Weekly structural research ยท JPX ยท Industrials

287A Stage Analysis

KURODA GROUP CO LTD

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 1,172.00Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^N225
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Upward Expansion ยท Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction 50โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 33/100directional strength
Maturity 81/100lifecycle context
Confidence 79/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +25.0%JPY 937.54 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
View chart values ยท 93 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-251,172.001,062.493.12831100Upward Expansion5033
2026-09-181,142.001,059.712.471621700Upward Expansion4736
2026-09-111,126.001,055.992.522075400Upward Expansion5945
2026-09-041,157.001,051.713.602461300Upward Expansion6473
2026-08-281,198.001,045.854.801299100Upward Expansion7383
2026-08-211,181.001,037.843.70423000Upward Expansion7176
2026-08-141,215.001,030.792.23538800Upward Expansion8469
2026-08-071,141.001,021.570.43638000Upward Expansion7247
2026-07-311,091.001,014.63-2.39479000Upward Expansion5942
2026-07-241,098.001,008.57-2.50526900Upward Expansion6548
2026-07-171,071.001,001.48-4.471003900Upward Expansion6149
2026-07-101,109.00994.54-7.86516200Upward Expansion7370
2026-07-031,101.00985.91-10.561192300Upward Expansion7461
2026-06-261,069.00977.49-13.25515700Upward Expansion6570
2026-06-191,106.00โ€”โ€”1352900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-121,006.00โ€”โ€”379200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-051,057.00โ€”โ€”381300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-291,067.00โ€”โ€”3214500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-221,018.00โ€”โ€”4604400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-15951.00โ€”โ€”1738400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-08958.00โ€”โ€”868500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-01944.00โ€”โ€”1172900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-24948.00โ€”โ€”1826300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-17972.00โ€”โ€”1601400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-10971.00โ€”โ€”1373100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-03962.00โ€”โ€”2260600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-27984.00โ€”โ€”2901400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-20986.91โ€”โ€”1546500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-131,013.08โ€”โ€”2471700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-061,059.62โ€”โ€”3658600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-271,088.70โ€”โ€”2171000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-201,030.53โ€”โ€”3887300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-13997.57โ€”โ€”2508900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-06981.09โ€”โ€”3189100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-30957.82โ€”โ€”2719500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-23969.46โ€”โ€”3939800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-16938.44โ€”โ€”2855200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-09932.62โ€”โ€”3026100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-02909.35โ€”โ€”1326500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-26885.12โ€”โ€”2354800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-19862.82โ€”โ€”1946900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-12850.21โ€”โ€”2063800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-05848.28โ€”โ€”1956600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-28847.31โ€”โ€”1221000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-21846.34โ€”โ€”3220900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-14853.12โ€”โ€”3359900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-07834.70โ€”โ€”1544200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-31843.43โ€”โ€”2242700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-24834.70โ€”โ€”2485200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-17827.92โ€”โ€”2088600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-10812.41โ€”โ€”3173400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-03818.22โ€”โ€”5669100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-26837.61โ€”โ€”3547500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-19830.12โ€”โ€”2811400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-12831.99โ€”โ€”4506200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-05847.92โ€”โ€”3435200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-29854.48โ€”โ€”3638400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-22861.97โ€”โ€”4469700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-15816.06โ€”โ€”4556800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-08832.93โ€”โ€”4683800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-01824.49โ€”โ€”5566000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-25813.25โ€”โ€”8840300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-18821.68โ€”โ€”2978600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-11835.74โ€”โ€”3735800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-04867.59โ€”โ€”880600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-27883.52โ€”โ€”1177700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-20865.72โ€”โ€”848200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-13857.29โ€”โ€”947500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-06875.09โ€”โ€”1028500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-30881.65โ€”โ€”1049300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-23856.35โ€”โ€”1880000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-16885.40โ€”โ€”1594100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-09860.10โ€”โ€”775500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-02856.35โ€”โ€”865500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-25858.22โ€”โ€”1286100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-18830.12โ€”โ€”1584900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-11771.09โ€”โ€”4708700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-04798.26โ€”โ€”3898100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-28918.19โ€”โ€”2621400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-21926.61โ€”โ€”1450000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-14940.72โ€”โ€”1585300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-07926.61โ€”โ€”1886100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-28945.13โ€”โ€”1700600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-211,000.67โ€”โ€”3273100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-14904.57โ€”โ€”2204700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-07840.21โ€”โ€”2330600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-31881.65โ€”โ€”1443600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-24888.70โ€”โ€”1378300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-17898.40โ€”โ€”1328100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-10913.39โ€”โ€”4172800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-03893.99โ€”โ€”1472800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-27857.85โ€”โ€”5307900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-20854.32โ€”โ€”26287800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+10.3%
Trend directionRising+6.1%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+25.0%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+6.9%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+3.1%
Relative strength directionImproving+16.4%
Price momentumPositive+19.1%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.11ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

50 / ยฑ100

-22.7 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

33 /100

-50.0 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance24
Rotation Up37
Upward Expansion67
Deceleration85
Rotation Down27
Downward Expansion17

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-12-20 to 2026-09-25 ยท 14 classified observations out of 93 shown.

Upward Expansion 100%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Upward Expansion2026-06-262026-09-25Established+9.6%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing22
Stage 2 ยท Advancing100
Stage 3 ยท Distribution52
Stage 4 ยท Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2B ยท Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
65/100
Current Relative Strength
3.12
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+19.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-5.2%
Industrials regime cohort
16th percentile306 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.64ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.11ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity JPY 1,154.53falling
Slow Activity JPY 1,100.81rising
Trend Reference JPY 1,062.49+10.3% close margin
Current Fair Value JPY 937.54+25.0% close margin
Structural low JPY 928.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.4%
Annualized volatility +25.5%
From structural high -4.3%
From structural low +45.5%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^N225 Regime survived Read
Near term3+2.7%-3.3% to +7.6%+66.7%+66.7%+5.4%+100.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate1+9.6%+9.6% to +9.6%+100.0%+100.0%+14.0%+100.0%Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context