Weekly structural research · JPX · Real Estate

1847 Stage Analysis

Ichiken Co., Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 3,465.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 75−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 68/100directional strength

Maturity 61/100lifecycle context

Confidence 89/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +106.0%JPY 1,682.20 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	3,465.00	2,872.55	15.98	85400	Upward Expansion	75	68
2026-09-18	3,430.00	2,863.91	17.87	139500	Upward Expansion	74	69
2026-09-11	3,310.00	2,844.95	16.24	110000	Upward Expansion	68	87
2026-09-04	3,410.00	2,826.93	18.52	123700	Upward Expansion	70	89
2026-08-28	3,455.00	2,797.32	18.18	114000	Upward Expansion	86	95
2026-08-21	3,340.00	2,762.82	15.54	23200	Upward Expansion	86	95
2026-08-14	3,395.00	2,732.08	13.39	43300	Upward Expansion	92	95
2026-08-07	3,260.00	2,701.52	14.55	32400	Upward Expansion	78	74
2026-07-31	2,640.00	2,674.16	-4.98	21400	Balance	3	10
2026-07-24	2,759.00	2,663.60	-0.91	20000	Balance	31	23
2026-07-17	2,663.00	2,650.20	-3.35	45400	Balance	0	6
2026-07-10	2,652.00	2,638.62	-9.75	17300	Balance	0	9
2026-07-03	2,675.00	2,624.58	-10.46	21500	Balance	-2	8
2026-06-26	2,587.00	2,609.21	-12.86	28600	Rotation Down	-13	10
2026-06-19	2,685.00	2,596.94	-11.89	23300	Rotation Down	8	12
2026-06-12	2,586.00	2,576.79	-8.44	21100	Rotation Down	-18	41
2026-06-05	2,563.00	2,560.02	-10.01	18700	Deceleration	-18	41
2026-05-29	2,542.00	2,545.47	-10.39	200700	Deceleration	-1	21
2026-05-22	2,516.00	2,523.14	-7.11	706600	Deceleration	-2	11
2026-05-15	2,552.00	2,500.46	-2.80	387900	Deceleration	5	7
2026-05-08	2,746.00	2,474.08	2.67	97100	Deceleration	24	15
2026-05-01	2,735.00	2,441.31	8.15	241100	Deceleration	32	18
2026-04-24	2,704.00	2,407.85	7.03	145900	Deceleration	33	19
2026-04-17	2,723.00	2,376.00	10.49	151700	Deceleration	33	24
2026-04-10	2,729.00	2,343.35	14.25	154700	Deceleration	37	26
2026-04-03	2,682.00	2,311.29	20.90	278700	Upward Expansion	42	29
2026-03-27	2,662.50	2,280.17	20.23	283200	Upward Expansion	60	50
2026-03-20	2,788.59	2,248.19	26.75	215800	Upward Expansion	66	66
2026-03-13	2,904.99	2,211.29	31.97	264800	Upward Expansion	68	70
2026-03-06	3,016.53	2,170.99	33.78	340200	Upward Expansion	75	88
2026-02-27	3,205.67	2,124.51	35.57	193600	Upward Expansion	95	97
2026-02-20	2,861.34	2,068.39	26.52	215000	Upward Expansion	90	83
2026-02-13	2,769.19	2,022.00	23.16	315600	Upward Expansion	92	75
2026-02-06	2,521.86	1,978.20	18.56	109600	Upward Expansion	79	70
2026-01-30	2,420.01	1,943.37	16.66	129400	Upward Expansion	66	65
2026-01-23	2,417.59	1,911.37	16.31	123400	Upward Expansion	68	67
2026-01-16	2,478.21	1,878.42	19.98	107000	Upward Expansion	83	73
2026-01-09	2,439.41	1,844.80	23.64	128000	Upward Expansion	85	74
2026-01-02	2,323.02	1,812.32	22.50	27600	Upward Expansion	72	69
2025-12-26	2,356.97	1,783.00	24.32	88200	Upward Expansion	83	73
2025-12-19	2,315.74	1,752.71	26.31	129600	Upward Expansion	85	74
2025-12-12	2,230.87	1,724.19	19.51	58200	Upward Expansion	78	74
2025-12-05	2,213.90	1,694.95	20.31	245800	Upward Expansion	81	89
2025-11-28	2,218.75	1,665.87	22.05	112800	Upward Expansion	91	96
2025-11-21	2,080.53	1,636.41	19.13	126400	Upward Expansion	79	92
2025-11-14	2,082.96	1,611.01	15.88	154800	Upward Expansion	90	96
2025-11-07	2,126.61	1,584.52	19.25	268800	Upward Expansion	97	96
