Weekly structural research · GER · Real Estate

ADJ Stage Analysis

Adler Group S.A.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 0.0998Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -74−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 84/100directional strength

Maturity 76/100lifecycle context

Confidence 84/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -57.4%EUR 0.2344 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	0.0998	0.1454	-42.45	179706	Downward Expansion	-74	84
2026-09-25	0.102	0.1482	-42.30	143113	Downward Expansion	-77	89
2026-09-18	0.1045	0.1512	-41.37	362263	Downward Expansion	-80	89
2026-09-11	0.1045	0.1547	-42.74	656292	Downward Expansion	-87	86
2026-09-04	0.113	0.1577	-39.93	51285	Downward Expansion	-86	75
2026-08-28	0.1315	0.1598	-32.23	32747	Downward Expansion	-67	51
2026-08-21	0.133	0.1617	-31.08	5866	Downward Expansion	-66	47
2026-08-14	0.1395	0.1639	-29.15	14350	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2026-08-07	0.1345	0.1657	-32.11	73076	Downward Expansion	-68	53
2026-07-31	0.141	0.168	-27.50	22308	Downward Expansion	-64	54
2026-07-24	0.138	0.1705	-28.06	33735	Downward Expansion	-66	56
2026-07-17	0.135	0.1725	-29.39	21132	Downward Expansion	-75	82
2026-07-10	0.1405	0.1744	-27.86	189	Downward Expansion	-69	80
2026-07-03	0.138	0.1765	-31.70	25992	Downward Expansion	-75	83
2026-06-26	0.145	0.1787	-25.77	15490	Downward Expansion	-70	79
2026-06-19	0.144	0.1811	-27.92	5108	Downward Expansion	-72	70
2026-06-12	0.1475	0.1835	-25.99	10528	Downward Expansion	-69	60
2026-06-05	0.1515	0.1862	-25.18	87651	Downward Expansion	-65	48
2026-05-29	0.1675	0.1876	-19.21	324952	Downward Expansion	-49	30
2026-05-22	0.163	0.1884	-21.44	644224	Downward Expansion	-55	33
2026-05-15	0.165	0.1895	-18.04	235580	Downward Expansion	-54	30
2026-05-08	0.1695	0.1904	-18.04	303161	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2026-05-01	0.1715	0.1916	-17.38	391311	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2026-04-24	0.169	0.1927	-18.51	208747	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2026-04-17	0.1655	0.1938	-22.49	219724	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2026-04-10	0.166	0.1954	-19.84	88439	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2026-04-03	0.1705	0.1966	-16.02	727764	Downward Expansion	-58	52
2026-03-27	0.17	0.1976	-13.60	1603319	Downward Expansion	-56	51
2026-03-20	0.161	0.1992	-18.93	936726	Balance	-65	50
2026-03-13	0.182	0.2006	-13.00	106678	Balance	-51	24
2026-03-06	0.183	0.2022	-13.60	381388	Balance	-51	21
2026-02-27	0.192	0.2028	-16.22	1025245	Balance	-47	21
2026-02-20	0.208	0.2029	-10.39	939019	Balance	-39	24
2026-02-13	0.1965	0.2028	-15.22	578333	Balance	-52	40
2026-02-06	0.175	0.2036	-24.82	491674	Balance	-62	50
2026-01-30	0.1875	0.2052	-20.09	1487774	Balance	-55	33
2026-01-23	0.199	0.2065	-17.64	1369811	Balance	-45	18
2026-01-16	0.195	0.2078	-21.65	1007576	Balance	-50	21
2026-01-09	0.202	0.2096	-19.93	366064	Balance	-37	18
2026-01-02	0.216	0.2112	-13.38	326482	Balance	-22	14
2025-12-26	0.1985	0.2123	-20.97	197678	Balance	-38	25
2025-12-19	0.192	0.2142	-24.72	923955	Balance	-44	23
2025-12-12	0.203	0.2158	-21.37	731092	Balance	-19	11
2025-12-05	0.205	0.2183	-21.18	357416	Balance	-12	18
2025-11-28	0.216	0.2189	-17.58	550911	Balance	-9	16
2025-11-21	0.217	0.2191	-15.89	197093	Downward Expansion	-21	14
2025-11-14	0.23	0.219	-14.93	1200915	Downward Expansion	-16	10
