Weekly structural research · JPX · Basic Materials

1515 Stage Analysis

Nittetsu Mining Co., Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 3,245.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 45−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 35/100directional strength

Maturity 62/100lifecycle context

Confidence 89/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +104.9%JPY 1,583.92 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	3,245.00	2,819.05	7.06	880600	Upward Expansion	45	35
2026-09-18	3,485.00	2,847.85	17.89	2630100	Upward Expansion	62	55
2026-09-11	3,340.00	2,851.64	15.65	3316700	Rotation Up	65	72
2026-09-04	3,360.00	2,880.55	15.34	6426200	Rotation Up	41	77
2026-08-28	3,985.00	2,897.83	34.62	3891200	Rotation Up	68	88
2026-08-21	3,625.00	2,883.80	24.33	600200	Rotation Up	62	85
2026-08-14	3,365.00	2,866.39	11.76	673400	Rotation Up	47	71
2026-08-07	3,175.00	2,854.38	11.11	846200	Balance	41	53
2026-07-31	3,025.00	2,834.42	8.51	838100	Balance	17	28
2026-07-24	2,780.00	2,806.81	-0.16	383500	Downward Expansion	-4	13
2026-07-17	2,637.00	2,787.62	-4.34	970900	Downward Expansion	-37	23
2026-07-10	2,417.00	2,765.83	-17.78	391800	Downward Expansion	-51	32
2026-07-03	2,463.00	2,756.68	-17.68	457800	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2026-06-26	2,285.00	2,738.53	-23.23	599900	Downward Expansion	-66	50
2026-06-19	2,566.00	2,722.09	-16.21	584800	Downward Expansion	-29	35
2026-06-12	2,330.00	2,690.96	-17.95	1019100	Downward Expansion	-37	51
2026-06-05	2,414.00	2,665.56	-15.82	458200	Deceleration	-31	37
2026-05-29	2,397.00	2,640.66	-16.16	4245200	Deceleration	-31	26
2026-05-22	2,358.00	2,616.11	-13.62	5416600	Deceleration	-25	28
2026-05-15	2,608.00	2,595.90	-1.44	7609500	Deceleration	-17	24
2026-05-08	2,515.00	2,565.91	-6.68	1555100	Deceleration	-19	29
2026-05-01	2,422.00	2,537.69	-5.01	3213100	Deceleration	-24	31
2026-04-24	2,451.00	2,514.49	-3.86	3541000	Deceleration	-6	19
2026-04-17	2,722.00	2,490.48	9.41	5239100	Deceleration	3	20
2026-04-10	2,645.00	2,453.11	9.77	3728500	Deceleration	3	23
2026-04-03	2,603.00	2,418.36	16.47	4102100	Deceleration	12	26
2026-03-27	2,600.00	2,388.70	16.56	4635500	Deceleration	16	28
2026-03-20	2,648.11	2,356.95	19.45	4170700	Deceleration	32	24
2026-03-13	2,928.93	2,321.07	31.88	8398500	Upward Expansion	47	38
2026-03-06	3,176.36	2,274.67	39.82	10160000	Upward Expansion	64	60
2026-02-27	4,109.14	2,218.72	73.12	7678300	Upward Expansion	78	71
2026-02-20	3,598.56	2,130.07	60.06	7140100	Upward Expansion	68	68
2026-02-13	4,207.33	2,061.29	90.04	10455800	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-02-06	3,878.40	1,968.59	88.29	10541700	Upward Expansion	94	98
2026-01-30	3,564.20	1,887.50	80.18	13251900	Upward Expansion	96	98
2026-01-23	3,102.72	1,816.43	58.95	5222300	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-01-16	3,004.53	1,761.91	56.64	7175200	Upward Expansion	97	98
2026-01-09	2,576.44	1,709.82	42.06	6398000	Upward Expansion	94	95
2026-01-02	2,196.45	1,672.00	26.90	1304100	Upward Expansion	78	89
2025-12-26	2,204.31	1,646.79	27.92	2458500	Upward Expansion	83	87
2025-12-19	1,983.38	1,618.60	19.50	1893200	Upward Expansion	65	77
2025-12-12	2,142.45	1,598.03	27.10	2487200	Upward Expansion	85	81
2025-12-05	1,918.58	1,572.48	16.08	1314100	Upward Expansion	70	44
2025-11-28	1,791.92	1,550.32	10.08	914400	Upward Expansion	50	23
2025-11-21	1,631.87	1,530.97	4.52	1299600	Upward Expansion	30	17
2025-11-14	1,568.05	1,516.30	-2.33	2292100	Upward Expansion	29	16
