Weekly structural research · JPX · Consumer Cyclical

7678 Stage Analysis

Asakuma Co.,Ltd

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close JPY 3,740.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction 78−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 91/100directional strength

Maturity 25/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance +100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +81.1%JPY 2,064.66 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	3,740.00	3,080.58	16.90	49700	Upward Expansion	78	91
2026-09-25	3,720.00	3,034.25	20.08	51500	Upward Expansion	83	90
2026-09-18	3,840.00	2,989.25	27.02	99900	Upward Expansion	91	87
2026-09-11	3,355.00	2,939.58	13.32	96300	Upward Expansion	69	56
2026-09-04	3,260.00	2,907.92	8.65	42200	Deceleration	59	34
2026-08-28	3,220.00	2,878.42	5.10	5600	Deceleration	44	24
2026-08-21	3,035.00	2,849.00	-0.39	8600	Deceleration	30	19
2026-08-14	3,125.00	2,829.00	-1.62	6600	Deceleration	35	18
2026-08-07	3,145.00	2,805.92	3.55	28800	Upward Expansion	40	24
2026-07-31	2,990.00	2,780.75	0.24	355800	Upward Expansion	54	35
2026-07-24	3,165.00	2,762.17	5.46	103400	Upward Expansion	60	51
2026-07-17	3,300.00	2,735.50	10.63	106400	Upward Expansion	67	56
2026-07-10	3,300.00	2,705.50	3.37	106200	Deceleration	69	45
2026-07-03	3,240.00	2,674.17	-0.53	150000	Deceleration	57	36
2026-06-26	3,090.00	2,641.33	-4.95	101400	Upward Expansion	48	34
2026-06-19	2,945.00	2,614.25	-12.17	120600	Upward Expansion	60	46
2026-06-12	2,995.00	2,590.42	-4.20	111400	Upward Expansion	65	57
2026-06-05	3,230.00	2,564.67	1.94	85400	Upward Expansion	70	76
2026-05-29	3,385.00	2,529.83	6.91	119600	Upward Expansion	87	85
2026-05-22	3,145.00	2,489.00	3.83	227000	Upward Expansion	82	71
2026-05-15	3,085.00	2,456.42	4.75	110200	Upward Expansion	87	68
2026-05-08	2,890.00	2,425.25	-4.10	36600	Upward Expansion	79	64
2026-05-01	2,760.00	2,400.00	-3.89	44800	Upward Expansion	67	62
2026-04-24	2,715.00	2,379.33	-6.13	122000	Upward Expansion	66	76
2026-04-17	2,810.00	2,359.17	-1.24	154200	Upward Expansion	80	90
2026-04-10	2,745.00	2,335.08	-1.26	78600	Upward Expansion	82	90
2026-04-03	2,690.00	2,313.33	3.25	149000	Upward Expansion	83	84
2026-03-27	2,710.00	2,295.17	3.30	144200	Deceleration	86	72
2026-03-20	2,427.50	2,274.92	-7.59	46200	Deceleration	59	31
2026-03-13	2,360.00	2,264.92	-11.17	93000	Deceleration	33	17
2026-03-06	2,350.00	2,256.83	-14.74	67400	Deceleration	36	22
2026-02-27	2,370.00	2,249.25	-19.05	38400	Deceleration	40	27
2026-02-20	2,350.00	2,240.58	-17.22	84200	Deceleration	42	27
2026-02-13	2,405.00	2,234.17	-15.69	71800	Upward Expansion	52	41
2026-02-06	2,375.00	2,226.50	-12.90	65400	Upward Expansion	50	45
2026-01-30	2,337.50	2,220.25	-13.06	594200	Upward Expansion	63	56
2026-01-23	2,435.00	2,215.33	-10.57	71600	Upward Expansion	74	69
2026-01-16	2,432.50	2,207.08	-11.08	64400	Upward Expansion	77	70
2026-01-09	2,390.00	2,198.42	-9.58	125200	Upward Expansion	68	71
2026-01-02	2,432.50	2,191.00	-5.33	39200	Upward Expansion	89	95
2025-12-26	2,365.00	2,180.75	-8.99	68200	Upward Expansion	76	90
2025-12-19	2,400.00	2,172.33	-5.60	44800	Upward Expansion	96	98
2025-12-12	2,360.00	2,162.75	-9.76	67400	Upward Expansion	97	98
2025-12-05	2,255.00	2,153.42	-13.35	28200	Upward Expansion	74	89
2025-11-28	2,277.50	2,148.75	-12.26	29800	Upward Expansion	91	93
2025-11-21	2,230.00	2,141.50	-11.39	22800	Upward Expansion	81	82
