Weekly structural research · BUE · Consumer Cyclical

PATA Stage Analysis

Sociedad Anónima Importadora y Exportadora de la Patagonia

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close ARS 1,170.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^MERV
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
Direction -64−100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 48/100directional strength
Maturity 10/100lifecycle context
Confidence 94/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation
Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -6.0%ARS 1,244.56 · weakening
Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values · 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-091,170.001,262.50-7.4738967Downward Expansion-6448
2026-10-021,190.001,263.33-4.4621839Downward Expansion-5933
2026-09-251,200.001,261.67-8.4025054Rotation Down-4625
2026-09-181,225.001,260.83-11.1822393Rotation Down-1212
2026-09-111,240.001,260.33-12.9931525Rotation Down-2829
2026-09-041,240.001,262.17-12.307824Rotation Down-3353
2026-08-281,215.001,266.33-12.657223Rotation Down-3762
2026-08-211,155.001,271.00-15.525995Rotation Down-4060
2026-08-141,185.001,278.33-14.886925Balance-3447
2026-08-071,230.001,283.67-16.153947Balance-2224
2026-07-311,265.001,291.00-19.552358Balance-1115
2026-07-241,265.001,298.83-19.914586Balance-57
2026-07-171,300.001,307.33-16.172948Balance97
2026-07-101,310.001,313.17-18.25820Rotation Up2318
2026-07-031,370.001,319.50-13.103179Rotation Up3438
2026-06-261,305.001,326.67-15.754571Rotation Up1633
2026-06-191,360.001,336.67-17.312916Balance2031
2026-06-121,365.001,342.33-19.2124043Balance-015
2026-06-051,350.001,354.00-13.947691Balance-57
2026-05-291,375.001,354.50-15.1815185Downward Expansion-98
2026-05-221,205.001,358.00-17.8717182Downward Expansion-5540
2026-05-151,200.001,355.83-14.6421962Balance-5736
2026-05-081,245.001,351.17-14.0541051Balance-4622
2026-05-011,270.001,345.96-14.987957Balance-3215
2026-04-241,230.001,337.94-18.6030486Balance-3720
2026-04-171,315.001,333.07-15.2426735Balance-2919
2026-04-101,290.001,322.24-20.6422174Balance-69
2026-04-031,305.001,314.38-20.5218382Rotation Down-1111
2026-03-271,250.001,308.81-18.9265029Rotation Down-2725
2026-03-201,250.001,302.61-17.5028584Rotation Down-3140
2026-03-131,195.001,299.70-19.2040388Rotation Down-2651
2026-03-061,140.001,300.26-22.9837579Rotation Down-3556
2026-02-271,175.001,302.82-21.7147768Rotation Down-3249
2026-02-201,210.001,305.53-26.4531222Deceleration-3038
2026-02-131,295.001,307.39-20.4958906Deceleration011
2026-02-061,365.001,306.43-21.2944453Deceleration913
2026-01-301,355.001,303.62-27.7175325Deceleration1113
2026-01-231,375.001,298.19-24.6659552Deceleration2716
2026-01-161,345.001,294.07-22.8641136Deceleration2915
2026-01-091,450.001,292.91-21.6137147Deceleration3721
2026-01-021,500.001,290.39-20.3258120Upward Expansion4126
2025-12-261,520.001,284.57-19.3650916Upward Expansion4530
2025-12-191,475.001,280.86-22.99122829Upward Expansion5738
2025-12-121,500.001,279.81-18.2440219Upward Expansion6147
2025-12-051,585.001,279.89-16.2085510Rotation Up6571
2025-11-281,605.001,274.02-15.3099858Rotation Up4064
2025-11-211,530.001,268.80-12.43365521Rotation Up3558
2025-11-141,715.001,269.52-9.92340655Rotation Up4554
2025-11-071,365.001,264.41-25.35176602Downward Expansion2126
2025-10-311,480.001,272.11-23.13369996Downward Expansion213
2025-10-241,140.001,269.41-14.7983343Downward Expansion-4125
2025-10-171,060.001,284.12-17.37137044Downward Expansion-5535
2025-10-101,088.691,301.50-12.5023748Downward Expansion-5842
2025-10-031,029.581,316.44-11.8846188Downward Expansion-6448
2025-09-261,083.761,332.21-6.79110416Downward Expansion-6147
2025-09-19990.171,346.17-9.5391840Downward Expansion-7669
2025-09-121,054.211,369.98-8.0485133Downward Expansion-7162
2025-09-051,137.951,388.70-12.81101404Downward Expansion-6356
2025-08-291,064.061,401.67-18.3573776Downward Expansion-7767
2025-08-221,162.581,420.55-16.5567326Downward Expansion-6645
2025-08-151,211.851,439.60-16.9255838Downward Expansion-6041
2025-08-081,216.771,456.35-21.3277770Downward Expansion-6241
2025-08-011,256.181,476.38-18.7576764Downward Expansion-5639
2025-07-251,266.031,494.61-15.8950296Downward Expansion-5850
2025-07-181,266.031,514.15-11.6349726Downward Expansion-6060
2025-07-111,280.811,535.33-8.0782250Downward Expansion-6264
2025-07-041,192.141,553.23-17.8366364Downward Expansion-7265
2025-06-271,251.251,571.62-13.1590672Downward Expansion-6859
2025-06-201,310.371,595.60-10.4126476Downward Expansion-6251
2025-06-131,374.411,606.11-8.9467043Downward Expansion-5646
2025-06-061,325.151,607.42-13.52119351Downward Expansion-6246
2025-05-301,408.891,604.30-13.1065105Balance-5542
2025-05-231,443.381,597.89-13.5477836Balance-5141
