Weekly structural research · SET · Energy

PTTEP Stage Analysis

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close THB 147.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^SET.BK

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Value reclamation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 11−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 9/100directional strength

Maturity 50/100lifecycle context

Confidence 60/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +19.3%THB 123.25 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	147.00	146.42	2.64	55998100	Rotation Up	11	9
2026-10-02	146.00	146.40	2.54	51827500	Rotation Up	27	24
2026-09-25	148.50	146.25	2.13	62838900	Rotation Up	24	32
2026-09-18	150.00	145.87	4.76	77764900	Rotation Up	27	51
2026-09-11	153.50	145.28	6.04	104705000	Rotation Up	44	61
2026-09-04	149.00	144.53	3.76	16432500	Rotation Up	32	54
2026-08-28	148.50	143.65	4.06	19980800	Rotation Up	41	56
2026-08-21	149.50	142.65	2.86	16574700	Rotation Up	62	54
2026-08-14	145.50	141.48	0.95	13366900	Rotation Up	20	31
2026-08-07	144.54	140.36	-0.07	11341900	Deceleration	14	29
2026-07-31	144.54	139.14	-0.78	18797200	Deceleration	27	25
2026-07-24	145.51	137.96	-1.35	22599300	Rotation Down	27	17
2026-07-17	141.15	136.70	-4.05	23486100	Rotation Down	-23	45
2026-07-10	135.33	135.47	-7.11	18681077	Rotation Down	-26	59
2026-07-03	131.50	134.44	-9.30	14795800	Deceleration	-33	60
2026-06-26	130.00	133.47	-6.52	9148100	Deceleration	-18	40
2026-06-19	134.00	132.56	-5.66	20159800	Deceleration	-9	22
2026-06-12	142.50	131.49	-1.16	16174800	Deceleration	21	17
2026-06-05	144.50	130.16	0.75	7652900	Deceleration	36	21
2026-05-29	141.50	128.75	-0.24	89701900	Deceleration	40	27
2026-05-22	151.00	127.48	8.76	49607100	Deceleration	47	40
2026-05-15	150.00	126.04	9.93	52816700	Deceleration	46	41
2026-05-08	148.50	124.42	10.62	82265800	Upward Expansion	47	40
2026-05-01	154.00	123.06	15.74	86228600	Upward Expansion	57	49
2026-04-24	149.50	121.60	15.94	107811300	Upward Expansion	61	56
2026-04-17	145.00	120.42	10.99	66477900	Upward Expansion	66	65
2026-04-10	151.50	119.29	14.44	108881000	Upward Expansion	68	68
2026-04-03	157.00	117.87	23.36	117471600	Upward Expansion	77	73
2026-03-27	159.50	116.25	26.49	129236900	Upward Expansion	91	85
2026-03-20	154.00	114.54	23.79	149218500	Upward Expansion	92	92
2026-03-13	146.50	113.03	20.20	183165000	Upward Expansion	89	94
2026-03-06	141.50	111.88	16.44	170753800	Upward Expansion	90	96
2026-02-27	137.00	110.99	4.44	79784200	Upward Expansion	91	97
2026-02-20	132.35	110.27	4.33	85919100	Upward Expansion	91	97
2026-02-13	130.90	109.47	6.71	107204500	Upward Expansion	97	98
2026-02-06	122.69	108.76	5.72	78096500	Rotation Up	93	96
2026-01-30	118.34	108.07	4.23	75889900	Rotation Up	63	79
2026-01-23	114.48	107.51	1.74	62929500	Rotation Up	46	67
2026-01-16	112.06	107.04	2.77	62793900	Balance	38	45
2026-01-09	107.72	106.73	0.51	57934100	Balance	14	22
2026-01-02	109.16	106.66	1.51	17442500	Balance	13	20
2025-12-26	107.72	106.12	0.34	26465200	Deceleration	-22	16
2025-12-19	104.33	105.58	-2.04	31949900	Deceleration	-14	15
2025-12-12	104.33	105.24	-2.06	26560700	Rotation Down	-28	24
2025-12-05	102.40	104.85	-5.21	38208400	Rotation Down	-32	36
2025-11-28	102.89	104.59	-3.43	38355400	Rotation Down	-22	37
2025-11-21	101.92	104.20	-4.12	28680900	Rotation Down	-28	49
2025-11-14	102.40	103.91	-4.79	27107100	Deceleration	-24	42
2025-11-07	102.40	103.70	-7.17	30398900	Deceleration	-8	27