2025-11-14	2,222.50	2,135.08	-14.91	35000	Upward Expansion	84	79
2025-11-07	2,185.00	2,127.42	-16.36	29400	Upward Expansion	73	67
2025-10-31	2,160.00	2,120.42	-20.86	14800	Deceleration	59	49
2025-10-24	2,167.50	2,112.08	-15.88	16200	Deceleration	53	36
2025-10-17	2,150.00	2,106.67	-13.73	11800	Deceleration	42	26
2025-10-10	2,132.50	2,101.67	-15.48	24400	Deceleration	28	13
2025-10-03	2,140.00	2,097.08	-10.99	30200	Deceleration	25	18
2025-09-26	2,110.00	2,089.92	-11.49	30600	Deceleration	5	14
2025-09-19	2,087.50	2,083.08	-11.81	29200	Deceleration	-6	17
2025-09-12	2,092.50	2,076.08	-11.09	125400	Deceleration	-3	11
2025-09-05	2,145.00	2,072.58	-5.18	29800	Deceleration	20	16
2025-08-29	2,102.50	2,068.75	-6.30	43400	Deceleration	7	18
2025-08-22	2,127.50	2,066.17	-4.92	44400	Deceleration	26	30
2025-08-15	2,117.50	2,066.08	-6.97	48600	Deceleration	31	32
2025-08-08	2,122.50	2,064.83	-3.23	77000	Deceleration	39	30
2025-08-01	2,110.00	2,064.58	-1.43	365200	Upward Expansion	47	39
2025-07-25	2,157.50	2,069.75	-0.63	113000	Upward Expansion	64	80
2025-07-18	2,175.00	2,070.83	4.28	89400	Upward Expansion	67	85
2025-07-11	2,187.50	2,066.75	5.71	74400	Upward Expansion	71	88
2025-07-04	2,190.00	2,061.58	5.43	83400	Upward Expansion	73	85
2025-06-27	2,187.50	2,054.58	4.72	38200	Upward Expansion	74	76
2025-06-20	2,172.50	2,045.92	8.86	23200	Upward Expansion	73	73
2025-06-13	2,167.50	2,038.17	10.60	71000	Upward Expansion	76	71
2025-06-06	2,125.00	2,030.58	9.25	12600	Upward Expansion	67	64
2025-05-30	2,112.50	2,024.75	8.55	13600	Upward Expansion	57	64
2025-05-23	2,112.50	2,019.00	11.53	15000	Upward Expansion	57	62
2025-05-16	2,080.00	2,011.50	8.80	23600	Upward Expansion	48	50
2025-05-09	2,115.00	2,007.08	12.17	32400	Balance	54	45
2025-05-02	2,060.00	1,999.25	12.12	24400	Balance	16	15
2025-04-25	2,037.50	1,993.17	15.23	30600	Balance	6	4
2025-04-18	1,992.50	1,985.75	16.82	16800	Balance	-6	6
2025-04-11	1,975.00	1,979.33	20.80	55200	Balance	-8	6
2025-04-04	1,910.00	1,971.33	17.50	51800	Balance	-10	7
2025-03-28	2,005.00	1,964.42	13.54	34000	Deceleration	19	11
2025-03-21	2,000.00	1,958.08	12.77	39400	Deceleration	4	11
2025-03-14	1,995.00	1,954.50	15.56	56600	Deceleration	-19	26
2025-03-07	1,925.00	1,948.42	13.13	22800	Deceleration	-21	30
2025-02-28	1,905.00	1,944.42	12.18	34600	Deceleration	-24	31
2025-02-21	1,877.50	1,937.17	6.94	66000	Deceleration	-3	21
2025-02-14	1,987.50	1,940.50	13.05	29000	Deceleration	25	22
2025-02-07	2,030.00	1,941.42	17.65	111200	Deceleration	36	23
2025-01-31	2,025.00	1,941.00	16.05	359400	Upward Expansion	44	31
2025-01-24	2,125.00	1,937.83	21.62	127400	Upward Expansion	63	58
2025-01-17	2,080.00	1,934.67	24.51	114600	Upward Expansion	66	77
2025-01-10	2,115.00	1,926.83	25.18	157400	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-01-03	2,265.00	1,913.00	32.91	33000	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-12-27	2,190.00	1,891.42	28.64	102800	Upward Expansion	93	93
2024-12-20	2,052.50	1,870.67	26.81	46600	Upward Expansion	81	81
2024-12-13	2,032.50	1,853.00	24.47	88200	Upward Expansion	80	68
2024-12-06	1,980.00	1,832.35	23.66	44400	Upward Expansion	69	46
2024-11-29	1,927.50	1,812.20	24.30	23000	Upward Expansion	58	46
2024-11-22	1,940.00	1,795.23	26.09	28200	Upward Expansion	61	55
2024-11-15	1,940.00	1,775.70	26.28	18800	Upward Expansion	61	54
2024-11-08	1,950.00	1,754.32	25.54	32400	Upward Expansion	66	64
2024-11-01	1,940.00	1,728.28	31.05	31800	Upward Expansion	61	55
