Weekly structural research · JPX · Financial Services

8630 Stage Analysis

Sompo Holdings, Inc.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close JPY 6,523.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 28−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 19/100directional strength

Maturity 63/100lifecycle context

Confidence 75/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +54.0%JPY 4,236.11 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	6,523.00	6,337.38	-4.74	12958100	Deceleration	28	19
2026-09-25	6,788.30	6,317.73	2.03	5428500	Deceleration	38	26
2026-09-18	6,791.26	6,297.08	4.24	11896700	Deceleration	38	26
2026-09-11	6,675.95	6,265.10	4.15	11287700	Deceleration	40	27
2026-09-04	6,756.77	6,239.00	3.80	10673300	Upward Expansion	47	40
2026-08-28	6,761.69	6,205.01	1.63	1816900	Upward Expansion	61	55
2026-08-21	6,757.00	6,154.66	2.04	2674900	Upward Expansion	65	78
2026-08-14	7,011.00	6,111.51	1.61	2312600	Upward Expansion	67	86
2026-08-07	7,068.00	6,066.05	7.19	1712500	Upward Expansion	75	87
2026-07-31	7,113.00	6,015.92	9.92	3011300	Upward Expansion	81	88
2026-07-24	7,051.00	5,954.51	8.60	2304800	Upward Expansion	86	86
2026-07-17	6,630.00	5,894.09	2.97	3770500	Upward Expansion	73	76
2026-07-10	6,513.00	5,846.38	-5.40	3138600	Upward Expansion	70	75
2026-07-03	6,635.00	5,800.50	-5.42	2511100	Upward Expansion	81	76
2026-06-26	6,126.00	5,744.12	-12.34	2058300	Upward Expansion	54	56
2026-06-19	6,342.00	5,703.01	-11.94	2403400	Deceleration	69	57
2026-06-12	6,149.00	5,657.16	-8.22	2988000	Deceleration	58	30
2026-06-05	5,898.00	5,606.45	-13.01	2221700	Deceleration	35	20
2026-05-29	5,958.00	5,562.50	-12.18	26185200	Deceleration	29	16
2026-05-22	5,676.00	5,518.91	-12.75	25416100	Deceleration	25	12
2026-05-15	6,100.00	5,481.60	-3.65	11164300	Deceleration	48	23
2026-05-08	5,762.00	5,427.98	-11.26	6315500	Deceleration	32	18
2026-05-01	5,705.00	5,394.59	-7.95	9390600	Upward Expansion	37	21
2026-04-24	5,837.00	5,351.04	-6.55	10230200	Upward Expansion	43	29
2026-04-17	5,898.00	5,306.52	-4.05	9281100	Upward Expansion	55	39
2026-04-10	5,976.00	5,261.71	-0.60	10509500	Upward Expansion	57	41
2026-04-03	6,017.00	5,216.41	6.90	12498800	Upward Expansion	61	41
2026-03-27	6,065.00	5,170.46	7.02	14496800	Upward Expansion	68	47
2026-03-20	5,779.53	5,122.39	1.80	8858200	Upward Expansion	60	51
2026-03-13	5,757.80	5,082.57	0.40	12117800	Upward Expansion	64	58
2026-03-06	5,933.62	5,045.64	-0.07	14780300	Upward Expansion	66	77
2026-02-27	6,168.72	5,000.39	-2.04	12380100	Upward Expansion	86	91
2026-02-20	5,831.88	4,941.41	-4.24	10514000	Upward Expansion	75	68
2026-02-13	5,893.13	4,890.22	-3.54	10953800	Upward Expansion	83	66
2026-02-06	5,737.06	4,833.89	-1.48	12090800	Upward Expansion	81	65
2026-01-30	5,251.07	4,778.57	-8.26	13752400	Upward Expansion	65	62
2026-01-23	5,462.45	4,741.56	-5.61	9156600	Upward Expansion	67	85
2026-01-16	5,647.17	4,700.33	-2.58	8876900	Upward Expansion	87	94
2026-01-09	5,564.19	4,652.58	-0.30	11060600	Upward Expansion	88	93
2026-01-02	5,270.82	4,607.33	-2.39	2605100	Upward Expansion	74	83
2025-12-26	5,238.22	4,572.87	-3.68	6025400	Upward Expansion	76	81
2025-12-19	5,198.71	4,540.37	-1.93	11388100	Upward Expansion	78	81
2025-12-12	5,136.48	4,503.13	-5.57	11965200	Upward Expansion	79	80
2025-12-05	4,943.86	4,485.53	-8.51	11680700	Upward Expansion	69	70
2025-11-28	4,892.50	4,475.11	-9.07	9733800	Upward Expansion	67	63
2025-11-21	4,966.58	4,458.77	-4.63	28702100	Upward Expansion	73	58
2025-11-14	4,627.77	4,441.71	-14.14	8966500	Deceleration	51	28
