Weekly structural research · NYSE · Industrials

URI Stage Analysis

United Rentals Inc

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 1,081.04Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 15−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 12/100directional strength

Maturity 22/100lifecycle context

Confidence 89/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +39.9%USD 772.58 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	1,081.04	986.68	7.01	3403841	Balance	15	12
2026-09-25	1,047.06	977.57	3.32	2050968	Upward Expansion	5	18
2026-09-18	1,013.91	970.61	1.21	2314143	Upward Expansion	5	21
2026-09-11	989.12	967.05	-1.49	1859566	Upward Expansion	1	16
2026-09-04	1,009.86	963.01	-0.39	1925508	Upward Expansion	27	17
2026-08-28	1,030.25	959.20	1.44	2094834	Upward Expansion	44	32
2026-08-21	1,098.51	950.81	8.44	2168200	Upward Expansion	58	45
2026-08-14	1,153.83	944.70	12.32	2096760	Upward Expansion	67	54
2026-08-07	1,160.82	936.81	13.29	2261319	Upward Expansion	72	53
2026-07-31	1,077.38	929.27	9.08	2511126	Upward Expansion	59	46
2026-07-24	1,139.60	921.41	16.74	3579580	Upward Expansion	75	58
2026-07-17	1,043.39	910.90	6.47	2023057	Upward Expansion	63	54
2026-07-10	1,093.64	903.08	10.06	1847129	Upward Expansion	66	63
2026-07-03	1,098.59	893.79	12.29	1321007	Upward Expansion	70	83
2026-06-26	1,121.66	883.62	17.49	3114520	Upward Expansion	80	90
2026-06-19	1,076.81	873.28	10.61	2386061	Upward Expansion	76	89
2026-06-12	1,074.24	863.94	11.79	2656204	Upward Expansion	81	88
2026-06-05	1,067.77	855.81	12.22	2826802	Upward Expansion	86	85
2026-05-29	995.67	848.31	2.43	1767261	Upward Expansion	77	79
2026-05-22	938.62	843.98	-1.88	2374230	Upward Expansion	64	75
2026-05-15	961.15	842.94	1.43	2785150	Rotation Up	71	78
2026-05-08	935.03	843.37	-1.01	2558227	Rotation Up	39	47
2026-05-01	947.23	843.67	2.76	2830505	Rotation Up	24	34
2026-04-24	972.36	844.57	6.70	4099967	Rotation Up	-0	12
2026-04-17	794.48	843.54	-12.07	2486330	Downward Expansion	-56	36
2026-04-10	770.31	848.24	-10.90	2101949	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2026-04-03	730.55	853.63	-12.40	2370088	Downward Expansion	-66	74
2026-03-27	732.76	861.57	-9.13	2560840	Downward Expansion	-66	73
2026-03-20	708.98	868.82	-14.01	2768837	Downward Expansion	-76	74
2026-03-13	735.67	875.99	-12.41	4104548	Balance	-69	57
2026-03-06	807.90	881.57	-5.25	3292937	Balance	-45	22
2026-02-27	838.23	883.03	-3.48	3065513	Balance	-31	14
2026-02-20	907.20	883.51	4.16	1951865	Balance	-10	9
2026-02-13	867.74	882.69	1.09	3061135	Balance	-22	11
2026-02-06	895.64	880.47	3.09	5548811	Balance	-2	7
2026-01-30	778.66	877.53	-10.46	5314035	Rotation Up	-34	25
2026-01-23	915.04	877.78	5.43	2299630	Rotation Up	24	35
2026-01-16	917.24	872.15	5.36	2504661	Deceleration	24	29
2026-01-09	934.71	864.90	7.06	4041146	Deceleration	22	20
2026-01-02	841.39	856.71	-1.81	1379504	Deceleration	-16	19
2025-12-26	824.34	852.02	-4.70	1186307	Rotation Down	-30	31
2025-12-19	808.89	847.96	-5.17	4051872	Rotation Down	-33	36
2025-12-12	814.75	844.14	-4.41	4283352	Rotation Down	-27	50
2025-12-05	793.45	840.97	-7.57	3471697	Rotation Down	-36	63
2025-11-28	811.64	836.69	-5.51	3101316	Rotation Down	-31	54
2025-11-21	796.52	831.58	-4.20	4408266	Deceleration	-37	44
2025-11-14	830.40	825.92	-2.37	2060870	Deceleration	-10	28