2025-10-31	1,871.99	1,555.36	1.36	192400	Upward Expansion	82	68
2025-10-24	1,835.62	1,534.25	5.98	88200	Upward Expansion	81	64
2025-10-17	1,760.45	1,517.46	5.78	81800	Upward Expansion	67	58
2025-10-10	1,762.88	1,503.35	5.27	190800	Upward Expansion	70	64
2025-10-03	1,731.35	1,488.19	9.11	166800	Upward Expansion	67	65
2025-09-26	1,748.33	1,474.10	11.67	71800	Upward Expansion	69	68
2025-09-19	1,743.56	1,458.73	12.69	113800	Upward Expansion	70	73
2025-09-12	1,767.38	1,444.75	15.45	93600	Upward Expansion	81	92
2025-09-05	1,748.33	1,430.13	19.40	121400	Upward Expansion	83	93
2025-08-29	1,703.07	1,411.75	17.73	108200	Upward Expansion	81	93
2025-08-22	1,681.63	1,394.01	17.10	161600	Upward Expansion	84	94
2025-08-15	1,695.92	1,376.52	16.72	203000	Upward Expansion	91	92
2025-08-08	1,622.08	1,358.42	16.43	411600	Upward Expansion	87	66
2025-08-01	1,522.04	1,344.20	12.51	189200	Upward Expansion	75	57
2025-07-25	1,469.64	1,333.18	7.35	120200	Upward Expansion	63	48
2025-07-18	1,455.35	1,323.82	10.99	99200	Upward Expansion	60	46
2025-07-11	1,476.79	1,314.62	13.81	81000	Upward Expansion	69	54
2025-07-04	1,460.11	1,304.49	12.43	215800	Upward Expansion	65	51
2025-06-27	1,429.15	1,294.46	9.60	456200	Upward Expansion	63	52
2025-06-20	1,469.64	1,285.94	18.19	187600	Upward Expansion	71	77
2025-06-13	1,464.88	1,276.01	20.13	257800	Upward Expansion	74	83
2025-06-06	1,443.44	1,266.35	19.32	266200	Upward Expansion	72	82
2025-05-30	1,448.21	1,258.01	19.64	236400	Upward Expansion	79	83
2025-05-23	1,460.11	1,248.18	23.82	1668200	Upward Expansion	85	79
2025-05-16	1,353.88	1,236.29	13.68	367200	Upward Expansion	65	60
2025-05-09	1,341.50	1,228.84	13.90	61600	Upward Expansion	62	45
2025-05-02	1,334.83	1,221.95	15.94	136400	Deceleration	62	34
2025-04-25	1,318.63	1,216.11	18.73	101200	Deceleration	47	24
2025-04-18	1,288.14	1,211.45	19.90	90400	Deceleration	39	21
2025-04-11	1,251.94	1,207.30	21.16	427600	Upward Expansion	43	27
2025-04-04	1,238.60	1,203.76	19.91	357200	Upward Expansion	51	40
2025-03-28	1,331.97	1,200.74	17.98	159600	Upward Expansion	72	61
2025-03-21	1,337.13	1,195.73	17.25	139400	Upward Expansion	77	65
2025-03-14	1,308.06	1,188.89	17.26	109600	Upward Expansion	68	83
2025-03-07	1,308.52	1,182.95	18.36	186000	Upward Expansion	72	88
2025-02-28	1,287.30	1,175.18	16.18	197200	Upward Expansion	66	85
2025-02-21	1,324.21	1,168.54	15.06	262600	Upward Expansion	86	90
2025-02-14	1,328.82	1,162.92	14.85	408200	Upward Expansion	87	79
2025-02-07	1,196.86	1,157.72	4.84	139800	Upward Expansion	45	22
2025-01-31	1,171.03	1,156.95	0.63	384200	Upward Expansion	29	17
2025-01-24	1,156.72	1,157.68	-1.49	145000	Upward Expansion	28	12
2025-01-17	1,153.03	1,159.33	2.02	198200	Upward Expansion	43	25
2025-01-10	1,195.48	1,160.14	3.88	111600	Upward Expansion	63	56
2025-01-03	1,191.33	1,158.51	1.82	41400	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-12-27	1,189.02	1,156.74	0.60	106600	Balance	60	36
2024-12-20	1,179.33	1,156.13	3.80	77200	Balance	55	30
2024-12-13	1,172.87	1,154.78	1.28	80400	Balance	52	32
2024-12-06	1,159.03	1,152.59	1.05	93400	Balance	50	42
2024-11-29	1,173.80	1,149.95	4.65	120400	Balance	52	48
2024-11-22	1,171.49	1,146.63	4.27	99400	Balance	50	40
2024-11-15	1,175.18	1,143.13	3.66	178000	Balance	49	33
2024-11-08	1,193.17	1,138.96	2.99	114800	Balance	55	21
2024-11-01	1,153.49	1,135.49	3.35	289200	Balance	-11	12
2024-10-25	1,103.20	1,133.63	-0.75	191000	Balance	-18	16
