Weekly structural research · IST · Basic Materials

EREGL Stage Analysis

Eregli Demir ve Çelik Fabrikalari T.A.S.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close TRY 37.74Tenure DevelopingBenchmark XU100.IS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 5−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 14/100directional strength

Maturity 37/100lifecycle context

Confidence 76/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +42.0%TRY 26.58 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	37.74	36.70	18.28	490817049	Deceleration	5	14
2026-09-18	36.42	36.53	11.01	885516575	Deceleration	-7	15
2026-09-11	39.40	36.32	10.43	704532553	Deceleration	10	15
2026-09-04	37.20	35.99	7.86	651640942	Deceleration	-2	22
2026-08-28	39.16	35.72	8.75	901467168	Deceleration	24	30
2026-08-21	38.14	35.35	6.87	220803958	Deceleration	32	28
2026-08-14	37.38	34.98	7.31	187307320	Upward Expansion	39	31
2026-08-07	38.68	34.60	14.29	309272609	Upward Expansion	60	51
2026-07-31	42.54	34.14	29.03	94060059	Upward Expansion	66	59
2026-07-24	43.28	33.53	27.35	142858235	Upward Expansion	74	61
2026-07-17	42.34	32.88	24.82	96997009	Upward Expansion	73	61
2026-07-10	40.40	32.29	16.67	95320113	Upward Expansion	64	59
2026-07-03	40.10	31.76	15.21	99353915	Upward Expansion	66	61
2026-06-26	42.12	31.21	22.34	237055734	Upward Expansion	82	69
2026-06-19	40.02	30.61	12.82	118894985	Upward Expansion	73	65
2026-06-12	39.36	30.08	17.18	130986348	Upward Expansion	71	65
2026-06-05	39.16	29.56	18.84	158975734	Upward Expansion	70	71
2026-05-29	38.65	29.13	17.95	229142940	Upward Expansion	69	86
2026-05-22	38.16	28.75	15.46	555095577	Upward Expansion	70	87
2026-05-15	39.09	28.39	13.91	1035475959	Upward Expansion	83	93
2026-05-08	40.71	27.97	13.31	1190756908	Upward Expansion	95	96
2026-05-01	34.65	27.54	0.73	743388990	Upward Expansion	82	84
2026-04-24	32.56	27.36	-5.23	688585691	Upward Expansion	74	70
2026-04-17	31.61	27.29	-9.20	942077082	Deceleration	70	46
2026-04-10	30.88	27.20	-8.12	1339313466	Deceleration	55	30
2026-04-03	28.81	27.02	-6.79	708922582	Deceleration	34	22
2026-03-27	27.90	26.98	-8.07	509026141	Upward Expansion	36	26
2026-03-20	27.90	27.04	-10.62	307099895	Upward Expansion	47	35
2026-03-13	28.40	27.09	-9.45	526023591	Rotation Up	62	51
2026-03-06	28.20	27.07	-8.11	735441443	Rotation Up	39	59
2026-02-27	32.66	27.03	-0.86	1205416591	Rotation Up	67	88
2026-02-20	30.06	26.84	-10.10	1353275070	Rotation Up	47	80
2026-02-13	29.58	26.74	-13.18	960703666	Rotation Up	49	79
2026-02-06	29.02	26.65	-10.86	984440472	Rotation Up	48	62
2026-01-30	28.18	26.59	-15.54	812725693	Downward Expansion	38	40
2026-01-23	27.06	26.56	-13.75	952138735	Downward Expansion	-6	18
2026-01-16	26.06	26.51	-14.94	1021472500	Downward Expansion	-35	25
2026-01-09	24.66	26.51	-16.58	848248395	Downward Expansion	-46	38
2026-01-02	24.22	26.51	-13.31	405807922	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2025-12-26	23.84	26.48	-13.35	458226864	Downward Expansion	-67	63
2025-12-19	24.56	26.46	-11.36	729789127	Rotation Down	-61	62
2025-12-12	24.56	26.42	-11.39	1096416751	Rotation Down	-37	60
2025-12-05	23.80	26.42	-12.06	1062169396	Rotation Down	-41	66
2025-11-28	23.86	26.42	-11.22	944286854	Rotation Down	-42	63
2025-11-21	24.12	26.40	-10.77	976483643	Rotation Down	-34	52
2025-11-14	23.90	26.34	-8.87	961553514	Balance	-35	34
