Weekly structural research · BUE · Consumer Defensive

WMT Stage Analysis

Walmart Inc.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close ARS 9,400.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^MERV

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -46−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 27/100directional strength

Maturity 55/100lifecycle context

Confidence 69/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +28.4%ARS 7,319.60 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	9,400.00	9,976.43	0.50	254483	Downward Expansion	-46	27
2026-09-25	9,735.00	10,000.10	-1.24	196247	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2026-09-18	9,485.00	10,021.60	-8.54	343102	Downward Expansion	-57	54
2026-09-11	9,530.00	10,033.59	-11.45	276682	Downward Expansion	-59	67
2026-09-04	9,440.00	10,080.26	-11.71	352727	Downward Expansion	-60	67
2026-08-28	9,205.00	10,125.93	-12.27	80745	Downward Expansion	-76	70
2026-08-21	9,165.00	10,150.26	-10.95	163794	Downward Expansion	-77	59
2026-08-14	10,077.02	10,175.59	-3.36	42334	Downward Expansion	-50	31
2026-08-07	9,822.68	10,170.02	-10.02	43385	Downward Expansion	-52	42
2026-07-31	9,712.93	10,168.43	-16.63	28754	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2026-07-24	9,682.95	10,165.33	-16.85	40568	Balance	-60	36
2026-07-17	9,987.45	10,156.73	-12.09	33068	Balance	-20	16
2026-07-10	9,910.00	10,149.82	-14.99	8455	Balance	-25	19
2026-07-03	10,020.00	10,146.15	-11.95	13200	Balance	-22	17
2026-06-26	9,925.00	10,133.32	-10.78	31113	Balance	-17	25
2026-06-19	9,975.00	10,112.98	-14.91	7929	Balance	-15	26
2026-06-12	10,070.00	10,075.48	-15.65	42469	Balance	-13	25
2026-06-05	9,995.00	10,021.98	-8.97	130131	Balance	7	18
2026-05-29	9,600.00	9,969.48	-14.72	324453	Upward Expansion	7	11
2026-05-22	9,945.00	9,931.31	-1.64	425135	Upward Expansion	40	26
2026-05-15	10,860.00	9,908.31	13.42	132713	Upward Expansion	63	62
2026-05-08	10,770.00	9,854.64	10.74	113942	Upward Expansion	61	60
2026-05-01	11,019.99	9,771.81	11.35	124266	Upward Expansion	70	59
2026-04-24	10,799.99	9,692.97	9.32	118146	Deceleration	64	46
2026-04-17	10,319.99	9,613.14	3.26	133349	Deceleration	51	30
2026-04-10	10,399.99	9,565.31	0.74	238786	Deceleration	52	26
2026-04-03	10,339.99	9,501.14	0.36	77517	Deceleration	42	21
2026-03-27	10,079.99	9,414.80	5.34	128926	Deceleration	33	17
2026-03-20	9,719.99	9,322.47	4.72	170620	Deceleration	36	20
2026-03-13	10,299.97	9,237.47	15.11	128185	Upward Expansion	45	27
2026-03-06	10,109.97	9,138.47	14.60	117296	Upward Expansion	57	40
2026-02-27	10,379.97	9,057.80	17.69	109504	Upward Expansion	63	50
2026-02-20	9,844.97	8,961.47	3.18	232108	Upward Expansion	63	57
2026-02-13	10,929.97	8,865.97	17.36	149930	Upward Expansion	81	80
2026-02-06	10,809.97	8,728.97	10.42	162203	Upward Expansion	84	75
2026-01-30	9,934.97	8,590.97	-5.12	177930	Upward Expansion	63	52
2026-01-23	9,924.97	8,484.47	-1.62	146730	Upward Expansion	63	46
2026-01-16	9,909.97	8,370.30	4.10	180790	Upward Expansion	65	46
2026-01-09	9,774.97	8,245.63	-1.96	114508	Upward Expansion	62	46
2026-01-02	9,619.97	8,127.80	-4.10	55506	Upward Expansion	60	51
2025-12-26	9,424.98	8,022.80	-5.12	169670	Upward Expansion	63	68
2025-12-19	9,779.97	7,928.30	-1.99	154126	Upward Expansion	69	74
2025-12-12	9,799.97	7,809.96	3.94	125984	Upward Expansion	72	68
2025-12-05	9,634.96	7,696.30	0.47	133892	Upward Expansion	71	49
2025-11-28	9,314.96	7,581.46	-1.87	154063	Deceleration	67	39
2025-11-21	8,849.97	7,485.63	2.52	233642	Deceleration	47	28
2025-11-14	8,464.97	7,401.30	-9.12	197566	Upward Expansion	44	33