2025-11-07	842.81	817.74	-1.05	2665463	Deceleration	12	17
2025-10-31	865.59	808.87	-0.33	3527686	Upward Expansion	34	23
2025-10-24	907.47	798.63	5.05	3217027	Upward Expansion	48	42
2025-10-17	974.08	789.08	14.84	2125257	Upward Expansion	66	55
2025-10-10	943.94	777.32	13.28	1881142	Upward Expansion	60	54
2025-10-03	974.51	766.40	14.19	1914604	Upward Expansion	72	62
2025-09-26	941.20	754.65	11.65	2258613	Upward Expansion	63	62
2025-09-19	935.48	744.45	10.66	3409919	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-09-12	931.98	734.94	11.67	2535342	Upward Expansion	68	71
2025-09-05	968.98	728.32	18.15	1822196	Upward Expansion	83	87
2025-08-29	950.21	720.38	16.68	2796912	Upward Expansion	85	84
2025-08-22	923.99	713.64	13.69	2215925	Upward Expansion	84	83
2025-08-15	903.05	708.82	11.63	2580797	Upward Expansion	84	91
2025-08-08	851.83	704.07	6.52	1969419	Upward Expansion	71	87
2025-08-01	852.47	697.75	9.32	3198106	Upward Expansion	76	90
2025-07-25	882.60	692.20	10.65	4754449	Upward Expansion	92	96
2025-07-18	801.33	686.35	2.00	3077264	Upward Expansion	75	87
2025-07-11	807.51	683.41	3.40	2765480	Rotation Up	85	87
2025-07-04	785.91	682.11	0.49	2039282	Rotation Up	55	61
2025-06-27	746.36	684.17	-2.77	2962217	Rotation Up	36	31
2025-06-20	699.53	687.78	-5.66	2340415	Rotation Up	21	23
2025-06-13	689.06	692.40	-7.21	2078592	Rotation Up	19	35
2025-06-06	700.77	696.93	-5.94	1729831	Balance	22	34
2025-05-30	702.49	702.29	-4.19	1762833	Balance	4	25
2025-05-23	694.28	704.93	-3.73	1962973	Balance	-0	22
2025-05-16	719.63	708.46	-2.85	3231954	Downward Expansion	-4	19
2025-05-09	665.14	712.03	-5.57	3089846	Downward Expansion	-36	23
2025-05-02	658.21	716.74	-7.18	3200435	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2025-04-25	626.76	720.72	-9.21	4547478	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2025-04-18	585.11	726.56	-11.63	2489716	Downward Expansion	-66	61
2025-04-11	576.61	732.78	-14.33	6302739	Downward Expansion	-72	61
2025-04-04	558.47	737.51	-12.63	3795245	Downward Expansion	-84	80
2025-03-28	620.87	741.26	-12.01	2596257	Downward Expansion	-68	80
2025-03-21	621.38	744.90	-13.56	2867275	Downward Expansion	-68	86
2025-03-14	616.19	748.64	-14.18	3774852	Downward Expansion	-75	86
2025-03-07	621.97	751.56	-15.63	5114693	Downward Expansion	-77	81
2025-02-28	635.38	753.63	-16.75	4200557	Balance	-78	77
2025-02-21	650.19	754.44	-15.98	3113307	Balance	-49	47
2025-02-14	733.25	757.41	-7.05	2043577	Balance	-8	11
2025-02-07	730.92	756.51	-6.09	2956089	Balance	-9	15
2025-01-31	748.05	754.40	-4.16	3870643	Rotation Down	-3	8
2025-01-24	779.13	750.23	-1.28	2355923	Rotation Down	-14	22
2025-01-17	760.82	745.44	-1.93	4325452	Rotation Down	-26	53
2025-01-10	662.08	741.07	-12.01	2793902	Rotation Down	-42	69
2025-01-03	686.13	739.19	-10.61	2111691	Deceleration	-38	47
2024-12-27	707.08	737.39	-8.34	1016673	Deceleration	-13	29
2024-12-20	713.10	735.75	-6.96	3721541	Upward Expansion	8	13
2024-12-13	768.54	734.04	-1.55	2782375	Upward Expansion	44	33
2024-12-06	847.58	730.88	8.04	2413035	Upward Expansion	64	53
2024-11-29	854.57	725.50	10.42	1780187	Upward Expansion	69	58
2024-11-22	838.11	718.80	10.13	2519991	Upward Expansion	66	52
2024-11-15	824.96	713.43	10.86	2615884	Upward Expansion	62	50
2024-11-08	861.82	706.46	14.01	4061605	Upward Expansion	80	69
