Weekly structural research · KSC · Consumer Defensive

282330 Stage Analysis

BGF Retail Co., Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close KRW 132,900.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^KS11

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 36−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 21/100directional strength

Maturity 39/100lifecycle context

Confidence 71/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +16.5%KRW 114,057.29 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	132,900.00	131,613.33	-13.82	78684	Upward Expansion	36	21
2026-09-18	138,400.00	131,343.33	-8.78	317482	Upward Expansion	57	39
2026-09-11	145,000.00	131,159.90	-5.53	184776	Upward Expansion	61	54
2026-09-04	147,600.00	130,834.07	-1.49	336625	Upward Expansion	66	70
2026-08-28	147,000.00	129,871.88	-4.30	290102	Upward Expansion	67	73
2026-08-21	141,400.00	128,897.35	-10.67	51195	Upward Expansion	59	66
2026-08-14	145,200.00	127,973.69	-10.32	85341	Rotation Up	66	62
2026-08-07	153,100.00	126,858.68	4.14	218092	Rotation Up	73	42
2026-07-31	125,000.00	125,098.79	-20.11	154791	Balance	-5	5
2026-07-24	123,400.00	124,301.44	-23.24	74188	Balance	2	3
2026-07-17	126,400.00	123,670.59	-23.89	203104	Deceleration	-10	12
2026-07-10	123,600.00	123,056.14	-33.07	48443	Deceleration	-14	27
2026-07-03	124,300.00	122,496.23	-38.76	79578	Deceleration	-15	24
2026-06-26	115,700.00	121,938.85	-46.14	53098	Balance	-24	26
2026-06-19	114,700.00	121,584.07	-51.27	112808	Balance	-6	15
2026-06-12	129,300.00	121,398.43	-40.00	118210	Upward Expansion	28	18
2026-06-05	129,400.00	120,645.28	-41.17	56547	Upward Expansion	32	16
2026-05-29	124,200.00	119,788.56	-46.50	210654	Upward Expansion	35	22
2026-05-22	130,400.00	118,998.47	-40.26	307425	Upward Expansion	54	35
2026-05-15	140,700.00	117,988.78	-33.46	439858	Upward Expansion	66	44
2026-05-08	138,600.00	116,697.20	-35.29	348120	Upward Expansion	65	43
2026-05-01	132,000.00	115,478.84	-30.89	260792	Upward Expansion	58	41
2026-04-24	134,500.00	114,616.30	-29.20	206723	Upward Expansion	64	54
2026-04-17	133,500.00	113,583.11	-27.43	270454	Upward Expansion	64	54
2026-04-10	131,100.00	112,664.10	-25.62	282134	Upward Expansion	61	46
2026-04-03	133,900.00	111,815.38	-18.21	395449	Deceleration	69	45
2026-03-27	130,300.00	110,931.54	-22.18	224875	Deceleration	57	32
2026-03-20	124,200.00	110,381.10	-30.97	236871	Upward Expansion	47	27
2026-03-13	117,600.00	110,076.04	-31.97	245660	Upward Expansion	56	39
2026-03-06	115,000.00	110,003.91	-35.35	300288	Upward Expansion	64	60
2026-02-27	124,800.00	110,089.58	-37.94	281519	Upward Expansion	67	86
2026-02-20	132,897.00	109,551.11	-29.72	139301	Upward Expansion	87	94
2026-02-13	135,225.12	108,865.60	-25.22	637842	Rotation Up	93	94
2026-02-06	118,734.26	108,270.64	-29.49	326120	Rotation Up	48	68
2026-01-30	117,764.20	108,212.44	-32.46	272260	Balance	47	55
2026-01-23	113,689.99	108,205.97	-32.35	275905	Balance	10	15
2026-01-16	111,749.89	108,267.40	-32.04	373369	Balance	-10	12
2026-01-09	100,303.28	108,584.29	-36.18	221098	Balance	-55	52
2026-01-02	101,079.33	108,920.57	-32.16	78988	Balance	-51	29
2025-12-26	104,474.51	109,156.62	-27.48	92172	Balance	-20	13
2025-12-19	107,966.69	108,988.48	-23.63	150738	Balance	-7	11
2025-12-12	106,802.62	108,629.56	-27.70	133178	Downward Expansion	-21	20
2025-12-05	107,578.67	108,286.81	-26.49	118734	Downward Expansion	-22	24
2025-11-28	105,056.54	107,982.86	-25.54	175779	Downward Expansion	-30	24
2025-11-21	109,130.75	107,931.12	-21.78	221270	Downward Expansion	-28	19
2025-11-14	106,705.62	107,698.31	-27.00	263421	Rotation Down	-48	35
2025-11-07	103,698.46	107,536.63	-28.53	286496	Rotation Down	-34	50
2025-10-31	100,497.30	107,420.23	-33.80	215807	Rotation Down	-40	58
2025-10-24	100,109.27	107,578.67	-31.90	350509	Rotation Down	-44	57