2025-11-07	8,419.97	7,316.46	-5.42	366494	Upward Expansion	58	45
2025-10-31	8,454.97	7,265.80	-9.30	691044	Upward Expansion	61	50
2025-10-24	9,254.96	7,189.63	43.50	195179	Upward Expansion	77	63
2025-10-17	9,249.96	7,087.79	51.22	222189	Upward Expansion	83	65
2025-10-10	8,284.97	6,985.13	41.50	405667	Upward Expansion	66	68
2025-10-03	8,654.97	6,903.96	59.02	546389	Upward Expansion	72	88
2025-09-26	8,404.97	6,823.46	57.28	199429	Upward Expansion	67	85
2025-09-19	8,884.97	6,766.29	78.62	577981	Upward Expansion	89	93
2025-09-12	8,474.97	6,683.12	65.54	219394	Upward Expansion	87	70
2025-09-05	7,749.97	6,631.62	34.90	504137	Upward Expansion	75	54
2025-08-29	7,309.97	6,599.95	28.72	196535	Upward Expansion	61	60
2025-08-22	7,169.97	6,570.95	19.33	185177	Upward Expansion	64	74
2025-08-15	7,329.97	6,537.29	17.42	134414	Upward Expansion	66	80
2025-08-08	7,689.96	6,495.95	17.30	221058	Upward Expansion	86	87
2025-08-01	7,489.96	6,445.28	15.55	162307	Upward Expansion	85	80
2025-07-25	6,979.96	6,394.62	11.52	96853	Upward Expansion	69	68
2025-07-18	6,819.96	6,362.62	15.26	189876	Balance	59	56
2025-07-11	6,669.96	6,334.95	16.51	153826	Balance	52	37
2025-07-04	6,739.96	6,302.61	13.79	128084	Balance	54	23
2025-06-27	6,499.96	6,266.61	11.70	360479	Balance	43	16
2025-06-20	6,169.96	6,239.28	4.87	40303	Balance	21	9
2025-06-13	6,239.96	6,218.61	2.89	233492	Balance	35	16
2025-06-06	6,469.96	6,188.61	5.18	176822	Balance	45	26
2025-05-30	6,589.96	6,154.28	1.28	108045	Balance	50	22
2025-05-23	6,229.96	6,114.28	-6.89	207668	Balance	18	9
2025-05-16	6,389.96	6,084.27	-3.55	141714	Balance	25	12
2025-05-09	6,189.96	6,050.61	2.49	290551	Deceleration	26	12
2025-05-02	6,439.95	6,018.27	7.57	369287	Deceleration	37	20
2025-04-25	6,319.95	5,988.27	-0.00	934534	Deceleration	31	16
2025-04-18	5,919.95	5,958.61	-4.30	244707	Deceleration	18	11
2025-04-11	6,899.95	5,940.27	7.85	407968	Deceleration	63	31
2025-04-04	6,169.95	5,897.27	3.06	315982	Deceleration	24	20
2025-03-28	6,199.95	5,870.60	-8.19	709455	Deceleration	25	22
2025-03-21	6,169.95	5,849.27	-10.94	416631	Deceleration	30	20
2025-03-14	5,849.94	5,824.94	-12.30	1359465	Upward Expansion	26	17
2025-03-07	6,239.94	5,804.94	-3.99	169019	Upward Expansion	57	41
2025-02-28	6,689.93	5,760.77	5.07	383832	Upward Expansion	65	56
2025-02-21	6,389.94	5,705.10	-6.58	630966	Upward Expansion	64	63
2025-02-14	6,929.93	5,662.10	-0.03	966119	Upward Expansion	82	82
2025-02-07	6,799.93	5,604.77	-3.34	474832	Upward Expansion	85	76
2025-01-31	6,439.94	5,561.10	-14.09	134598	Upward Expansion	77	65
2025-01-24	6,159.94	5,526.58	-18.18	445562	Upward Expansion	67	55
2025-01-17	6,089.94	5,490.95	-17.66	1408743	Upward Expansion	65	58
2025-01-10	6,169.94	5,447.02	-28.86	755453	Upward Expansion	73	69
2025-01-03	5,969.94	5,398.72	-32.45	219625	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-12-27	6,019.94	5,359.55	-30.83	221635	Upward Expansion	72	68
2024-12-20	5,989.94	5,309.93	-30.81	281779	Upward Expansion	76	70
2024-12-13	5,699.94	5,259.17	-33.73	255145	Upward Expansion	62	57
2024-12-06	5,659.93	5,201.50	-31.61	994628	Upward Expansion	61	47
2024-11-29	5,679.93	5,133.75	-35.19	294245	Deceleration	63	37
2024-11-22	5,549.93	5,068.67	-37.33	245441	Deceleration	57	30
2024-11-15	5,339.94	5,004.60	-37.25	367901	Deceleration	35	19
2024-11-08	5,439.93	4,944.37	-35.51	178091	Deceleration	41	23
2024-11-01	5,389.94	4,880.18	-35.95	155294	Deceleration	35	19
2024-10-25	5,329.94	4,816.77	-38.96	148998	Deceleration	37	23
2024-10-18	5,379.94	4,760.52	-38.85	395045	Deceleration	41	28