2025-11-07	26.12	26.24	-3.97	1551910312	Balance	1	14
2025-10-31	27.48	26.07	0.31	703815459	Balance	16	16
2025-10-24	27.24	25.87	-0.42	1043591034	Upward Expansion	32	17
2025-10-17	26.40	25.71	3.32	936468305	Upward Expansion	30	24
2025-10-10	27.86	25.52	3.74	835254527	Upward Expansion	56	45
2025-10-03	29.34	25.44	7.75	1122143083	Upward Expansion	64	47
2025-09-26	30.32	25.28	8.40	1648962102	Upward Expansion	76	45
2025-09-19	28.94	25.01	2.20	945160056	Upward Expansion	71	45
2025-09-12	25.70	24.78	-1.11	814541640	Upward Expansion	45	40
2025-09-05	27.34	24.70	1.73	1006724840	Upward Expansion	64	59
2025-08-29	29.86	24.56	5.74	1039814854	Upward Expansion	84	90
2025-08-22	29.40	24.30	3.50	1232075322	Upward Expansion	87	81
2025-08-15	27.66	24.09	1.96	776363322	Upward Expansion	72	64
2025-08-08	27.16	23.93	-0.74	672643322	Upward Expansion	66	61
2025-08-01	26.94	23.81	0.48	498403954	Upward Expansion	64	67
2025-07-25	26.94	23.73	1.39	568068726	Upward Expansion	66	80
2025-07-18	26.88	23.66	3.84	460914624	Upward Expansion	68	81
2025-07-11	27.16	23.59	5.03	821647218	Upward Expansion	75	85
2025-07-04	27.48	23.56	7.24	1232588987	Rotation Up	83	83
2025-06-27	25.58	23.50	9.20	720683474	Rotation Up	41	59
2025-06-20	26.11	23.50	14.14	1490308056	Balance	48	50
2025-06-13	24.57	23.46	6.48	924213541	Balance	23	18
2025-06-06	23.32	23.47	-0.64	454196710	Balance	11	16
2025-05-30	23.22	23.53	4.16	714296865	Balance	12	18
2025-05-23	23.32	23.55	1.07	549028922	Balance	12	20
2025-05-16	24.57	23.56	3.20	872931041	Balance	3	16
2025-05-09	23.76	23.53	3.03	841914771	Downward Expansion	-20	12
2025-05-02	23.22	23.55	3.37	701604774	Downward Expansion	-46	27
2025-04-25	22.41	23.60	-2.74	627294739	Downward Expansion	-57	50
2025-04-18	20.90	23.72	-7.98	482350907	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2025-04-11	21.14	23.85	-7.47	712745745	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2025-04-04	21.40	23.92	-6.21	434156018	Downward Expansion	-62	40
2025-03-28	22.31	23.99	-4.91	884170634	Downward Expansion	-52	23
2025-03-21	20.90	24.05	-4.82	1140574988	Downward Expansion	-59	26
2025-03-14	25.34	24.15	-3.73	1107657235	Downward Expansion	-7	10
2025-03-07	24.57	24.10	-3.80	1300259496	Downward Expansion	-29	21
2025-02-28	22.11	24.12	-5.90	893034920	Downward Expansion	-67	47
2025-02-21	22.17	24.29	-5.23	936276937	Downward Expansion	-70	55
2025-02-14	23.12	24.48	-4.01	1134603111	Downward Expansion	-60	56
2025-02-07	23.20	24.66	-4.59	1079612013	Downward Expansion	-63	70
2025-01-31	22.23	24.80	-9.19	853042521	Downward Expansion	-77	77
2025-01-24	23.08	24.97	-6.82	917660448	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2025-01-17	22.84	25.08	-6.79	737952343	Balance	-70	58
2025-01-10	23.56	25.18	-3.45	843591873	Balance	-51	32
2025-01-03	24.49	25.25	-1.51	535974113	Balance	-30	13
2024-12-27	24.71	25.23	-0.37	608964743	Balance	6	10
2024-12-20	24.86	25.19	3.19	609111927	Balance	15	27
2024-12-13	26.31	25.18	4.74	1257340493	Balance	28	37
2024-12-06	25.68	25.08	2.69	678998969	Balance	18	21
2024-11-29	25.54	24.99	6.77	727377415	Balance	15	17
2024-11-22	24.82	24.87	5.00	874647652	Balance	-28	16
2024-11-15	24.91	24.75	7.31	644243718	Balance	-5	5
2024-11-08	25.31	24.60	11.68	755789254	Deceleration	-13	15
2024-11-01	23.75	24.44	8.60	530199140	Deceleration	-27	34