2025-11-07	4,579.37	4,434.03	-14.76	10110200	Deceleration	44	24
2025-10-31	4,650.49	4,418.73	-16.86	16914600	Deceleration	53	31
2025-10-24	4,556.65	4,404.17	-13.29	10624400	Deceleration	33	18
2025-10-17	4,491.46	4,405.53	-11.26	11743900	Deceleration	33	17
2025-10-10	4,760.14	4,404.04	-6.72	15969900	Deceleration	55	28
2025-10-03	4,398.61	4,389.77	-9.13	11766300	Upward Expansion	32	17
2025-09-26	4,501.34	4,390.13	-5.89	12123000	Upward Expansion	44	30
2025-09-19	4,553.81	4,381.16	-3.78	12540000	Upward Expansion	58	41
2025-09-12	4,616.98	4,369.69	-1.50	11311200	Upward Expansion	62	58
2025-09-05	4,638.36	4,354.32	3.36	10050700	Upward Expansion	67	72
2025-08-29	4,622.81	4,336.74	4.16	15017500	Upward Expansion	69	75
2025-08-22	4,584.91	4,321.40	3.99	10829300	Upward Expansion	67	73
2025-08-15	4,650.02	4,303.79	4.17	12203900	Balance	72	63
2025-08-08	4,576.16	4,281.23	6.80	13023600	Balance	56	36
2025-08-01	4,399.30	4,256.38	5.84	9359900	Balance	12	8
2025-07-25	4,296.29	4,241.06	2.28	10773100	Balance	-7	13
2025-07-18	4,203.00	4,231.19	4.64	11308200	Balance	-24	27
2025-07-11	4,077.64	4,221.49	2.66	13300500	Balance	-25	32
2025-07-04	4,140.80	4,220.14	4.14	16037800	Balance	-18	24
2025-06-27	4,225.35	4,212.52	5.87	21652400	Balance	7	12
2025-06-20	4,214.66	4,197.48	10.91	14794300	Balance	8	13
2025-06-13	4,206.88	4,180.16	13.05	17878400	Balance	6	16
2025-06-06	4,237.01	4,149.51	14.85	16174800	Balance	13	11
2025-05-30	4,263.25	4,119.07	15.59	21126700	Upward Expansion	33	18
2025-05-23	4,081.52	4,081.19	13.76	25584000	Upward Expansion	37	23
2025-05-16	4,608.23	4,046.75	27.31	10715600	Upward Expansion	64	50
2025-05-09	4,631.56	3,998.80	30.00	9045700	Upward Expansion	69	44
2025-05-02	4,402.21	3,950.33	26.99	10201000	Upward Expansion	45	27
2025-04-25	4,454.69	3,907.46	33.74	11003000	Upward Expansion	50	27
2025-04-18	4,397.35	3,863.77	37.11	9247400	Upward Expansion	50	31
2025-04-11	4,120.39	3,820.31	34.25	21854400	Upward Expansion	46	34
2025-04-04	4,213.69	3,784.54	37.85	19286300	Upward Expansion	63	53
2025-03-28	4,597.54	3,747.86	38.30	13050000	Upward Expansion	83	73
2025-03-21	4,446.71	3,702.11	33.20	12715900	Upward Expansion	77	66
2025-03-14	4,331.93	3,657.97	33.27	16852600	Upward Expansion	70	63
2025-03-07	4,409.41	3,619.69	37.61	16157800	Upward Expansion	84	77
2025-02-28	4,232.46	3,565.44	32.49	17329500	Upward Expansion	73	67
2025-02-21	4,209.50	3,518.88	27.54	16494800	Upward Expansion	75	83
2025-02-14	4,155.94	3,478.92	25.84	10165300	Upward Expansion	70	69
2025-02-07	4,110.98	3,447.05	26.68	12679100	Upward Expansion	69	62
2025-01-31	4,162.63	3,416.01	26.92	14702700	Upward Expansion	77	63
2025-01-24	4,056.46	3,385.36	23.73	14728100	Upward Expansion	71	58
2025-01-17	3,973.25	3,357.80	26.95	14147600	Upward Expansion	67	59
2025-01-10	3,830.73	3,327.09	21.19	15177900	Upward Expansion	63	61
2025-01-03	3,939.77	3,302.36	23.45	1854200	Upward Expansion	66	77
2024-12-27	4,000.03	3,275.40	25.14	7004900	Upward Expansion	73	89
2024-12-20	3,912.03	3,246.28	28.49	18226600	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-12-13	4,037.33	3,212.25	31.26	14698100	Upward Expansion	89	96
2024-12-06	3,912.03	3,176.28	29.65	18522900	Upward Expansion	90	95
2024-11-29	3,774.30	3,145.10	29.01	21182500	Upward Expansion	86	88
2024-11-22	3,694.91	3,116.45	27.19	26857600	Upward Expansion	86	78
2024-11-15	3,287.45	3,089.29	13.09	10409700	Balance	61	48
2024-11-08	3,323.79	3,074.39	12.61	14543500	Balance	65	39
2024-11-01	3,126.76	3,063.58	10.60	17740200	Balance	36	16
2024-10-25	3,048.33	3,058.61	8.74	8273100	Balance	39	17
2024-10-18	3,169.80	3,057.32	10.45	10170500	Balance	48	28