2024-10-11	5,219.94	4,704.65	-41.23	346796	Upward Expansion	42	29
2024-10-04	5,539.93	4,651.27	-38.61	217371	Upward Expansion	62	46
2024-09-27	5,429.93	4,582.37	-40.77	289287	Upward Expansion	57	45
2024-09-20	5,369.94	4,519.23	-46.39	782282	Upward Expansion	61	50
2024-09-13	5,609.93	4,460.81	-45.61	199096	Upward Expansion	71	72
2024-09-06	5,369.94	4,391.09	-46.62	211264	Upward Expansion	61	62
2024-08-30	5,559.93	4,340.55	-46.29	99495	Deceleration	73	56
2024-08-23	5,439.93	4,290.42	-45.16	124005	Deceleration	69	46
2024-08-16	5,249.94	4,234.55	-49.59	139132	Deceleration	50	34
2024-08-09	4,914.93	4,453.01	-52.03	215482	Rotation Up	44	33
2024-08-02	5,019.93	4,626.97	-47.13	103904	Rotation Up	33	40
2024-07-26	5,099.93	4,789.54	-51.19	97874	Rotation Up	37	49
2024-07-19	5,209.93	4,904.37	-51.99	352293	Rotation Up	40	54
2024-07-12	5,489.92	5,004.48	-54.57	711318	Rotation Up	57	67
2024-07-05	5,404.42	5,103.12	-53.82	715812	Rotation Up	32	52
2024-06-28	5,090.93	5,205.12	-56.84	446243	Rotation Up	26	48
2024-06-21	4,771.93	5,292.90	-59.43	86689	Rotation Up	13	44
2024-06-14	4,720.93	5,391.90	-60.78	191200	Downward Expansion	13	44
2024-06-07	4,794.93	5,487.26	-59.31	266326	Downward Expansion	17	42
2024-05-31	4,531.44	5,597.27	-65.31	126223	Downward Expansion	-21	35
2024-05-24	4,466.94	5,712.76	-63.65	292112	Downward Expansion	-43	41
2024-05-17	3,969.94	5,811.26	-67.35	177167	Downward Expansion	-52	75
2024-05-10	3,627.45	5,974.98	-69.44	209753	Downward Expansion	-55	81
2024-05-03	3,727.44	6,133.66	-70.23	258377	Downward Expansion	-56	82
2024-04-26	3,627.94	6,258.81	-67.86	116274	Downward Expansion	-65	86
2024-04-19	3,532.94	6,381.09	-67.04	238838	Downward Expansion	-61	56
2024-04-12	3,514.44	6,489.80	-69.33	288903	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2024-04-05	3,487.44	6,597.24	-69.41	136573	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2024-03-29	3,642.44	6,705.64	-68.70	89756	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2024-03-22	3,703.94	6,813.93	-69.18	119340	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2024-03-15	3,618.44	6,915.95	-66.16	214175	Downward Expansion	-66	69
2024-03-08	3,472.93	7,013.91	-66.06	295087	Downward Expansion	-69	83
2024-03-01	3,535.93	7,077.45	-67.73	265117	Downward Expansion	-70	85
2024-02-23	3,617.26	7,131.18	-68.98	405951	Rotation Down	-67	86
2024-02-16	3,518.26	7,172.46	-69.17	210078	Rotation Down	-47	63
2024-02-09	3,853.92	7,212.36	-68.61	777987	Rotation Down	-39	46
2024-02-02	4,055.75	7,238.36	-72.09	676689	Rotation Down	-34	30
2024-01-26	3,764.09	7,250.07	-73.22	121767	Rotation Down	8	10
2024-01-19	11,803.59	7,273.77	-11.69	84135	Upward Expansion	87	85
2024-01-12	10,133.79	7,029.43	-13.97	487923	Upward Expansion	76	67
2024-01-05	9,896.96	6,837.80	-18.01	145335	Upward Expansion	76	55
2023-12-29	8,544.82	6,649.77	-20.12	204102	Upward Expansion	57	39
2023-12-22	8,213.33	6,501.61	-25.24	188421	Upward Expansion	52	36
2023-12-15	8,448.99	6,362.49	-21.92	133998	Deceleration	60	39
2023-12-08	8,464.49	6,217.90	-23.97	142503	Deceleration	63	38
2023-12-01	7,724.31	6,068.52	-25.79	155232	Deceleration	41	30
2023-11-24	7,741.98	5,939.34	-30.31	99258	Upward Expansion	45	37
2023-11-17	7,581.65	5,808.12	-4.26	241074	Upward Expansion	58	44
2023-11-10	8,095.30	5,683.08	-1.03	67737	Upward Expansion	65	59
2023-11-03	7,996.14	5,524.43	0.65	106062	Upward Expansion	65	64
2023-10-27	7,421.82	5,370.97	-9.62	72639	Upward Expansion	67	67
2023-10-20	8,881.78	5,234.43	-12.15	319266	Upward Expansion	91	76
2023-10-13	8,387.63	5,040.20	-13.39	197793	Upward Expansion	92	76

