Weekly structural research · TAI · Consumer Cyclical

8442 Stage Analysis

WW Holding Inc.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close TWD 45.90Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 8−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 21/100directional strength

Maturity 82/100lifecycle context

Confidence 42/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -42.5%TWD 79.86 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	45.90	45.94	-42.51	203031	Downward Expansion	8	21
2026-09-25	44.45	46.53	-44.98	202001	Downward Expansion	2	21
2026-09-18	46.20	47.27	-43.10	149000	Downward Expansion	9	30
2026-09-11	45.75	47.99	-43.63	202027	Downward Expansion	5	25
2026-09-04	45.55	48.76	-45.63	244350	Downward Expansion	-7	14
2026-08-28	45.30	49.56	-46.91	71000	Downward Expansion	-28	28
2026-08-21	44.02	50.40	-48.23	221000	Downward Expansion	-59	50
2026-08-14	41.06	51.30	-53.35	21000	Downward Expansion	-72	63
2026-08-07	41.62	52.34	-52.11	34000	Downward Expansion	-55	44
2026-07-31	41.48	53.29	-52.05	50050	Downward Expansion	-52	38
2026-07-24	43.26	54.22	-51.55	103111	Downward Expansion	-41	34
2026-07-17	45.00	55.05	-49.49	143000	Downward Expansion	-46	44
2026-07-10	45.50	55.85	-52.96	0	Downward Expansion	-51	53
2026-07-03	42.95	56.77	-57.90	538480	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-06-26	40.50	57.72	-59.24	727050	Downward Expansion	-67	77
2026-06-19	40.30	58.60	-61.91	274000	Downward Expansion	-70	86
2026-06-12	40.20	59.54	-60.86	758123	Downward Expansion	-71	85
2026-06-05	41.55	60.58	-61.19	808141	Downward Expansion	-68	84
2026-05-29	39.95	61.58	-63.21	631028	Downward Expansion	-83	83
2026-05-22	40.50	62.57	-61.38	520095	Downward Expansion	-88	75
2026-05-15	41.20	63.40	-60.52	1233684	Downward Expansion	-93	76
2026-05-08	50.40	64.41	-53.13	250204	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2026-05-01	50.00	65.14	-51.23	286171	Downward Expansion	-72	73
2026-04-24	49.95	65.85	-52.15	339000	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2026-04-17	52.20	66.69	-48.02	288015	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2026-04-10	50.70	67.38	-48.40	88080	Downward Expansion	-84	94
2026-04-03	51.70	68.30	-43.83	186032	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2026-03-27	54.00	69.13	-43.25	336209	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2026-03-20	54.10	69.69	-44.82	744349	Downward Expansion	-96	95
2026-03-13	63.00	70.41	-36.69	473083	Downward Expansion	-80	81
2026-03-06	63.50	70.86	-37.59	430195	Downward Expansion	-81	76
2026-02-27	66.80	71.14	-38.66	375000	Balance	-64	57
2026-02-13	67.80	71.27	-35.39	109049	Balance	-57	44
2026-02-06	68.70	71.49	-31.71	194764	Balance	-40	20
2026-01-30	69.60	71.77	-32.19	423261	Balance	-23	12
2026-01-23	70.40	72.08	-31.90	307030	Balance	-18	11
2026-01-16	71.00	72.33	-30.75	371110	Balance	-20	11
2026-01-09	72.30	72.46	-27.52	287250	Downward Expansion	-25	13
2026-01-02	70.30	72.52	-28.03	207040	Downward Expansion	-47	27
2025-12-26	69.20	72.71	-27.90	106069	Downward Expansion	-49	25
2025-12-19	68.10	73.00	-27.61	225052	Downward Expansion	-56	25
2025-12-12	69.00	73.39	-28.66	270140	Downward Expansion	-43	22
2025-12-05	73.20	73.80	-24.46	602103	Downward Expansion	-30	19
2025-11-28	71.40	73.88	-26.06	185098	Downward Expansion	-50	30
2025-11-21	67.00	74.10	-28.12	236843	Downward Expansion	-64	38
2025-11-14	68.50	74.35	-29.74	728510	Downward Expansion	-59	34
