Weekly structural research · HKG · Industrials

2266 Stage Analysis

Lai Si Enterprise Holding Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close HKD 0.45Tenure NewBenchmark ^HSI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 48−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 41/100directional strength

Maturity 21/100lifecycle context

Confidence 88/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +45.2%HKD 0.31 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.45	0.3811	26.90	696000	Balance	48	41
2026-10-02	0.41	0.3793	17.44	206000	Balance	19	12
2026-09-25	0.415	0.3788	16.74	802000	Downward Expansion	-25	23
2026-09-18	0.33	0.3781	-7.59	448000	Downward Expansion	-78	78
2026-09-11	0.345	0.3801	-3.39	44000	Downward Expansion	-69	55
2026-09-04	0.35	0.3816	-4.97	32000	Rotation Up	-56	39
2026-08-28	0.36	0.3813	-1.58	54000	Rotation Up	-24	11
2026-08-21	0.37	0.3813	0.05	122000	Rotation Up	4	31
2026-08-14	0.40	0.3809	12.37	0	Rotation Up	31	53
2026-08-07	0.40	0.3796	10.63	0	Balance	29	37
2026-07-31	0.40	0.3783	10.29	0	Balance	27	19
2026-07-24	0.41	0.3763	17.84	0	Balance	33	14
2026-07-17	0.36	0.3739	5.83	0	Balance	-18	17
2026-07-10	0.34	0.3733	1.92	32000	Balance	-21	11
2026-07-03	0.39	0.3739	21.31	0	Balance	30	20
2026-06-26	0.38	0.3724	22.45	0	Balance	8	6
2026-06-19	0.3852	0.3713	18.19	110000	Balance	7	7
2026-06-12	0.366	0.3704	9.39	0	Balance	-14	20
2026-06-05	0.3563	0.3702	6.03	58000	Balance	-18	22
2026-05-29	0.3611	0.37	6.97	114000	Balance	-16	17
2026-05-22	0.3611	0.3698	5.58	724000	Balance	-15	13
2026-05-15	0.3756	0.3698	8.62	668000	Balance	9	13
2026-05-08	0.3708	0.3696	5.83	156000	Balance	10	13
2026-05-01	0.3756	0.3697	10.10	76000	Upward Expansion	24	17
2026-04-24	0.3611	0.3699	5.38	100000	Upward Expansion	22	14
2026-04-17	0.385	0.3692	11.75	248000	Upward Expansion	40	22
2026-04-10	0.385	0.3667	13.14	584000	Upward Expansion	55	34
2026-04-03	0.41	0.3643	24.54	46000	Upward Expansion	60	41
2026-03-27	0.41	0.3595	26.12	452000	Upward Expansion	63	44
2026-03-20	0.42	0.3542	28.54	480000	Upward Expansion	74	61
2026-03-13	0.395	0.3502	21.28	128000	Upward Expansion	60	61
2026-03-06	0.395	0.3467	20.85	280000	Upward Expansion	64	67
2026-02-27	0.395	0.3432	17.81	218000	Upward Expansion	69	65
2026-02-20	0.39	0.3395	17.90	0	Upward Expansion	69	57
2026-02-13	0.39	0.3365	17.80	864000	Deceleration	70	47
2026-02-06	0.34	0.3335	3.47	326000	Deceleration	30	17
2026-01-30	0.36	0.3322	6.57	0	Deceleration	41	29
2026-01-23	0.36	0.3302	9.35	178000	Deceleration	40	25
2026-01-16	0.36	0.329	9.23	122000	Deceleration	41	20
2026-01-09	0.36	0.326	12.01	452000	Deceleration	30	13
2026-01-02	0.34	0.3228	5.76	0	Deceleration	20	11
2025-12-26	0.34	0.3205	8.19	80000	Deceleration	32	15
2025-12-19	0.34	0.3183	9.05	410000	Deceleration	34	15
2025-12-12	0.36	0.3165	14.51	694001	Deceleration	40	21
2025-12-05	0.345	0.3139	9.71	86000	Deceleration	36	19
2025-11-28	0.345	0.3116	10.99	1998000	Deceleration	38	22
2025-11-21	0.36	0.3094	19.01	220000	Deceleration	42	25
2025-11-14	0.36	0.3067	13.47	1680000	Upward Expansion	43	27
2025-11-07	0.35	0.3041	12.11	1412000	Upward Expansion	56	39
2025-10-31	0.355	0.3016	15.57	0	Upward Expansion	60	56
