Weekly structural research ยท ASX ยท Consumer Cyclical

GYG Stage Analysis

Guzman y Gomez (Holdings) Ltd

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 26.48Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Deceleration ยท Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction 52โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 36/100directional strength
Maturity 72/100lifecycle context
Confidence 96/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -5.5%AUD 28.01 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 121 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-0926.4821.6223.081399129Deceleration5236
2026-10-0225.1221.3417.391356683Upward Expansion4433
2026-09-2524.5021.1614.711938971Upward Expansion5146
2026-09-1825.6120.9819.002301014Upward Expansion6563
2026-09-1125.1220.7116.621082321Upward Expansion6882
2026-09-0427.6220.5124.51132526Upward Expansion8293
2026-08-2827.7520.2724.32731373Upward Expansion8995
2026-08-2126.2820.0818.431182253Upward Expansion8895
2026-08-1424.1919.978.59172962Upward Expansion7185
2026-08-0724.8719.899.47202109Upward Expansion8487
2026-07-3124.9519.7512.87293908Rotation Up8882
2026-07-2421.6419.63-0.11260745Rotation Up3959
2026-07-1721.5019.65-1.54368025Rotation Up3955
2026-07-1020.9219.66-4.79265368Balance3145
2026-07-0321.6019.66-2.71186586Balance2832
2026-06-2620.2719.69-8.41254935Balance-26
2026-06-1918.8719.79-15.932114088Balance-159
2026-06-1219.4019.89-14.15361440Balance-1210
2026-06-0518.7220.04-16.172389543Balance-3014
2026-05-2919.6620.24-13.84986291Balance-1711
2026-05-2219.8120.47-13.273199986Downward Expansion-3619
2026-05-1517.0020.66-26.121721158Downward Expansion-5729
2026-05-0818.5020.94-21.731341140Downward Expansion-2919
2026-05-0119.2621.17-19.391047435Downward Expansion-2523
2026-04-2419.2821.40-20.721115074Downward Expansion-3318
2026-04-1720.3221.59-19.011583097Downward Expansion-3826
2026-04-1020.6821.75-18.662343470Downward Expansion-5342
2026-04-0315.2021.90-38.401491933Downward Expansion-7976
2026-03-2716.5222.17-33.542103242Downward Expansion-7358
2026-03-2016.9322.45-32.111714505Downward Expansion-7558
2026-03-1318.0522.67-30.231948383Downward Expansion-7068
2026-03-0619.6722.99-26.98914976Downward Expansion-6171
2026-02-2719.2223.27-32.133026606Downward Expansion-6274
2026-02-2017.4623.54-38.371355965Downward Expansion-8176
2026-02-1319.2323.86-31.991345808Downward Expansion-7346
2026-02-0620.2224.14-27.911169175Downward Expansion-6837
2026-01-3022.0924.36-23.681424022Downward Expansion-4127
2026-01-2323.2024.55-20.74772654Downward Expansion-4433
2026-01-1621.6324.68-27.35501028Downward Expansion-5952
2026-01-0920.6924.93-30.00563488Downward Expansion-7062
2026-01-0221.4925.20-28.30404413Downward Expansion-6048
2025-12-2622.0325.46-27.74398957Downward Expansion-5854
2025-12-1921.97โ€”โ€”1549439Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-1220.96โ€”โ€”1532825Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-0522.22โ€”โ€”1190706Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2823.52โ€”โ€”1822251Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2121.80โ€”โ€”3300449Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-1423.76โ€”โ€”1016667Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-0724.74โ€”โ€”1457251Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-3126.61โ€”โ€”1298153Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-2425.61โ€”โ€”1346236Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1725.25โ€”โ€”1566858Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1025.59โ€”โ€”2769023Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-0326.14โ€”โ€”1656915Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-2624.77โ€”โ€”3128160Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1925.33โ€”โ€”6095749Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1224.99โ€”โ€”1239451Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-0523.41โ€”โ€”2080322Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2925.01โ€”โ€”4975813Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2223.49โ€”โ€”3410420Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-1527.63โ€”โ€”1477506Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0828.17โ€”โ€”811440Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0127.28โ€”โ€”730432Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-2527.10โ€”โ€”845653Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1827.36โ€”โ€”1588891Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1127.08โ€”โ€”1128341Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-0427.67โ€”โ€”1149463Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2727.25โ€”โ€”1178779Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2028.96โ€”โ€”1522420Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-1328.78โ€”โ€”1314782Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-0629.20โ€”โ€”1546134Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-3030.11โ€”โ€”1661622Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-2331.02โ€”โ€”743152Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-1632.49โ€”โ€”865051Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0932.03โ€”โ€”1604656Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0231.36โ€”โ€”746367Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-2532.59โ€”โ€”381811Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1831.21โ€”โ€”562469Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1132.96โ€”โ€”3940211Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-0430.72โ€”โ€”1327911Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2831.97โ€”โ€”1071587Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2133.90โ€”โ€”1538614Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-1433.08โ€”โ€”2062435Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-0732.18โ€”โ€”1178039Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2834.29โ€”โ€”1540198Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2138.23โ€”โ€”1572342Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-1440.43โ€”โ€”1117026Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-0738.83โ€”โ€”997574Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-3139.39โ€”โ€”398790Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-2439.45โ€”โ€”284363Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1739.98โ€”โ€”492387Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1038.81โ€”โ€”902950Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-0339.60โ€”โ€”260047Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2741.39โ€”โ€”173179Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2040.49โ€”โ€”4057007Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-1342.50โ€”โ€”705096Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-0642.96โ€”โ€”850462Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2942.64โ€”โ€”1774868Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2237.84โ€”โ€”400927Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-1536.49โ€”โ€”523601Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0835.44โ€”โ€”557974Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0136.37โ€”โ€”567309Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-2539.53โ€”โ€”1157296Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1836.97โ€”โ€”807464Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1138.12โ€”โ€”651549Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-0437.74โ€”โ€”1057565Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2739.58โ€”โ€”2951257Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2039.69โ€”โ€”4566048Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-1337.96โ€”โ€”1890197Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-0638.15โ€”โ€”680470Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-3035.18โ€”โ€”1173734Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-2334.40โ€”โ€”353596Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-1632.79โ€”โ€”825268Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0929.73โ€”โ€”530378Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0229.11โ€”โ€”2987406Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-2627.42โ€”โ€”362641Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1926.95โ€”โ€”253256Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1226.73โ€”โ€”785214Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-0527.50โ€”โ€”3584197Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2827.17โ€”โ€”4200847Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2128.74โ€”โ€”4011302Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+22.5%
Trend directionRising+9.5%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-5.5%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+20.8%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+23.1%
Relative strength directionImproving+27.9%
Price momentumPositive+28.0%
Volume balanceDemand-led2.24ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

52 / ยฑ100

-15.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

36 /100

-46.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance27
Rotation Up36
Upward Expansion65
Deceleration88
Rotation Down27
Downward Expansion17

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-06-21 to 2026-10-09 ยท 42 classified observations out of 121 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 2%Downward Expansion 52%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Deceleration2026-10-092026-10-09New+0.0%
Upward Expansion2026-08-072026-10-02Developing+1.0%
Rotation Up2026-07-172026-07-31New+16.0%
Balance2026-05-292026-07-10Developing+6.4%
Downward Expansion2025-12-262026-05-22Established-10.1%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing43
Stage 2 ยท Advancing100
Stage 3 ยท Distribution28
Stage 4 ยท Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 1 ยท Stage 1C ยท Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
97/100
Current Relative Strength
23.08
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+28.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+30.8%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort
100th percentile16 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.56ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.24ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity AUD 25.51falling
Slow Activity AUD 23.35rising
Trend Reference AUD 21.62+22.5% close margin
Current Fair Value AUD 28.01-5.5% close margin
Structural low AUD 15.90shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +7.5%
Annualized volatility +43.3%
From structural high -9.4%
From structural low +75.8%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^AXJO Regime survived Read
Near term0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Intermediate0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context