2025-11-07	71.50	74.50	-28.05	233036	Downward Expansion	-55	42
2025-10-31	71.50	74.57	-30.22	439307	Downward Expansion	-57	54
2025-10-24	69.50	75.12	-31.11	315250	Downward Expansion	-59	64
2025-10-17	65.60	75.73	-35.05	634064	Downward Expansion	-80	72
2025-10-10	71.30	76.65	-30.13	125034	Downward Expansion	-58	49
2025-10-03	72.30	77.60	-28.47	161100	Downward Expansion	-54	38
2025-09-26	71.30	78.53	-26.90	334228	Downward Expansion	-58	29
2025-09-19	75.10	79.48	-23.75	447000	Downward Expansion	-31	15
2025-09-12	73.00	80.42	-26.26	507001	Downward Expansion	-41	21
2025-09-05	78.40	81.25	-18.45	539856	Downward Expansion	-25	13
2025-08-29	76.50	81.79	-20.15	575119	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2025-08-22	70.90	82.30	-25.05	733000	Downward Expansion	-69	43
2025-08-15	75.60	82.83	-22.53	524230	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2025-08-08	76.60	83.21	-21.12	620097	Downward Expansion	-58	53
2025-08-01	71.80	83.86	-24.72	319439	Downward Expansion	-68	71
2025-07-25	70.60	84.65	-26.25	685491	Downward Expansion	-76	56
2025-07-18	74.40	85.51	-22.80	941001	Downward Expansion	-64	38
2025-07-11	77.19	86.25	-18.07	982048	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2025-07-04	79.04	86.89	-15.63	954413	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2025-06-27	77.75	87.44	-17.50	725650	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2025-06-20	74.79	88.04	-19.13	921378	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2025-06-13	74.33	88.75	-20.20	543299	Downward Expansion	-67	47
2025-06-06	75.99	89.69	-17.47	429010	Deceleration	-51	36
2025-05-30	77.75	90.51	-14.95	258000	Deceleration	-47	36
2025-05-23	79.78	91.32	-14.42	372012	Downward Expansion	-47	39
2025-05-16	81.44	92.04	-13.93	830510	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2025-05-09	75.53	92.70	-17.16	725013	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2025-05-02	78.02	93.63	-14.58	541025	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2025-04-25	74.51	94.51	-15.19	489010	Downward Expansion	-75	87
2025-04-18	72.95	95.53	-15.56	535006	Downward Expansion	-85	88
2025-04-11	73.78	96.56	-15.66	1445471	Downward Expansion	-85	78
2025-04-04	87.72	97.60	-8.76	281070	Balance	-63	43
2025-03-28	87.90	98.15	-10.33	901585	Balance	-52	29
2025-03-21	93.26	98.59	-7.89	1008501	Rotation Up	-21	13
2025-03-14	99.72	98.86	-0.87	727005	Rotation Up	18	27
2025-03-07	100.18	98.97	-3.37	658635	Rotation Up	20	30
2025-02-28	99.72	98.96	-6.30	319074	Downward Expansion	17	27
2025-02-21	103.42	98.94	-6.08	634020	Downward Expansion	1	16
2025-02-14	97.88	98.75	-9.24	526048	Downward Expansion	-36	26
2025-02-07	94.64	98.85	-13.81	199000	Downward Expansion	-61	63
2025-01-24	91.78	98.90	-16.94	375133	Downward Expansion	-63	71
2025-01-17	86.80	99.29	-20.55	870000	Downward Expansion	-81	81
2025-01-10	87.07	99.92	-20.25	1097146	Downward Expansion	-83	65
2025-01-03	96.03	100.54	-12.12	346161	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2024-12-27	95.57	100.96	-14.20	196325	Downward Expansion	-60	43
2024-12-20	96.49	101.40	-10.81	171000	Downward Expansion	-57	50
2024-12-13	96.49	101.68	-13.12	257106	Downward Expansion	-59	62
2024-12-06	96.49	102.03	-14.27	134428	Downward Expansion	-61	68
2024-11-29	95.57	102.40	-11.84	476510	Downward Expansion	-67	66
2024-11-22	95.57	102.86	-14.75	273781	Downward Expansion	-70	62