2024-10-25	1,887.50	1,700.02	29.46	40600	Upward Expansion	53	42
2024-10-18	1,947.50	1,674.85	31.32	44600	Deceleration	54	44
2024-10-11	1,880.00	1,648.35	26.20	28800	Deceleration	45	31
2024-10-04	1,877.50	1,624.05	30.55	80200	Deceleration	41	23
2024-09-27	1,815.00	1,601.30	23.75	30200	Deceleration	19	14
2024-09-20	1,800.00	1,579.48	30.84	52400	Deceleration	19	15
2024-09-13	1,735.00	1,557.45	31.55	140200	Deceleration	22	14
2024-09-06	1,702.50	1,536.60	31.31	73000	Deceleration	35	21
2024-08-30	1,815.00	1,519.35	33.30	68200	Deceleration	40	28
2024-08-23	1,892.50	1,499.08	41.68	106000	Deceleration	43	29
2024-08-16	1,812.50	1,480.37	38.55	56000	Deceleration	42	31
2024-08-09	1,805.00	1,464.02	51.78	221400	Upward Expansion	49	44
2024-08-02	1,687.50	1,443.37	40.51	420800	Upward Expansion	65	62
2024-07-26	1,977.50	1,424.15	58.96	280800	Upward Expansion	68	73
2024-07-19	2,015.00	1,393.15	54.78	170200	Upward Expansion	75	90
2024-07-12	2,017.50	1,358.67	53.01	230200	Upward Expansion	82	90
2024-07-05	1,930.00	1,324.50	49.53	268800	Upward Expansion	78	90
2024-06-28	2,030.00	1,293.85	64.79	240800	Upward Expansion	96	98
2024-06-21	1,845.00	1,259.35	56.21	158800	Upward Expansion	94	96
2024-06-14	1,700.00	1,229.48	45.27	226400	Upward Expansion	90	95
2024-06-07	1,617.50	1,203.82	40.49	97600	Upward Expansion	87	93
2024-05-31	1,567.50	1,179.73	38.37	100800	Upward Expansion	88	93
2024-05-24	1,522.50	1,156.95	35.22	79200	Upward Expansion	89	95
2024-05-17	1,413.00	1,135.53	26.18	46400	Upward Expansion	76	91
2024-05-10	1,375.50	1,117.28	25.51	72800	Upward Expansion	71	87
2024-05-03	1,418.50	1,100.63	30.20	117000	Upward Expansion	86	90
2024-04-26	1,354.00	1,082.05	26.11	205400	Upward Expansion	78	71
2024-04-19	1,298.50	1,065.75	24.46	573000	Deceleration	69	37
2024-04-12	1,169.00	1,050.65	5.61	57400	Deceleration	24	13
2024-04-05	1,092.00	1,040.02	0.13	49200	Deceleration	14	12
2024-03-29	1,132.50	1,031.95	0.24	50400	Deceleration	35	21
2024-03-22	1,152.50	1,022.05	0.69	19800	Deceleration	38	25
2024-03-15	1,151.00	1,011.07	6.10	121800	Deceleration	39	25
2024-03-08	1,195.00	999.92	7.43	48600	Deceleration	41	25
2024-03-01	1,160.50	987.25	3.82	56000	Deceleration	39	25
2024-02-23	1,139.00	975.65	4.02	45400	Upward Expansion	43	31
2024-02-16	1,109.50	964.80	2.92	89000	Upward Expansion	61	52
2024-02-09	1,185.00	954.90	14.64	162400	Upward Expansion	66	66
2024-02-02	1,207.00	942.37	19.42	687200	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-01-26	1,331.00	929.05	33.55	709400	Upward Expansion	90	96
2024-01-19	1,322.00	911.48	32.60	579200	Upward Expansion	96	95
2024-01-12	1,185.50	894.00	20.76	186000	Upward Expansion	95	82
2024-01-05	1,111.00	881.03	20.87	78800	Upward Expansion	93	76
2023-12-29	1,047.50	870.58	13.90	63000	Upward Expansion	87	73
2023-12-22	980.50	862.15	7.64	63800	Upward Expansion	68	68
2023-12-15	992.50	855.97	9.59	69200	Upward Expansion	73	79
2023-12-08	1,010.50	849.38	14.01	81000	Upward Expansion	92	95
2023-12-01	995.00	842.12	8.74	49200	Upward Expansion	96	95
2023-11-24	949.00	835.35	3.24	48200	Upward Expansion	91	80
2023-11-17	930.00	830.22	1.37	35800	Upward Expansion	94	79
2023-11-10	895.00	825.60	0.61	20800	Upward Expansion	83	72
2023-11-03	884.00	822.12	1.32	16400	Upward Expansion	79	70
2023-10-27	880.00	819.10	3.94	13400	Upward Expansion	81	71
2023-10-20	865.50	816.30	1.35	19200	Upward Expansion	68	67
2023-10-13	876.00	814.77	-0.83	16000	Upward Expansion	89	75