2025-11-07	0.192	0.2181	-29.00	328768	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2025-10-31	0.193	0.2186	-30.95	460443	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2025-10-24	0.1955	0.2194	-31.91	314570	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2025-10-17	0.192	0.2206	-33.18	393972	Downward Expansion	-61	39
2025-10-10	0.205	0.2216	-31.43	335388	Downward Expansion	-50	28
2025-10-03	0.203	0.2229	-33.55	500924	Downward Expansion	-53	31
2025-09-26	0.202	0.2255	-32.59	543195	Downward Expansion	-56	33
2025-09-19	0.213	0.2294	-29.01	768009	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2025-09-12	0.202	0.2328	-32.98	665257	Downward Expansion	-60	36
2025-09-05	0.201	0.2364	-33.24	392589	Downward Expansion	-52	28
2025-08-29	0.218	0.2404	-28.70	714583	Downward Expansion	-44	27
2025-08-22	0.205	0.244	-34.26	456792	Downward Expansion	-62	45
2025-08-15	0.23	0.2478	-26.37	632085	Downward Expansion	-58	49
2025-08-08	0.20	0.2509	-35.46	594053	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2025-08-01	0.195	0.2558	-35.39	259497	Downward Expansion	-69	62
2025-07-25	0.205	0.2605	-34.36	968983	Balance	-64	54
2025-07-18	0.221	0.2654	-29.47	398696	Balance	-45	38
2025-07-11	0.222	0.2693	-29.03	764201	Balance	-44	31
2025-07-04	0.226	0.2729	-26.25	404618	Balance	-41	22
2025-06-27	0.238	0.2772	-23.04	199101	Balance	-31	15
2025-06-20	0.249	0.2812	-17.00	208797	Balance	-17	11
2025-06-13	0.25	0.284	-17.04	361145	Balance	-17	11
2025-06-06	0.25	0.2869	-19.52	395612	Downward Expansion	-25	19
2025-05-30	0.257	0.2902	-16.15	531948	Downward Expansion	-28	19
2025-05-23	0.24	0.2928	-20.36	435764	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2025-05-16	0.276	0.2972	-8.76	1019637	Downward Expansion	-36	25
2025-05-09	0.223	0.3026	-25.00	497605	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2025-05-02	0.223	0.3073	-23.24	326876	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2025-04-25	0.212	0.3082	-24.15	400579	Downward Expansion	-66	61
2025-04-18	0.204	0.309	-23.41	122836	Downward Expansion	-74	83
2025-04-11	0.209	0.3087	-18.52	1113152	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2025-04-04	0.2165	0.3084	-16.79	404089	Rotation Down	-76	89
2025-03-28	0.23	0.3074	-18.82	145337	Rotation Down	-50	78
2025-03-21	0.222	0.3057	-23.06	904159	Rotation Down	-60	76
2025-03-14	0.2455	0.3043	-15.27	545529	Deceleration	-54	62
2025-03-07	0.2805	0.3019	-3.22	467559	Deceleration	-14	27
2025-02-28	0.319	0.2993	12.36	108487	Deceleration	9	12
2025-02-21	0.315	0.2939	12.58	480471	Deceleration	9	11
2025-02-14	0.31	0.2888	9.97	274161	Deceleration	9	11
2025-02-07	0.32	0.2838	17.52	455833	Deceleration	17	13
2025-01-31	0.3255	0.2784	19.84	511313	Deceleration	22	12
2025-01-24	0.321	0.273	19.40	156500	Deceleration	24	13
2025-01-17	0.3225	0.2676	21.58	241123	Deceleration	36	21
2025-01-10	0.3455	0.2623	32.39	173561	Deceleration	40	24
2025-01-03	0.338	0.2561	29.16	163818	Deceleration	39	23
2024-12-27	0.352	0.2509	31.09	330643	Deceleration	53	30
2024-12-20	0.336	0.2452	23.28	294116	Deceleration	42	29
2024-12-13	0.3305	0.2395	17.01	610863	Deceleration	43	32
2024-12-06	0.3545	0.2333	23.92	328122	Deceleration	46	35
2024-11-29	0.3605	0.2251	28.71	958347	Deceleration	51	39
2024-11-22	0.3325	0.2184	19.63	510606	Upward Expansion	48	40
2024-11-15	0.335	0.2129	20.78	206934	Upward Expansion	61	54
2024-11-08	0.35	0.2083	25.28	537389	Upward Expansion	66	74
2024-11-01	0.334	0.2032	17.97	917548	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-10-25	0.372	0.1988	28.47	739445	Upward Expansion	74	90
2024-10-18	0.439	0.1923	48.09	2116837	Upward Expansion	98	99