2024-10-11	3,177.45	3,050.00	9.50	14287000	Balance	48	22
2024-10-04	3,116.24	3,037.24	10.65	14085600	Balance	42	17
2024-09-27	3,143.97	3,030.52	8.83	10960400	Balance	44	19
2024-09-20	3,093.43	3,017.57	13.56	12706800	Balance	33	20
2024-09-13	3,047.35	3,004.33	15.92	12418100	Balance	33	22
2024-09-06	3,113.17	2,993.24	19.81	13522000	Balance	36	26
2024-08-30	3,225.06	2,969.16	17.68	17225000	Balance	53	25
2024-08-23	3,122.57	2,939.99	15.53	10629100	Balance	23	15
2024-08-16	3,183.69	2,912.96	19.42	11240600	Balance	25	20
2024-08-09	2,781.73	2,884.75	14.17	24649100	Balance	-3	16
2024-08-02	2,835.80	2,867.03	14.20	16444900	Upward Expansion	14	12
2024-07-26	3,010.68	2,845.33	16.35	11964400	Upward Expansion	53	35
2024-07-19	3,199.67	2,815.91	16.98	9595300	Upward Expansion	61	50
2024-07-12	3,179.93	2,778.52	13.71	17403400	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-07-05	3,242.93	2,742.78	17.33	14872500	Upward Expansion	72	55
2024-06-28	3,229.76	2,707.73	21.41	14066500	Upward Expansion	74	56
2024-06-21	3,052.06	2,670.38	18.44	14687500	Upward Expansion	61	51
2024-06-14	3,088.72	2,638.42	19.85	17219500	Upward Expansion	65	52
2024-06-07	3,131.04	2,601.69	22.67	21509300	Upward Expansion	73	55
2024-05-31	3,126.33	2,564.10	23.93	26321500	Upward Expansion	76	55
2024-05-24	2,891.27	2,527.75	14.95	24851100	Upward Expansion	47	41
2024-05-17	2,958.03	2,497.52	17.78	13811400	Upward Expansion	54	47
2024-05-10	2,976.83	2,464.45	20.88	10288800	Upward Expansion	55	44
2024-05-03	2,914.78	2,430.69	19.02	5902100	Upward Expansion	50	46
2024-04-26	2,879.99	2,397.46	19.16	11188900	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-04-19	2,840.50	2,367.63	20.88	13177800	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-04-12	2,999.40	2,341.76	20.38	13462200	Upward Expansion	71	68
2024-04-05	2,977.78	2,308.21	21.84	16935100	Upward Expansion	72	68
2024-03-29	3,009.74	2,274.33	19.65	13404000	Upward Expansion	82	80
2024-03-22	2,950.08	2,238.92	16.43	14723100	Upward Expansion	83	88
2024-03-15	2,794.55	2,203.82	17.06	19335000	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-03-08	2,914.90	2,172.50	19.63	19415100	Upward Expansion	91	97
2024-03-01	2,755.36	2,138.01	12.89	20674500	Upward Expansion	86	94
2024-02-23	2,696.11	2,105.37	13.02	16258500	Upward Expansion	90	95
2024-02-16	2,714.62	2,078.71	15.85	29649600	Upward Expansion	96	96
2024-02-09	2,390.92	2,053.11	6.77	15940200	Upward Expansion	78	87
2024-02-02	2,349.88	2,037.73	7.27	13224600	Upward Expansion	76	84
2024-01-26	2,311.61	2,025.37	6.95	17944500	Upward Expansion	73	80
2024-01-19	2,337.53	2,013.32	7.60	16023600	Upward Expansion	82	78
2024-01-12	2,250.20	2,000.92	4.76	14063700	Upward Expansion	75	57
2024-01-05	2,184.78	1,990.99	8.37	6237600	Upward Expansion	68	45
2023-12-29	2,128.00	1,980.73	5.31	15206100	Upward Expansion	61	44
2023-12-22	2,078.01	1,969.97	3.67	15485100	Upward Expansion	58	53
2023-12-15	2,107.64	1,959.78	5.66	20279400	Upward Expansion	61	65
2023-12-08	2,191.57	1,950.17	12.24	24593700	Upward Expansion	79	72
2023-12-01	2,109.18	1,934.56	4.66	18699000	Upward Expansion	71	59
2023-11-24	2,093.13	1,921.51	3.37	18208800	Upward Expansion	70	53
2023-11-17	1,986.98	1,908.62	-1.75	14935800	Upward Expansion	51	34
2023-11-10	2,003.34	1,898.12	1.98	14160900	Upward Expansion	53	34
2023-11-03	2,035.74	1,885.40	5.50	23873400	Deceleration	63	36
2023-10-27	1,984.51	1,870.11	5.91	13403100	Deceleration	40	21
2023-10-20	1,965.69	1,856.81	3.94	16203600	Upward Expansion	37	21
2023-10-13	1,964.15	1,843.43	0.37	19176900	Upward Expansion	52	34