2024-11-01	781.51	699.79	8.99	2452697	Upward Expansion	62	66
2024-10-25	800.25	696.83	10.64	3164412	Upward Expansion	64	72
2024-10-18	826.62	693.72	13.94	1899663	Upward Expansion	76	80
2024-10-11	806.65	689.51	12.96	2288248	Upward Expansion	71	76
2024-10-04	777.62	684.69	10.84	2133864	Upward Expansion	65	68
2024-09-27	801.83	680.87	15.25	2244345	Upward Expansion	75	62
2024-09-20	771.79	677.03	12.22	2478752	Upward Expansion	71	47
2024-09-13	718.47	672.81	6.57	2224900	Upward Expansion	56	35
2024-09-06	670.83	670.11	3.95	1588615	Upward Expansion	47	31
2024-08-30	730.09	668.95	8.82	1495039	Upward Expansion	61	47
2024-08-23	733.80	665.94	10.07	1298283	Balance	63	36
2024-08-16	703.70	662.03	7.56	1682501	Balance	55	43
2024-08-09	684.02	657.22	9.17	2659715	Balance	49	45
2024-08-02	659.78	652.64	5.67	3459991	Balance	49	37
2024-07-26	739.16	648.30	16.28	4477310	Balance	71	51
2024-07-19	706.17	642.35	10.89	3446192	Balance	49	27
2024-07-12	667.79	637.40	3.33	2808498	Balance	19	10
2024-07-05	622.95	633.78	-2.33	1834437	Balance	-17	26
2024-06-28	635.51	629.15	1.80	2789702	Balance	-13	23
2024-06-21	629.66	624.32	1.11	3218174	Deceleration	6	18
2024-06-14	605.52	618.56	-1.75	3762639	Deceleration	-4	14
2024-06-07	632.23	614.06	4.65	2945919	Deceleration	11	8
2024-05-31	657.79	607.86	10.80	2229821	Deceleration	38	24
2024-05-24	661.86	600.60	11.84	1678733	Deceleration	49	29
2024-05-17	673.89	591.50	14.72	2097078	Deceleration	44	31
2024-05-10	686.01	582.24	19.64	1970404	Deceleration	48	26
2024-05-03	653.51	573.44	17.18	2982596	Deceleration	38	23
2024-04-26	677.17	565.73	23.15	3622372	Deceleration	49	32
2024-04-19	615.95	557.60	15.97	3249872	Upward Expansion	46	37
2024-04-12	661.50	551.14	21.50	2411915	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-04-05	692.93	543.77	26.31	1996866	Upward Expansion	67	65
2024-03-29	706.89	535.74	28.85	1561851	Upward Expansion	78	69
2024-03-22	700.18	528.13	29.03	2925286	Upward Expansion	80	70
2024-03-15	662.25	519.38	25.75	3166266	Upward Expansion	67	66
2024-03-08	662.80	511.97	26.65	2742931	Upward Expansion	70	67
2024-03-01	686.77	505.74	31.44	2426732	Upward Expansion	86	88
2024-02-23	645.25	497.93	25.12	1604914	Upward Expansion	73	87
2024-02-16	637.48	490.86	26.05	2587957	Upward Expansion	73	89
2024-02-09	635.89	484.20	25.70	2504765	Upward Expansion	78	90
2024-02-02	639.66	477.43	28.66	3252705	Upward Expansion	87	89
2024-01-26	616.73	470.15	26.33	6234183	Upward Expansion	86	67
2024-01-19	559.32	464.01	16.24	2364688	Upward Expansion	70	61
2024-01-12	546.75	458.47	15.47	2389176	Upward Expansion	65	75
2024-01-05	529.36	453.29	14.29	2491223	Upward Expansion	67	83
2023-12-29	560.67	448.25	19.59	1664709	Upward Expansion	79	90
2023-12-22	557.83	441.27	20.03	3597215	Upward Expansion	86	90
2023-12-15	559.03	434.04	22.04	4868087	Upward Expansion	91	86
2023-12-08	484.06	426.71	8.83	3335702	Upward Expansion	69	72
2023-12-01	490.68	421.31	10.96	3678381	Upward Expansion	74	68
2023-11-24	456.92	415.98	4.63	2244387	Deceleration	46	38
2023-11-17	470.29	412.40	9.05	3895200	Deceleration	53	31
2023-11-10	446.38	408.74	6.30	2779105	Deceleration	33	17
2023-11-03	440.00	406.05	6.54	4549483	Deceleration	14	18
2023-10-27	388.84	402.84	0.00	4625381	Deceleration	-10	24
2023-10-20	396.04	402.64	-0.35	6403483	Deceleration	-5	16
2023-10-13	422.01	401.39	4.06	2566870	Deceleration	15	17