2024-10-11	0.3645	0.1836	23.61	3078108	Upward Expansion	97	94
2024-10-04	0.2505	0.1776	-15.09	2631260	Upward Expansion	80	77
2024-09-27	0.235	0.1763	-23.30	3046314	Upward Expansion	80	69
2024-09-20	0.194	0.1757	-35.67	1427987	Balance	30	39
2024-09-13	0.1996	0.1764	-35.30	385347	Balance	35	37
2024-09-06	0.1872	0.177	-39.51	969057	Balance	14	24
2024-08-30	0.1798	0.179	-45.12	789392	Balance	9	17
2024-08-23	0.18	0.1835	-45.58	706429	Balance	-12	12
2024-08-16	0.1748	0.1896	-47.67	597152	Balance	-18	11
2024-08-09	0.20	0.1986	-39.77	521805	Balance	-6	5
2024-08-02	0.1586	0.2083	-53.35	106866	Downward Expansion	-50	27
2024-07-26	0.1604	0.2207	-56.07	117926	Downward Expansion	-50	28
2024-07-19	0.1622	0.2331	-56.33	688678	Downward Expansion	-51	29
2024-07-12	0.157	0.241	-60.31	1402046	Downward Expansion	-54	32
2024-07-05	0.162	0.2504	-59.56	357555	Downward Expansion	-44	30
2024-06-28	0.1616	0.2616	-60.20	216154	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2024-06-21	0.1616	0.2694	-60.89	1254559	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2024-06-14	0.1602	0.2747	-61.43	715545	Downward Expansion	-45	31
2024-06-07	0.1822	0.2815	-58.10	934608	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2024-05-31	0.18	0.289	-59.21	6774861	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2024-05-24	0.1648	0.2963	-63.96	2328944	Downward Expansion	-65	78
2024-05-17	0.1442	0.3054	-69.00	2702647	Downward Expansion	-66	83
2024-05-10	0.111	0.3152	-76.58	4074674	Downward Expansion	-84	87
2024-05-03	0.1572	0.3265	-66.03	3297421	Downward Expansion	-72	65
2024-04-26	0.1686	0.3359	-64.45	2110824	Downward Expansion	-69	56
2024-04-19	0.1976	0.3465	-58.12	585908	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2024-04-12	0.197	0.3558	-59.85	1140819	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2024-04-05	0.20	0.3662	-61.07	738361	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2024-03-29	0.1795	0.3763	-66.58	651822	Downward Expansion	-71	80
2024-03-22	0.1771	0.3869	-67.54	1628150	Downward Expansion	-73	79
2024-03-15	0.184	0.3991	-66.82	2934494	Downward Expansion	-75	85
2024-03-08	0.2104	0.4116	-63.18	1110915	Downward Expansion	-70	85
2024-03-01	0.2182	0.4246	-62.81	1077878	Downward Expansion	-71	84
2024-02-23	0.2166	0.438	-63.60	1998048	Downward Expansion	-75	84
2024-02-16	0.2156	0.4531	-64.23	3357845	Downward Expansion	-80	82
2024-02-09	0.2482	0.4692	-59.82	1497273	Downward Expansion	-77	71
2024-02-02	0.313	0.4817	-51.05	1114524	Balance	-58	38
2024-01-26	0.364	0.4916	-45.17	1042460	Balance	-47	19
2024-01-19	0.4452	0.4979	-33.98	368032	Balance	-8	19
2024-01-12	0.4908	0.4966	-30.74	610401	Balance	-5	18
2024-01-05	0.532	0.4952	-26.77	478854	Balance	5	18
2023-12-29	0.53	0.4945	-29.89	1280454	Downward Expansion	-5	16
2023-12-22	0.4004	0.4988	-48.32	487894	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2023-12-15	0.4378	0.5014	-45.34	1445817	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2023-12-08	0.498	0.5018	-39.67	1776701	Downward Expansion	-38	32
2023-12-01	0.398	0.5009	-52.17	3942774	Downward Expansion	-65	68
2023-11-24	0.3208	0.5036	-61.91	5493108	Downward Expansion	-83	82
2023-11-17	0.3614	0.5113	-58.36	2638302	Downward Expansion	-80	79
2023-11-10	0.4082	0.526	-52.40	1068001	Downward Expansion	-69	66
2023-11-03	0.4002	0.543	-54.67	840891	Downward Expansion	-74	67
2023-10-27	0.4356	0.5564	-50.36	248371	Downward Expansion	-66	59
2023-10-20	0.439	0.572	-51.55	1010249	Downward Expansion	-67	58
2023-10-13	0.4498	0.5869	-53.01	624772	Downward Expansion	-67	62