Price vs TrendAbove+21.4%

Trend directionRising+11.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+81.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+6.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+16.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+17.4%

Price momentumPositive+39.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.82×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

78 / ±100

+19.0 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

91 /100

+57.6 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

7678 Directional State ↗ 7678 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance6

Rotation Up86

Upward Expansion100

Deceleration39

Rotation Down8

Downward Expansion22

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 4%Upward Expansion 64%Deceleration 33%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-11	2026-10-02	New	+11.5%
Deceleration	2026-08-14	2026-09-04	New	+4.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-17	2026-08-07	New	-4.7%
Deceleration	2026-07-03	2026-07-10	New	+1.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-03	2026-06-26	Established	+14.9%
Deceleration	2026-02-20	2026-03-27	Developing	+15.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-07	2026-02-13	Established	+10.1%
Deceleration	2025-08-08	2025-10-31	Established	+1.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-08-01	Developing	+1.4%
Balance	2025-04-04	2025-05-09	Developing	+10.7%
Deceleration	2025-02-07	2025-03-28	Developing	-1.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-25	2025-01-31	Established	+7.3%
Deceleration	2024-08-16	2024-10-18	Developing	+7.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-04-26	2024-08-09	Established	+33.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing17

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution54

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 80/100
Current Relative Strength: 16.90
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +39.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +10.4%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 89th percentile151 in cohort

Test 7678 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.50×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.82×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 7678 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 3,671.33rising

Slow Activity JPY 3,243.02rising

Trend Reference JPY 3,080.58+21.4% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 2,064.66+81.1% close margin

Structural low JPY 2,660.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.1%

Annualized volatility +33.4%

From structural high -4.0%

From structural low +76.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	37	+1.5%-10.0% to +22.6%	+73.0%	+73.0%	+1.7%	+78.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	14	+6.7%-4.6% to +51.2%	+71.4%	+71.4%	+4.1%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	+10.2%-2.5% to +63.6%	+87.5%	+87.5%	-0.4%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+32.5%+3.2% to +67.8%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+10.5%	+100.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

7678 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map