Price vs TrendAbove+9.6%

Trend directionRising+7.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+39.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-12.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+7.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-5.3%

Price momentumPositive+48.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.82×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

15 / ±100

-11.5 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

12 /100

-5.0 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

URI Directional State ↗ URI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance55

Rotation Up24

Upward Expansion42

Deceleration83

Rotation Down34

Downward Expansion34

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 47%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 10%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-10-02	2026-10-02	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-22	2026-09-25	Established	+11.6%
Rotation Up	2026-04-24	2026-05-15	New	-1.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-04-17	Developing	+12.1%
Balance	2026-02-06	2026-03-13	Developing	-17.9%
Rotation Up	2026-01-23	2026-01-30	New	-14.9%
Deceleration	2026-01-02	2026-01-16	New	+9.0%
Rotation Down	2025-11-28	2025-12-26	Developing	+1.6%
Deceleration	2025-11-07	2025-11-21	New	-5.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-10-31	Established	+8.0%
Rotation Up	2025-06-13	2025-07-11	Developing	+17.2%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-06-06	New	+0.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-07	2025-05-16	Developing	+15.7%
Balance	2025-02-07	2025-02-28	New	-13.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing1

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution72

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 71/100
Current Relative Strength: 7.01
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +48.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +30.3%
Industrials regime cohort: 49th percentile47 in cohort

Test URI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.46×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.82×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore URI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 1,041.55falling

Slow Activity USD 1,044.18rising

Trend Reference USD 986.68+9.6% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 772.58+39.9% close margin

Structural low USD 722.41shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +7.9%

Annualized volatility +40.0%

From structural high -8.2%

From structural low +54.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	+0.0%-14.9% to +26.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+0.0%	+43.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+7.5%-31.7% to +33.1%	+77.8%	+77.8%	+7.2%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+16.5%-27.6% to +42.0%	+85.7%	+85.7%	+9.8%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+17.4%-21.6% to +59.7%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+3.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

URI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map