2025-10-17	101,952.38	107,766.21	-27.62	225097	Rotation Down	-31	51
2025-10-10	102,049.38	108,015.19	-25.28	73139	Rotation Down	-33	54
2025-10-03	106,123.59	107,986.09	-21.43	175627	Rotation Down	-22	47
2025-09-26	103,504.45	107,785.61	-20.08	233822	Deceleration	-28	43
2025-09-19	105,929.58	107,565.73	-20.04	155730	Deceleration	0	17
2025-09-12	105,638.56	107,349.79	-19.57	208483	Deceleration	3	10
2025-09-05	107,384.66	107,081.41	-13.88	318500	Deceleration	25	12
2025-08-29	113,786.99	106,711.33	-8.65	170875	Deceleration	41	26
2025-08-22	115,048.06	106,137.16	-7.38	115709	Deceleration	42	25
2025-08-15	115,436.09	105,517.85	-8.82	128095	Deceleration	43	24
2025-08-08	117,570.20	104,904.24	-6.80	253123	Upward Expansion	52	30
2025-08-01	108,645.73	104,157.36	-11.54	262104	Upward Expansion	44	28
2025-07-25	112,331.92	103,754.56	-10.90	211124	Upward Expansion	60	43
2025-07-18	117,376.19	103,197.83	-6.68	246354	Upward Expansion	65	62
2025-07-11	116,988.16	102,628.29	-6.56	253454	Upward Expansion	67	77
2025-07-04	117,570.20	101,931.88	-2.22	286228	Upward Expansion	70	80
2025-06-27	115,533.09	101,135.29	-3.69	303869	Upward Expansion	67	77
2025-06-20	121,256.39	100,645.83	2.40	325949	Balance	81	77
2025-06-13	110,391.81	99,959.39	-2.52	641440	Balance	61	45
2025-06-06	108,160.70	99,513.92	-1.72	301437	Balance	47	18
2025-05-30	99,430.24	99,319.92	-5.88	218710	Balance	-11	18
2025-05-23	97,199.12	99,547.42	-4.44	208919	Balance	-15	17
2025-05-16	96,520.09	99,749.88	-6.52	244286	Balance	-7	11
2025-05-09	98,460.19	100,009.14	-3.02	417228	Balance	21	13
2025-05-02	103,504.45	100,206.84	2.28	119779	Balance	37	19
2025-04-25	102,146.38	100,189.80	1.19	160934	Balance	36	18
2025-04-18	101,855.37	100,410.65	3.21	130309	Rotation Up	24	19
2025-04-11	100,206.28	100,712.66	3.39	294295	Rotation Up	30	45
2025-04-04	105,250.55	101,038.57	7.19	339154	Rotation Up	32	56
2025-03-28	105,735.57	101,202.55	3.91	123726	Rotation Up	31	56
2025-03-21	109,421.77	101,344.15	4.14	261765	Balance	43	52
2025-03-14	101,176.33	101,198.22	-0.77	209865	Balance	-3	11
2025-03-07	100,109.27	101,274.31	-1.84	182825	Balance	-12	10
2025-02-28	96,908.11	101,429.47	-4.04	256699	Downward Expansion	-32	15
2025-02-21	99,451.27	101,666.48	-6.41	308392	Downward Expansion	-31	15
2025-02-14	97,587.15	101,579.49	-6.31	271462	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2025-02-07	96,282.26	101,607.45	-5.43	118559	Downward Expansion	-50	27
2025-01-31	96,561.88	101,626.09	-5.40	24009	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2025-01-24	96,468.66	101,511.14	-6.71	155976	Downward Expansion	-51	31
2025-01-17	97,027.91	101,504.92	-6.43	230603	Downward Expansion	-54	34
2025-01-10	95,163.77	101,678.91	-8.63	173463	Downward Expansion	-59	35
2025-01-03	96,561.88	102,079.70	-5.11	69191	Downward Expansion	-55	34
2024-12-27	95,629.80	102,461.84	-5.02	183101	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2024-12-20	100,290.13	102,893.70	-0.66	309130	Downward Expansion	-55	40
2024-12-13	96,095.84	103,213.71	-8.43	342496	Downward Expansion	-62	56
2024-12-06	93,672.47	103,741.88	-8.67	301590	Downward Expansion	-70	63
2024-11-29	100,849.37	104,770.25	-3.25	181052	Downward Expansion	-44	44
2024-11-22	100,662.96	105,531.44	-5.53	92044	Balance	-45	39
2024-11-15	97,027.91	106,152.82	-6.07	162492	Balance	-59	43
2024-11-08	102,340.67	106,923.32	-6.88	161639	Balance	-44	23
2024-11-01	106,255.34	107,137.70	-3.23	67864	Balance	-33	20
2024-10-25	103,272.74	107,230.90	-7.98	121529	Balance	-40	27
2024-10-18	104,298.01	107,445.28	-8.03	109857	Balance	-34	22
2024-10-11	104,391.22	107,653.44	-8.46	105118	Balance	-26	15
2024-10-04	102,993.12	107,936.17	-9.17	82990	Rotation Up	-24	16
2024-09-27	108,771.91	108,383.56	-7.45	276767	Rotation Up	19	34
2024-09-20	110,915.67	108,862.02	-4.02	143060	Balance	24	30