2025-05-161,502.491,586.07-9.0779018Balance-4734
2025-05-091,408.891,573.26-6.6365499Balance-2824
2025-05-021,448.301,562.75-3.4349564Balance-2313
2025-04-251,551.751,553.69-2.2577429Balance-67
2025-04-181,561.611,539.060.4248860Deceleration15
2025-04-111,596.091,527.35-0.81110356Deceleration88
2025-04-041,399.041,516.60-7.4321601Deceleration-2518
2025-03-281,581.311,512.25-7.4853175Deceleration912
2025-03-211,581.311,504.90-9.7428485Deceleration717
2025-03-141,536.971,495.77-8.7854834Deceleration613
2025-03-071,502.491,491.04-8.378014Deceleration310
2025-02-281,502.491,486.16-6.4777665Deceleration511
2025-02-211,704.461,479.01-1.4497392Deceleration2918
2025-02-141,615.791,465.78-7.8260969Deceleration2618
2025-02-071,527.121,453.88-14.3442547Deceleration2518
2025-01-311,630.571,451.26-14.3725756Deceleration3721
2025-01-241,734.021,450.21-9.3533791Upward Expansion4229
2025-01-171,714.321,433.03-8.7930851Upward Expansion4735
2025-01-101,817.771,411.95-13.9638116Upward Expansion6149
2025-01-031,802.991,387.89-13.0029920Upward Expansion6454
2024-12-271,852.251,361.29-6.1928814Upward Expansion6765
2024-12-201,901.511,334.370.0275488Upward Expansion7484
2024-12-131,817.771,305.01-0.7151910Upward Expansion7384
2024-12-061,743.871,278.512.50185105Upward Expansion7182
2024-11-291,970.481,252.2813.11197034Upward Expansion8987
2024-11-221,625.651,218.67-4.25164473Balance7656
2024-11-151,413.821,195.71-10.6589606Balance4928
2024-11-081,231.551,180.17-18.1755281Balance05
2024-11-011,216.771,171.75-15.7069532Rotation Down-1721
2024-10-251,088.691,161.18-24.4435251Rotation Down-2438
2024-10-181,118.251,154.73-20.5658224Deceleration-2033
2024-10-111,093.621,147.11-20.5439981Deceleration-2124
2024-10-041,176.241,140.42-13.0874474Deceleration814
2024-09-271,113.051,129.53-16.2331910Deceleration410
2024-09-201,210.261,121.95-13.5748099Deceleration2914
2024-09-131,273.451,113.67-8.6783856Deceleration3618
2024-09-061,268.591,101.83-3.6265117Deceleration4024
2024-08-301,360.941,092.563.9960234Deceleration5332
2024-08-231,307.471,081.707.5426071Deceleration4228
2024-08-161,394.961,073.1612.7357882Deceleration6036
2024-08-091,356.081,062.7315.1160809Upward Expansion5734
2024-08-021,288.031,051.1821.9260422Upward Expansion5742
2024-07-261,307.471,043.4516.07138882Upward Expansion6364
2024-07-191,258.871,029.3210.6858994Upward Expansion6680
2024-07-121,448.431,014.6417.2886773Upward Expansion7989
2024-07-051,599.10990.4737.46262132Upward Expansion9591
2024-06-281,218.53960.217.0933231Upward Expansion8270
2024-06-211,081.95939.14-2.346733Upward Expansion6556
2024-06-141,096.04922.29-1.2420233Upward Expansion7159
2024-06-071,005.15901.17-5.4918044Upward Expansion5850
2024-05-311,044.52883.33-9.2348975Upward Expansion6554
2024-05-241,020.70864.05-3.3831668Deceleration6247
2024-05-171,022.65845.760.2833563Deceleration6438
2024-05-10957.03827.84-1.3026705Deceleration4127
2024-05-03962.38809.50-3.2825326Deceleration4229
2024-04-26936.62789.977.3821107Deceleration3726
2024-04-19947.80770.0017.8918473Deceleration4027
2024-04-12978.90749.5517.6131948Deceleration4528
2024-04-05899.68727.6811.979970Deceleration2115
2024-03-29895.30708.4212.454570Deceleration2016
2024-03-22889.47689.4011.3227933Deceleration3022
2024-03-15892.87669.9629.2226337Deceleration3424
2024-03-08849.61650.1332.5811198Deceleration3626
2024-03-01885.58629.9132.8527178Deceleration4334
2024-02-23961.89608.8039.3826845Upward Expansion4948
2024-02-16918.15585.2240.0312237Upward Expansion5356
2024-02-09990.57563.1244.5832961Upward Expansion6666
2024-02-021,035.29538.1931.5045579Upward Expansion6868
2024-01-261,051.32511.7041.7940429Upward Expansion7384
2024-01-191,081.95484.8757.9441259Upward Expansion8694
2024-01-121,009.52457.4370.4560289Upward Expansion8494
2024-01-051,056.19432.2877.9357545Upward Expansion9798
2023-12-29883.64403.3672.2544524Upward Expansion9296
2023-12-22818.51380.0259.1451985Upward Expansion9295
2023-12-15723.24358.8546.1351175Upward Expansion8987
2023-12-08691.16340.7138.6747666Upward Expansion9377
2023-12-01586.66322.9528.6743009Upward Expansion8673
2023-11-24576.45308.1420.9448864Upward Expansion9275
2023-11-17462.23293.2538.9235499Upward Expansion6867
2023-11-10470.01281.9039.3514275Upward Expansion7182
2023-11-03466.12270.0644.5038045Upward Expansion7489
2023-10-27471.95258.3543.8125477Upward Expansion8694
2023-10-20485.18246.4722.1727401Upward Expansion9796
Price vs TrendBelow-7.3%
Trend directionFalling-2.2%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-6.0%
Fair Value directionMoving away-18.1%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-7.5%
Relative strength directionImproving+10.8%
Price momentumNegative-9.3%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.11×
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-64 / ±100