2024-10-25	23.48	24.33	7.35	724228668	Deceleration	-31	24
2024-10-18	23.80	24.23	10.43	1072045994	Deceleration	12	10
2024-10-11	24.23	24.15	11.56	1039542434	Deceleration	19	16
2024-10-04	24.84	24.06	11.59	901500840	Deceleration	22	15
2024-09-27	26.05	23.98	9.16	984488704	Deceleration	28	17
2024-09-20	24.62	23.86	1.90	866666516	Deceleration	-2	22
2024-09-13	23.50	23.80	-0.69	827855614	Deceleration	-26	35
2024-09-06	23.42	23.82	-2.11	627148194	Deceleration	-8	29
2024-08-30	23.94	23.80	-0.85	693674464	Deceleration	9	27
2024-08-23	23.89	23.71	0.44	953206448	Deceleration	14	24
2024-08-16	24.08	23.62	-0.59	1136856972	Upward Expansion	30	21
2024-08-09	25.06	23.50	2.34	1138829326	Upward Expansion	51	43
2024-08-02	27.27	23.38	5.27	1015180576	Upward Expansion	66	60
2024-07-26	27.86	23.17	3.34	1601364424	Upward Expansion	70	74
2024-07-19	28.51	22.91	3.14	1655883058	Upward Expansion	83	88
2024-07-12	27.37	22.64	-0.30	1328268196	Upward Expansion	76	86
2024-07-05	27.24	22.41	0.84	1794460452	Upward Expansion	82	88
2024-06-28	26.38	22.15	-0.94	1305143614	Upward Expansion	79	82
2024-06-21	26.03	21.93	-3.84	463691856	Upward Expansion	81	80
2024-06-14	25.56	21.72	-3.42	1073874272	Upward Expansion	83	83
2024-06-07	23.75	21.49	-7.93	1301237974	Upward Expansion	65	76
2024-05-31	23.75	21.33	-10.84	1280796288	Upward Expansion	67	78
2024-05-24	24.48	21.15	-11.12	1842340262	Upward Expansion	80	79
2024-05-17	23.21	20.96	-16.17	1217714382	Deceleration	55	47
2024-05-10	23.20	20.80	-13.48	1301500250	Deceleration	52	31
2024-05-03	21.88	20.72	-19.37	780548786	Deceleration	27	14
2024-04-26	21.20	20.72	-19.75	661368848	Deceleration	-16	20
2024-04-19	20.42	20.74	-21.72	679046608	Deceleration	-20	27
2024-04-12	20.52	20.77	-22.97	164648494	Deceleration	-17	25
2024-04-05	20.25	20.80	-23.19	899271454	Deceleration	7	19
2024-03-29	20.71	20.90	-18.13	841004910	Deceleration	18	18
2024-03-22	21.19	20.93	-16.72	893197030	Deceleration	36	19
2024-03-15	21.73	20.94	-12.64	1111429456	Upward Expansion	53	34
2024-03-08	22.46	20.90	-13.60	1450759028	Upward Expansion	60	55
2024-03-01	22.48	20.82	-13.70	2650972914	Upward Expansion	63	70
2024-02-23	22.75	20.74	-16.16	1941616806	Upward Expansion	63	73
2024-02-16	24.04	20.61	-11.34	1846894960	Upward Expansion	87	81
2024-02-09	22.69	20.41	-15.43	1323610024	Upward Expansion	79	65
2024-02-02	21.27	20.29	-17.97	950785844	Balance	51	52
2024-01-26	21.19	20.22	-15.89	882235590	Balance	33	45
2024-01-19	20.63	20.11	-15.15	713831898	Balance	44	40
2024-01-12	21.43	20.01	-12.33	1072288108	Balance	53	44
2024-01-05	20.86	19.90	-11.40	513759862	Balance	45	30
2023-12-29	20.06	19.81	-13.54	507521174	Balance	5	11
2023-12-22	20.55	19.69	-12.99	959824946	Balance	11	15
2023-12-15	20.50	19.53	-18.42	713322166	Balance	16	15
2023-12-08	19.25	19.35	-23.25	599869378	Balance	-1	5
2023-12-01	19.87	19.22	-22.62	689685654	Rotation Down	15	12
2023-11-24	19.80	19.04	-22.99	752419102	Rotation Down	-18	29
2023-11-17	18.73	18.92	-26.89	636236548	Rotation Down	-21	36
2023-11-10	18.72	18.86	-26.85	612613386	Deceleration	-20	33
2023-11-03	18.30	18.82	-28.56	749485626	Deceleration	-6	25
2023-10-27	18.82	18.78	-27.16	999308658	Deceleration	10	17
2023-10-20	18.61	18.73	-26.63	769469188	Deceleration	17	15
2023-10-13	20.70	18.71	-24.98	982331394	Upward Expansion	45	32
2023-10-06	21.99	18.64	-24.22	1266934466	Upward Expansion	62	46