Price vs TrendBelow-31.4%

Trend directionFalling-14.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-57.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-8.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-42.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-10.7%

Price momentumNegative-41.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.06×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-74 / ±100

+12.3 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

84 /100

+8.4 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ADJ Directional State ↗ ADJ Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance1

Rotation Up10

Upward Expansion19

Deceleration39

Rotation Down82

Downward Expansion97

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 23%Upward Expansion 6%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 59%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-10-02	Extended	-41.3%
Balance	2025-11-28	2026-03-20	Established	-25.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-01	2025-11-21	Established	+11.3%
Balance	2025-06-13	2025-07-25	Developing	-18.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-06-06	Developing	+19.6%
Rotation Down	2025-03-21	2025-04-04	New	-2.5%
Deceleration	2024-11-29	2025-03-14	Established	-31.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-27	2024-11-22	Developing	+41.5%
Balance	2024-08-09	2024-09-20	Developing	-3.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-02-09	2024-08-02	Established	-36.1%
Balance	2024-01-05	2024-02-02	Developing	-41.2%
Downward Expansion	2023-09-08	2023-12-29	Established	+5.3%
Balance	2023-08-04	2023-09-01	Developing	-19.5%
Downward Expansion	2022-05-06	2023-07-28	Extended	-88.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing54

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution16

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: -42.45
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -41.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -50.4%
Real Estate regime cohort: 28th percentile18 in cohort

Test ADJ trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.33×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.06×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ADJ Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 0.1028falling

Slow Activity EUR 0.1334falling

Trend Reference EUR 0.1454-31.4% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 0.2344-57.4% close margin

Structural low EUR 0.0912shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +14.2%

Annualized volatility +30.0%

From structural high -56.8%

From structural low +9.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	52	-9.3%-40.1% to +37.7%	+28.8%	+69.2%	-8.7%	+88.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	17	-11.8%-64.9% to +29.1%	+23.5%	+76.5%	-17.6%	+70.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	-42.0%-64.9% to -1.9%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-42.9%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	5	-76.8%-82.0% to +36.3%	+20.0%	+80.0%	-66.2%	+80.0%	Usable descriptive sample

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ADJ Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map