.1851	0.169	-3.57	248781	Balance	42	20
2025-05-09	0.1756	0.1685	-7.78	175943	Balance	20	9
2025-05-02	0.1661	0.1681	-13.27	315851	Balance	9	9
2025-04-25	0.1708	0.1684	-8.52	26501	Balance	26	14
2025-04-18	0.1708	0.1685	-7.59	417336	Balance	26	16
2025-04-11	0.1661	0.1682	-8.89	944271	Balance	22	16
2025-04-04	0.1756	0.1683	-4.73	358824	Balance	32	19
2025-03-28	0.1708	0.1683	-11.71	50815	Rotation Up	37	18
2025-03-21	0.1708	0.168	-11.84	231371	Rotation Up	54	48
2025-03-14	0.1756	0.1704	-8.28	202242	Rotation Up	31	54
2025-03-07	0.1851	0.1725	-5.84	242259	Rotation Up	30	53
2025-02-28	0.2008	0.1741	-0.60	656489	Balance	40	51
2025-02-21	0.1917	0.1753	-6.82	513304	Balance	11	16
2025-02-14	0.1598	0.1765	-25.83	74927	Balance	-31	15
2025-02-07	0.1643	0.179	-24.66	398478	Downward Expansion	-32	16
2025-01-31	0.1598	0.1818	-27.98	21332	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2025-01-24	0.1643	0.1841	-26.13	160849	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2025-01-17	0.1552	0.1862	-30.61	423948	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2025-01-10	0.1598	0.1885	-29.76	314304	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2025-01-03	0.1552	0.1907	-32.55	308483	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2024-12-27	0.1506	0.1929	-35.73	48848	Downward Expansion	-65	48
2024-12-20	0.1552	0.1955	-33.43	232518	Downward Expansion	-62	63
2024-12-13	0.1552	0.1972	-36.49	231691	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2024-12-06	0.1575	0.1996	-37.47	229311	Downward Expansion	-64	55
2024-11-29	0.1506	0.2014	-41.22	836211	Downward Expansion	-73	47
2024-11-22	0.1735	0.204	-33.22	387143	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2024-11-15	0.1757	0.2063	-32.56	280379	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2024-11-08	0.1735	0.2086	-34.54	333866	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2024-11-01	0.178	0.2111	-32.52	191524	Downward Expansion	-48	41
2024-10-25	0.178	0.2138	-34.34	676802	Downward Expansion	-51	47
2024-10-18	0.1689	0.2162	-39.83	394088	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2024-10-11	0.1643	0.2181	-42.75	86324	Downward Expansion	-71	77
2024-10-04	0.1735	0.2204	-40.59	203793	Downward Expansion	-65	82
2024-09-27	0.1735	0.2206	-42.40	241185	Downward Expansion	-65	86
2024-09-20	0.1643	0.2222	-46.60	203801	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2024-09-13	0.1689	0.2276	-45.69	407819	Downward Expansion	-75	84
2024-09-06	0.1735	0.2327	-44.94	534919	Downward Expansion	-75	75
2024-08-30	0.1622	0.2368	-50.23	1767265	Downward Expansion	-76	58
2024-08-23	0.2433	0.2423	-26.64	40558	Balance	-4	8
2024-08-16	0.2388	0.2451	-29.26	110549	Balance	-10	5
2024-08-09	0.2343	0.2483	-30.42	558151	Balance	-17	8
2024-08-02	0.2343	0.2514	-33.27	403312	Balance	-15	12
2024-07-26	0.2298	0.2544	-35.67	448513	Balance	-17	13
2024-07-19	0.2343	0.2584	-36.14	143121	Balance	-16	13
2024-07-12	0.2478	0.2627	-33.76	535264	Downward Expansion	-20	13
2024-07-05	0.2298	0.2649	-38.75	163394	Downward Expansion	-36	24
2024-06-28	0.2253	0.2675	-40.77	302786	Downward Expansion	-40	29
2024-06-21	0.2253	0.2712	-42.22	551883	Downward Expansion	-43	31
2024-06-14	0.2253	0.2747	-42.91	209478	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2024-06-07	0.2208	0.2782	-46.04	437808	Downward Expansion	-58	47
2024-05-31	0.2298	0.2824	-43.76	305652	Downward Expansion	-59	55
2024-05-24	0.2073	0.2862	-50.38	531838	Downward Expansion	-65	51
2024-05-17	0.2253	0.2944	-47.70	149792	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2024-05-10	0.2118	0.3043	-51.31	464195	Downward Expansion	-65	44
2024-05-03	0.2298	0.3127	-47.28	444126	Downward Expansion	-48	34
2024-04-26	0.2433	0.3202	-44.71	138111	Downward Expansion	-39	28
2024-04-19	0.2433	0.3269	-45.54	388057	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2024-04-12	0.2478	0.3347	-46.98	355099	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2024-04-05	0.2613	0.3431	-44.88	304779	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2024-03-29	0.2478	0.3515	-49.33	401767	Downward Expansion	-63	65
2024-03-22	0.2253	0.3615	-53.96	1969413	Downward Expansion	-64	81
2024-03-15	0.2343	0.3736	-52.32	5706381	Downward Expansion	-65	77
2024-03-08	0.1802	0.3846	-64.73	2830370	Downward Expansion	-90	86
2024-03-01	0.2208	0.3976	-56.97	2753636	Downward Expansion	-87	62
2024-02-23	0.3267	0.4088	-36.52	336164	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2024-02-16	0.3223	0.417	-38.29	319202	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2024-02-09	0.2958	0.4258	-43.99	1082476	Downward Expansion	-76	61
2024-02-02	0.3267	0.4356	-39.41	1212641	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2024-01-26	0.3267	0.4439	-38.97	209459	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2024-01-19	0.3356	0.453	-36.74	472288	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2024-01-12	0.3267	0.4619	-39.56	764023	Downward Expansion	-52	40
2024-01-05	0.3267	0.4703	-40.05	1342322	Downward Expansion	-53	44
2023-12-29	0.3488	0.4783	-37.45	140353	Downward Expansion	-52	51
2023-12-22	0.3621	0.4862	-34.88	606962	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2023-12-15	0.3135	0.4938	-43.61	621337	Downward Expansion	-71	71
2023-12-08	0.3091	0.503	-43.06	358847	Downward Expansion	-76	87
2023-12-01	0.3356	0.512	-37.72	285132	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2023-11-24	0.3312	0.5199	-38.74	211614	Downward Expansion	-74	90
2023-11-17	0.3312	0.5288	-39.28	190887	Downward Expansion	-82	92
2023-11-10	0.3444	0.538	-36.63	905089	Downward Expansion	-86	71
2023-11-03	0.3444	0.5468	-37.10	2068305	Downward Expansion	-90	66
2023-10-27	0.4548	0.5552	-15.75	59618	Downward Expansion	-72	54
2023-10-20	0.521	0.5604	-4.87	161168	Downward Expansion	-64	57