2024-11-15	96.03	103.16	-14.15	684001	Balance	-71	53
2024-11-08	102.49	103.51	-11.62	299240	Balance	-46	27
2024-11-01	100.65	103.60	-10.36	335567	Balance	-42	24
2024-10-25	102.03	104.02	-11.46	260475	Balance	-33	19
2024-10-18	101.57	104.26	-12.47	343000	Balance	-33	16
2024-10-11	101.11	104.33	-10.65	384087	Balance	-30	12
2024-10-04	103.42	104.43	-6.18	261050	Balance	-8	9
2024-09-27	104.34	104.43	-7.47	587253	Balance	11	12
2024-09-20	105.26	104.54	-3.83	310001	Balance	-4	11
2024-09-13	103.88	104.53	-3.24	590307	Balance	-19	14
2024-09-06	104.80	104.34	-0.78	1467732	Balance	-19	13
2024-08-30	104.34	104.00	-4.75	943418	Balance	-24	15
2024-08-23	101.24	103.57	-6.91	195025	Balance	-34	16
2024-08-16	101.24	103.23	-7.53	411024	Balance	-10	10
2024-08-09	103.01	102.83	-1.88	1132341	Rotation Down	-23	20
2024-08-02	99.92	102.39	-5.31	379623	Rotation Down	-29	40
2024-07-26	99.03	101.98	-8.04	290017	Rotation Down	-31	50
2024-07-19	97.71	101.77	-12.10	417000	Rotation Down	-29	48
2024-07-12	100.80	101.59	-13.23	1036677	Deceleration	-16	33
2024-07-05	96.38	101.56	-15.65	1380752	Deceleration	-10	18
2024-06-28	103.45	101.26	-7.33	699263	Deceleration	16	9
2024-06-21	105.66	101.07	-6.00	419049	Deceleration	34	19
2024-06-14	105.66	100.66	-2.60	734602	Deceleration	46	23
2024-06-07	108.76	99.72	3.57	545087	Deceleration	53	29
2024-05-31	108.76	98.66	7.30	669337	Deceleration	53	29
2024-05-24	104.78	97.67	1.93	463723	Deceleration	39	24
2024-05-17	106.99	96.65	5.81	608137	Deceleration	39	25
2024-05-10	107.43	95.49	9.30	1213816	Deceleration	42	27
2024-05-03	109.64	94.40	13.99	921100	Deceleration	59	34
2024-04-26	104.34	93.25	10.19	561151	Upward Expansion	54	37
2024-04-19	106.55	92.23	16.45	1406120	Upward Expansion	57	45
2024-04-12	105.22	91.10	8.93	1441110	Upward Expansion	58	48
2024-04-05	113.18	90.11	19.88	1587075	Upward Expansion	77	60
2024-03-29	109.20	88.80	16.52	3104497	Upward Expansion	73	58
2024-03-22	103.89	87.44	11.67	715896	Upward Expansion	63	74
2024-03-15	103.89	86.23	15.07	864256	Upward Expansion	65	81
2024-03-08	103.45	84.99	14.26	1228844	Upward Expansion	66	81
2024-03-01	107.87	83.80	24.79	2233417	Upward Expansion	82	84
2024-02-23	104.78	82.57	22.18	6205112	Upward Expansion	80	71
2024-02-16	98.15	81.41	16.88	1032772	Upward Expansion	68	45
2024-02-09	94.61	80.47	16.52	514176	Deceleration	60	37
2024-02-02	91.52	79.54	13.57	1924419	Deceleration	42	28
2024-01-26	91.07	78.66	14.03	613177	Deceleration	38	25
2024-01-19	89.31	77.79	14.24	866000	Deceleration	41	29
2024-01-12	89.75	77.01	16.35	852284	Upward Expansion	44	35
2024-01-05	87.45	76.22	13.61	1089249	Upward Expansion	59	50
2023-12-29	92.84	75.61	18.02	1348049	Upward Expansion	63	58
2023-12-22	92.40	74.80	20.12	3819837	Upward Expansion	66	74
2023-12-15	99.92	74.10	29.91	4543936	Upward Expansion	88	95
2023-12-08	87.27	73.19	16.00	3147680	Upward Expansion	68	87
2023-12-01	97.71	72.55	29.87	3496852	Upward Expansion	96	97
2023-11-24	93.28	71.42	25.84	5298037	Upward Expansion	95	92
2023-11-17	77.55	70.46	5.67	426119	Upward Expansion	68	64
2023-11-10	76.93	69.97	8.19	1041705	Upward Expansion	67	49
2023-11-03	79.02	69.66	12.20	822999	Upward Expansion	81	53
2023-10-27	74.37	69.30	8.08	509885	Upward Expansion	61	42
2023-10-20	72.00	69.15	2.50	390848	Upward Expansion	59	43
2023-10-13	74.80	69.14	4.17	335518	Upward Expansion	65	65
2023-10-06	75.33	69.07	6.60	455396	Upward Expansion	72	77
2023-09-29	73.75	68.96	5.59	228628	Upward Expansion	64	75