2025-10-24	0.36	0.2991	16.50	164000	Upward Expansion	64	73
2025-10-17	0.37	0.2958	24.62	76000	Upward Expansion	69	78
2025-10-10	0.375	0.2909	22.02	42000	Upward Expansion	72	76
2025-10-03	0.38	0.2867	20.08	486000	Balance	76	71
2025-09-26	0.34	0.2822	12.00	900000	Balance	62	45
2025-09-19	0.31	0.2796	0.54	180000	Balance	48	19
2025-09-12	0.315	0.2783	2.28	984000	Balance	31	13
2025-09-05	0.265	0.2753	-11.12	1260000	Balance	-13	14
2025-08-29	0.25	0.2741	-15.60	1258000	Balance	8	9
2025-08-22	0.30	0.2737	-0.58	934000	Upward Expansion	35	15
2025-08-15	0.29	0.2717	-3.97	400000	Upward Expansion	32	14
2025-08-08	0.29	0.2699	-2.81	2430000	Upward Expansion	35	18
2025-08-01	0.285	0.2674	-3.63	138000	Upward Expansion	48	26
2025-07-25	0.30	0.2653	-2.66	1762000	Upward Expansion	52	38
2025-07-18	0.30	0.2628	-1.00	1474000	Upward Expansion	55	56
2025-07-11	0.30	0.2604	1.22	364000	Upward Expansion	55	51
2025-07-04	0.30	0.258	1.76	2760000	Upward Expansion	54	37
2025-06-27	0.325	0.2555	7.91	586000	Upward Expansion	69	36
2025-06-20	0.27	0.2525	-7.97	272000	Upward Expansion	32	16
2025-06-13	0.2654	0.2508	-11.45	6000	Upward Expansion	35	17
2025-06-06	0.27	0.2493	-10.19	156000	Upward Expansion	39	24
2025-05-30	0.2746	0.2481	-7.31	1082000	Upward Expansion	52	31
2025-05-23	0.2837	0.2467	-6.18	78000	Upward Expansion	58	38
2025-05-16	0.2837	0.2448	-5.61	12000	Upward Expansion	59	38
2025-05-09	0.2746	0.243	-7.14	102000	Upward Expansion	57	47
2025-05-02	0.2792	0.2428	-4.59	0	Upward Expansion	60	57
2025-04-25	0.2792	0.2425	-2.67	0	Upward Expansion	61	66
2025-04-18	0.2837	0.2421	1.13	60000	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-04-11	0.2746	0.2414	-0.66	122000	Balance	60	37
2025-04-04	0.2792	0.241	-8.14	0	Balance	43	29
2025-03-28	0.2608	0.2402	-16.92	60000	Balance	32	16
2025-03-21	0.2242	0.2405	-30.03	982000	Rotation Up	-8	10
2025-03-14	0.2471	0.2413	-24.74	0	Rotation Up	28	47
2025-03-07	0.2471	0.2413	-26.46	20000	Rotation Up	20	47
2025-02-28	0.2608	0.2416	-19.01	0	Rotation Up	35	51
2025-02-21	0.27	0.2416	-18.90	568000	Rotation Up	41	32
2025-02-14	0.227	0.2413	-29.91	0	Downward Expansion	-24	17
2025-02-07	0.2288	0.2429	-25.31	0	Downward Expansion	-17	21
2025-01-31	0.238	0.2444	-19.81	0	Downward Expansion	-23	19
2025-01-24	0.238	0.2462	-20.08	114000	Downward Expansion	-37	25
2025-01-17	0.238	0.2482	-18.97	378000	Downward Expansion	-48	54
2025-01-10	0.2151	0.2496	-25.63	0	Downward Expansion	-77	78
2025-01-03	0.2206	0.2519	-27.25	20000	Downward Expansion	-67	58
2024-12-27	0.227	0.2541	-27.17	0	Downward Expansion	-46	35
2024-12-20	0.227	0.2566	-26.43	0	Downward Expansion	-47	35
2024-12-13	0.227	0.2585	-28.15	0	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2024-12-06	0.227	0.2607	-28.34	0	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2024-11-29	0.2334	0.2631	-25.28	42000	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2024-11-22	0.2197	0.2644	-29.49	0	Downward Expansion	-69	65
2024-11-15	0.2197	0.2666	-30.72	100000	Downward Expansion	-71	74
2024-11-08	0.2334	0.2693	-31.50	0	Downward Expansion	-62	71
2024-11-01	0.2334	0.2713	-31.20	40000	Downward Expansion	-63	66
2024-10-25	0.227	0.2733	-33.56	4000	Downward Expansion	-71	56
2024-10-18	0.2288	0.2755	-34.08	1036000	Balance	-67	34