2024-10-18	1,130.42	1,134.94	-1.09	68200	Balance	21	9
2024-10-11	1,135.04	1,134.10	-2.23	124600	Balance	38	19
2024-10-04	1,159.49	1,132.72	2.46	142200	Balance	47	31
2024-09-27	1,178.87	1,130.75	1.11	142200	Balance	45	34
2024-09-20	1,163.71	1,127.77	5.43	102000	Balance	40	25
2024-09-13	1,145.61	1,124.96	7.20	172600	Balance	32	20
2024-09-06	1,147.87	1,122.14	8.24	219000	Balance	31	18
2024-08-30	1,181.80	1,120.22	5.20	112600	Balance	30	14
2024-08-23	1,132.04	1,116.33	1.73	134200	Balance	-11	19
2024-08-16	1,129.77	1,112.49	2.43	180200	Balance	7	18
2024-08-09	1,075.48	1,109.01	6.11	598600	Upward Expansion	6	16
2024-08-02	1,088.15	1,107.02	4.94	271000	Upward Expansion	14	14
2024-07-26	1,155.56	1,104.84	6.43	133400	Upward Expansion	54	36
2024-07-19	1,172.76	1,099.99	1.80	101200	Upward Expansion	61	48
2024-07-12	1,173.66	1,093.71	-0.74	178600	Upward Expansion	62	57
2024-07-05	1,193.12	1,087.26	1.77	115000	Upward Expansion	69	68
2024-06-28	1,206.24	1,080.31	6.57	254800	Upward Expansion	78	69
2024-06-21	1,177.28	1,073.70	7.03	159000	Upward Expansion	72	69
2024-06-14	1,146.51	1,068.21	4.02	69000	Upward Expansion	61	68
2024-06-07	1,138.37	1,063.71	3.99	66400	Upward Expansion	59	66
2024-05-31	1,170.49	1,058.53	7.78	188000	Upward Expansion	76	68
2024-05-24	1,138.82	1,051.08	4.77	403200	Deceleration	66	41
2024-05-17	1,107.15	1,043.15	1.70	438000	Deceleration	45	22
2024-05-10	1,080.00	1,036.14	0.78	59200	Deceleration	25	20
2024-05-03	1,074.12	1,029.92	0.18	66600	Deceleration	27	22
2024-04-26	1,066.43	1,024.05	0.22	196400	Deceleration	32	22
2024-04-19	1,050.14	1,019.19	0.95	177200	Upward Expansion	39	28
2024-04-12	1,089.05	1,014.98	-1.81	158800	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-04-05	1,097.65	1,009.47	0.29	125200	Upward Expansion	64	55
2024-03-29	1,142.44	1,002.96	0.83	244400	Upward Expansion	85	69
2024-03-22	1,105.28	994.72	-3.63	162400	Upward Expansion	72	64
2024-03-15	1,093.81	987.45	0.71	145800	Upward Expansion	69	65
2024-03-08	1,100.43	980.04	-1.15	134800	Upward Expansion	77	71
2024-03-01	1,089.40	973.09	-2.68	140400	Upward Expansion	74	83
2024-02-23	1,079.26	966.46	-1.62	112000	Upward Expansion	73	88
2024-02-16	1,061.17	959.96	-1.74	146600	Upward Expansion	66	84
2024-02-09	1,090.28	953.41	5.32	208600	Upward Expansion	90	92
2024-02-02	1,065.14	944.93	5.18	237200	Upward Expansion	87	82
2024-01-26	1,016.63	937.56	1.67	139400	Upward Expansion	63	63
2024-01-19	1,025.45	931.83	2.01	123800	Upward Expansion	70	69
2024-01-12	1,015.75	925.18	2.17	161200	Upward Expansion	66	55
2024-01-05	1,022.80	918.81	9.67	110000	Upward Expansion	74	56
2023-12-29	1,010.01	911.76	8.18	130200	Upward Expansion	69	49
2023-12-22	984.43	905.16	6.50	107800	Upward Expansion	59	48
2023-12-15	980.02	899.50	6.78	100400	Upward Expansion	64	58
2023-12-08	984.87	894.34	9.72	127200	Upward Expansion	67	83
2023-12-01	1,007.81	889.59	8.81	91400	Upward Expansion	72	89
2023-11-24	1,012.66	883.76	8.97	118800	Upward Expansion	81	92
2023-11-17	1,011.33	877.64	9.23	226400	Upward Expansion	87	90
2023-11-10	983.11	870.86	9.78	328800	Deceleration	83	70
2023-11-03	946.94	864.65	8.10	342000	Deceleration	73	42
2023-10-27	901.07	858.79	6.21	137800	Deceleration	38	22
2023-10-20	896.66	854.39	4.90	97400	Upward Expansion	43	29
2023-10-13	893.57	849.64	1.18	113200	Upward Expansion	58	43
2023-10-06	897.98	845.07	6.01	211000	Upward Expansion	64	55