2025-11-07	1,667.22	1,504.80	4.71	1701600	Upward Expansion	43	30
2025-10-31	1,660.35	1,486.30	0.73	1981000	Upward Expansion	56	38
2025-10-24	1,751.66	1,469.85	13.68	970800	Upward Expansion	66	49
2025-10-17	1,708.46	1,455.19	15.89	903000	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-10-10	1,668.20	1,442.90	12.95	1708300	Upward Expansion	59	47
2025-10-03	1,726.13	1,427.44	23.82	2096700	Upward Expansion	71	55
2025-09-26	1,730.65	1,407.33	26.54	1208000	Upward Expansion	80	64
2025-09-19	1,600.80	1,386.69	19.13	757000	Upward Expansion	64	65
2025-09-12	1,602.74	1,369.16	21.17	1304000	Upward Expansion	67	80
2025-09-05	1,713.21	1,350.25	36.08	1243500	Upward Expansion	88	93
2025-08-29	1,647.31	1,327.07	33.36	1480000	Upward Expansion	84	83
2025-08-22	1,571.73	1,302.33	28.96	849500	Upward Expansion	74	57
2025-08-15	1,536.85	1,278.95	25.25	699000	Upward Expansion	71	54
2025-08-08	1,498.09	1,256.11	27.82	1260500	Upward Expansion	62	46
2025-08-01	1,449.64	1,234.72	28.00	846500	Upward Expansion	58	46
2025-07-25	1,534.91	1,214.72	34.58	838500	Upward Expansion	77	57
2025-07-18	1,426.38	1,192.00	31.49	663000	Upward Expansion	62	51
2025-07-11	1,445.76	1,171.48	35.38	878000	Upward Expansion	64	56
2025-07-04	1,432.19	1,149.71	34.62	537000	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-06-27	1,467.08	1,128.23	37.97	992500	Upward Expansion	72	71
2025-06-20	1,441.89	1,105.97	43.07	1001000	Upward Expansion	70	70
2025-06-13	1,441.89	1,084.99	46.64	1096500	Upward Expansion	73	72
2025-06-06	1,439.95	1,063.50	48.22	1790500	Upward Expansion	77	76
2025-05-30	1,358.55	1,044.24	40.36	1574500	Upward Expansion	68	70
2025-05-23	1,366.30	1,026.16	45.33	2368000	Upward Expansion	75	69
2025-05-16	1,375.99	1,007.74	45.33	3709500	Upward Expansion	80	57
2025-05-09	1,253.90	990.26	34.56	1053000	Deceleration	66	47
2025-05-02	1,211.26	976.85	33.38	1406500	Deceleration	47	35
2025-04-25	1,191.88	964.73	36.37	1350000	Upward Expansion	46	35
2025-04-18	1,222.89	953.19	44.95	1272500	Upward Expansion	66	51
2025-04-11	1,112.42	938.59	37.60	3168000	Upward Expansion	65	60
2025-04-04	1,166.69	927.33	44.54	2160500	Upward Expansion	68	68
2025-03-28	1,312.04	914.60	49.20	3557000	Upward Expansion	85	86
2025-03-21	1,339.66	898.55	51.62	1894500	Upward Expansion	97	97
2025-03-14	1,204.55	881.06	40.06	1926000	Upward Expansion	91	95
2025-03-07	1,122.72	868.71	32.05	1124500	Upward Expansion	83	94
2025-02-28	1,111.31	856.89	30.51	971500	Upward Expansion	90	96
2025-02-21	1,075.15	847.00	21.68	1696500	Upward Expansion	92	97
2025-02-14	1,035.19	840.06	16.38	1250500	Upward Expansion	95	97
2025-02-07	1,018.06	835.82	15.74	3337000	Upward Expansion	96	93
2025-01-31	904.84	833.08	1.02	808000	Rotation Up	80	74
2025-01-24	870.59	834.98	-3.99	875500	Rotation Up	39	52
2025-01-17	851.56	837.59	-2.86	523000	Balance	28	31
2025-01-10	856.32	840.59	-4.57	829000	Balance	21	25
2025-01-03	849.66	844.67	-7.44	145500	Downward Expansion	-13	13
2024-12-27	853.46	849.03	-8.46	859500	Downward Expansion	-20	13
2024-12-20	810.65	853.46	-10.06	991000	Downward Expansion	-54	38
2024-12-13	792.57	859.00	-14.34	937000	Downward Expansion	-57	50
2024-12-06	787.81	864.15	-14.60	854500	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2024-11-29	799.23	867.87	-11.99	562000	Downward Expansion	-47	30
2024-11-22	812.55	871.25	-11.43	467000	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2024-11-15	797.32	874.14	-14.54	1180000	Downward Expansion	-50	30
2024-11-08	862.02	876.96	-10.21	1705000	Downward Expansion	-17	11