-36.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

48 /100

+19.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance34
Rotation Up18
Upward Expansion8
Deceleration44
Rotation Down54
Downward Expansion79

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 28%Deceleration 27%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 17%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-10-022026-10-09New-1.7%
Rotation Down2026-08-212026-09-25Developing+3.9%
Balance2026-07-172026-08-14Developing-8.8%
Rotation Up2026-06-262026-07-10New+0.4%
Balance2026-06-052026-06-19New+0.7%
Downward Expansion2026-05-222026-05-29New+14.1%
Balance2026-04-102026-05-15Developing-7.0%
Rotation Down2026-02-272026-04-03Developing+11.1%
Deceleration2026-01-092026-02-20Developing-16.6%
Upward Expansion2025-12-122026-01-02New+0.0%
Rotation Up2025-11-142025-12-05New-7.6%
Downward Expansion2025-06-062025-11-07Established+3.0%
Balance2025-04-252025-05-30Developing-9.2%
Deceleration2025-01-312025-04-18Developing-4.2%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 · Basing58
Stage 2 · Advancing2
Stage 3 · Distribution34
Stage 4 · Declining98

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MERV

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
91/100
Current Relative Strength
-7.47
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-9.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-3.6%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort
38th percentile8 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume3.25×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.11×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity ARS 1,193.33falling
Slow Activity ARS 1,247.83falling
Trend Reference ARS 1,262.50-7.3% close margin
Current Fair Value ARS 1,244.56-6.0% close margin
Structural low ARS 1,140.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.3%
Annualized volatility +27.8%
From structural high -39.7%
From structural low +17.0%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^MERV Regime survived Read
Near term7+5.2%-15.3% to +34.2%+71.4%+28.6%-2.8%+71.4%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate3-4.1%-14.1% to +39.3%+33.3%+66.7%-6.7%+33.3%Too little matched history
Extended1+19.6%+19.6% to +19.6%+100.0%+0.0%-21.6%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle1+1.9%+1.9% to +1.9%+100.0%+0.0%-41.1%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context