Price vs TrendAbove+20.6%

Trend directionRising+8.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+106.0%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+33.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+16.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+28.8%

Price momentumPositive+30.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.70×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

75 / ±100

-11.1 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

68 /100

-26.9 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1847 Directional State ↗ 1847 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance12

Rotation Up68

Upward Expansion88

Deceleration65

Rotation Down21

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 16%Upward Expansion 69%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 2%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-07	2026-09-25	Developing	+6.3%
Balance	2026-07-03	2026-07-31	Developing	-1.3%
Rotation Down	2026-06-12	2026-06-26	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2026-04-10	2026-06-05	Developing	-6.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-09	2026-04-03	Extended	+99.9%
Deceleration	2025-04-18	2025-05-02	New	+3.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-03	2025-04-11	Established	+5.1%
Balance	2024-08-16	2024-12-27	Established	+5.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-31	2024-08-09	Developing	-8.1%
Deceleration	2024-04-26	2024-05-24	Developing	+6.8%
Upward Expansion	2023-11-17	2024-04-19	Established	+3.8%
Deceleration	2023-10-27	2023-11-10	New	+9.1%
Upward Expansion	2023-07-07	2023-10-20	Established	+6.2%
Deceleration	2023-06-16	2023-06-30	New	+2.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution52

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 93/100
Current Relative Strength: 15.98
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +30.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +5.8%
Real Estate regime cohort: 83th percentile29 in cohort

Test 1847 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.78×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.70×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1847 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 3,416.67rising

Slow Activity JPY 2,987.30rising

Trend Reference JPY 2,872.55+20.6% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 1,682.20+106.0% close margin

Structural low JPY 2,442.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.6%

Annualized volatility +34.9%

From structural high -1.6%

From structural low +103.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	35	+3.5%-6.1% to +13.3%	+68.6%	+68.6%	+1.5%	+82.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	+8.0%-0.3% to +34.2%	+91.7%	+91.7%	+3.6%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+22.2%-1.4% to +55.5%	+85.7%	+85.7%	+8.3%	+100.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+46.0%+9.8% to +110.7%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+12.7%	+100.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1847 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map