2024-11-01	816.35	879.67	-12.18	771500	Downward Expansion	-40	20
2024-10-25	813.50	883.53	-12.53	637000	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2024-10-18	851.56	887.33	-11.35	507000	Downward Expansion	-30	24
2024-10-11	851.56	890.28	-13.12	632000	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2024-10-04	847.75	893.12	-11.67	1102500	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2024-09-27	845.85	895.95	-14.82	813500	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2024-09-20	784.86	898.55	-17.03	614500	Downward Expansion	-64	54
2024-09-13	774.60	904.03	-16.15	661000	Downward Expansion	-72	64
2024-09-06	784.86	909.37	-15.11	806500	Downward Expansion	-72	63
2024-08-30	830.53	912.65	-15.95	579000	Downward Expansion	-63	74
2024-08-23	814.68	917.10	-17.45	521000	Downward Expansion	-65	81
2024-08-16	834.26	921.53	-15.11	1201000	Downward Expansion	-65	77
2024-08-09	768.08	926.35	-15.32	2159000	Downward Expansion	-83	83
2024-08-02	814.68	933.67	-12.67	942000	Balance	-80	74
2024-07-26	866.88	938.16	-11.68	1202000	Balance	-58	44
2024-07-19	907.90	941.10	-13.28	1000500	Balance	-15	14
2024-07-12	935.86	942.78	-13.32	710500	Balance	1	6
2024-07-05	961.96	942.68	-10.49	649500	Balance	39	18
2024-06-28	948.91	941.84	-8.88	477500	Balance	22	15
2024-06-21	941.45	944.78	-7.31	840000	Rotation Up	27	34
2024-06-14	978.74	947.74	-4.07	890500	Rotation Up	21	40
2024-06-07	980.60	947.55	-3.37	766500	Balance	20	28
2024-05-31	986.20	945.59	-2.04	1003000	Balance	21	23
2024-05-24	976.87	941.16	-3.05	3415000	Downward Expansion	-11	10
2024-05-17	947.05	936.70	-6.12	2294500	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2024-05-10	899.51	933.69	-9.43	799500	Downward Expansion	-56	56
2024-05-03	900.44	932.15	-9.30	960500	Balance	-28	39
2024-04-26	899.51	929.56	-8.68	1820000	Balance	-28	35
2024-04-19	881.80	930.19	-8.33	1618500	Balance	-37	30
2024-04-12	943.32	933.13	-7.94	1147500	Balance	16	8
2024-04-05	932.13	934.33	-7.70	2008500	Balance	1	3
2024-03-29	927.47	935.89	-11.21	1803500	Balance	1	4
2024-03-22	940.21	937.20	-11.13	953000	Balance	5	6
2024-03-15	936.54	933.48	-6.43	1216500	Deceleration	13	8
2024-03-08	932.87	929.52	-8.99	945500	Deceleration	12	16
2024-03-01	923.71	926.61	-10.38	1227500	Deceleration	7	14
2024-02-23	949.37	924.61	-5.99	487500	Deceleration	15	14
2024-02-16	934.71	922.39	-5.87	848500	Deceleration	14	15
2024-02-09	883.39	920.12	-7.07	1827000	Deceleration	7	9
2024-02-02	964.03	918.32	3.63	599000	Deceleration	47	26
2024-01-26	947.54	913.81	3.28	690000	Deceleration	47	26
2024-01-19	978.69	909.12	6.32	487000	Deceleration	53	31
2024-01-12	987.86	901.50	8.81	478500	Deceleration	48	28
2024-01-05	949.37	893.88	11.90	325500	Deceleration	36	20
2023-12-29	954.87	885.17	12.85	766500	Upward Expansion	38	20
2023-12-22	958.53	875.70	14.92	567500	Upward Expansion	54	36
2023-12-15	932.87	866.29	13.22	854000	Upward Expansion	59	59
2023-12-08	936.54	858.76	16.78	947500	Upward Expansion	62	73
2023-12-01	1,037.34	849.87	25.94	1587500	Upward Expansion	78	84
2023-11-24	1,030.01	838.16	25.43	970500	Deceleration	77	70
2023-11-17	973.20	825.86	19.65	1320500	Deceleration	57	34
2023-11-10	921.88	814.88	17.77	2447000	Deceleration	30	15
2023-11-03	853.15	805.55	11.92	1462500	Deceleration	10	17
2023-10-27	843.07	797.84	14.69	921000	Deceleration	17	25
2023-10-20	856.82	791.26	16.33	730500	Deceleration	28	28
2023-10-13	853.15	782.91	12.83	907000	Upward Expansion	37	23
2023-10-06	822.91	774.98	14.17	1440000	Upward Expansion	43	38