2024-09-13	109,983.60	109,287.66	-4.52	192593	Balance	2	20
2024-09-06	110,170.02	109,725.73	-3.63	237741	Balance	2	17
2024-08-30	109,983.60	110,188.65	-8.90	171361	Downward Expansion	-9	18
2024-08-23	105,043.66	110,850.42	-14.39	137690	Downward Expansion	-30	25
2024-08-16	103,459.15	111,888.12	-16.21	114816	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2024-08-09	104,764.04	112,938.25	-12.30	370885	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2024-08-02	104,018.39	113,823.71	-16.40	359839	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2024-07-26	96,841.49	114,631.50	-24.38	193866	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2024-07-19	98,426.00	115,482.78	-25.55	262186	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2024-07-12	96,841.49	116,175.25	-28.99	269298	Downward Expansion	-69	82
2024-07-05	93,113.24	116,989.82	-32.55	401208	Downward Expansion	-85	89
2024-06-28	96,282.26	118,013.01	-29.41	305252	Downward Expansion	-86	87
2024-06-21	102,247.47	118,927.56	-25.47	262177	Downward Expansion	-80	82
2024-06-14	107,187.41	119,468.54	-21.95	195534	Downward Expansion	-67	75
2024-06-07	108,026.27	119,917.16	-21.15	173329	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2024-05-31	108,585.50	120,693.28	-18.90	153410	Downward Expansion	-65	45
2024-05-24	109,890.39	121,429.67	-20.18	209890	Downward Expansion	-60	26
2024-05-17	111,940.94	121,941.82	-20.50	266981	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2024-05-10	124,523.80	122,177.77	-12.43	213202	Downward Expansion	-8	26
2024-05-03	123,684.95	122,232.27	-12.01	283876	Downward Expansion	-19	21
2024-04-26	119,304.24	122,269.54	-15.16	276372	Downward Expansion	-45	30
2024-04-19	120,143.10	122,540.19	-13.15	567018	Downward Expansion	-62	48
2024-04-12	108,771.91	122,843.13	-24.52	264402	Downward Expansion	-72	85
2024-04-05	109,051.53	123,835.38	-25.85	309518	Downward Expansion	-74	85
2024-03-29	109,703.98	124,827.35	-26.97	333081	Downward Expansion	-78	85
2024-03-22	110,542.84	125,878.91	-27.14	332643	Downward Expansion	-81	82
2024-03-15	112,873.00	127,044.09	-24.05	516055	Downward Expansion	-81	76
2024-03-08	116,414.84	128,107.50	-22.69	383058	Balance	-75	64
2024-03-01	123,125.71	129,269.73	-17.75	162199	Balance	-45	36
2024-02-23	123,684.95	130,268.52	-18.73	315910	Balance	-41	29
2024-02-16	123,125.71	131,092.02	-19.10	186014	Balance	-37	17
2024-02-09	124,057.77	132,054.66	-18.16	288810	Balance	-15	17
2024-02-02	129,836.58	133,142.88	-14.78	234287	Balance	-1	20
2024-01-26	136,174.61	133,839.65	-6.30	231080	Balance	8	24
2024-01-19	134,962.94	134,569.16	-7.28	305865	Balance	2	14
2024-01-12	131,327.88	135,486.66	-12.17	389698	Downward Expansion	-24	13
2024-01-05	128,252.06	136,950.08	-16.56	281119	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2023-12-29	122,380.05	138,281.05	-23.34	298282	Downward Expansion	-54	38
2023-12-22	119,200.05	139,765.59	-24.67	318187	Downward Expansion	-62	42
2023-12-15	121,278.59	141,298.90	-23.08	320806	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2023-12-08	123,809.00	142,726.77	-20.80	317930	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2023-12-01	123,718.62	144,010.04	-21.11	1610899	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2023-11-24	118,477.07	145,579.49	-24.70	240606	Downward Expansion	-71	49
2023-11-17	120,645.99	147,251.37	-23.13	258251	Downward Expansion	-71	47
2023-11-10	131,309.83	148,745.51	-14.81	199289	Downward Expansion	-50	45
2023-11-03	130,677.24	149,860.09	-13.97	234528	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2023-10-27	125,254.94	151,040.95	-15.59	275674	Downward Expansion	-67	76
2023-10-20	119,019.30	152,339.28	-22.63	315941	Downward Expansion	-82	90
2023-10-13	126,158.66	153,806.32	-21.24	231753	Downward Expansion	-72	87
2023-10-06	124,803.07	154,863.66	-20.97	196619	Downward Expansion	-80	90