Price vs TrendBelow-0.1%

Trend directionFalling-15.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-42.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+5.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-42.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+15.4%

Price momentumNegative-11.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.17×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

8 / ±100

+15.2 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

21 /100

+7.1 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

8442 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance44

Rotation Up48

Upward Expansion42

Deceleration30

Rotation Down16

Downward Expansion43

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 11%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 53%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-03-06	2026-10-02	Extended	-27.7%
Balance	2026-01-16	2026-02-27	Developing	-5.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-13	2026-01-09	Extended	-2.7%
Deceleration	2025-05-30	2025-06-06	New	-2.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-05-23	Developing	+8.1%
Balance	2025-03-28	2025-04-04	New	-0.2%
Rotation Up	2025-03-07	2025-03-21	New	-6.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-22	2025-02-28	Established	+4.3%
Balance	2024-08-16	2024-11-15	Established	-5.1%
Rotation Down	2024-07-19	2024-08-09	New	+5.4%
Deceleration	2024-05-03	2024-07-12	Developing	-8.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-02-16	2024-04-26	Developing	+6.3%
Deceleration	2024-01-19	2024-02-09	New	+5.9%
Upward Expansion	2023-09-22	2024-01-12	Established	+23.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing79

Stage 2 · Advancing11

Stage 3 · Distribution15

Stage 4 · Declining89

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 6/100
Current Relative Strength: -42.51
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -11.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -60.0%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 2th percentile129 in cohort

Test 8442 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.69×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.17×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 8442 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 45.53rising

Slow Activity TWD 44.24falling

Trend Reference TWD 45.94-0.1% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 79.86-42.5% close margin

Structural low TWD 38.90shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.2%

Annualized volatility +36.1%

From structural high -38.4%

From structural low +18.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	23	+1.0%-20.1% to +19.1%	+56.5%	+43.5%	-3.0%	+82.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	-3.6%-25.5% to +14.6%	+37.5%	+62.5%	-15.4%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-12.9%-41.6% to +29.6%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-23.4%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+38.8%-25.3% to +102.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+40.3%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

8442 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map