Price vs TrendAbove+15.1%

Trend directionRising+1.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+104.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+41.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+7.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+30.3%

Price momentumPositive+24.8%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.03×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

45 / ±100

-22.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

35 /100

-53.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1515 Directional State ↗ 1515 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance37

Rotation Up36

Upward Expansion65

Deceleration88

Rotation Down26

Downward Expansion18

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 42%Deceleration 20%Downward Expansion 21%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-18	2026-09-25	New	-6.9%
Rotation Up	2026-08-14	2026-09-11	Developing	-0.7%
Balance	2026-07-31	2026-08-07	New	+5.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-12	2026-07-24	Developing	+19.3%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-06-05	Developing	-8.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2026-03-13	Extended	+112.9%
Deceleration	2025-05-02	2025-05-09	New	+3.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-04-25	Developing	+17.1%
Rotation Up	2025-01-24	2025-01-31	New	+3.9%
Balance	2025-01-10	2025-01-17	New	-0.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-09	2025-01-03	Established	+10.6%
Balance	2024-06-28	2024-08-02	Developing	-14.1%
Rotation Up	2024-06-14	2024-06-21	New	-3.8%
Balance	2024-05-31	2024-06-07	New	-0.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing45

Stage 2 · Advancing91

Stage 3 · Distribution55

Stage 4 · Declining9

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 75/100
Current Relative Strength: 7.06
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +24.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +0.5%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 35th percentile101 in cohort

Test 1515 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.42×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.03×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1515 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 3,392.67falling

Slow Activity JPY 2,961.87rising

Trend Reference JPY 2,819.05+15.1% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 1,583.92+104.9% close margin

Structural low JPY 2,074.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +10.6%

Annualized volatility +50.5%

From structural high -27.1%

From structural low +110.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	32	+3.7%-26.4% to +40.8%	+59.4%	+59.4%	-2.1%	+81.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	+12.7%-38.0% to +168.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+3.5%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	+16.0%-18.1% to +158.9%	+62.5%	+62.5%	+14.3%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+37.4%-23.0% to +281.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+30.3%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1515 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map