2025-10-31	103.37	103.43	-6.75	31766400	Balance	-4	21
2025-10-24	107.72	103.29	-3.12	37814100	Balance	15	18
2025-10-17	101.44	103.34	-5.84	47188000	Upward Expansion	-1	7
2025-10-10	107.72	103.52	-0.93	21221564	Upward Expansion	50	33
2025-10-03	110.13	103.35	0.82	34870700	Upward Expansion	54	42
2025-09-26	113.99	103.01	5.63	36050100	Deceleration	68	44
2025-09-19	111.10	102.61	1.93	39372900	Deceleration	44	28
2025-09-12	109.16	102.68	0.10	41536400	Deceleration	39	23
2025-09-05	108.20	102.80	1.42	36123500	Upward Expansion	42	27
2025-08-29	108.20	102.94	3.65	31274800	Upward Expansion	57	42
2025-08-22	108.68	103.14	2.59	46129100	Rotation Up	63	66
2025-08-15	112.06	103.17	5.09	29084100	Rotation Up	37	67
2025-08-08	114.96	103.30	7.58	48140200	Rotation Up	50	72
2025-08-01	115.32	103.19	11.30	59454700	Rotation Up	54	67
2025-07-25	108.31	103.04	4.54	40360400	Rotation Up	32	53
2025-07-18	109.71	102.97	6.61	55182900	Balance	39	46
2025-07-11	101.78	102.82	6.33	26753700	Balance	-4	18
2025-07-04	101.78	103.07	6.26	45356800	Balance	-5	21
2025-06-27	100.38	103.50	8.19	77322000	Downward Expansion	-21	20
2025-06-20	102.71	103.96	12.02	87930500	Downward Expansion	-20	16
2025-06-13	105.51	104.44	9.31	74414100	Downward Expansion	-21	15
2025-06-06	92.91	104.61	-5.04	29528000	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2025-05-30	91.51	105.32	-7.86	37401800	Downward Expansion	-64	47
2025-05-23	94.31	106.05	-7.67	38816000	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2025-05-16	92.44	106.65	-11.32	43416300	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2025-05-09	94.77	107.42	-10.61	77959900	Downward Expansion	-64	69
2025-05-02	91.04	108.26	-13.64	55551300	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2025-04-25	93.37	109.21	-8.78	57207800	Downward Expansion	-72	75
2025-04-18	96.17	110.20	-5.78	23675900	Downward Expansion	-68	52
2025-04-11	94.31	111.11	-6.26	54157100	Downward Expansion	-77	49
2025-04-04	98.97	112.11	-1.63	56073100	Downward Expansion	-72	43
2025-03-28	109.25	113.03	3.65	34553900	Downward Expansion	-55	48
2025-03-21	106.91	113.61	0.41	51445800	Downward Expansion	-60	70
2025-03-14	102.71	114.32	-2.63	37089400	Downward Expansion	-65	72
2025-03-07	99.91	115.21	-7.68	43383500	Downward Expansion	-76	69
2025-02-28	101.78	116.20	-6.33	56493400	Balance	-73	42
2025-02-21	113.27	117.14	0.47	34436700	Balance	-18	11
2025-02-14	112.83	117.62	-2.07	31840100	Downward Expansion	-30	15
2025-02-07	112.38	118.04	-3.32	48338300	Downward Expansion	-29	17
2025-01-31	114.17	118.67	-4.31	32628300	Downward Expansion	-31	19
2025-01-24	109.69	119.28	-10.85	49579500	Downward Expansion	-42	22
2025-01-17	115.96	120.02	-5.01	54619200	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2025-01-10	111.48	120.55	-10.59	49332300	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2025-01-03	111.03	121.20	-12.17	24729200	Downward Expansion	-63	66
2024-12-27	106.11	121.88	-17.22	25035700	Downward Expansion	-73	73
2024-12-20	105.21	122.87	-15.95	40845600	Downward Expansion	-81	60
2024-12-13	109.24	123.82	-16.99	27944500	Downward Expansion	-73	49
2024-12-06	114.62	124.67	-14.34	17777500	Downward Expansion	-49	40
2024-11-29	114.17	125.29	-13.35	34942300	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2024-11-22	117.30	125.89	-12.31	48127300	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2024-11-15	110.59	126.51	-17.37	49704510	Downward Expansion	-78	85