Price vs TrendAbove+2.9%

Trend directionRising+6.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+54.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-19.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-4.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.7%

Price momentumPositive+8.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.45×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

28 / ±100

-19.1 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

19 /100

-21.4 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

8630 Directional State ↗ 8630 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance46

Rotation Up19

Upward Expansion53

Deceleration94

Rotation Down32

Downward Expansion22

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Upward Expansion 71%Deceleration 12%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-11	2026-10-02	New	-2.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-09-04	Developing	+10.3%
Deceleration	2026-05-08	2026-06-19	Developing	+10.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-05-01	Established	+14.9%
Deceleration	2025-10-10	2025-11-14	Developing	-2.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-22	2025-10-03	Developing	-4.1%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-08-15	Developing	+9.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-22	2025-05-30	Extended	+15.4%
Balance	2024-08-09	2024-11-15	Established	+18.2%
Upward Expansion	2023-11-10	2024-08-02	Extended	+41.6%
Deceleration	2023-10-27	2023-11-03	New	+2.6%
Upward Expansion	2023-09-15	2023-10-20	Developing	-1.4%
Deceleration	2023-08-11	2023-09-08	Developing	+4.3%
Upward Expansion	2023-06-16	2023-08-04	Developing	-9.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing15

Stage 2 · Advancing71

Stage 3 · Distribution70

Stage 4 · Declining29

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 19/100
Current Relative Strength: -4.74
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +8.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -20.2%
Financial Services regime cohort: 32th percentile19 in cohort

Test 8630 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.89×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.45×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 8630 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 6,683.38falling

Slow Activity JPY 6,552.75rising

Trend Reference JPY 6,337.38+2.9% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 4,236.11+54.0% close margin

Structural low JPY 5,523.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +3.7%

Annualized volatility +24.4%

From structural high -9.6%

From structural low +47.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	+3.7%-3.8% to +12.5%	+68.8%	+68.8%	+3.3%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+11.5%-9.8% to +24.3%	+85.7%	+85.7%	+9.6%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+19.3%+9.6% to +27.2%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+13.5%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	2	+25.3%+19.9% to +30.8%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+16.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

8630 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map