Weekly structural research ยท STO ยท Industrials

QBEN Stage Analysis

Qben Infra AB (publ)

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close SEK 6.48Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^OMX
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: wide and contracting.
Direction -67โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 67/100directional strength
Maturity 53/100lifecycle context
Confidence 80/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Widecontracting separation
Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -36.2%SEK 10.16 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 96 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-256.488.17-35.53122958Downward Expansion-6767
2026-09-186.388.28-36.65252391Downward Expansion-6888
2026-09-115.828.40-42.79461232Downward Expansion-8494
2026-09-045.468.54-47.584197521Downward Expansion-9899
2026-08-286.588.70-38.55259308Downward Expansion-8894
2026-08-216.848.84-36.18258877Downward Expansion-8988
2026-08-147.448.98-30.7715735Downward Expansion-7562
2026-08-077.549.11-31.214072Downward Expansion-7567
2026-07-317.809.24-27.989117Downward Expansion-6764
2026-07-248.009.39-25.585738Downward Expansion-6573
2026-07-177.749.50-27.297067Downward Expansion-7383
2026-07-107.909.57-27.0723576Downward Expansion-6878
2026-07-037.909.63-29.2714539Downward Expansion-6879
2026-06-268.009.70-26.993501Downward Expansion-6778
2026-06-197.909.76-29.11165746Downward Expansion-7375
2026-06-128.009.83-27.4158992Downward Expansion-7362
2026-06-058.489.92-23.8626619Downward Expansion-6231
2026-05-299.60โ€”โ€”138768Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-229.98โ€”โ€”178276Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-159.36โ€”โ€”22708Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-089.32โ€”โ€”127603Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-019.46โ€”โ€”40460Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-249.74โ€”โ€”228628Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-179.96โ€”โ€”542504Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-108.72โ€”โ€”213560Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-038.78โ€”โ€”204898Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-279.00โ€”โ€”130807Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-209.10โ€”โ€”406952Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-139.12โ€”โ€”432577Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-068.70โ€”โ€”362399Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-279.76โ€”โ€”798601Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-2010.05โ€”โ€”269942Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-1310.10โ€”โ€”338382Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-0610.20โ€”โ€”453563Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-3010.75โ€”โ€”756661Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-2310.90โ€”โ€”620865Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-1611.40โ€”โ€”779755Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-0911.40โ€”โ€”397741Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-0212.50โ€”โ€”916176Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-2611.20โ€”โ€”617532Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-199.86โ€”โ€”2195190Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-129.70โ€”โ€”241074Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-059.82โ€”โ€”211920Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2810.00โ€”โ€”527066Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2110.00โ€”โ€”601567Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-1410.75โ€”โ€”228609Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-0710.80โ€”โ€”695936Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-3111.30โ€”โ€”1298203Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-2411.00โ€”โ€”1034172Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1710.35โ€”โ€”786215Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-109.96โ€”โ€”689121Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-039.80โ€”โ€”236690Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-2610.00โ€”โ€”176957Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1910.65โ€”โ€”271799Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1211.10โ€”โ€”540924Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-0510.20โ€”โ€”228844Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2910.80โ€”โ€”559411Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-229.30โ€”โ€”219637Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-159.70โ€”โ€”65899Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-089.50โ€”โ€”95940Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-019.28โ€”โ€”119666Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-259.64โ€”โ€”61510Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-189.70โ€”โ€”212532Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1110.45โ€”โ€”117644Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-0410.65โ€”โ€”205591Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2710.45โ€”โ€”164390Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2010.40โ€”โ€”157766Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-1310.65โ€”โ€”184780Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-0610.50โ€”โ€”58871Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-3010.25โ€”โ€”86707Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-2310.45โ€”โ€”168537Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-1611.85โ€”โ€”387846Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0912.30โ€”โ€”266301Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0211.00โ€”โ€”239245Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-2510.60โ€”โ€”243106Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1810.85โ€”โ€”46537Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1110.95โ€”โ€”804706Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-0411.00โ€”โ€”619294Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2810.20โ€”โ€”1216392Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2110.95โ€”โ€”245151Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-1411.85โ€”โ€”250392Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-0712.10โ€”โ€”110493Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2812.30โ€”โ€”160555Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2113.00โ€”โ€”250771Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-1412.70โ€”โ€”116446Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-0712.20โ€”โ€”117891Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-3111.60โ€”โ€”295695Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-2411.35โ€”โ€”75640Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1712.35โ€”โ€”31633Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1013.20โ€”โ€”22429Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-0313.30โ€”โ€”37693Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2713.45โ€”โ€”18167Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2013.50โ€”โ€”155989Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-1311.65โ€”โ€”208605Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-0614.40โ€”โ€”214031Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2916.50โ€”โ€”448105Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-20.7%
Trend directionFalling-14.0%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-36.2%
Fair Value directionMoving away-11.4%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-35.5%
Relative strength directionWeakening-8.5%
Price momentumNegative-28.0%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.18ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-67 / ยฑ100

+21.9 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

67 /100

-27.0 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance8
Rotation Up13
Upward Expansion12
Deceleration51
Rotation Down73
Downward Expansion85

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-11-29 to 2026-09-25 ยท 17 classified observations out of 96 shown.

Downward Expansion 100%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-06-052026-09-25Established-23.6%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing49
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution21
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4B ยท Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^OMX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
100/100
Current Relative Strength
-35.53
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-28.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-43.1%
Industrials regime cohort
20th percentile59 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.39ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.18ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity SEK 6.19falling
Slow Activity SEK 7.59falling
Trend Reference SEK 8.17-20.7% close margin
Current Fair Value SEK 10.16-36.2% close margin
Structural low SEK 4.95shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +8.2%
Annualized volatility +44.8%
From structural high -49.6%
From structural low +30.9%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^OMX Regime survived Read
Near term4-4.2%-15.6% to -1.3%+0.0%+100.0%-6.1%+100.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate1-35.6%-35.6% to -35.6%+0.0%+100.0%-41.0%+100.0%Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context