2024-10-11	0.27	0.2781	-24.24	488000	Balance	-29	16
2024-10-04	0.27	0.2796	-29.43	2918000	Downward Expansion	-31	16
2024-09-27	0.2654	0.281	-23.97	18000	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2024-09-20	0.2654	0.2825	-14.43	18000	Downward Expansion	-39	21
2024-09-13	0.2608	0.284	-11.80	142000	Downward Expansion	-46	31
2024-09-06	0.2563	0.2859	-13.85	0	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2024-08-30	0.27	0.2878	-12.17	246000	Downward Expansion	-61	58
2024-08-23	0.2471	0.2894	-17.93	0	Downward Expansion	-72	78
2024-08-16	0.2471	0.2918	-17.27	10000	Downward Expansion	-75	76
2024-08-09	0.2563	0.2944	-12.61	0	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2024-08-02	0.2608	0.2968	-10.23	0	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2024-07-26	0.2608	0.2991	-10.69	188000	Downward Expansion	-64	51
2024-07-19	0.2746	0.3008	-8.11	146000	Downward Expansion	-53	26
2024-07-12	0.2746	0.3028	-12.54	494000	Downward Expansion	-55	27
2024-07-05	0.2929	0.3037	-4.38	0	Downward Expansion	-43	21
2024-06-28	0.2975	0.304	-2.49	236000	Downward Expansion	-46	24
2024-06-21	0.2792	0.3043	-10.28	22000	Downward Expansion	-55	28
2024-06-14	0.2837	0.3054	-8.74	2000	Downward Expansion	-52	25
2024-06-07	0.2883	0.306	-9.63	68000	Downward Expansion	-38	18
2024-05-31	0.302	0.306	-4.16	6000	Downward Expansion	-36	17
2024-05-24	0.2837	0.3042	-12.67	38000	Downward Expansion	-54	31
2024-05-17	0.2929	0.3039	-14.56	16000	Rotation Down	-52	32
2024-05-10	0.2975	0.3029	-10.91	804000	Rotation Down	-28	26
2024-05-03	0.2746	0.3023	-15.78	0	Rotation Down	-47	49
2024-04-26	0.2837	0.3029	-9.46	666000	Rotation Down	-41	43
2024-04-19	0.302	0.3033	4.39	22000	Rotation Down	-20	45
2024-04-12	0.2929	0.3031	-2.09	40000	Rotation Down	-24	44
2024-04-05	0.2929	0.3033	-2.49	0	Deceleration	-27	43
2024-03-29	0.2929	0.3036	-2.04	96000	Deceleration	-6	16
2024-03-22	0.3066	0.3033	2.25	6000	Deceleration	13	9
2024-03-15	0.3158	0.3028	3.28	140000	Deceleration	20	11
2024-03-08	0.3112	0.3014	3.42	0	Deceleration	28	15
2024-03-01	0.3112	0.3002	1.46	0	Deceleration	29	16
2024-02-23	0.3112	0.3002	0.08	0	Deceleration	31	16
2024-02-16	0.3158	0.2999	3.40	0	Upward Expansion	34	17
2024-02-09	0.3158	0.2996	6.99	0	Upward Expansion	36	18
2024-02-02	0.3158	0.3004	8.33	8000	Upward Expansion	47	25
2024-01-26	0.3203	0.3002	6.79	0	Upward Expansion	50	32
2024-01-19	0.3249	0.3014	12.77	62000	Rotation Up	51	30
2024-01-12	0.3295	0.3026	7.73	20000	Rotation Up	29	33
2024-01-05	0.3295	0.3037	5.61	4000	Balance	30	24
2023-12-29	0.3112	0.3049	-3.61	812000	Balance	14	18
2023-12-22	0.3341	0.306	7.18	8000	Balance	30	34
2023-12-15	0.302	0.3068	-6.25	46000	Balance	-5	16
2023-12-08	0.302	0.3089	-4.51	0	Balance	-6	19
2023-12-01	0.3066	0.3104	-6.51	8000	Balance	-5	16
2023-11-24	0.3112	0.3139	-9.61	30000	Downward Expansion	-18	11
2023-11-17	0.302	0.317	-12.39	256000	Downward Expansion	-36	24
2023-11-10	0.2883	0.3213	-15.76	482000	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2023-11-03	0.2471	0.3261	-30.29	64000	Downward Expansion	-83	81
2023-10-27	0.2746	0.3338	-22.30	28000	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2023-10-20	0.2654	0.3402	-24.90	0	Downward Expansion	-73	64