Price vs TrendAbove+18.0%

Trend directionRising+8.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+33.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+21.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+27.8%

Relative strength directionWeakening-4.7%

Price momentumPositive+55.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led4.98×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

59 / ±100

-18.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

45 /100

-9.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ASH Directional State ↗ ASH Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance17

Rotation Up55

Upward Expansion80

Deceleration63

Rotation Down21

Downward Expansion6

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 24%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 5%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 42%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-10-09	Established	+20.4%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-06-12	New	+15.9%
Rotation Down	2026-04-24	2026-05-15	New	+18.4%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-04-17	New	-17.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-16	2026-03-20	Developing	-1.4%
Deceleration	2025-12-26	2026-01-09	New	+17.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-14	2025-12-19	Developing	-9.1%
Rotation Up	2025-10-31	2025-11-07	New	-4.5%
Balance	2025-10-03	2025-10-24	New	-8.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-09-26	New	+12.5%
Balance	2025-08-08	2025-09-05	Developing	-8.3%
Rotation Down	2025-07-18	2025-08-01	New	+8.8%
Balance	2025-04-04	2025-07-11	Established	-10.8%
Rotation Up	2025-03-07	2025-03-28	New	-7.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing16

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution55

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: 27.77
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +55.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +58.0%
Industrials regime cohort: 32th percentile31 in cohort

Test ASH trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.09×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume4.98×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ASH Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.2987rising

Slow Activity AUD 0.2689rising

Trend Reference AUD 0.2499+18.0% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.2216+33.1% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.185shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.8%

Annualized volatility +49.3%

From structural high -10.9%

From structural low +94.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	23	+0.0%-19.1% to +20.7%	+47.8%	+47.8%	-0.1%	+73.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+6.4%-9.1% to +26.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+4.1%	+55.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+7.8%-7.9% to +34.4%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+7.8%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	2	+28.5%-9.6% to +66.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+30.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ASH Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map