2024-11-08	114.17	127.57	-16.28	55408900	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2024-11-01	113.27	128.34	-17.24	38605500	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2024-10-25	112.38	129.18	-18.19	29484700	Downward Expansion	-88	92
2024-10-18	115.51	129.86	-17.83	30809500	Downward Expansion	-85	84
2024-10-11	119.99	130.49	-13.96	51177300	Downward Expansion	-72	73
2024-10-04	119.54	130.92	-13.03	72437100	Downward Expansion	-80	77
2024-09-27	123.12	131.35	-11.00	57065200	Downward Expansion	-70	69
2024-09-20	123.57	131.58	-11.00	19196800	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2024-09-13	124.02	131.92	-9.09	45448800	Downward Expansion	-71	61
2024-09-06	126.71	132.12	-7.41	37140700	Downward Expansion	-60	42
2024-08-30	126.71	132.21	-2.77	39245100	Downward Expansion	-62	37
2024-08-23	128.05	132.22	-1.32	29747900	Downward Expansion	-57	32
2024-08-16	129.39	132.12	3.87	19079300	Rotation Down	-53	33
2024-08-09	129.84	131.99	4.95	25752500	Rotation Down	-29	46
2024-08-02	129.84	131.87	3.92	28084900	Rotation Down	-30	50
2024-07-26	127.67	131.77	2.90	21822500	Rotation Down	-38	52
2024-07-19	125.50	131.69	0.65	21789000	Deceleration	-40	44
2024-07-12	131.14	131.63	4.23	13234300	Deceleration	1	13
2024-07-05	132.44	131.37	7.16	20477300	Deceleration	7	17
2024-06-28	132.01	130.93	8.12	19090700	Deceleration	7	15
2024-06-21	132.01	130.68	8.11	17395600	Deceleration	9	12
2024-06-14	130.71	130.73	7.47	40051600	Deceleration	2	9
2024-06-07	131.58	130.81	6.50	17985600	Deceleration	22	13
2024-05-31	135.92	130.94	9.39	10491700	Deceleration	37	19
2024-05-24	133.75	131.02	6.71	13408000	Deceleration	30	23
2024-05-17	134.62	131.29	6.47	22276200	Upward Expansion	34	23
2024-05-10	133.31	131.66	6.66	13297000	Upward Expansion	42	27
2024-05-03	132.01	131.94	6.24	44710400	Rotation Up	56	40
2024-04-26	135.92	132.07	10.63	38145800	Rotation Up	36	61
2024-04-19	142.43	132.32	18.88	27239300	Rotation Up	58	72
2024-04-12	137.22	132.23	9.87	10415600	Rotation Up	43	57
2024-04-05	138.52	132.34	12.96	61544800	Rotation Up	41	47
2024-03-29	132.88	132.41	8.59	15251100	Rotation Up	21	36
2024-03-22	134.18	132.53	9.88	20670500	Balance	28	45
2024-03-15	132.88	132.50	8.98	23136900	Balance	5	30
2024-03-08	132.44	132.50	9.13	30577200	Balance	3	22
2024-03-01	130.27	132.61	9.33	38556400	Balance	-9	21
2024-02-23	133.75	132.69	10.20	42536000	Downward Expansion	3	16
2024-02-16	130.06	132.57	8.54	32094600	Downward Expansion	-32	20
2024-02-09	129.22	132.54	8.04	32999100	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2024-02-02	127.12	132.56	6.98	55185900	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2024-01-26	125.02	132.42	6.77	37790300	Rotation Down	-43	31
2024-01-19	125.44	132.34	6.26	38546000	Rotation Down	-43	33
2024-01-12	126.28	132.23	4.85	43667400	Rotation Down	-47	37
2024-01-05	126.70	132.20	4.38	29079900	Rotation Down	-33	39
2023-12-29	125.44	132.10	4.45	18469000	Rotation Down	-37	64
2023-12-22	123.76	131.80	3.95	29183500	Rotation Down	-39	69
2023-12-15	123.34	131.57	4.74	44414600	Rotation Down	-34	65
2023-12-08	119.15	131.50	2.01	69483100	Rotation Down	-49	66
2023-12-01	124.60	131.50	6.79	64799100	Deceleration	-41	40
2023-11-24	133.41	131.32	13.00	27198900	Deceleration	3	18
2023-11-17	132.99	130.90	11.29	33879672	Deceleration	20	18
2023-11-10	135.51	130.67	15.60	55805300	Upward Expansion	41	29
2023-11-03	138.45	130.56	15.75	51735300	Upward Expansion	57	43
2023-10-27	141.80	130.30	21.36	31454400	Upward Expansion	60	48
2023-10-20	145.58	129.67	23.97	57965200	Upward Expansion	79	60