Price vs TrendBelow-5.8%

Trend directionFalling-1.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+28.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-14.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+0.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+12.4%

Price momentumNegative-9.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.30×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-46 / ±100

+13.6 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

27 /100

-40.2 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

WMT Directional State ↗ WMT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance36

Rotation Up24

Upward Expansion14

Deceleration46

Rotation Down36

Downward Expansion62

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 45%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 17%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-31	2026-10-02	Developing	-3.2%
Balance	2026-06-05	2026-07-24	Developing	-3.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-05-29	Developing	-12.9%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-04-24	Developing	+11.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-03-13	Established	+6.9%
Deceleration	2025-11-21	2025-11-28	New	+5.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-11-14	Established	+21.3%
Balance	2025-05-16	2025-07-18	Developing	+6.7%
Deceleration	2025-03-21	2025-05-09	Developing	+0.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-06	2025-03-14	Established	+3.4%
Deceleration	2024-10-18	2024-11-29	Developing	+5.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-06	2024-10-11	Developing	-2.8%
Deceleration	2024-08-16	2024-08-30	New	+5.9%
Rotation Up	2024-06-21	2024-08-09	Developing	+3.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing39

Stage 2 · Advancing27

Stage 3 · Distribution59

Stage 4 · Declining73

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MERV

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 42/100
Current Relative Strength: 0.50
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -9.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -1.4%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 11th percentile9 in cohort

Test WMT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.79×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.30×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore WMT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity ARS 9,526.33rising

Slow Activity ARS 9,796.12falling

Trend Reference ARS 9,976.43-5.8% close margin

Current Fair Value ARS 7,319.60+28.4% close margin

Structural low ARS 9,010.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.4%

Annualized volatility +23.4%

From structural high -16.1%

From structural low +19.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MERV	Regime survived	Read
Near term	7	+5.8%-5.2% to +36.9%	+71.4%	+28.6%	+4.2%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	+28.2%+22.7% to +38.7%	+100.0%	+0.0%	-23.6%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+69.3%+57.2% to +81.4%	+100.0%	+0.0%	-8.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+132.5%+89.2% to +175.8%	+100.0%	+0.0%	-86.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

WMT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map