Price vs TrendAbove+2.8%

Trend directionRising+11.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+42.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-26.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+18.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-4.1%

Price momentumPositive+35.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.19×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

5 / ±100

-19.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

14 /100

-15.9 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

EREGL Directional State ↗ EREGL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance57

Rotation Up18

Upward Expansion41

Deceleration84

Rotation Down37

Downward Expansion35

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 18%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 36%Deceleration 22%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 14%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-08-21	2026-09-25	Developing	-1.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-08-14	Established	+14.8%
Deceleration	2026-04-03	2026-04-17	New	+9.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-03-27	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2026-02-06	2026-03-13	Developing	-2.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-01-30	Developing	+18.2%
Rotation Down	2025-11-21	2025-12-19	Developing	+1.8%
Balance	2025-10-31	2025-11-14	New	-13.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-11	2025-10-24	Established	+0.3%
Rotation Up	2025-06-27	2025-07-04	New	+7.4%
Balance	2025-05-16	2025-06-20	Developing	+6.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-24	2025-05-09	Established	+2.9%
Balance	2024-11-15	2025-01-17	Developing	-8.3%
Deceleration	2024-08-23	2024-11-08	Developing	+5.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing11

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution73

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus XU100.IS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 24/100
Current Relative Strength: 18.28
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +35.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +33.7%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 40th percentile5 in cohort

Test EREGL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.34×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.19×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore EREGL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TRY 37.74falling

Slow Activity TRY 38.56rising

Trend Reference TRY 36.70+2.8% close margin

Current Fair Value TRY 26.58+42.0% close margin

Structural low TRY 27.01shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +7.3%

Annualized volatility +37.2%

From structural high -15.6%

From structural low +60.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs XU100.IS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	+3.8%-15.3% to +20.3%	+68.8%	+68.8%	+3.2%	+43.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+7.3%-23.7% to +39.2%	+62.5%	+62.5%	+4.5%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+15.2%-12.2% to +69.6%	+85.7%	+85.7%	-19.4%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+36.8%+10.9% to +67.5%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-7.2%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

EREGL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map