Price vs TrendAbove+18.1%

Trend directionRising+0.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+45.2%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+32.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+26.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+25.0%

Price momentumPositive+16.9%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.65×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

48 / ±100

+116.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

41 /100

-14.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

2266 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance31

Rotation Up66

Upward Expansion48

Deceleration41

Rotation Down25

Downward Expansion18

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 26%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 30%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	+9.8%
Downward Expansion	2026-09-11	2026-09-25	New	+20.3%
Rotation Up	2026-08-14	2026-09-04	New	-12.5%
Balance	2026-05-08	2026-08-07	Established	+7.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-05-01	Developing	-3.7%
Deceleration	2025-11-21	2026-02-13	Established	+8.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-10	2025-11-14	Developing	-4.0%
Balance	2025-08-29	2025-10-03	Developing	+52.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-08-22	Established	+5.7%
Balance	2025-03-28	2025-04-11	New	+5.3%
Rotation Up	2025-02-21	2025-03-21	Developing	-16.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-10-25	2025-02-14	Established	+0.0%
Balance	2024-10-11	2024-10-18	New	-15.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-05-24	2024-10-04	Established	-4.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing41

Stage 2 · Advancing97

Stage 3 · Distribution62

Stage 4 · Declining3

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^HSI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 94/100
Current Relative Strength: 26.90
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +16.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +23.4%
Industrials regime cohort: 89th percentile54 in cohort

Test 2266 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume5.12×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.65×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+62.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 2266 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity HKD 0.4093rising

Slow Activity HKD 0.3808rising

Trend Reference HKD 0.3811+18.1% close margin

Current Fair Value HKD 0.31+45.2% close margin

Structural low HKD 0.32shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +7.7%

Annualized volatility +49.3%

From structural high -8.2%

From structural low +42.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^HSI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	+2.6%-14.9% to +36.0%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+1.5%	+53.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+12.4%-28.7% to +38.0%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+13.1%	+25.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+1.7%-38.3% to +50.8%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+3.3%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+16.9%-14.5% to +38.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+15.2%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

2266 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

RMI Reversal Map