Price vs TrendAbove+0.4%

Trend directionRising+5.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+19.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+8.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+2.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+9.7%

Price momentumNegative-3.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.09×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

11 / ±100

-33.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

9 /100

-52.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

PTTEP Directional State ↗ PTTEP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance63

Rotation Up25

Upward Expansion33

Deceleration66

Rotation Down33

Downward Expansion20

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 9%Rotation Up 15%Upward Expansion 15%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 12%Downward Expansion 30%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-08-14	2026-10-09	Developing	+1.0%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-08-07	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2026-07-10	2026-07-24	New	+7.5%
Deceleration	2026-05-15	2026-07-03	Developing	-12.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-05-08	Established	+13.4%
Rotation Up	2026-01-23	2026-02-06	New	+7.2%
Balance	2026-01-02	2026-01-16	New	+2.7%
Deceleration	2025-12-19	2025-12-26	New	+3.2%
Rotation Down	2025-11-21	2025-12-12	New	+2.4%
Deceleration	2025-11-07	2025-11-14	New	+0.0%
Balance	2025-10-24	2025-10-31	New	-4.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-03	2025-10-17	New	-7.9%
Deceleration	2025-09-12	2025-09-26	New	+4.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-29	2025-09-05	New	+0.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing45

Stage 2 · Advancing74

Stage 3 · Distribution52

Stage 4 · Declining26

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^SET.BK

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 74/100
Current Relative Strength: 2.64
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -3.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -7.7%
Energy regime cohort: 50th percentile2 in cohort

Test PTTEP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.67×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.09×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore PTTEP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity THB 147.87falling

Slow Activity THB 145.54rising

Trend Reference THB 146.42+0.4% close margin

Current Fair Value THB 123.25+19.3% close margin

Structural low THB 129.50shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +3.4%

Annualized volatility +20.6%

From structural high -10.4%

From structural low +46.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^SET.BK	Regime survived	Read
Near term	9	+2.2%-4.2% to +15.6%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-0.9%	+44.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	+2.1%-0.7% to +30.6%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+4.9%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+5.7%-7.3% to +27.1%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+2.1%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+34.3%-2.1% to +47.1%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+13.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

PTTEP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map