Price vs TrendAbove+1.0%

Trend directionRising+6.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+16.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+15.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-13.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+32.3%

Price momentumPositive+2.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.53×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

36 / ±100

-31.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

21 /100

-52.1 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

282330 Directional State ↗ 282330 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance33

Rotation Up35

Upward Expansion64

Deceleration84

Rotation Down26

Downward Expansion16

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 26%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 18%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 37%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-09-25	Developing	-6.0%
Rotation Up	2026-08-07	2026-08-14	New	-5.2%
Balance	2026-07-24	2026-07-31	New	+1.3%
Deceleration	2026-07-03	2026-07-17	New	+1.7%
Balance	2026-06-19	2026-06-26	New	+0.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-10	2026-06-12	Developing	-1.4%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-04-03	New	+2.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-03-20	Developing	-6.5%
Rotation Up	2026-02-06	2026-02-13	New	+13.9%
Balance	2025-12-19	2026-01-30	Developing	+9.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-21	2025-12-12	New	-2.1%
Rotation Down	2025-10-03	2025-11-14	Developing	+0.5%
Deceleration	2025-08-15	2025-09-26	Developing	-10.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-27	2025-08-08	Developing	+1.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing48

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution44

Stage 4 · Declining38

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^KS11

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 25/100
Current Relative Strength: -13.82
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +2.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -28.2%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 15th percentile13 in cohort

Test 282330 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.46×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.53×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 282330 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity KRW 139,686.67falling

Slow Activity KRW 134,255.91rising

Trend Reference KRW 131,613.33+1.0% close margin

Current Fair Value KRW 114,057.29+16.5% close margin

Structural low KRW 111,000.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.7%

Annualized volatility +41.3%

From structural high -14.8%

From structural low +35.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^KS11	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	-2.7%-8.1% to +7.5%	+38.5%	+38.5%	-3.7%	+69.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-1.9%-13.7% to +8.4%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-15.2%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-5.1%-9.6% to +6.4%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-14.0%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+2.6%+0.1% to +5.0%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-81.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

282330 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map